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I have short on for GBPCHF, anyone has any close support other than 1.9620?

 

Today has been very tight despite the important news coming out. Is there any reason for this action?

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Next area of interest we got resides a figure further down the ladder torero.

 

9510-30 has vibrated (ahead of 1.94) all the way back to early Jan.

 

Not sure what you mean by 'tight'? It's (Cable) only 30 odd pips shy of it's avg daily range. If you're referring to the general scenario out there, then I guess some of that reluctance will be down to fresh credit-crunch jitters entering the arena again on the back of the State Street conf call earlier.

 

Players began booking profits on one or two of the crosses, which blanketed the Euro. Yen crosses especially have been impacted. Still, it'll open up when spec & fast money accounts follow thru on any nervy breakout shifts, such as the one unfolding on Cable.

 

It will be reserved to specific pairs & dependant on levels.

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I have short on for GBPCHF, anyone has any close support other than 1.9620?

 

Today has been very tight despite the important news coming out. Is there any reason for this action?

 

 

G'day Torero... support on GBPCHF support below 9620 is pretty sparse given it's multi-year lows. I'd start basing my support levels off of daily ranges and pivot-based levels (daily and weekly pivot S/R levels). Otherwise, you have to go WAAAAY back in time to find charts that will give you references to support zones.

 

I think the more important news (CPI) coming out tomorrow is containing price action today on the yen crosses. I suspect if CPI increases in accordance with consensus, there may be some yen selling going on (if only temporarily). A response similar to what happened with PPI today wouldn't surprise me. But ultimately, unless the Fed starts to talk up the dollar with stiffer hawkishness, I can't see a dollar rally taking away too much from yen strength.

 

BTW, I won't trade this idea unless the bigger dogs do so first. Have two plans of action, and follow the one that best matches reality. Profitability in this game is all about being a reasonably good (and aggressive) sheep. You want to be as close to the leader sheep as possible. Too close or too far from the leader, and the wolves will gladly pick you off.

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Apparently my target didn't even make it to 1.9620 before it went the other way and hit my stop. I had a small position on since I saw GBPUSD was not doing much except going the other way, which I didn't like that too much. Thanks, guys.

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Apologies torero, I got my ninety sixes all tangled up :o

 

Gave you the chatter on the wrong pair..

 

Yeah, as Cowpip say's the long range defense on that pair is a little sparce. A case of respecting the close quarter levels (hourly & sub hourly reaction lows) if you're intending chasing it back & forth on the lower time frames.

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You want to be as close to the leader sheep as possible. Too close or too far from the leader, and the wolves will gladly pick you off.

 

Either the wolves or a severely confused Andre....that's if he can remember which pair he's supposed to be hammering :haha:

 

Hey Cary,

 

My brother informs me your buddy (Jack) is trading out of Hawaii these days? I assume he’s rolling FX?

 

Is he being bankrolled by Frank Pooley’s outfit in Honolulu? Buk didn’t elaborate or say as much.

 

Good for him, he must have caught Big Frankie on a good day. He’s a miserable son of a bitch at the best of times.

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Apparently my target didn't even make it to 1.9620 before it went the other way and hit my stop. I had a small position on since I saw GBPUSD was not doing much except going the other way, which I didn't like that too much. Thanks, guys.

 

Sorry to hear that, Torero. The saving grace is the small size, which was wise (imo) considering the whippy nature of price at those levels. Price is quite "springy" down there, isn't it?

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My brother informs me your buddy (Jack) is trading out of Hawaii these days? I assume he’s rolling FX?

 

G'day, Anna!

 

Yep, he's still rolling FX. He hasn't been able to roll full-time though, until now. He just arrived (this week, in fact) and has picked out a nice place to stay with an ocean view while he rolls his coins. I'm not sure of the other details you've asked about. He's quite excited about it all.

 

I'd be packing up and choosing a shack somewhere warmer too, but my kids would mutiny! I won't trade family sanity for scenery (at least, not yet). :doh:

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Prices flopping into Krantzy’s lower tier (from post #8) which should now act as a soft ceiling if we get a healthy close into the lower sixes down here.

 

Time to get your 1.94 calling cards located children, playtime is looming!

 

That ceiling will be softer than usual this morning judging by the London boy's reaction to the Merrill news.

 

Aggressive buying on this pair into the open from Mid-East accounts should drive it (& GY in sympathy) thru the layered stops. Intraday specs & fast money stops continuing to get whacked on this 2 way ratcheting.

 

Who'd be a short range player in this environment?

 

Looks like your defenders are out in force this morning Andre. Rain check on the 9400 :cool:

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Aggressive buying on this pair into the open from Mid-East accounts should drive it (& GY in sympathy) thru the layered stops.

 

Looks like your defenders are out in force this morning Andre. Rain check on the 9400 :cool:

 

Well Mr Krantz, I'd much rather have mercurial Mid Eastern compadres stomping point than a raggedy assed russky twitching & balking at the first signs of supply.

 

Successful assault & coverage of 9720 see's the color of 775, otherwise your ceiling holds for now.

 

I couldn't resist posting Jimmy's technical masterpiece here abouts ;) He must have sneaked 2 extra large mugs of caffeine into him as Tokyo stoked up last night (+ he aint a member here, so he can't fight back heheheh).

 

Shame it took place during the Jap doldrums, not a bad little flip even for him!!!!! :)

resistflip.jpg.6bc2ae93277d64a63f42e1b5343b9b9a.jpg

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I couldn't resist posting Jimmy's technical masterpiece here abouts ;) He must have sneaked 2 extra large mugs of caffeine into him as Tokyo stoked up last night (+ he aint a member here, so he can't fight back heheheh).

 

 

You best watch your step cowboy, Jimmy has a buddy on here who just happens to pack a little (moderator) muscle!!

 

Aint that right torero? ;)

 

He's equipped to fire your ass directly to the sin bin for a stretch if you go disrespecting his buddy in public :o

 

Besides, that flip is still floating & registering profits, headed for his upper reaction level as we speak!

 

See how this current hourly bar plays out on that ugly old Cable. You might have some more defending to do at the days lows yet mister!

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Successful assault & coverage of 9720 see's the color of 775, otherwise your ceiling holds for now.

 

You boy's got your 775, time for a smoke now ahead of our (U.S) inflation numbers.

 

Yen Bulls getting repelled at those sub 100.75 stops for now. NY appetites might be a little juicy for those along with that batch atop 9850 on your Cable upline.

 

See those French windbags cackling to the wires again this morning as EU blows thru 5875. Do they seriously suppose we're as stupid as them?? :o

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I couldn't resist posting Jimmy's technical masterpiece here abouts ;) He must have sneaked 2 extra large mugs of caffeine into him as Tokyo stoked up last night (+ he aint a member here, so he can't fight back heheheh).

 

Shame it took place during the Jap doldrums, not a bad little flip even for him!!!!! :)

 

Keep posting, Andre, I'll just copy and paste PMs to him on fxstreet :haha:

 

Wow, new high for EU again, not surprised it was a matter of time. Been watching the ascending triangle forming since mid-March, now to make a decent entry...

ascend-triangle.jpg.619549f262551241cd95a2725709b2d1.jpg

Edited by torero

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Keep posting, Andre, I'll just copy and paste PMs to him on fxstreet :haha:

 

He's long gone from across there torero, Mr Krantz has him on a tight leash these days :)

 

No, he's a smart fella is Jimmy. I can't hold a candle to his technical ability & that's a fact.

 

He'll be nodding affirmatively when he spies that nice clean graph of yours I'd imagine. He might suggest you bin that weird looking angular line on there, but you'll get a box of candy & triple malt for your horizontal markers for sure ;)

 

Horizontal markers are the bitches britches as he say's :o

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Yeah, I've noticed over the few months that angled trendlines don't hold up too well in forex, mostly horizontal lines, which is what I base most of trading decisions on. It's certainly helpful to have these trendlines from time to time to identify the bias on the direction during consolidation periods such as the chart I posted above.

 

Aren't you all technically skilled in order to trade forex? Or are there elements of fundamental analysis by brainstorming what-if questions (like Bruce Kovner does)?

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Aren't you all technically skilled in order to trade forex? Or are there elements of fundamental analysis by brainstorming what-if questions (like Bruce Kovner does)?

 

He (Andre) just scans the wires every 60 seconds, sweeps up & supplies everyone with luke-warm, piss awful British tea torero.

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Ho ho ho, I’m splitting my goddamn sides here. For chrissakes don’t let Jimmy or that grinnin Irish genius across from me see these couple posts, they'll have me sitting a 20 question tech exam by sun down.

 

torero: yeah, we keep tabs on the main techs across the pairs. Some a little more closer than others. I guess if folks go stomping all over those itty bitty timeframes then they’ll require to be wired into the circuit a little tighter? But generally a 60m+ view will give us all we need.

 

Horizontal grids, an awareness of the key supply-demand zones, a check on the main drivers (fundamental flavors) & an eye on the wires is about all that’s required to feel your way round the table to be honest.

 

Folks have a nasty habit of making life awful difficult for themselves. Analysis overload? is what it’s termed as?

 

Mr Nuuu Yaaaark (Kovner) made a whole lot of his dough on the back of “stupid governments & clueless central bank bandits” & he aint wrong there. There’s still a lot of dough to be made from that particular quarter, believe you me.

 

As long as we got clueless half wits running the treasuries/finance streams & major trade floors out there, they’ll be a dollar to be made. Particularly if they’re Russian bank desks or high agg spec operators :)

 

I had to get that one in Gregorvy!!!!....just waiting to be tagged LOL.

 

Blowfish: we're quite partial to your John Smiths & Wherry Ale. Anna & a couple of the girls cook their grey cells with the Irish Cider & Black stuff, but on the whole it's very palatable :)

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Hope you’re still positioned to the short side Mr Sledge?

 

Prices flopping into Krantzy’s lower tier (from post #8) which should now act as a soft ceiling if we get a healthy close into the lower sixes down here.

 

Counter bids unusually light at the 650-80 huh Annie Oakley? Those pirates talk a lot of shit at times.

 

(weak) Russian lethargy if you ask me, that + EU/GB hot thru .8025

 

See how much reliance on that the Pound bears are likely to stomach.

 

Time to get your 1.94 calling cards located children, playtime is looming!

 

 

Sorry for my delay here- a few "Life issues" cropped up in the last 48 hours. Yes sir, working shorts when I can get in on the high side. But have been having some good fortune taking the longs on the pump-ups also. Love this market- can win no matter which direction you favor!

Edited by Sledge

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have been having some good fortune taking the longs on the pump-ups also.

 

You sure will have today that's for sure. Soon as 775 consolidated, the shorts ran for cover & fired off those close quarter stops thru 9850.

 

Fleet of foot the name of the game (again) if transacting Cable this week :)

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Fleet of foot the name of the game (again) if transacting Cable this week :)

 

Heh, and when is it not? :o

 

One of these days I'll actually understand all of the lingo trading. It was a good read with Art, Anna and yourself. But I think I got a bit lost back there- I'll catch up! ;)

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$/Jap just popped thru heavy (technical) stops at the much touted 102.75 for 103 torero. A lot of desks have been primed on that number past couple sessions.

 

Crosses will attract 'sympathy' accompanyment, especially GBPJPY. For extra confirmation on that pair; see Sterling strength (Cable & EURGBP).

 

EURJPY has been well bid all the way through the pipe into late NY trade, knocking on from very heavy appreciation (stops) thru the key 161.50 ceiling.

 

Just take a looky at your technical graph re; the EY, that tells you all you need to know regards that baby.

 

 

Now, if I could just drag that pain in the ass vsa thread stirrer & the rest of those bandits out of the bars, we might earn a few more commissions before the day's out :)

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    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
    • Date: 16th April 2024. Market News – Stocks and currencies sell off; USD up. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks and currencies sell off, while the US Dollar picks up haven flows. Treasuries yields spiked again to fresh 2024 peaks before paring losses into the close, post, the stronger than expected retail sales eliciting a broad sell off in the markets. Rates surged as the data pushed rate cut bets further into the future with July now less than a 50-50 chance. Wall Street finished with steep declines led by tech. Stocks opened in the green on a relief trade after Israel repulsed the well advertised attack from Iran on Sunday. But equities turned sharply lower and extended last week’s declines amid the rise in yields. Investor concerns were intensified as Israel threatened retaliation. There’s growing anxiety over earnings even after a big beat from Goldman Sachs. UK labor market data was mixed, as the ILO unemployment rate unexpectedly lifted, while wage growth came in higher than anticipated – The data suggests that the labor market is catching up with the recession. Mixed messages then for the BoE. China grew by 5.3% in Q1 however the numbers are causing a lot of doubts over sustainability of this growth. The bounce came in the first 2 months of the year. In March, growth in retail sales slumped and industrial output decelerated below forecasts, suggesting challenges on the horizon. Today: Germany ZEW, US housing starts & industrial production, Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson speech, BOE Bailey speech & IMF outlook. Earnings releases: Morgan Stanley and Bank of America. Financial Markets Performance:   The US Dollar rallied to 106.19 after testing 106.25, gaining against JPY and rising to 154.23, despite intervention risk. Yen traders started to see the 160 mark as the next Resistance level. Gold surged 1.76% to $2386 per ounce amid geopolitical risks and Chinese buying, even as the USD firmed and yields climbed. USOIL is flat at $85 per barrel. Market Trends:   Breaks of key technical levels exacerbated the sell off. Tech was the big loser with the NASDAQ plunging -1.79% to 15,885 while the S&P500 dropped -1.20% to 5061, with the Dow sliding -0.65% to 37,735. The S&P had the biggest 2-day sell off since March 2023. Nikkei and ASX lost -1.9% and -1.8% respectively, and the Hang Seng is down -2.1%. European bourses are down more than -1% and US futures are also in the red. CTA selling tsunami: “Just a few points lower CTAs will for the first time this year start selling in size, to add insult to injury, we are breaking major trend-lines in equities and the gamma stabilizer is totally gone.” Short term CTA threshold levels are kicking in big time according to GS. Medium term is 4873 (most important) while the long term level is at 4605. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
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