Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Recommended Posts

Hi guys,

 

Just checked the economic schedule for tomorrow. From what I see the rate is schedule to be released at 8:30am ET. Is it me or it's not the normal hour right? Looks like USD, CAD, EUR and GBP will all have their own news. This is probably the first time since started trading currencies I've seen so much news coincided at the same time. Was this intentional?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi torero,

 

We got UK rates showing as midday London, EU as 12.45 London & the statement at 13.30 (as usual).

 

Stateside Trade Balance/Unempl Claims are twinned alongside the Canadian Trade numbers, but that's the only dual print I got on my radar today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The data schedule must be wrong then. Seems nothing is moving.... hmmm.

 

Changing the subject here a bit. I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself? The Brits I'm sure are kicking themselves for not having joined the Euro currency or am I assuming too much?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The pound has being weak for a while. The only currency it seems relatively strong against is the $. Perhaps its fairer to say the $ is "more weak". I have to say it is starting to concern me as most of my assets are in sterling. One of our major mortgage lenders announced yesterday that housing prices dropped 2.5% last month, the largest drop in 15 years, no surprise there. Of course the rate cut was pretty much anticipated and I would have guessed priced in. Worrying times and I think I should be paying closer attention to what the currencies are doing on a broader scale.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the real estate market has been the backbone of the growth in Spain but when it's been deflating faster than expected because most don't take into account the GBP being so weak against the €, so the big percentage of tourism and demand from the Brits have been unaccounted for. So everyone is using the word "crisis" already. This is the reason why I'm asking whether the Brits are now tempted to go US or Eastern Europe for holidays rather than the Eurozone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I know USD has been the only one taking beating against other currencies. Seems the GBP has been hit hard as well. Is there growing sentiment against the UK economy and the currency itself?

 

The Kingdom aren't in such a bad state of health really torero.

 

Both sets of economies (U.S & UK) are attempting to juggle & balance 2 very real threats to their respective forward book levels: Inflation & growth.

 

Those twin conflicts will cause awful turbulence as one attempts to wrestle priority from the other. Trouble is, both rank as pretty major soothsayers.

 

The credit crunch has simply magnified & added to the problem. Sure, UK has it’s internal conflicts to damp down, property valuations being one of them, but that was a balloon ready to deflate even a couple yrs back.

 

It’ll re-calibrate itself & the Treasury will come through it relatively stable. In the meantime speculators will feed from the trough, which is exactly what they’re primed to do.

 

The Chief Bank have got themselves a half decent management team in old Merv King & his merry gang of bandits.

 

Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know.

 

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Currencies, as with most classes, find their own fair value levels. When the sterling is good & done flushing thru the pipe, it’ll let us know.

 

Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into. The volatility is also opening the ranges v/s other pairs too, as the respective economies blow-off against each other.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out ;)

 

That's the thing right there Annie Oakley. Absorb enough of the outlying to add a little flavor to the pot. Too much spice & you kill the dish ;)

 

Folks need to be mindful of overdosing on both technical as well as fundamental diets.

 

It's all very well understanding & appreciating the complexities of these economic scenarios - but you got to know how you're going to actually trade that info.

 

Not such an easy transition for most.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Till then, ratchet it back & forth along it’s range boundaries & let the powers that be worry bout sailing the economic ship!

 

There are some very clear & tradeable levels on the Pound (v/s the buck) to get stuck into.

 

All good food for the speculator & those prepared to cast their lines out ;)

 

The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

 

Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

 

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

F625.jpg.6523df5bf356c2f688093fde9725782e.jpg

F626.jpg.62d7a841c5e42a7eadfb19fdabae4969.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. This next 2nd to 2nd quarter could well require a lower tier insert before too long me thinks.

 

Oh I don't doubt that Arty, I don't doubt that at all. But, along with one or two others, that pair has got a little crowded & cramped inside current range boundaries. Stops have been tripping over each other left & right.

 

EURGBP has been the far less stressful option to engage Sterling combat.

 

"Confucius he say: “if prices resemble avalanche on mountain path, retrace steps & walk smoother road"

 

Don't ya just love that old fella :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ha ha! Funny quote!

 

I've been dabbing with GBPCHF and seems to move a bit better (smaller timeframes, not sure what frames you guys trade from). Lots of spunk. For last few months, this baby has seen some real action, big drops. That's why I asked about GBP or is it the CHF that's seeing strength?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yeah, he's so sharp he'll end up slicing a chunk out of himself if he aint careful torero :o

 

We don't really have occasion to drill down (observe) into anything smaller than a 240 very often to be honest. The bigger windows tend to offer clearer views of the ball game if you get my drift.

 

Anna-Maria will have a little game of tag on a sub hourly every so often if a real juicy Grade A opp presents itself, but it's a minority play.

 

Pound is an easy sell v/s it's close cousins, as you're witnessing via your technical maps. Swiss was an underperformer coming into 08 & is merely playing catch up. The global fall-out isn't doing it any harm, but it has it's own internal fundamentals to address.

 

It requires (along with all the others) close inspection as it buffers the technical reaction levels, as players will be eyeing the "next tasty treat". EUR is currently whipping it back off it's 3 year range pitch with that big weekly retreat during March.

 

Just keep noting your strong v/s weak hit list, & position yourself accordingly (if you roll your trades on?). I wouldn't know what advice to offer on an intra-day perspective as we simply don't sing to that tune.

 

I guess your technical map (levels from the big frames) will tell you which zone of activity is bossing the flows as players lighten up & head to the sidelines for a better guage.

 

Nothing changes as liquidation goes thru it's motions. The fast money will get checked out & the real flows will pick up the slack.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Since I only play the small timeframes the technicals is all I need (except for news time) but am interested in the behind the scene policies that affect these currencies in the higher timeframes. It seems the $ has been pushing off 1.59 three times on 240-min charts. Interesting how well it can fend it off again next week. I'm still leaning on the resistance being broken (ascending triangle forming on 240-min). Thanks all for the insight, nice breath of fresh air to see what the big guys are thinking.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

folks, have you got any preferences , trading forex or currency futures(regulated on CME), could you recommend any sound brokers.

 

also do any of you use futuresbetting, understand the company based in Gibraltar, has gone into liquidation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry bearbull, I'm not familiar with spreadbetting and futuresbetting orgs in UK or Gibraltar. All of my accounts are in US as I'm more familiar with their laws and consumer rights. I trade forex, not currency futures, just because there are more pairs to trade from than futures. Brownsfan and a few others do trade currency futures. They trade the most popular and liquid so no sense in trading forex right? I think futures are a bit cheaper on the commission side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm afraid we can't assist either Bearbull, sorry. We don't trade futures.

 

We execute via Prime Broker streams, so I can't help regards retail outlets either.

 

I know Anna has come across folks operating through HotspotFXi & London Cap. If you're looking at playing the cash, you might want to give them a holler? She'll be back in the office later, I'll send her in here to confirm.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Art, Milliard, and Anna-Marie-

Thank you for the commentary, since I tend to trade the GBP/USD these posts confirm my own analysis- thank goodness to be correct along with much more "seasoned" (but not too seasoned) folks! :o

Sledge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm not too sure how much use our far sighted views will be to you Sledge, but I assume (if) you're playing it from the short side off these lower top fades, then you've got the breeze at your back for now.

 

Like Andre mentioned, euro/pound is a decent companion to your Cable trade as Sterling takes on water.

 

Long as you're banking dollars & your risk is in line, then you're heading in the right direction I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Art-

Well I have learned over my trading "career" to look outward from the market (Zooming out to higher timeframe) as you and Anna and Milliard collectively do.

 

For me everything starts with a Daily chart, then a 4 hr. Only drilling down for oil I do is to pinpoint entry or stops. I stopped smacking my head on the 1 minute wall a while back- and boy does it make trades much more rewarding and less stressful!

 

And yes, banking dollars is key that some seem to forget to do. I take what the market gives me. I set a reasonable target-- say that is 100 pips, if it gets to 98 and stalls hard. I bank $ and wait for the next set-up. Some newer traders won't deviate from that 100 pip target and end up with less than my 98- or are really stubborn and let it fall into negative territory because they "KNOW ;-)" it will eventually get to their target. All the while I'm sitting there counting my 98 and planning my next move- while they sweat the trade from hell they have placed themselves in.

 

As you informed Andre, the Bull Armor will have to come out soon, I don't foresee the ability for this to get down to the 1.94 level right now, just doesn't have enough steam behind the down move to get there. Although every retail bucketshop is herding their followers that this badboy is on its way to 1.93 or even 1.85- yikes! As you said next quarter- yes it is a definate possibility, but it will have to rise up to build momentum to plow through that wall of 1.97XX but hey, there are plenty of purchasers for shorts out there for you to folks to sell too.

 

Sledge

Edited by Sledge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You mentioned you focus exclusively on the old Cable Sledge. Is there a specific reason you remain loyal to that grizzly son of a bitch?

 

Sterling has represented pretty neat value selling it via Yen, Euro & especially the Franc.

 

Some real sweet technical zones have been tagged & bagged on those 3 during last quarter. By comparison, & typically - Cable has bucked & snorted like the irksome camel it is.

 

Just curious really.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Milliard-

Well the story goes something like this.

1. Newbie trader gets the bug from a relative that trades currency.

 

2. Newbie begins to demo trade and open about 8 different windows of every currency flavor.

 

3. Newbie trader doesn't realize that each currency has its own "personality" and attempts to trade them all the same. (Ouch!)

 

4. Newbie is drawn to USD/JPY and as soon as nice win comes in- Yen Spanks new trader down to the floor and takes all winnings away.

 

5. Over time and steep learning curve, I get to the point of analysis of my own trades. I create a spreadsheet of what currencies I excel at, and which ones are "not going so well."

 

6. I narrow down the list to the EUR, GBP and CHF

 

7. I then realize that the GBP hours fit the best for my schedule. Since the London market is the Major market for currency and a ton of volume is traded in GBP during the London session it made logical sense. Additionally, I have access to most major "news time" events- I don't trade the news but as an example, yesterday with the rate decision coming out- I was still at home able to make any adjustments necessary before heading off to the day Job. I am also able to get a nice feel from my JOB-EOD (4:30 EST to about 11:00 PM EST) to see how the market played out in NY and what the "lull time" drift is telling me (NY Close until say bedtime.- have to sleep sometime I guess)

 

8. If the lull time is to my liking, I place a trade and let it be ready for the London open.

 

9. To me, the GBP doesn't whip and dip like a CAD or JPY, it is not the flavor of the day currency like the EUR. The AUD and NZD are just not very interesting to me for some reason so I stay away from them. I have never gotten into crosses, but as I am much more seasoned now than before- I may dabble into them. I have not ever traded a cross in all the time I have been trading- maybe time to get familiar with a few.

 

10. Best answer. I can get in with a nice rythem with the GBP, I have a good feel for it and it GENERALLY behaves itself. I agree with you, this month thus far has been a nasty little ride, I have been taking "base hits" much more than making nice "home runs" But it is OK, base hits still put $ in the account and make the trader happy. I told a fellow pound trader that if I only trade GBP for the rest of my life- as long as I'm consistantly making money with it, I'm fine to trade one Currency.

 

More than you wanted to know I'm sure, but there you be. :roll eyes:

Sledge

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's fair enough. If something feels right & you can claw a buck out of it then that's gotta be a positive yeah?

 

If it aint broke, then it don't need fixing ;)

 

Right, we're about 5 hours late out of the door today, so I'll bid you adios & we're off in search of strong beer & even stronger women!!

 

Enjoy your weekend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

:haha: I like that line! have a good weekend!

 

I think I'm liking GBPCHF more and more, rides like a wild buck but it can be nicely rewarding. Now I have 4 favorite pairs, GBPUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY and GBPCHF. I think it's more than enough to keep my eyes busy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's fair enough. If something feels right & you can claw a buck out of it then that's gotta be a positive yeah?

 

If it aint broke, then it don't need fixing ;)

 

Right, we're about 5 hours late out of the door today, so I'll bid you adios & we're off in search of strong beer & even stronger women!!

 

Enjoy your weekend.

 

You do the same! Good luck with that strong woman! ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The range tiers have certainly worked through the rolling year with easy access markers. Looks like it’s setting up for a fire fight back at the big daddy 1.94 zone.

 

Those closing daily lower tops don’t make for a good smoke signal at all. Best get your Bull armour out & clean her down Andre, you ole boys might be in for a skirmish or two at the next full moon!!

 

Hope you’re still positioned to the short side Mr Sledge?

 

Prices flopping into Krantzy’s lower tier (from post #8) which should now act as a soft ceiling if we get a healthy close into the lower sixes down here.

 

Counter bids unusually light at the 650-80 huh Annie Oakley? Those pirates talk a lot of shit at times.

 

(weak) Russian lethargy if you ask me, that + EU/GB hot thru .8025

 

See how much reliance on that the Pound bears are likely to stomach.

 

Time to get your 1.94 calling cards located children, playtime is looming!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This zone (600-50) should put up the last real defense Andre. T'was a continuation step back in Feb & no doubt houses Option traffic.

 

Would prefer a close beneath the round number to be honest, but any weak pop back towards the 680 will attract sellers if it's genuine.

 

What's a few pips between pirates :o

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Similar Content

    • By Jonh Smith
      I searched in google with keywords best forex robot 2019 and in the end I found fxflightproEA from their website fxflightpro.com . if anyone has ever bought, I was interested in their ea. I saw a very small drawdown, and monthly profit looks great.and I see myfxbook profit reaching 50% in 50 days. if there are buy please review here and I say thank you if anyone would like to share here.

      thanks
    • By StraussX
      Hi GUYS, Happy Wednesday!
      I'd like to share daily forex analysis from Followme, hope this information helps your trading.
      Today, Let's focus on AUD and NZD.
      AUDUSD is trading at 0.6761; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6765 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6635. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the descending channel’s upside border. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6825. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6905.
       
      NZDUSD is trading at 0.6447; the instrument is moving below Ichimoku Cloud, thus indicating a descending tendency. The markets could indicate that the price may test the cloud’s downside border at 0.6455 and then resume moving downwards to reach 0.6315. Another signal to confirm further descending movement is the price’s rebounding from the resistance level. However, the scenario that implies further decline may be canceled if the price breaks the cloud’s upside border and fixes above 0.6525. In this case, the pair may continue growing towards 0.6645.
    • By Georgebro8
      So I've been 18 for about 4 months, since I turned 18 I started up an account, and basically thought I was doing amazing because of beginners luck, put in some of my savings and managed to do well, some days I would make £200, one day I even made £900, after time I lost my profits and made a loss as well. I've realised I need to spend the time analysing the market and making technical judgments. I'm trying to read more and spend a lot of my time looking at the charts. is there any advice people can give me. and is making 5% a week a realistic goal to set myself? before anyone assumes that im looking for a get rich quick scheme, im certainly not, I see every loss ive made as a lesson and ensure that I learn from each mistake I make. 
      any advice about indicators, strategies, how to analyse the market, or even analysing earning reports would help me.
    • By edakad
      Firebird is an indicator to identify the price spikes in the market. Firebird indicator first calculates a 10-period moving average, then shifts this moving average a certain percentage above and below the 10-period moving average. The shifted averages are drawn on chart as the red and green line. When price touches these lines, price spike is identified. Usually after a price spike, the trend reverses for some time. The indicator can be used to take advantage of this price behaviors. In daily chart usually the 10 period MA is shifted by 2 percent to form the price bands. On lower time frames like Hourly, Four Hour a smaller percentage price shift is used like 0.5% . The important consideration here is most of the price bars must be contained within the upper and lower bands.
      When price reaches above the upper red band, a sell position is opened. When price reaches the lower green band, buy position is opened. Trades can be managed with proper stop loss and take profit. In the picture, Firebird indicator is attached to daily chart of EUR/USD with 2% shift on MA. Note that almost all price bars are within the price bands. And when price extends beyond these bands, price trend reverses and comes back into the bands.

      FireBird.zip
  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 29th March 2024. GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long? The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose. The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long? The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario. The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500. Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike. USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains! The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices. The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • MT4 is good and will be good until their parent company keep updating the software, later mt4 users will have to switch to mt5.
    • $SOUN SoundHound AI stock at 5.91 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • $ELEV Elevation Oncology stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ELEV
    • $AVDX AvidXchange stock narrow range breakout watch above 13.32 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AVDX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.