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MC

Fear of losing unbooked profit due to greed and perfectionism...

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I'm hoping the Dr. and/or those of you that had my problems and overcame them can help me out here.

 

I've been in the market just over a year now and have learned an immense amount from giving everything I have mentally to my studies. I watch the market real time from open to close at work where I also am lucky enough to be able to trade as actively as I want. Then I come home and at night and on the weekends and study many MANY more hours (thankfully my Girlfriend is VERY supportive). I've put so much into this thing and I feel I'm approaching the stage of using my edge and becoming profitable but my mind keeps getting in the way. I know there is no substitution for experience which I'm maybe lacking, though I also know where my issues are and can spare trading capital by getting my head right early on. Please here my cry for help. :o

 

 

I have very little gambler in my blood and love a sure thing (AKA greed). I know the market trade for trade is NOT anywhere near a sure thing, though NET profitability can be a sure thing if you set yourself up for it. I also know to gain you have to risk and that many success stories often start with a failure. I know this and know how to get there in concept but my mind won't allow me to execute the plan. I have a profitable system in backward and forward paper testing which is the easy part since paper trading subconsciously is just a game to many, myself included.

 

I execute stop orders no issue and can deal with loss on that level very well. What I can't seem to shake is letting a trade work for me in the face of profit. I get a glimpse of profit and cash out knowing my target probably will be hit without me. I have tried to scale out only to sell the 2nd half right after the 1st half. My system calls for a scalper contract to know I'll book some profit and then a runner with a trailed stop from break even for a chance at the bigger move risk free. BUT...I can never seem to allow myself a shot at the bigger move. I thought the knowing sure profit is waiting would help quench my greed but sadly it hasn't worked for me.

 

I'm a perfectionist which may be a battle deep in my head causing me stress as well. Perhaps I fear being wrong so much that I'll take the quick win of the battle at the expense of winning the war? I do realize consciously I'll rarely if ever hit a home run and that perfection isn't needed to be net profitable, but execution IS needed. At the risk of sounding proud, I think my smarts are actually hurting me. I over think everything deep in my brain despite being able to tell myself to trust my instinct. I know I will gain profitability because if I let winners run live I'd already be well into profit just like I've done paper trading. So it's not a question of if, BUT when. And this is where I hope yall can help this greedy perfectionist out. :o

 

Anyhow, the cliff notes version...

*I suffer from perfectionism and greed.

*I'm smart enough to know what to do consciously and whats broken but now I need help with the sub-conscious to stop hurting my performance.

*I NEED HELP. :helloooo::o

 

Thanks for listening to my rant and I look forward to your insight. I think this is the best trading community on the web and I'm proud to be a part of it.

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I trade in stocks and options, with an intraday to 2 week timeframe, so I may have a different perspective than you do specifically, but here's how I do it.

When I enter a position, I have an entry price, upside exit price, loss tolerance and time frame. If any of those are reached, I am out of the trade. If it's a loss I remove it from my screen for 30 days to avoid wash sale problems. If it's a win or the time is up, I re-evaluate it as if it's a new trade. Usually if I do re-enter it's with less at risk, so I lock in a portion of the profits. If I do not re-enter I avoid watching for a while so I don't second guess myself. Then after a few weeks I'll spend some time trying to determine what I may have missed.

My upside target is normally 2X or 3X higher than my loss tolerance.

 

The technical trading in futures, commodities, and Forex, is outside of my purview and I'll leave it to folks expert in those areas to comment on how they handle your quandary.

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Warning: It’s been awhile since I have posted on ANY forum and may have a tendency to ramble and get a little off topic.

 

Perfectionism…that was, and still is, one of my trading ‘demons’. When I added day trading to my arsenal I soon found myself in the exact position you’re in. I started out as a pure scalper trading all in and out at fixed profits. Of course it didn’t take long to find myself constantly watching the market run while sitting dumbfounded on the sidelines. I then developed trend setups that caught the runs only to give much of it back on choppy (consolidation) days. Being a so called “perfectionist” I was always tweaking my entries and trying to figure out what methods to use when. This, of course, was my analysis paralysis stage brought on by an abundance of indicators.

 

What dragged me out of this stage was the realization of Money Management as a setup. I truly believe that this is the answer to figuring out the whole market conditions mystery for momentum day traders. The facts are simple…on trending days scalpers don’t make as much as position holders and on consolidation days the opposite is true. With money management you can take advantage of both. At the scalpers target take off a large position of the trade. Depending on how much you have left you can move your stops up close to your entry (net breakeven) or to your entry (profit is locked in).

 

Now the big question that MC is having trouble with…what to do with those trailers. At this point in time the trade cannot turn in loser (very important). Either you have locked in profit or you are going to get stopped out with just buying the broker lunch. How aggressive you want to get with you trailers depends on many factors. How many trailers do you have left? How strong is the momentum? What S/R areas are coming up next? For example, if I have more than one car left I would most likely dump one off at the next S/R. If I only have one left I would be looking past that S/R to see if there is anything bigger on the other side (MP Value Area, HOD, LOD, etc).

 

Personally, I do not like the idea of random upside targets or indicator trailing stops. There are two reasons that stand out the most when I see traders cut their trailers short. First, they have yet to lock in some profit. If you want to be a winning trader you have to take profit. Sounds simple but there are surprisingly a large percentage of traders that let winning trades turn into losers on a daily basis. Second, they are watching the market but not truly reading and understand what the market is saying. For the men out there, it is the same as hearing your wife talk but not actually listening to what she is saying…can only end badly.:security:

 

So how do we read the market? I am sure most of you have higher risk “counter-trend” trades or can at least see them. Sometimes it’s just the same setup but on a smaller timeframe. Where will this higher risk trade possibly break? Where do you think it will go? Where is the next support down? At what point does the trend change? This is how I trail my stops. Just like when playing chess, you want to constantly be evaluating the possible moves of your opponent and reevaluate your risk accordingly. This will be different for each individual depending on many variables such as setup, position size, standing for day, etc. For me, I will take profit at the point where I would consider the possibility to take the opposite side. More times than not, at this point price will pullback to a place where I can reevaluate and look at taking another entry into my original direction while limiting my market risk. Depending on the S/R nearby and the momentum/bias of the trade, I will not hesitate to take breakeven after breakeven on the trailers. Many times these trades occur right before the runner.

 

Back to your problem MC. You state that you “fear being wrong so much that I'll take the quick win of the battle”. You are right; this comes directly from your perfectionist personality. I had the same exactly problem at first. But it sounds like you already know what needs to be done. Get yourself in the mindset that taking a breakeven on the trailers is NOT a bad thing IF by your evaluation the trade still said up at the time. A BAD thing would be to exit a once winning trade with a loss. Stop focusing on what could have been and focus on what is. Once you have profit locked into the trade lean back on your chair, take a deep breath, and then start listening to the market. Why did you enter the trade? Is the setup still strong? Can you see signs of wiggling and pausing but still with upward momentum? Keep asking yourself is there a reason to get out? If not then don’t and move stop on trailers up accordingly. Of course there will be times when the market comes back, stops you out, and runs in the right direction. But then again, there will be plenty more times when the market comes back, stops you out, and then tanks.

 

Again, sorry for the rambling and getting a little off topic.

 

CliffsNotes version…

*Don’t just watch the market, read it. Just like you hopefully did when you entered.

*Trailers are there to take advantage of long runs and taking a b/e on them is NOT necessarily a bad thing. Move stops on trailers up according to the first point.

*You know it, just do it. :thumbs up:

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Definitely not ramblings there Hlm. Thanks for all the input and advice so far from you both. :)

 

You're right, I really just need to start doing repetitions of proper execution and turn this into a problem of the past. I'm normally a very systematic and balanced person in all other aspects of life so for me to be emotional is awkward. I think that makes me stress even more and look for the first out so I can stop feeling that emotion. I don't like feeling emotions, perhaps I need to add that to the list of quirks. :o

 

I daytrade the YM off either a 5 minute or 144 tick time frame depending on action. I'm a former skateboarder/rebellious type so I dislike micromanagement yet that's what I'm choosing to do here. :doh:

 

Overall I think my market sense for risk profile and money management are ok. It's just getting some properly executed trades under my belt to ditch the emotional side of things. I have looked at some NLP and hypnosis things and would be open to anything that might make my transition easier and quicker.

 

Again thanks for taking the time to assist me.

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Great post Hlm. I want to add that you might need to refocus your perfectionist ideals from win/loss stats to breakeven/target hit stats. I know it's not easy especially when you have to constantly review your trades and performance but try to overlook the win/loss columns. Instead, focus on the perfecting the profit target placement. Let's say you want to trade the breakout, set the target at the next resistance level that it's almost a sure thing the breakout will reach. So setting objectives are one of the peeves of perfectionists (always making plans and lists), use this as a starter. From there, you can go for targets farther out from your entry, baby steps...

 

 

The other thing is to use 2 exits: the first half of your position take immediate profit. Move the 2nd to break-even (entry point) or breakeven from the entire position. This may help your tally to 0 loss and feed the instant gratification beast and let the 2nd one go.

 

Being a perfectionist also does have its advantage. That is, you become very picky (and should be) with setups. This should put the stats in your favor. Of course, there will be problems with regret of letting a trade that was not perfect but later become a biggie. So remember, every event has a consequence. That is, with every new strategy, there are new beasts that will surprise and hurt your mental toughness, watch for it and good luck.

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Cracking first post HLM.

 

This thread shares much with this one http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f96/analysis-paralysis-and-fear-of-losing-2962.html#post26143 in this very section.

 

Of course the irony is that all we can do is execute perfectly based on how we read the market imperfectly. Narcissism? Nah, but the ego plays its role. Be humble in the market or it will humble you! (quoted from just about every list of 'top trader traits' on the planet).

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The trade yesterday I was up $140 and walked with $50 so it's bitter sweet for now though I'm not going to let 1 trade define my will power.

 

I'm only allowing 2 trades a day to force myself to be very selective.

I just took one and got out for $10 gain despite being up $50.

The key though...I executed again, so though it sucks I've left money on the table these last 2 trades I'm executing and in the long run that will reward me I'm sure. I can either be rewarded a few times for not executing and re-enforce my bad habits or I can break them now and never look back. Yesterdays play honestly could have just as easily kept running and I gave myself a shot at that. When I finally catch and ride a rocket this will all be worth it and will prove net positive.

 

Thanks for the input gang. :cool:

 

Added----

OK, took my 2nd trade and am done for the day.

Net $60 gain.

 

I didn't let the 2nd hit my target so it was not a solid win to me.

And yes, it did go on to hit my friggin target and then some, so the times I don't let the trades work for me I get burned. Fitting and reminds me why I need to keep following the plan. You never know which trade will hit your target so treat each like a winner till stopped out. ;)

 

2 of 3 following the plan is 2 better than I've ever done before so I need to press on here and stay focused with my new comfort level. :D

 

What a difference pivots and my other guides are making. Both trades were shakedowns that I normally would not take due to fear. I saw the key levels and will continue to take high probability trades with sound risk to reward ratios. Some may find this hard to believe but I was sporting 5 point stops on these trades on a 3 minute chart. On the YM that's pretty damn tight but the levels were there and if they failed the reason for being in the trade were void anyhow. No wonder I was failing left and right with no levels or MA's on the chart. I had no road map to help spot entry and targets.

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Wow, it's like reading something I would write about my own problems :o

 

Hlm can attest to this, in the chat everyday I see similar setups that everyone else sees. I take those setups and time and time again I take a quick 1-2pt target and watch it run. Sometimes I get in the zone and have consistent trades that turn out to be very profitable. Then something clicks in my head that I wasn't suppose to do that well, then the emotion and frustration kicks in and I give it all back.

 

A few things I do now that might help or they might not help.

1 - I don't trade the first hour anymore, I let the market set up in this first hour so I can later plot my s/r lines. Yes I have missed some big moves, but I feel better throughout the day.

2 - When I feel emotion taking over or that I might give everything back, I simply walk away for 30 minutes. I do whatever I want that's not related to trading, so I can clear my head. And by saying that emotion is taking over and I might get everything back, this can happen when I'm in a hot streak. I will take several winning trades but continue to take unbooked profits too fast and leave more on the table. When I see price take off without me I tend to get frustrated and my instincts tell me to chase. This might be your case, it might not be but it's something to think about.

 

One thing that hlm said in the chat that stuck out at me was on a rather rough day for him. I was doing great since my scalping mindset was perfect for the choppy day, but he said, "It's not about the money it's about the trading." This really hit me because I realized that I'm always staring at my p&l and thinking about money. I want to run around telling everyone how much cash I just pulled in and that I'm on my way to buying my private jet and Bentley. But if I focus on the money, I'll never get there because I'll want to grab small profits so fast that when a losing trade comes around all that work gets blown out of the water. So instead I need to focus on my trading and analyzing myself, not the money.

 

In my trading plan I have an entire self psychology section dedicated to my perfectionism and overcoming it. Basically instead of analyzing every trade I take, I analyze my emotions at the time, whether or not it was apart of my setup, did I execute and manage the trade properly? This helps so I'm not analyzing the hell out of charts every night (which creates fear the next day because I'm worried about money and missing out on everything) but instead I know what I need to focus on with myself. I know I'm a good trader, I just have to get over a few road blocks to get where I want to be.

 

It's nearly 4 am and I'm sure a lot of that didn't come across as clear as I want. So if you have any questions feel free to ask me. If none of it made sense then I apologize :o

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Great Post james, You are spot on, very much in keeping in with what Mark Douglas outlines in his books on Trading Psychology which is 99% of this business

 

Patience, mindset free from remorse over missing moves, focus on the next trade etc are the key,

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Yes, great post James and glad to hear it.

 

Just remember...

Trade from the charts (wealth and growth), not your PnL (survival). The market only has so much movement to give at any given time. If you have a finely tuned strategy that is consistent and fits your risk tolerance, you can always add another contract if you want more from your PnL.

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That was very clear and helpful James.

 

Luckily I don't chase, and I don't emotionalize hard stops.

What I do is panic at the fear of giving back paper profit and have issues letting the runners do their thing. As a rookie I would have been very profitable in 07 if I didn't have this mental tick. I may actually just move back to scalping since I was profitable at that and try to tame the emotions with stocks or a non leveraged instrument with less to lose. Swing trading has the potential to create alot of money for me so I feel I have to learn to tame these feelings. Hell if not for the money for my own satisfaction. I have 70 stock trades and 55 future trades live so it's no wonder I haven't worked out the kinks yet. I need to keep reminding myself being only a year in and with limited trades I'm at least in the average group if not much higher up on the totem pole.

 

I'm undercapped too...I have $5k so futures are like all my eggs in one basket which exasperates my emotional tick. I'm dialing in though...this should be a profitable year for me...I'm confident of that. :)

 

Thanks for the input. :)

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Wow, you guys gave great advice and I've learned from the seasoned pros here. I enjoyed reading all the relies,and I too have the same trading issues, but when I got to the end, I realized "The Trading Doctor" never replied and gave her professional advice.

Trading Doctor, will you please respond? :confused:

 

Thank you

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Late to the party again, too much to read.

 

Taking instant profits is due to instant gratification that one seeks.

 

Just think back when you were a kid, did you want something right away or did you have the patience to wait for your reward, which might have been twice the amount had you waited.

 

Sitting and letting a trade work for more profits is not easy.

 

You gotta refrain from acting on impulse.

 

Over the years, I have come to realize the elite traders are nothing more than being super aware of their own thoughts and emotions and have the will power not to act on those.

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Late to the party again, too much to read.

 

Taking instant profits is due to instant gratification that one seeks.

 

Just think back when you were a kid, did you want something right away or did you have the patience to wait for your reward, which might have been twice the amount had you waited.

 

Sitting and letting a trade work for more profits is not easy.

 

You gotta refrain from acting on impulse.

 

Over the years, I have come to realize the elite traders are nothing more than being super aware of their own thoughts and emotions and have the will power not to act on those.

 

Thanks for the feedback.

 

I don't really think its will power, I think they have re-conditioned their minds (sub-conscious) to not let their judgment be clouded. I think they do this via repetition of their edge and building the trust in their edge.

 

I believe I have will power at least equal to, if not beyond most average people and good impulse control in near everything in life but the market for now. I'm just over a year in, and over half of that was with a "mentor" that was NOT good for me. He had me looking at all indicators and looking for the holy grail as he himself was not really a mentor. Learning the bases from a discretionary trader was a bad thing for me, but I'm making up for lost time now. :)

 

I sell early from fear more than greed. I feed the ego not the equity level.

My sub-conscious likes to feel the win more than the payoff financially. I don't like that and will change that this year.

My 2 goals for 2008 are...

 

1) Define my edge further and trade it consistently.

which will lead to goal 2...

2) Become a net profitable trader.

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Not to sound arrogant, but all our issues have solutions to them, just re-read what you just wrote and think about what you just wrote.

 

Try focusing on what is going good for the trade and not what is going wrong, which can take your profits away and that thought alone creates an urge to action, to take profits.

 

Dude, it is easier said than done, but its one of the things you must over come to become successful.

 

You can sorta say, it takes time to mature as a trader, just like in life, look back on how you have changed as a person. It just happened when you finally came to terms with the issues. It either happens or it doesn't, its something you cannot force.

 

I used to that the same problem, taking profits early only to see the market run. Its at the moment when you have the thought of taking profits, is when you need to acknowledge that thought and refrain from acting on it. The next part is tricky, you gotta come to terms with getting stopped out if it happens, and a "could have taken profits" after thought kicks in.

 

Because if you don't your next trade will be opposite of what you just did, its a revolving door of getting nowhere fast when you do stuff like that.

Hope this helps.

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Not to sound arrogant, but all our issues have solutions to them, just re-read what you just wrote and think about what you just wrote.

 

Try focusing on what is going good for the trade and not what is going wrong, which can take your profits away and that thought alone creates an urge to action, to take profits.

 

Dude, it is easier said than done, but its one of the things you must over come to become successful.

 

You can sorta say, it takes time to mature as a trader, just like in life, look back on how you have changed as a person. It just happened when you finally came to terms with the issues. It either happens or it doesn't, its something you cannot force.

 

I used to that the same problem, taking profits early only to see the market run. Its at the moment when you have the thought of taking profits, is when you need to acknowledge that thought and refrain from acting on it. The next part is tricky, you gotta come to terms with getting stopped out if it happens, and a "could have taken profits" after thought kicks in.

 

Because if you don't your next trade will be opposite of what you just did, its a revolving door of getting nowhere fast when you do stuff like that.

Hope this helps.

 

I take stop losses no questions asked and embrace the downside risk.

It's the upside risk I have the issues with, again I think due to the need to be right. I've always been a paradox or contradiction, how can I accept being wrong on the downside but not on the upside? LOL

 

I agree...you're right on, I need to look at the pluses of being on the right side of the trade not the fear of letting a trailed stop get hit. I mean how can you screw up a trade that's in the green right. ;)

 

As is common with the market and that damn "revolving door", when I'd get the balls to let it run that was always the one that had a big pop and then the trailer was too loose for the range of the pop. I'd give up too much and kick myself for leaving so much on the table. Then the others my stop was too tight on the initial entry to let the trade breathe at all and BOOM, I'm stopped out to the tick low of the swing.

 

Anyways, enough ramblings from me...thanks again for the insight and help.

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I must have a very unsual view because when my stop is breakeven+2 there's so much pressure relieved I barely even care where my runner ends up lol... I just look at it as a free trade, if I get stopped out, oh well...on to the next setup.

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I must have a very unsual view because when my stop is breakeven+2 there's so much pressure relieved I barely even care where my runner ends up lol... I just look at it as a free trade, if I get stopped out, oh well...on to the next setup.

 

That's the right way to look at it...not natural for some of us though I guess.

 

I'll be continuing my path and won't give up till I become consistant and net positive. :)

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Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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