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Soultrader

Is Daytrading Right For You?

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Many new market participants are lured in by the glamour of daytrading. We hear of great stories of day traders making a sizable income, working only a few hours a day, and playing golf every weekend. With the fancy advertisements of brokers and data vendors, it is easy to get sucked in without really understanding what day trading is all about.

 

You may have had some experience investing in the stock market. Now you want to consider trading. Index futures, forex, and tech stocks are among the favorites with day traders. Do you really know what it takes to be a full-time trader?

 

The Attraction

 

Most people are tired of their current jobs and looking to find financial independence. Why do you think "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" made millions?

 

Here are the perks associated with day trading:

  • Independence: There are no obligation to anybody but yourself. You do not have to deal with customers, clients, or even your boss. You pick your own working hours and wake up whenever you feel like it. Time is very flexible.
  • Financial Independence: If you are considered a profitable trader, you are most likely not concerned about paying rent the next month. True, traders do go bust. But once you learn how to trade you can make money almost anytime you want.
  • Mobility: You are able to work from anywhere in the world as long as you have a computer with an internet connection. You can place orders on the phone as well but I do not recommend it when day trading. Alot can happen in a matter of seconds.

Some things to consider

 

Like any other job, there are certain things you may have trouble facing. Do you like to work in an environment full of people? Then day trading may not be for you. Many day traders work from their home and are faced with isolation. There are trading rooms and facilities that you can go to but this is limited on where you live. Day traders also spend a considerable amount of time staring at their computers. You may actually sit there for 3 hours before you make one trade that lasts 15 minutes. It is similar to going to a Mike Tyson fight. Waiting for 2 hours and watching for 15 seconds.

 

Day trading may not be for you. It requires quick fingers and an aggressive personality. If you like to spend time analyzing before making a decision you might want to consider swing or position trading. Market analysis must be done prior to the opening. Hesitation in day trading can be costly.

 

My Daily Routine

 

Take a quick glance at my daily routine and if it suits you day trading may be right for you. I wake up approx 1-2 hours before the opening to go over my charts. I spend this time to analyze and devise a trading plan. I will never trade the markets blindly. Having a plan is a must. From 9:30am eastern to 11:00am eastern, I have my eyes glued to the markets and my computer. I am looking for 1-3 good setups. From 11:15am to 2:00pm eastern I will usually spend time doing some work on my website, writing articles, planning new business', and grabbing some food. From 2:00pm to 5:00pm eastern, I am back to trading looking for any good afternoon opportunities. The markets close at 5:00pm and I spend another 2-3 hours studying my trades, analyzing market action, and trying to learn anything new. I will never sleep without learning at least one new thing each day.

 

I tend to be a night owl and a workaholic so I spend most of the time after the close working on different projects. My only break is on every Friday or Saturday night when I do go out and party hard. Sunday... I am back at the laboratory. In my case a 9-5 job offers less working hours. I tend to work over 12 hours everyday.

 

This may not sound appealing to some people. But the biggest reason why I love what I do is that I have complete independence. I can choose to do whatever I want to do. Also day trading offers a tremendous feeling of achievement. Everyday is rewarding and you make money based on your results. There is no harsher judge than the markets. If you are trading with a hangover the markets will rip your throat out. If you are prepared with the right mindset, the markets will reward you.

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I am considering going into day trading, however i am a beginner and do not

know much. Slowly I am reading/studying articles and aquiring knowledge.

However I am an engineering graduate so financial stuff boggles me lol. It

would be an honour if you could help.

 

- I heard you need large amounts of capital to begin day trading, is this

so? and how much are we talking?, As you can see I am a graduate I am

obviously going to lack finance lol but I am willing to take risks.

- I also read that individual day traders do not stand a chance with the

professionals because the professionals have the software and instant

processing tools, is this true? or is it still possible to "make it" ?

- Do you think day trading/spreadbetting is more of a skill or just

gambling?

- Do you recommend any good trading software, books, articles?

- From you experience Is daytrading highly rewarding?

-I am willing to put in 11-12hours daily to learn the markets and the

business, how long given a person of average IQ would it take to "master"

the fundamentals from your experience?

 

I am just like you, during my degree I studyed/worked a straight 12 hours

daily and rested one day. I have the determination and drive just need the

direction.

 

Many thanks your help is greatly appreciated, Keep up the outstanding work at traderslaboratory!

 

Zashuka

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Zashuska,

 

I am new to trading myself, I only started in September of 2006. I already wiped one account and 50% of the next one. Trading is not easy.

 

I was a database designer/developer for financial organisations for ten years. I was very successful and recognised in my field and even published a book. I was very well paid. I'd like to address some of your questions because I myself was lured to trading with the idea of financial independence, no boss, no commuting to work, not tied down to one physical location. With my old job I was tied to London, UK because that is where the money and the good work is. With trading I can live on a mountain in Switzerland or a village in England, an island in the Carribean, wherever I choose as long as I have internet.

 

I would personally recommend you paper trade for a few months and get profitable in that account. Once profitable in your paper account (demo account). Trade 1 contract if you like futures and be profitable with that for a few months. Don't increase your size.

 

Learn all you can about money management and risk - this will wipe your account if you don't. I'm telling you from experience. This is very important.

 

New traders to the markets are fresh blood for the pros to feed on. Where do you think their profits come from? New traders like you and me. Don't underestimate how good the pros are in the markets. They are very good - you better be prepared and have done your home work before trading your first contract.

 

This site is a great one for learning. I also like tradethemarkets.com and there are lots of book recommendations here on this site.

 

day trading for me so far has been heartache, stress, adrenaline, frustration, elation, joy, depression and anger. It is a mixed bag of emotions, you better get prepared for an emotional roller coaster when putting your hard earned cash into some other trader's pocket.

 

I've been doing this six months and I still am next to clueless. You do not need to be exceptionally intelligent. The biggest things you need are iron discipline, a methodical approach, controlled emotions and lots of cash. It may take you say 1-2 years to master the trade, I'd say but it can very enormously from one individual to the next. It may take you 2 months, I've heard some people say it didn't really "click" with them for ten years. I'm not consistently profitable yet and I've been at this six months.

 

I wish you the best of luck. Decide if this is what you really want to do and then throw your heart and soul into it for a year. I'm sure you will then be able to make as much money as you want as long as you can keep control of your emotions. I, myself work 10-12 hours a day, sometimes more, doing my statistics, studying charts, back testing, looking for new setups, reading books, articles, web sites, trading videos, etc. I do love it though, and who knows, one of these days I may be able to breakeven, and then I can take the next step and start to become profitable.

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imo, if u want to daytrade (and i do this) u must

 

1) master yourself

2) master your emotions

3) have a business plan

4) understand risk. i suggest any book on game theory, to start

5) be able to multitask and synthesize various pieces of info quickly

6) be able to admit you are wrong

7) have a methodology with an edge

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Thanks dalby and keymoo for your information, it is much appreciated. Dalby do you have a story one can learn from?

 

I believe keymoo you seem to have a good mindset and I strongly believe that you will definilty do well....just that inner feeling telling me.

 

I was thinking of the same strategy to do paper account trading for up to 1 year until I master some of the arts. Specialise into 1 type of sector, read books, articles synthesise knowledge. Game theory/Risk management seems very important because everyone agrees with that.

 

How much would one need to actually begin when entry to markets? Spreadbetting and day trading seem like the same thing to me just that day trading you own the shares instead of betting on them, correct me if i am wrong?. Given this.. a good daytrader should make a good spreadbetter?

 

Any other usefull advice and case study stories would be helpfull guys,

 

MANY THANKS KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK!

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my story...

 

i came to daytrading from a contrarian investor perspective. for example, I loaded gold in 98 and 99 when everybody hated it and as a big fan of the graham/buffet approach.

 

but with futures you can't rely on fundies etc. you gotta use TA (or quant analysis etc.)

 

i did terribly the first year, then started to get profitable and am now consistently profitable, after learning "with blood".

 

i've been managing some OPM (other people's money) recently, and also started a trade mentoring business, so I have my hand in this market in several ways.

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Dalby your story is quite inspiring...

 

What further detailed advice would you give to newbies such as me? such as books, articles, mindset etc etc ...it would greatly helped, I am an applied information seeker hungry to learn from the best lol.

 

So it took you 1 year of hard training to get profitable?. I have a friend who is like you, his just come into trading with an investing perspective so he also finds it diffucult to adapt to small term trading.

 

Thanks for your help, I am wishing you a profitable/abundant future.

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Thanks dalby and keymoo for your information, it is much appreciated. Dalby do you have a story one can learn from?

 

I believe keymoo you seem to have a good mindset and I strongly believe that you will definilty do well....just that inner feeling telling me.

 

I was thinking of the same strategy to do paper account trading for up to 1 year until I master some of the arts. Specialise into 1 type of sector, read books, articles synthesise knowledge. Game theory/Risk management seems very important because everyone agrees with that.

 

How much would one need to actually begin when entry to markets? Spreadbetting and day trading seem like the same thing to me just that day trading you own the shares instead of betting on them, correct me if i am wrong?. Given this.. a good daytrader should make a good spreadbetter?

 

Any other usefull advice and case study stories would be helpfull guys,

 

MANY THANKS KEEP UP THE EXCELLENT WORK!

 

Beware of spread betting companies and forex houses. They are a bit like the bucket shops of the early 20th century. They generally (but not always) take the other side of your trade so it is in their interest to make you fail. They have various unscrupulous techniques to do this. The futures market and the stock exchange are heavily regulated and is my preferred approach. I chose futures because of the leverage, liquidity and it suitable my personality.

 

To trade 1 contract in the futures market you would need no less than $10k.

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IMHO,

 

I am probably going to ruffle a few feathers here, but my belief is that papertrading is BS and a waste of time if it is for longer then say a week or two.

Why do i believe this?

Emotional stabilty. When you have no risk, it simply is not real. People will tend to "reset" their day after something did not work out. Would you really have gotten that fill at that price? Would you really be reading that porn site when you had that 5 contract (or 1000 share) position on? Taken that phone call while a position was on? Trailed that stop so far away or so close?

 

I would agree that it is "good" to eyeball something for a week or two, to try something new, to get a vague idea if this or that is possible, to try out a new piece of software, to see how this indicator setting etc, etc worked. But after that.. it is my belief that its a waste of time.

 

What i like to suggest to newbies, is to put on that trade. Just do not put on that 5 contract order, or that 1000 share order. Do it with 1 contract in a slower market, or 100 shares in a thick stock. Your emotions are on the line for real when you do this. Your alert, and concentrating on this trade. Will you lose money doing this? Yes. Will you make money doing this? Sometimes. What you are doing is learning what is working for you and what is not, and doing it in a way that you will not get into "to much" trouble. Order placements, record keeping, chart methods settings, stop methods, what you feel comfortable with, what problems you have in your head(fear,greed). After about 200 trades, do yourself a truthful review. How are your entries, your exits, are you attentive during the day, or are you easily distracted?

Is this what you really want? Are you looking for confirmation in many places, or are you rash? Some food for thought...

 

Someone once said.. "There is no perfect trade, only perfect practice."

 

Knyyt

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Great post Knytt. I am inclined to agree with you, but for a total newb to the markets I think a period of time in a paper account would be wise so that they can get used to the platforms, the charts, learn the setups. After that period of time, then trade 1 contract or 100 shares.

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IMHO,

 

I am probably going to ruffle a few feathers here, but my belief is that papertrading is BS and a waste of time if it is for longer then say a week or two.

Why do i believe this?

Emotional stabilty. When you have no risk, it simply is not real. People will tend to "reset" their day after something did not work out. Would you really have gotten that fill at that price? Would you really be reading that porn site when you had that 5 contract (or 1000 share) position on? Taken that phone call while a position was on? Trailed that stop so far away or so close?

 

I would agree that it is "good" to eyeball something for a week or two, to try something new, to get a vague idea if this or that is possible, to try out a new piece of software, to see how this indicator setting etc, etc worked. But after that.. it is my belief that its a waste of time.

 

What i like to suggest to newbies, is to put on that trade. Just do not put on that 5 contract order, or that 1000 share order. Do it with 1 contract in a slower market, or 100 shares in a thick stock. Your emotions are on the line for real when you do this. Your alert, and concentrating on this trade. Will you lose money doing this? Yes. Will you make money doing this? Sometimes. What you are doing is learning what is working for you and what is not, and doing it in a way that you will not get into "to much" trouble. Order placements, record keeping, chart methods settings, stop methods, what you feel comfortable with, what problems you have in your head(fear,greed). After about 200 trades, do yourself a truthful review. How are your entries, your exits, are you attentive during the day, or are you easily distracted?

Is this what you really want? Are you looking for confirmation in many places, or are you rash? Some food for thought...

 

Someone once said.. "There is no perfect trade, only perfect practice."

 

Knyyt

I'm totally on your side here. Paper trading is a waste of time. That is why I like forex. You can trade a micro account in the real market to test ideas. In some cases, the account can be funded for like 10 bucks. Usually you need about 250.00. The idea is not to get rich on the initial deposit, just something more real than paper trading and less over-whelming than a full size contract while testing out ideas.

 

And since a chart is a chart is a chart, it doesn't even matter if you ultimately want to trade index futures.

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Yes, micro is the best to get started without being emotionally committed. This helps get the routine going and as the trader becomes blaze to the wins and losses, that's when profitability kicks in as he sizes up little by little. The real trick is to take emotions out of the equation (from Casino Royale), so this is the best way to do it.

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LOL. Someone should disagree. So its me :p

 

Paper trading has a number of places in the game of developing, testing, and then trading your edges.

 

1. Forward testing after you have backtested an edge.

2. Building confidence that an edge works in real time ... leading to small trading to build more confidence and large trading to become rich, rich, rich !!!

3. Building confidence if you have fallen off your edge or your discipline. Too many people keep losing money too long in a bad streak. If the cause is psychological paper trading can be an effective part of recovery; as can rehearsal etc etc.

 

The common practice of maligning paper trading reflects a lack of understanding of where it can be useful. Like any tool, its up to the artisan to use it well.

 

Cheers :)

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I agree with kiwi in this case for people who don't trade forex because other markets don't provide small accounts with small risks. Paper trading can save unnecessary headaches and frustrations.

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Daytrading is not the place for novice or inexperienced traders to learn their craft.

 

Daytrading is the most difficult timeframe to be successful in. Novice traders and inexperienced traders should start on at least weekly data based trades and possibly even monthly.

 

The closer you get to the noise of the market, the more mistakes you will make for the simple reason you will encounter all of the following;

 

*stop-running

*price manipulation for institutional fills

*liquidity providers

*volume based on derivative hedging

*Fundamental based news that is released intra-day

 

Until you can trade these in a longer timeframe successfully, what evidence suggests that you can trade these successfully in a compressed intra-day timeframe?

 

The answer is that only 1/100 will start as a novice within daytrading and actually succeed from the get-go.

 

Would you perform brain surgery without 5yrs Medical School and 7yrs as a specialist [surgery]?

 

If your answer is no; what makes you think you can outcompete the specialists out there with 10yrs,20yrs experience?

 

No qualifications save a $25K stake are required to enter this "profession".

If you enter as a novice, you will lose your money.

Knowledge, Experience, Courage are required prior to the "dream".

 

jog on

d998

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Hrrumpff! The swing and position traders I know who thought they were well prepared to trade intraday have usually had their heads handed to them by the market in fairly short order. It's just not quite the same game despite the promotions by many system sellers to the contrary. One man's price action is another man's order flow, if you get the drift. It is not simply a matter of scaling down. The same instrument trades quite differently intraday than it does weekly or monthly. Can some make the transition? Sure.. but experience in one is certainly no assurance of success in the other.

 

Happy Trading ;)

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Are you convinced that learning to trade weekly timeframes will prepare you to trade 5 minute or lower timeframes? :confused:

 

No not at all.

However if you can trade profitably in this [or any higher timeframe] I would place your chances much higher of being successful in the daytrading zone.

 

If you cannot trade profitably in higher timeframes, why would you expect any different in a lower timeframe?

 

As markets are fractal in their technical composition, extending the timeframe has the effect of diminishing the effects of noise [noise being volume] that are distracting rather than helpful.

 

You will also find [in stocks] that price is not a reliable "indicator" at all.

If you use $Flow there will be numerous examples of price falling [rising] while $Flow goes highly positive [negative].

jog on

d998

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No not at all.

However if you can trade profitably in this [or any higher timeframe] I would place your chances much higher of being successful in the daytrading zone.

 

If you cannot trade profitably in higher timeframes, why would you expect any different in a lower timeframe?

 

As markets are fractal in their technical composition, extending the timeframe has the effect of diminishing the effects of noise [noise being volume] that are distracting rather than helpful.

 

You will also find [in stocks] that price is not a reliable "indicator" at all.

If you use $Flow there will be numerous examples of price falling [rising] while $Flow goes highly positive [negative].

jog on

d998

 

 

Duc,

 

I agree here. $$flowing opposite to price.

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From my personal experience, any one new to trading will need to look at trading with a complete approach. In other word conditions that will effect your of trading. Anything what would have a effect to your bottom line should be included. And after you start to list out all the conditons, it can get really complicted.

 

But this is reality, any one who want to get into trading will need to iron out all these condition before you can be a consistant trader.

 

Let me present a model on this.

 

Internal factor: the famous 3M from Dr. Elder

1. Mind

2. Money

3. Method

 

How about External factor, things that is not directly related to trading, but will have an impact on you.

 

1.Family issue. Spouse, children and other relatives.

2.Supporting - emotional and finacial

3.others- health, car issue or any another issue that needs your immediate attention.

 

One live example: One moning phone ring, my wife's friend colleage got into an accident at 7:30 AM Eastern Time, and she wanted my wife to take her to work. But my wife has already left, so out of good well, I offered to help her. I thought this will be fast and easy, and I would have time to get back to my desk before 9:30. But it turned out to be a lot works. Not only I have to help her deal with police, took her to work, I also have to take her to car rental company to get a rental car.

 

By the time I got back to my desk it is 9:40, ER2 gap up and run up for 6 points. Plus other things from daily chart, condition of this kind do not happen a lot, but when it did it is very good bet that gap will be closed. Meaning $600 in profit per contract.

 

But since I rushed back, I was not prepared to take this one, so I had to let it get by. Worst yet, got mad at this, I start to took trade that dose not have good bases, and end up losing big that day.

 

Then at end of month when I look back, that day was the deterministic day for the month. Had I been able to take that setup, I would have a good month. and it end up to be an none-performaning month.

 

things like this will have big effects on your psychology. I know it had on me. I resent the fact that her call was so perfect, right at day and time the setup happened. Had it been another other day or time, I would have known how to deal with it. And how about all the good trades that I missed during the time that I have this emotion issue.

 

Worst yet, I can't even talk about this, because I know people would think that you should help her, so what are you complain about. But the frustration is there, I will have to channel it out in some way. It took me long time to recover from this incident.

 

And guess what, this is just one of those many "unexpected" external conditions that happened.

 

If you are an individual who would like to get into this trading business, then you must take all these factors into consideration.

 

Slowly you will progress with better emotion, and with persistance, eventually you will finish all your courses, and graduate from the trading university.

 

I will talk more about trading in the Internal factors in my next post.

 

Have a nice Journey.

 

 

weiwei

 

 

PS: notice that i said progress, because as for me, controling emotion never work for me, but understanding myself and progress out of it has.

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So if you understood yourself and cannot control your emotion, how or what did you get your trading change for the better? I see these 2 problem intertwined.

 

Here's the example, shrinks identify the problem and make that known to the patient. But that's the first step, the 2nd step is to change the behavior to get rid of the problem because recognizing oneself is not enough.

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lol, Torero, You are one step ahead of me. that is why I said there is more on this post.

 

 

But, I have to said, understand in here means understand one's current status totally, then one can make a better choice.

 

for example: one might not have a problem, but do have limitation on an area. Or the problem can not get rid of, but can be contained. As one dig deeper, all of suddent, there are many many options.

 

In college, if one do not do well in math, he/she usually will not try to be an engineer or any major that requires a lot math courses. But he/she can still get an degree in other area.

 

I believe one who has better understanding of the complete picture, and know the necessary steps to take to get there is the one who will have better chance to be successful in life, not just trading.

 

The way I look at it is that trading is like getting a college degree. there are many courses that one have to learn and many exams one have to pass to move on to next class. Then when all is completed. You will be awarded with a degree.

 

But unless you get all completed, you will get none.

 

What makes hard in trading is that there is really no clear way to do it. No one is laying a course outline for you. You are pretty much on your own, and have to figure out every thing out yourself. And that is what makes hard in trading. So many options and one can easily get lost with all those choices.

 

I will discuss more in next post.

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I have discussed about Internal and external factors regarding with trading. this one will be on the exernal factors that traders have to deal with.

 

To make it sample, it all come down to this.

 

One must be in good harmoney with his/her surrounding.

 

Reason is sample, you do not want those external factors to distrub you to a point that you subconsciosly take it out on the market or lost your focus during trading.

 

But some time, things do happen. then knowing how to deal with it is the key to maintain that peace of mind.

 

my next post will start with the fun thing on the 3M, money, method and mind.

 

 

weiwei.

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1st part of 3M - Money.

 

In this post, I would not discuss how much money you need to start trading, rather I will give you my view and opinion on it.

 

If you ask this question with the intention to learn, and not to make money, then you do not need a lot. Since you are here alreay at TL, you can look at all different articles, learn how other trades, pick up a method that suits you, and join the chat room here or else where to see how people trade.

 

But if you ask the question with intention to make money, then I said you need a lot, and you will have a very tough time ahead of you. Any you would not make much money with trading.

 

Why? Because you focus your attentions and energy on the wrong area that would not produce for you.

 

Money is the end result or product of one's efforts. You would have to put your efforts on the cause that will trun into the result or product. In this case money.

 

Now do you see why if you are new and have the intention to make money in trading will be fruitless. All because your energy will be spend on the area not would not produce.

 

So what wil produce. processes..

 

Image if you are a farmer, to get your crops, what do you have to do? you will have to do all the things necessary for it to grow, and if you miss one step, then you might not have that crops. Missing 2 steps, that crops might never make it.

 

It is when you master all the steps, knowing what to do at each stage, you will then have the chance to turn that crops into food. (I said chance because there might be external factors that whip out the crops, like storms and others).

 

So how much money do you need to trade, in my opinion is all relative. If you take the farmer's approach you will reach a stage that you know exactly how much you need to produce.

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weiwei thanks for sharing your experiences with us. I know that sometimes it can't be easy to even admit to ourselves what is going on emotionally, but to share it with us all is very gracious. Thanks.

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    • also ... and barely on topic... Winners (always*) overpay. Buying the dips is a subscription to the belief that winners win by underpaying - when in actuality winners (inevitably/always*) win by overpaying... it’s amazing the percentage of traders who think winners win by underpaying ... “Winners (always*) overpay.” ...  One way to implement this ‘belief’ is to only reenter when prices have emphatically resumed the 'trend' .   (Fwiw, While “Winners (always*) overpay.” holds true in most endeavors (relationships, business, sports, etc...) - “Winners (always*) overpay.”  is especially true for auctions... continuous auctions included.)
    • re:  "Does it make sense to always buy the dips?  “Buy the dip.”  You hear this all the time in crypto investing trading speculation gambling. [zdo taking some liberties] It refers, of course, to buying more bitcoin (or digital assets) when they go down in price: when the price “dips.” Some people brag about “buying the dip," showing they know better than the crowd. Others “buy the dip” as an investment strategy: they’re getting a bargain. The problem is, buying the dip is a fallacy. You can’t buy the dip, because you can't see the total dip until much later. First, I’ll explain this in a way that will make it simple and obvious to you; then I’ll show you a better way of investing. You Only Know the Dip in Hindsight When people talk about “buying the dip,” what they’re really saying is, “I bought when the price was going down.” " ... example of a dip ... 
    • Date: 19th April 2024. Weekly Commodity Market Update: Oil Prices Correct and Supply Concerns Persist.   The ongoing developments in the Middle East sparked a wave of risk aversion and fueled supply concerns and investors headed for safety. Hopes for imminent rate cuts from the Federal Reserve diminish while attention is now turning towards the demand outlook. The Gold price hit a high of $2417.89 per ounce overnight. Sentiment has already calmed down again and bullion is trading at $2376.50 per ounce as haven flows ease. Oil prices initially moved higher as concern over escalating tensions with the WTI contract hit a session high of $85.508 per barrel overnight, before correcting to currently $81.45 per barrel. Oil Prices Under Pressure Amid Middle East Tensions Last week, commodity indexes showed little movement, with Oil prices undergoing a slight correction. Meanwhile, Gold reached yet another record high, mirroring the upward trend in cocoa prices. Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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