Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

jperl

Trading with Market Statistics X. Position Trading

Recommended Posts

The most likely problem is the approximation used to compute the VWAP as well as the histogram. Ideally, the VWAP should be computed from data for every trade. In practice this is not done. As a good approximation, the VWAP is computed from the price of every bar and its volume. The error in this approximation gets larger the larger the time frame of the chart. As the time frame of the chart gets smaller, the error diminishes. So if you compare a 30 min, with a 5 min and 1 min chart you should see the VWAP converging to the "correct" value.

 

1) DO you mean then the 1 min VWAP should be the most correct one then?

2) What about the PVP?

 

Thanks, again Jerry you are my hero. Since your threads I have been trading futures again combined with market internals very successfully.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sorry, I forgot one more question. What is VPOC, VWTPO, VOC? I just switch using Ninjatrader and it has an indicator avaiable that displays these 3 and TPOs. I was wondering which one could be Volume Profile.

 

Thanks, Jerry.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Jerry, thanks for your wonderful thread. i have been using market statistics and I am learning everyday since I started reading your thread. I have a few problems though that I was wondering if you can answer me.

I use Zenfire with Ninjatrader and there are two VWAP indicators that have been programmed and are avaiable for everybody. My problem is when I change the interval on the chart from let's say 30 min to 5 min, or 1 min that the VWAP changes value and as far as I undestand that should not be the case right? The second thing is that my PVP changes as well when I change the interval. So I just wanted to confirm with you that this should not be the case and I got a problem then and cannot trade with this tools right?

 

Thanks, M.

 

As Jerry says the inconsistencies come from averaging the volume in a bar to an average price for that bar. It's a data sampling issue if you like (a bar is a sample).

 

A further observation, with the VWAP the difference is not to significant. After a day there may be a tick or two difference between a 1 min chart and a 10 min chart. With the PVP the issue can be much greater. If you look at how the PVP is calculated you can see that it will jump when there is a new peak. You may get a new peak when there is not one due to averaging or you might not get a new peak when there should be one due to averaging. Keeping an eye on the volume profile might alert you to this possibilities (two peaks of similar magnitude).

 

If you are bothered about accuracy use a small time frame chart and transfer the lines to your trading chart. I always have a 1 tick chart scrunched up in the background to know precise values. Sadly when I tried this with NT it choked as this can be processor intensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sorry, I forgot one more question. What is VPOC, VWTPO, VOC? I just switch using Ninjatrader and it has an indicator avaiable that displays these 3 and TPOs. I was wondering which one could be Volume Profile.

 

Thanks, Jerry.

 

Well, since you are a Ninjatrader user, you will find discussions of these on the Ninjatrader forums here:

 

Calculate Value Area of volume at price - NinjaTrader Support Forum

 

and

 

 

here:

 

Enthios live index futures trading

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If you are bothered about accuracy use a small time frame chart and transfer the lines to your trading chart. I always have a 1 tick chart scrunched up in the background to know precise values. Sadly when I tried this with NT it choked as this can be processor intensive.

With 1R (1 tick range) chart you get almost the same precision calculated from much less data points than if you use 1 tick chart.

 

I have observed that running computation on time charts or larger range charts is generally less precise than using CVB or tick charts. The reason is obvious. Bars on CVB and tick charts form in relation to activity, while in time bars the activity within the bar is much less likely to be evenly distributed.

So if one wants to calculate developing value areas from less data points but still with high level of precision, he should use CVB (or tick) charts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
With 1R (1 tick range) chart you get almost the same precision calculated from much less data points than if you use 1 tick chart.

 

I have observed that running computation on time charts or larger range charts is generally less precise than using CVB or tick charts. The reason is obvious. Bars on CVB and tick charts form in relation to activity, while in time bars the activity within the bar is much less likely to be evenly distributed.

So if one wants to calculate developing value areas from less data points but still with high level of precision, he should use CVB (or tick) charts.

 

What do you mean with CVB charts?

 

Thanks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Position Trading is generally described as a trade which you enter and expect to hold for a considerable period of time during the day. Such a trade can be entered at any time after the open. My personal preference for a position trade is at the beginning of the trading day using market statistics from the previous day as my guide for determining entry, profit target, stoploss and scale in points if necessary. The direction of the trade is based on interpretation given in the last 9 "Trading with Market Statistics" threads but using the previous days statistics as the starting point. Position trading is thus no different than any other type of trading that I have previously described.

 

Here is the idea:

 

a)Set up a chart with yesterdays volume histogram, PVP, VWAP and SD's on it. Leave sufficient room to the right of yesterdays close so that at the open you can continue to add to the statistical data as todays market begins to unfold. In effect you are continuing to update yesterdays volume distribution as more data is added to the chart.

 

b)Before the open, decide on your trading plan. Pick a direction for the trade, an entry point, profit target and stoploss based on what you see in the volume distribution function. It will help to reread the previous threads to determine what you should be looking for.

 

c)When the market opens, execute the plan.

 

In the following video on trading the ER2 (Emini Russell 2000), you will see that the previous days volume distribution ended the day in a symmetric state with the VWAP = PVP. I then concluded that I should look for a countertrend trade back toward the VWAP as described in [thread=2285]"Trading with Market Statistics Part VIII"[/thread].

 

Watch the video to see what I did on September 06, 2007.

 

ER2PostionTradeSep06

 

This trade was a good position trade which would have been even better if I had traded more than one contract. After having climbed up to the 2nd SD above the VWAP, the price action continued on down below the VWAP to the 1st SD and then evenutally to the 2nd SD, a very typical signature of a symmetric distribution.

 

I have several questions here:

 

1) You said that you setup a chart with yesterdays Volume Distribution function and PVP, SDs. So when today the market opens is the data added to yesterday's function (sorry english is not my first language, if the answer is already in your post). If this is not possible with Ninjatrader, can I just use yesterdays PVP, VWAP and SDs static points and extend these point as S/R lines as you showed in your chart?

 

2) So just to be sure if I understood it right. For position trading the rules are:

 

  • When yesterday's VWAP = yesterday's PVP = no skew, I look for countertrend trades towards the yesterday's VWAP at yesterday's Standard Deviations. Or also I can breakout trades as previously posted in a thread.
  • today's price open above y. VWAP and y. VWAP > y. PVP: take long trades or
  • today's price action is below y. VWAP and y. VWAP < PVP: take short trades

 

3) If you do add today's data to yesterday's distribution when do you switch over to use only today's volume distribution function.

 

Thanks, M.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1) You said that you setup a chart with yesterdays Volume Distribution function and PVP, SDs. So when today the market opens is the data added to yesterday's function (sorry english is not my first language, if the answer is already in your post). If this is not possible with Ninjatrader, can I just use yesterdays PVP, VWAP and SDs static points and extend these point as S/R lines as you showed in your chart?

 

If the question is "Can you", the answer is yes. If the question is "should you", the answer is no. Yesterdays VWAP and SD's will change dynamically as you add more data for today. Using yesterdays data as a static VWAP isn't going to help you much.

2) So just to be sure if I understood it right. For position trading the rules are:

 

  • When yesterday's VWAP = yesterday's PVP = no skew, I look for countertrend trades towards the yesterday's VWAP at yesterday's Standard Deviations. Or also I can breakout trades as previously posted in a thread.
  • today's price open above y. VWAP and y. VWAP > y. PVP: take long trades or
  • today's price action is below y. VWAP and y. VWAP < PVP: take short trades

  • You have it about right. These are however not rules. Simply one way of interpreting the data.

3) If you do add today's data to yesterday's distribution when do you switch over to use only today's volume distribution function

That's your choice. You don't have to switch. If you are trading against yesterdays data + todays, you are looking for market moves of 1 SD within that data set. If you are trading against todays data only, you are looking for market moves against todays data set. You choose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If the question is "Can you", the answer is yes. If the question is "should you", the answer is no. Yesterdays VWAP and SD's will change dynamically as you add more data for today. Using yesterdays data as a static VWAP isn't going to help you much.

 

  • You have it about right. These are however not rules. Simply one way of interpreting the data.

 

That's your choice. You don't have to switch. If you are trading against yesterdays data + todays, you are looking for market moves of 1 SD within that data set. If you are trading against todays data only, you are looking for market moves against todays data set. You choose.

 

Thank you Jerry.

In your video, did VWAP etc chantge at all? Or were they static?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Thank you Jerry.

In your video, did VWAP etc chantge at all? Or were they static?

 

I think you will find they are dynamic lines from a 2 day sample (yesterday with todays being added to the sample). The horizontal lines might be a little confusing (suggesting static) but they actually are 'projections' of the unfolding VWAP/SDs. You will see they (the horizontal lines) have moved at the end of the video from where they started at the beginning of the day. They correspond to the current values of a 2 day VWAP/SD set. Jerry also mentions moving the target up as the VWAP develops. I seem to have been overly verbose:)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I am sure Jerry will correct me if I am wrong but yesterdays static VWAP SD's etc. can act as HuP's? They certainly appear to.

 

I think I may well be mistaken. Reviewing Market Statistics XI maybe Jerry would not classify previous days static lines as HuP's. Having said that they often do appear to hold up price. Of course early in the day they will be close to the dynamic ones until new data is added to the set.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That's your choice. You don't have to switch. If you are trading against yesterdays data + todays, you are looking for market moves of 1 SD within that data set. If you are trading against todays data only, you are looking for market moves against todays data set. You choose.

 

Hi Jerry,

 

Presumably you can use any of the principles described in earlier threads with a two day data set?

 

Presumably you can use even larger data sets (5 days for example) provided you are comfortable with the risk?

 

Finally do you have favourite data set periods and favourite trades? I must admit that originally I was attracted towards the scalp type trades but now find the larger data sets interesting. Maybe it's because volatility died down somewhat.

 

I'm still impressed with how elegant and flexible what you have presented is.

 

Edit: One other thing occurs to me your statement above seems to imply that you only ever consider one set at a time? Is that set in stone? I must admit that I like to see things 'aligned' though can lead to indecision when they are not.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

Presumably you can use any of the principles described in earlier threads with a two day data set?

Yes of course

 

Presumably you can use even larger data sets (5 days for example) provided you are comfortable with the risk?

Yes. The longer the time frame the larger the SD and therefore the greater the risk.

 

Finally do you have favourite data set periods and favourite trades?

I trade the Russell 2000 index futures almost exclusively. I will always have yesterdays data set up and todays.

 

 

One other thing occurs to me your statement above seems to imply that you only ever consider one set at a time? Is that set in stone? I must admit that I like to see things 'aligned' though can lead to indecision when they are not.

 

The question of how many HUPS to put on your trading data set is subjective. Too many and you can get confused; too few and you may miss important ones. If I'm trading just today, I will always have yesterdays data set HUPS on my chart( which will continue to change dynamically as todays data gets added to it). But I may also include additional VWAP data from 1 week, 1 month, 1 year ago if they happen to be nearby the price action.

Hope that helps.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Blowfish or Jperl,

 

I was wondering if any could help me out with which type of Profile I should choose in order to replicate Jperl's approach to markets correctly. I use Ninjatrader and there are various Profile indicators based on Volume, TPOs etc.

 

Here are the ones I can choose from that a programmer wrote in the NT Forum:

 

VOC - Volume at Close. Only maps volume at the close tick per bar.

VTPO - Volume Time Price Opertunity. Evenly distributes Volume accross the ticks per bar. (TPO is realy just another phrase for POC in this context).

VWTPO - Volume Weighted. Distributes The Volume accross the ticks of a bar on a weighted basis (larger bars get less volume per tick, vs. smaller bars with the same volume.

TPO - only price is used.

 

Thanks for the help.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Blowfish or Jperl,

 

I was wondering if any could help me out with which type of Profile I should choose in order to replicate Jperl's approach to markets correctly. I use Ninjatrader and there are various Profile indicators based on Volume, TPOs etc.

 

Here are the ones I can choose from that a programmer wrote in the NT Forum:

 

VOC - Volume at Close. Only maps volume at the close tick per bar.

VTPO - Volume Time Price Opertunity. Evenly distributes Volume accross the ticks per bar. (TPO is realy just another phrase for POC in this context).

VWTPO - Volume Weighted. Distributes The Volume accross the ticks of a bar on a weighted basis (larger bars get less volume per tick, vs. smaller bars with the same volume.

TPO - only price is used.

 

Thanks for the help.

 

I am not familiar with these indicators having said that the second (despite sounding like misnomer) behaves like Ensign (if it does what it says on the can).

 

If you look closely at Jerrys videos you can see the volume averaged across each bar at its close.....the profile for the range of the bar increases.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The question of how many HUPS to put on your trading data set is subjective. Too many and you can get confused; too few and you may miss important ones. If I'm trading just today, I will always have yesterdays data set HUPS on my chart( which will continue to change dynamically as todays data gets added to it). But I may also include additional VWAP data from 1 week, 1 month, 1 year ago if they happen to be nearby the price action.

Hope that helps.

 

Yes it does. Just interested in your own personal preference :).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Yes it does. Just interested in your own personal preference :).

 

Actually can I recant that? :). Let me describe a senario and possible way of approaching it and ask for your comments.

 

Lets say a weekly dataset has a positive skew and that price has moved up from the VWAP some way towards the SD1 (1/3rd or middway, whatever). We might anticipate that price would continue to SD1 the minimum expected movement.

 

Lets Imagine the daily profile (our chosen trading set) develops a downward skew. We might choose to skip a VWAP trade against the context of the larger dataset perhaps favouring a breakout (in accord with the larger dataset) or for waiting for the daily data set to flip.

 

Nothing really revolutionary just a way of considering the context of the bigger picture (data set). In the HUP section you described how they (HUPs) might hold up price but it seems to me they can provide more information too.

 

Of course you have to be careful not to information overload and to remain clear what you are actually trading. From previous posts I doubt that you would use the data like that but would still be interested in your comments.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jerry,

 

Today I traded HD ( home depot) on a 1 minute chart and got 1 trade out of it. I am fully aware that the market can and will do whatever it wants. That being said HD was in an up trend all day but it was skewed to the negative.I took a text book "Jerry" short at 37.74 from the 1st SD to the VWAP at 12:36 to 12:53, covered, made a profit. It then went balistic because of the Beige book report. Before the report the slope of the VWAP was rising toward the PVP but still negatively skewed with price action way above the PVP and after the report it finally crossed over. My question to you is, if I see that the VWAP slope is converging towards the PVP, and price action is way above, could I enter a long trade at obvious HUP areas or would I be breaking any rules?

 

I am using ENSIGN and was wondering if I have the correct parameters on my price histogram:

 

range% 70

 

minutes: 1

 

restart: 930

 

boxsize: 1

 

initial: 0

 

Your help or anyone out there would be appreciated

 

Thanks,

 

 

Trade Pro

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Actually can I recant that? :). Let me describe a senario and possible way of approaching it and ask for your comments.

 

Lets say a weekly dataset has a positive skew and that price has moved up from the VWAP some way towards the SD1 (1/3rd or middway, whatever). We might anticipate that price would continue to SD1 the minimum expected movement.

 

Lets Imagine the daily profile (our chosen trading set) develops a downward skew. We might choose to skip a VWAP trade against the context of the larger dataset perhaps favouring a breakout (in accord with the larger dataset) or for waiting for the daily data set to flip.

 

Nothing really revolutionary just a way of considering the context of the bigger picture (data set). In the HUP section you described how they (HUPs) might hold up price but it seems to me they can provide more information too.

 

Of course you have to be careful not to information overload and to remain clear what you are actually trading. From previous posts I doubt that you would use the data like that but would still be interested in your comments.

 

Your question comes down to the situation of what do you do when one data set shows a positive skew and another shows a negative skew; which way do you take the trade.?

 

This situation occurs all the time. The answer is not unique. It depends on what type of trade you are looking to enter. If you are trading against the weekly data with positive skew, it may take a whole week for you to see a positive long trade. If you are trading against the daily data with negative skew then you may want to go short keeping in mind that the longer time bias is long.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hi Jerry, thanks for your reply. My question was not really meant to be a general 'what to do' question, more a request for a comment on the general principle. The general principle being using a larger data set as 'context' for a smaller dataset trade. Context could mean a directional bias or possibly a filter.

 

As you say there are many way's to interpret two data sets, the question is more along the lines of is there any advantage doing so? I think so, on the flip side one has added complexity to deal with.

 

As an example (again not asking for a comment on this specific case), if the weekly is moving from VWAP to SD1 (which will likely take some number of days) one might want to concentrate on daily trades in the same direction (these will be smaller, quicker trades) they could be VWAP, SD1, or even break outs as long as they are in the direction of the weekly movement (or context if you like). This particular example is similar to the traditional concept of going with the greater trend.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Hi Jerry, thanks for your reply. My question was not really meant to be a general 'what to do' question, more a request for a comment on the general principle. The general principle being using a larger data set as 'context' for a smaller dataset trade. Context could mean a directional bias or possibly a filter.

 

As you say there are many way's to interpret two data sets, the question is more along the lines of is there any advantage doing so? I think so, on the flip side one has added complexity to deal with.

 

As an example (again not asking for a comment on this specific case), if the weekly is moving from VWAP to SD1 (which will likely take some number of days) one might want to concentrate on daily trades in the same direction (these will be smaller, quicker trades) they could be VWAP, SD1, or even break outs as long as they are in the direction of the weekly movement (or context if you like). This particular example is similar to the traditional concept of going with the greater trend.

 

Blowfish your concept of using the longer data set to decide on trade direction for the shorter data set would work fine. In fact it should work fine for just about any type of technical analysis one uses: eg. long time moveing average with short time moving average, long time regression analysis with short time, long time stochs with short time stochs. The key as you state is trading the short time in the direction of the long time trend. The only problem I have with it is you will miss about half the good trades.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I could see no reason why it would not be valid. As you say hardly a new concept. I guess the question is (and it is as much a rhetorical question as one directed at you :)) is whether it causes one to miss more bad trades than good trades. It might be useful to give confidence in some of the riskier trades (break out springs to mind) if it is in the direction of the larger data set.

 

Another thought occurs to me (again nothing new) and that is using a trade setup in a smaller data set as a 'trigger' for a larger data set trade. Similar sort of deal really the main difference is the focus of the trade is on the larger data set.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 18th January 2022. Market Update – January 18 – BOJ Stands Pat.Asian markets weaker as BOJ stays put (-0.1% interest rate) with stimulus package intact, raises inflation target to 1.1% and growth to 3.8% for 2022. Kuroda: “Will ease monetary policy without hesitation as needed, there has been a notable improvement in the economy.” USD firmer, Yields moved up with US 2-yr over key 1.0%, 10-yr over 1.8%. Oil higher – Saudi’s retaliate, attacking Yemen and Gold holds at $1815.   USD (USDIndex 95.25) holds on to gains from Friday, pushing to 953.8 earlier. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again and trades at 1.818%. Equities – US closed yesterday. Nikkei -0.27% – USA500 FUTS lower again at 4633. USOil – Spiked over $84.70 as very tight supply, Saudi’s retaliation on Sanaa and NK continued firing of missiles unsettles sentiment. Gold – holds at $1815 from a test of $1823. Bitcoin another down day, tested to $41,600, back to 42,200 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1400, USDJPY now 114.80 tested 115.00 earlier, Cable back to test 200hr MA 1.3620, +20 pips after UK jobs data. Overnight – UK Earnings in line at 4.2%, Unemployment (4.1%) and Claims better than expected. PBOC deputy governor says will keep yuan exchange rate basically stable.European Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -19 ticks, Treasury futures are underperforming. Stocks across Asia struggled with the renewed rise in yields and DAX and FTSE 100 futures are also down -0.3% and -0.2% respectively. Inflation risks and central bank outlook will be dominating the discussion in coming months.Today – German ZEW, Empire State Manu. Index & Earnings from Goldman Sachs. Day 2 of DAVOS (on-line).Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (again) (+0.34% again) Rallied all day over 91.73 (Thursdays high) and onto test 92.00. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 68 rising, H1 ATR 0.131 Daily ATR 0.804.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date : 17th January 2022. Market Update – January 17 – USD Holds onto gains.Big bank Earnings disappointed on Friday, the USD recovered from 8-week lows and Fedspeakers continued to worry about inflation as hawkish tones increased. Stocks recovered early losses, Yields moved up to close the week as Oil moved up and Gold moved down. China’s PBOC delivered the first rate cut in a while as signs of slow down persist and Covid cases once again spread.   USD (USDIndex 95.20) holds on to gains from Friday. Bouncing from 8-week lows under 94.60. US Yields 10-yr moved higher again to close at 1.772%. Equities – USA500 +3.82 (+0.08%) at 4662 as Financials weighed following Earnings from JPM (-6.15%) Blackrock (-2.19%) and WFC (+3.68) Tech & Energies lead recovery into long weekend. USA500 FUTS lower at 4652. USOil – Spiked over $84.00 as markets look beyond Covid spikes with very tight supply. Gold – settled at $1816 from a test of 1830 again. Now at $1822. Bitcoin support once again at $42,000, Friday, back to 42,800 now. FX markets – EURUSD back to 1.1465, USDJPY now 114.40 at 115.85, Cable back to 1.33680. Overnight – Chinese GDP and industrial production exceeded expectations, whilst retail sales disappointed. UK house price data from the Nationwide was strong. The Chairman of Credit Suisse has resigned due to Covid breaches.Week Ahead A Bank of Japan meeting which concludes on Tuesday, UK inflation data on Wednesday and Australian jobs figures on Thursday. Earnings from GS, BAC, MS, P&G, NetflixEuropean Open – The March 10-year Bund future is down -36 ticks, alongside broad losses in US futures, which points to a further rise in yields across Europe. Stock market futures are trading mixed, with DAX and FTSE 100 futures posting gains of 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while an 0.4% decline in the NASDAQ is leading US futures lower. Central bank outlooks and inflation expectations remain in focus, the Fed is gearing up for a round of central bank hikes this year that will also impact the outlook for BoE and ECB amid hopes that the pandemic phase of Covid-19 will start to fade.Today – Little data from Europe & All US markets closed for MLK Day.Biggest FX Mover @ (07:30 GMT) CADJPY (+0.34%) Rallied from 90.50 lows on Friday to 91.37 (Fridays high) now. MAs aligned higher, MACD signal line & histogram higher & above 0 line. RSI 64 & rising, H1 ATR 0.121 Daily ATR 0.794.Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Stuart Cowell Head Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • GOLD FLUCTUATES BELOW $1,830 OVERHEAD RESISTANCE, MAY SLUMP TO $1,800 LO Key Resistance Levels: $1,900, $1,950, $2000 Key Support Levels: $1,750, $1, 700,$1,650 Gold (XAUUSD) Long-term Trend: Bullish Gold (XAUUSD) is in a sideways move but may slump to $1,800 low. Gold is retracing as it faces rejection at the high of $1,830. However, if price breaks the resistance level, the market will rise and retest the previous high of $1,860. Meanwhile, on January 14 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement suggests that Gold will rise but reverse at level 1.272 Fibonacci extension or $1,840.86. XAUUSD – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: Gold is at level 55 of the Relative Strength Index for period 14. The market has reached the uptrend zone and further upside is likely. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating an uptrend. Gold (XAUUSD) Medium-term bias: Ranging On the 4 hour chart, the Gold price is in a sideways trend. The gold price fluctuates below the $1,828 overhead resistance. The sideways trend has been ongoing since December 21. Each time the market retest the overhead resistance, the selling pressure will resume. The current downtrend is likely to extend to the low of $1,804 before upward. XAUUSD – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading XAUUSD is below the 80% range of the daily stochastic. The market is in the bearish momentum. The 21-day SMA and the 50-day SMA are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. General Outlook for Gold (XAUUSD) Gold’s (XAUUSD) price is declining as it may slump to $1,800 low. The market is fluctuating below the $1,828 resistance zone. The Gold price is falling to the downside. The upward move will resume if price finds support above the $1,800.   Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • USOIL REACHES AN OVERBOUGHT REGION, MAY FACE REJECTION AT $85.39 Key Resistance Levels: $80.00, $84.00, $88.00 Key Support Levels: $66.00,$62.200,$58.00 USOIL (WTI) Long-term Trend: Bullish USOIL has been in an uptrend but it may face rejection at $85.39. The index is retesting the previous high of $85.39. In previous price action in October and November, the bulls failed to break above the overhead resistance. Meanwhile, on December 9 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that WTI will rise to level 2.0 Fibonacci extension or $81.61. From the price action, buyers have broken above the Fibonacci extension and have reached a high of $84. USOIL – Daily Chart Daily Chart Indicators Reading: USOIL is at level 70 of the Relative Strength Index period 14. It indicates that the index is in the overbought region of the market. The current uptrend is likely to face rejection at the recent high. Besides, sellers will emerge to push prices down. The index price is above the 21-day SMA and 50 –day SMA which indicates a further upward move. USOIL (WTI) Medium-term bias: Bullish On the 4-hour chart, the index is in an uptrend. WTI price has broken above the resistance at level 83.00. Meanwhile, on December 12 uptrend; a retraced candle body tested the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. The retracement indicates that WTI will rise but reverse at level 1.278 Fibonacci extension or $84.22. USOIL – 4 Hour Chart 4-hour Chart Indicators Reading The index is above the 80% range of the daily stochastic. The market has reached the overbought region. Sellers are likely to emerge to push prices down. The 21-day and 50-day SMAs are sloping upward indicating the uptrend. The uptrend will continue to the upside as long as price bars are above the moving averages. General Outlook for USOIL (WTI) USDOL has reached the overbought region of the market but may face rejection at $85.39. The current uptrend is likely to terminate at the previous price level of the market. WTI is trading at $84.39 at press time. Source: https://learn2.trade 
    • ANNUAL FORECAST FOR EURJPY (2022) EURJPY Annual Forecast – Price Is Set to Scale New Heights With a Bullish Flag Formation The annual forecast for EURJPY is for it to scale new heights, having conformed to a bullish flag formation. The bullish flag formation, an offshoot of the triangle pattern, began towards the tail end of 2020 as bulls began to exercise dominance in the market. The market began to recover from the 116.910 support level in May 2020. It pulled back when it first hit the upper border of its triangle pattern and surged through it at the second time of asking, thereby leading to the creation of the flag pattern. EURJPYJPY Significant Zones Supply Zones: 134.150, 140.650, 149.010 Demand Zones: 113.920, 116.910, 127.630 EURJPY Long Term Plan: Bullish A bearish impact is visible annually in the market, notably since 2013. Every time EURJPY makes a bullish move, the move is cut off prematurely and it always leads to a plunge back around the 113.920 demand level. This happened from 2013 to 2016, and then from 2017 to 2020. The result is a triangle-tapered market structure. By June 2020, the price hit the 116.910 demand level and began another ascent, but this time, it eventually broke the triangle pattern on 2021 New Year’s Day. The flag pole was formed as the price surged from 120.920 and was stopped abruptly at 134.150. Subsequently, EURJPY began cranking through a downward channel. This continued into the year 2022. The market forecast is for an upward liquidity flow. The upward signal of the MA Cross is still very valid. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence indicator is showing dwindling bullish bars. This is due to the downward ranging in the market. Its signal lines remain above the zero level. EURJPY Medium Term Plan: Bearish In early 2022, prices are set to drop after hitting the upper border of the ranging channel. The MA Cross is directed down-sideways to show the undulating nature of the current market. The same can be said for the MACD indicator. The annual forecast is towards the end of the year 2022 into early 2023 when the bullish flag pattern is anticipated to drive the market upward towards 140.650. Source: https://learn2.trade 
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.