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dbntina

VWAP Indicator with 1SD and 2SD bands

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thrunner, thanks for that info. I had not realized the start time changed things THAT much. I figured the pre market volume would be swamped after the open and not change things to much of a degree.

Blowfish, that is kind of what I figured as far as those two charts go. In some sense aren't some of these algorithms just updating too slow for how many times we see price under the 3rd std dev? I mean if getting under the 2nd band is a 98% move away from the mean, shouldnt price virtually never get under the 3rd band? Thats pretty much what investors r/t "proprietary" calculation does. Even if more accurate, maybe its less usefull as price then just rides down the band on a big move from what i've seen so far.

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format study -> scaling have you selected 'same as symbol'?
Thank you! It always pays to ask somebody who knows the program. :doh: This type of scaling (to symbol) is default in TS but MC defaults to 'screen', something most new users of MC probably don't know about. Attached please find the revised png with scaling to 'same as symbol'.

5aa70e3215d69_MCproperscalesymbol2008-01-10_085356.png.eb32c4354bfe14b06745eab0e2cc7185.png

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Below see VWAP indicators for ES H08 for JAN 10. ONe is from the build in vwap function in Ensign...the other is from the VWAP indicator posted here. You will notice that the Ensign one seems wrong as it has gone way past the 3rd std deviation. I am not 100% sure though...here they are and here are my settings. They all have their start time at 4:30 globex open on Jan9.

 

Does any match other peoples trading software?

 

Here is the TS code...(was posted on the TS forum)..

I modified the original to do (open+high+low+close)/4

-------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[LegacyColorValue = true];

 

{***********************************************************************************************

 

Coded by dbntina/boxmeister 8/2/2007

 

Used the VWAP_H code provided by Tradestation on 02/07/2003 Topic ID = 6735 Thanks Guys!

 

Added the computation for variance and the Standard Deviation to combine into one indicator

plot and this indicator plots the VWAP, SD1 bands, SD2 bands

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Applicable now for Globex charts, made code a little bit faster, added SD3 band and formated.

Changings by swisstrader 08/14/2007

 

***********************************************************************************************}

 

 

vars: currSess(0),

currVol(0),

avPrice(0),

oneThird( Reciprocal(3) ),

PriceW(0),

VolumW(0),

barCount(0),

ii(0),

wgtVol(0),

diffPc(0),

sqrPrc(0),

indivVariance(0),

sumIndivVarnc(0),

VariancePop(0),

VolWAPValue(0),

VolWAPVariance(0),

VolWAPSD(0),

uppSD1(0),

lowSD1(0),

uppSD2(0),

lowSD2(0),

uppSD3(0),

lowSD3(0);

 

 

if BarType < 2 then

 

{Session change}

currSess = CurrentSession(0);

{used Volume}

currVol = Ticks;

{Price input series}

 

avPrice = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4;

 

{resets at SessionChange}

if currSess <> currSess[1] then begin

PriceW = 0;

VolumW = 0;

barCount = -1;

VolWAPValue = 0;

end;

 

PriceW = PriceW + currVol*avPrice;

VolumW = VolumW + currVol ;

barCount = barCount + 1;

if VolumW > 0 then

VolWAPValue = PriceW / VolumW;

 

{Calculate the individual variance terms for each intraday bar starting with the current

bar and looping back through each bar to the start bar. The terms are each normalized

according to the Variance formula for each level of volume at each price bar }

sumIndivVarnc = 0;

for ii = 0 to barCount begin

wgtVol = currVol[ii]/VolumW;

diffPc = avPrice[ii]-VolWAPValue;

sqrPrc = Square(diffPc);

indivVariance = wgtVol * sqrPrc;

sumIndivVarnc = sumIndivVarnc + indivVariance;

end;

 

{hand-over summary of individual variance and calculate StdDev}

VolWAPVariance = sumIndivVarnc;

VolWAPSD = SquareRoot(VolWAPVariance);

 

{calculation of StdDevBands}

uppSD1 = VolWAPValue + VolWAPSD;

lowSD1 = VolWAPValue - VolWAPSD;

uppSD2 = uppSD1 + VolWAPSD;

lowSD2 = lowSD1 - VolWAPSD;

uppSD3 = uppSD2 + VolWAPSD;

lowSD3 = lowSD2 - VolWAPSD;

 

{plot}

Plot1(VolWAPValue, "VWAP");

Plot2(uppSD1, "VWAP_SD1_Up");

Plot3(lowSD1, "VWAP_SD1_Dn");

Plot4(uppSD2, "VWAP_SD2_Up");

Plot5(lowSD2, "VWAP_SD2_Dn");

Plot6(uppSD3, "VWAP_SD3_Up");

Plot7(lowSD3, "VWAP_SD3_Dn");

vwap_ensign_settings_jan10.thumb.PNG.c4f0793452d9d6d9847c5f5432d70489.PNG

vwap_ensign_wrong_jan_10.thumb.PNG.0348cb796ee9872433d8ca10bf782132.PNG

vwap_ts_jan_10_correct.thumb.PNG.a06ad170fb1195f285c8806ac913b739.PNG

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ONe is from the build in vwap function in Ensign
As Darth and others may have pointed out, the Ensign VWAP looks wrong, perhaps you should ask Ensign for the code and/or a better explanation. I had previously looked at the code by Swisstrader that you posted above https://www.tradestation.com/Discussions/Topic.aspx?Topic_ID=66875 . The TS results looks right and is nearly identical to the dbtina VWAP code (OP here) if accounted for the start time (the change
avPrice = (High+Low+Close)*oneThird <--> avPrice = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4
makes little difference and is perhaps faster).

 

For what it is worth, the VWAP on Ninjatrader looks incorrect as well.

5aa70e32373d5_ntvwap2008-01-10_223759.jpg.2a9166d8fae846829d380e88390e6e46.jpg

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Just interested in how you guys know which VWAP is the 'right' reference here?

The VWAP forumla isn't that complex, so there shouldn't be that many variations.

For the ensign version being wrong, jerry sure gets a lot out of it don't you think?

 

As for the market having to stay within the 3rd standard dev because of a normal distributions assumes to be the case ... probably the markets aren't normally distributed all the time.

 

Let's assume that you have a narrow value area and suddenly price breaks out at the end of the day. The VWAP has averaged volume * price over the whole day so a few more bars make hardly any difference, it's easy for price to pull away from the VWAP on strong momentum.

Because of averaging volume * price, the VWAP will considerably lag behind price on a trend day, nothing new here.

 

StdDev formula.

 

Chebyshev's inequality entails that for (nearly) all random distributions, not just normal ones, we have the following weaker bounds:

At least 50% of the values are within 1.41 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 75% of the values are within 2 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 89% of the values are within 3 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 94% of the values are within 4 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 96% of the values are within 5 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 97% of the values are within 6 standard deviations from the mean.

At least 98% of the values are within 7 standard deviations from the mean.

Edited by Sparrow

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Just interested in how you guys know which VWAP is the 'right' reference here?
You are correct in saying we don't know what is 'right'. We also don't know Jerry's Ensign setup parameters and lj2500 could have set it up incorrectly in his Ensign studies. I should have pointed out to LJ that the Ensign study for VWAP is here, although I have never used Ensign: http://ensign.editme.com/vwap

In that URL, the VWAP looks 'correct' in the observation that the SD lines are expanding in a root mean square relationship to the VWAP line (much as a Bollinger bands being 2SD away from a MA of price). That is they are not a fixed width linear channels away from the VWAP. Here is the picture from Ensign:

 

vwap-1.png

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My suspission is that the TS version doesn't use the real average in the SD calculation, however I haven't invested a lot of time in understanding the code.

PriceW = PriceW + currVol*avPrice;

VolumW = VolumW + currVol ;

VolWAPValue = PriceW / VolumW;

.

.

.

diffPc = avPrice[ii]-VolWAPValue;

 

e.g. avg of 9/5 + 5/3 not equal 14/8;

 

My NT version SDs look very narrow compared to the others, although the 1st SD has held up price very well ... most likely a bug somewhere.

Edited by Sparrow

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The VWAP has a very long memory because it hasn't got a period, that's why it takes a whole lot to change the width of the SDs after some time.

Ensign doesn't look so different from the NT version, problem is that if one SD is off the error gets multiplied with each next SD. Small differences can have a huge impact.

 

Therefore it would be interesting to know if the VWAP has been setup equally in all charts. The only parameter is start time, so nothing much to choose from.

Just trying eliminate one source of error here.

 

Cheers

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I haven't tried the VWAP from the link trunner supplied (yet). That one is a design your own study. Ensign has added vwap as a standard study now, so there should no longer be a need to use the dyo. Although, I will try it over the weekend. I would have thought the ensign designers would have compared the two.

 

As for jperl's version. I have asked him he said there are minor differences between his version and the built in vwap study in ensign (I took this as he developed his own study by coding it himself). I don't know if his JAN 10 chart looks like mine. JPERL, if you are reading...do you mind making a comment?

 

It looks like we don't know what the "real" one should look like (I guess the institutional traders' version)...how are we going to figure this out? I guess we can compare all of ours together...can others post their vwap FOR JAN-10? With the start time being the globex open of 4:30pm on Jan9?

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I haven't tried the VWAP from the link trunner supplied (yet). That one is a design your own study. Ensign has added vwap as a standard study now, so there should no longer be a need to use the dyo. Although, I will try it over the weekend. I would have thought the ensign designers would have compared the two.

 

As for jperl's version. I have asked him he said there are minor differences between his version and the built in vwap study in ensign (I took this as he developed his own study by coding it himself). I don't know if his JAN 10 chart looks like mine. JPERL, if you are reading...do you mind making a comment?

 

It looks like we don't know what the "real" one should look like (I guess the institutional traders' version)...how are we going to figure this out? I guess we can compare all of ours together...can others post their vwap FOR JAN-10? With the start time being the globex open of 4:30pm on Jan9?

 

Can't comment at this time because I am out of town and won't be back until Jan. 15th. If someone reminds me, I will take a look at the data when I get back.

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I have had a chance to take a look at the Ensign internal plot for VWAP. To be clear, I do not use this code, but wrote my own using Ensigns ESPL language.

Here is what I found:

 

For VWAP, Ensigns computation and mine are dead nuts on. No difference.

For the SD of the VWAP, there appears to be minor differences between my code results and Ensigns for most charts that I have looked at, EXCEPT FOR ES DATA of JAN 10. The comparison is shown in the two charts below:

 

In the first 1 min chart for the time period from the 9:30 EST open to about 11:30, the SD's are very close.

HOWEVER, from about 11:30 on, there is considerable disagreement as shown in the second chart.

I do not know the source of this disagreement, but it appears to be related to the large increase in volume occurring after 11:30.

I have submitted this info to Howard Arrington to look at, but I have not heard back from him.

If any of you use ensign, you might wish to nudge him about this to get a response.

ESJan10_930.thumb.jpg.6d325c3355d52b43fecf2b3a98f8057c.jpg

ESJan10_1130.thumb.jpg.11dc4d3c22435dbbb13c552bc5d74170.jpg

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Thank you very much for the update and explanation, Jerry. Attached please find two plots of the same period in question, based on TS data and DBtina VWAP TS code, one with start time of 0930 and the other with start time of 0000 EST. The DBtina based code generated similar results to your ESPL study.

 

However, VWAP & SDs were about 1 point lowered with start time calculation at midnight most likely because of substantial volume prior to RTH (regular hrs).

5aa70e367b670_ESJan102008-01-26_144017.png.930e1123e82e55e9d767054d1d3694f7.png

5aa70e367f466_ESJan10starttime00002008-01-26_144429.png.87c428ccb72bdc8f7ab8a197d77bb7e5.png

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jperl, thank you for taking some time to give us your response and comparison of your vwap+sd and ensign's (confirming what I thought - that the ts vwap/sd code posted here and yours seems correct and ensign's seems off). I have also emailed ensign with the info that has been posted here, showing the discrepency between theirs and the posted vwap code. Maybe they will be able to shed some light on the differences.

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However, VWAP & SDs were about 1 point lowered with start time calculation at midnight most likely because of substantial volume prior to RTH (regular hrs).

 

Yes thrunner, if you start the VWAP computation prior to the regular open, you will see some differences. Usually these differences are small because the premarket volume is low.

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Hi Guys ,

First thanks Jerry for the great thread on Market Statistics . I just finished reading all 11 parts.Great Job !

I use Tradestation for my charting and i've tried to find an .eld for the PVP everywhere with no luck..

I know it has been coded by Dbntina but i see he only posted the VWAP with the SD bands.I read in his posts that he was gonna email it to whoever asked for it but he hasn't been around this board for a while now so i can't get a hold of him .If anyone else has it I would appreciate if you could post it

Thanks

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I was just wondering if any has done the code for PVP? If not, would one of the coding guru's on TL be willing to take that on for us? Thanks for all the work on the VWAP.

 

David

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I have had a chance to take a look at the Ensign internal plot for VWAP. To be clear, I do not use this code, but wrote my own using Ensigns ESPL language.

Here is what I found:

 

For VWAP, Ensigns computation and mine are dead nuts on. No difference.

For the SD of the VWAP, there appears to be minor differences between my code results and Ensigns for most charts that I have looked at, EXCEPT FOR ES DATA of JAN 10. The comparison is shown in the two charts below:

 

In the first 1 min chart for the time period from the 9:30 EST open to about 11:30, the SD's are very close.

HOWEVER, from about 11:30 on, there is considerable disagreement as shown in the second chart.

I do not know the source of this disagreement, but it appears to be related to the large increase in volume occurring after 11:30.

I have submitted this info to Howard Arrington to look at, but I have not heard back from him.

If any of you use ensign, you might wish to nudge him about this to get a response.

 

 

Jerry,

 

Here is the problem as I see it and currently a deadlock for me. I've posted on another thread but haven't had a response just yet.

 

Depending on how the source code for real time data is implemented for various feeds this might differ. IB feed is sampled data and continuously updates volume to catch up with the ticks. Same with OpenTick. The bottom line means the bands will differ drastically based on backfilled data (which should be total volume accounted for) vs data that was accumulated throughout the day (sampled ticks and their respective sizes). Additionally, since IB data is sampled, price bars may also differ in a backfill compared to what was accumulated live, but this would only have a minor impact on VWAP. As for SD, the volume change would have a drastic impact. Consider 2 numbers with the same average but with different highs and lows (same average, completely different SD).

At the moment I am stuck, it seems that OpenTick feed for YM (streaming) is accurate, but backfill mucks it all up.

Depending on implementation, IB feed can/cannot be good for accuracy. Do they use Volume updates as volume or is volume derived from and accumulated from every tick sent? If using volume updates then you have a situation where you have increased the weighting but have incorrectly attributed that weighting to the current bar! (remember a voume update means more volume but at what prices??)

 

This is my understanding so far....:crap:

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Jerry,

 

Here is the problem as I see it and currently a deadlock for me. I've posted on another thread but haven't had a response just yet.

 

Depending on how the source code for real time data is implemented for various feeds this might differ. IB feed is sampled data and continuously updates volume to catch up with the ticks. Same with OpenTick. The bottom line means the bands will differ drastically based on backfilled data (which should be total volume accounted for) vs data that was accumulated throughout the day (sampled ticks and their respective sizes). Additionally, since IB data is sampled, price bars may also differ in a backfill compared to what was accumulated live, but this would only have a minor impact on VWAP. As for SD, the volume change would have a drastic impact. Consider 2 numbers with the same average but with different highs and lows (same average, completely different SD).

At the moment I am stuck, it seems that OpenTick feed for YM (streaming) is accurate, but backfill mucks it all up.

Depending on implementation, IB feed can/cannot be good for accuracy. Do they use Volume updates as volume or is volume derived from and accumulated from every tick sent? If using volume updates then you have a situation where you have increased the weighting but have incorrectly attributed that weighting to the current bar! (remember a voume update means more volume but at what prices??)

 

This is my understanding so far....:crap:

 

You raise some interesting questions, with unfortunately no interesting answers. I think what is need here is some kind of comparison of various data feeds on the tick level to see how they compare. I have not looked into this so I can't provide any guidance.

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can any one help me to plot VWAP in amibroker?

 

This is VWAP with SDs and (last value of) PVP for AmiBroker which I programed some time ago. It doesn't plot volume distribution, because AmiBroker can plot it on itself since version 5.20. I don't know how fast PC do you have, but the PVP calculation is quite demanding. So if you can settle for VWAP and SDs only and use AmiBroker's daily Volume at Price Overlay to judge PVP by eye, you can erase the part of code starting with ///// PVP /////. The code will be much faster then.

Also please note that I use black background, so change colors in code if needed.

 

ND = Day() != Ref(Day(), -1);

///// VWAP and SDs /////

P = (H + L) / 2;
VWP = P * V;
BI = BarIndex();
BeginBI = ValueWhen(ND, BI);
BeginBI = BeginBI[barCount -1];
if(BeginBI < BarCount - 1)
{
InRange = BI >= BeginBI;
CumV = Cum(V * InRange);
CumVWP = Cum(VWP * InRange);
VWAP = CumVWP / CumV;
S = Cum(Ref(CumV, -1) * V * (P - Ref(VWAP, -1))^2 / CumV);
Variance = S / CumV;
SD = sqrt(Variance);
VWAP = IIf(InRange, VWAP, Null);
Plot(VWAP, "VWAP", colorYellow, styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP + SD, "+1SD", colorGreen, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP - SD, "-1SD", colorRed, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP + 2*SD, "+2SD", colorSeaGreen, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP - 2*SD, "-2SD", colorOrange, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP + 3*SD, "+3SD", colorPaleGreen, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
Plot(VWAP - 3*SD, "-3SD", colorLightOrange, styleDashed + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
}

///// PVP /////

BarSinceND = BarsSince(ND);
iStart = Max(BarCount - 1 - BarSinceND[barCount - 1], 0);
Top = HighestSince(ND, High);
Bot = LowestSince(ND, Low);
Range = Top - Bot;
BoxesInRange = Range / TickSize + 1;
VolUnit = Volume / ((High - Low) / TickSize + 1);
VUcount = 0;
MaxVUcount = 0;
PVP = Null;

if(iStart > 0)
{
for(i = iStart; i < BarCount; i++)
{
jShift = round((Bot[i - 1] - Low[i]) / TickSize);
if((BoxesInRange[i] < BarCount))
	{
	if(jShift > 0)
		{
		LastVUcount = VUcount;
		VUcount = 0;
		for(j = jShift; j < BoxesInRange[i]; j++)
			{
			VUCount[j] = LastVUCount[j - jShift];
			}
		}
	jStart = round((Low[i] - Bot[i]) / TickSize);
	jEnd = round((High[i] - Bot[i]) / TickSize);
	for(j = jStart; j <= jEnd; j++)
		{
		VUcount[j] = VUcount[j] + VolUnit[i];
		MaxVUcount = Max(MaxVUcount, VUcount[j]);
		}
	}
}
for(j = 0; j < BoxesInRange[barCount - 1]; j++)
{
if(MaxVUcount == VUcount[j])
	PVP = Bot[barCount - 1] + j * TickSize;
}
Plot(PVP, "PVP", colorTurquoise, styleDots + styleNoTitle + styleNoRescale);
}

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VWAP for esignal...You can get it here:

 

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=Formulas-EFS2&groupid=10

 

look for AMVWAP2...(here it is attached)..you also need the amstudies function library found here:

http://share.esignal.com/groupcontents.jsp?folder=Formulas-Libraries&groupid=10

 

remember to copy the AMSTUDIES.efslib to

C:\Program Files\eSignal\FunctionLibrary\*

 

thats it.

amvwap.zip

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Once again today, USOil prices experienced a correction and has remained under pressure, retesting the 50-day EMA at $81.00 as we moving into the weekend. Hence, despite the Israel’s retaliatory strike on Iran, sentiments stabilized following reports suggesting a measured response aimed at avoiding further escalation. Brent crude futures witnessed a more than 4% leap, driven by concerns over potential disruptions to oil supplies in the Middle East, only to subsequently erase all gains. Similarly with USOIL, UKOIL hovers just below $87 per barrel, marginally below Thursday’s closing figures. Nevertheless, volatility is expected to continue in the market as several potential risks loom:   Disruption to the Strait of Hormuz: The possibility of Iran disrupting navigation through the vital shipping lane, is still in play. The Strait of Hormuz serves as the Persian Gulf’s primary route to international waters, with approximately 21 million barrels of oil passing through daily. Recent events, including Iran’s seizure of an Israel-linked container ship, underscore the geopolitical sensitivity of the region. Tougher Sanctions on Iran: Analysts speculate that the US may impose stricter sanctions on Iranian oil exports or intensify enforcement of existing restrictions. With global oil consumption reaching 102 million barrels per day, Iran’s production of 3.3 million barrels remains significant. Recent actions targeting Venezuelan oil highlight the potential for increased pressure on Iranian exports. OPEC Output Increases: Despite the desire for higher prices, OPEC members such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have constrained output in recent years. However, sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel could prompt concerns about demand and incentivize increased production. The OPEC may opt to boost oil output should tensions escalate further and prices surge. Ukraine Conflict: Amidst the focus on the Middle East, markets overlooking Russia’s actions in Ukraine. Potential retaliatory strikes by Kyiv on Russian oil infrastructure could impact exports, adding further complexity to global oil markets.   Technical Analysis USOIL is marking one of the steepest weekly declines witnessed this year after a brief period of consolidation. The breach below the pivotal support level of 84.00, coupled with the descent below the mid of the 4-month upchannel, signals a possible shift in market sentiment towards a bearish trend reversal. Adding to the bearish outlook are indications such as the downward slope in the RSI. However, the asset still hold above the 50-day EMA which coincides also with the mid of last year’s downleg, with key support zone at $80.00-$81.00. If it breaks this support zone, the focus may shift towards the 200-day EMA and 38.2% Fib. level at $77.60-$79.00. Conversely, a rejection of the $81 level and an upside potential could see the price returning back to $84.00. A break of the latter could trigger the attention back to the December’s resistance, situated around $86.60. A breakthrough above this level could ignite a stronger rally towards the $89.20-$90.00 zone. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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