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Hi folks,

I will be posting my stock setups that I will be taking from 1:30p to 4p EST M-F. My trading is heavily influenced by Thalestrader, who has left a treasure trove of knowledge here at TL. My stock setups will target gapped stocks (S&P 500 constituents priced over $20) that consolidate and continue in the direction of the gap in the afternoon. Entries will include 123s and pullbacks to the 5 min 21 EMA. Please note I am currently on demo mode.

I believe the keys to success in trading are really just a few simple things:

  • Embracing the probabilistic mindset, which includes taking every valid setup regardless of how I feel about the outcome and not changing strategy based on recent results.
  • Cutting losers quick and letting winners run. 
  • Unconditional self love and acceptance. This is probably the most important thing and the ONLY secret there is. By being ok with making mistakes, being wrong, taking losers, giving self money, one can finally learn to trade without fear. This is probably where most people take the most time to learn (10 years for me).

Here we go. Blue line denotes entry, red line are my stops adjusted to as close to real time as possible. 

Today: -41c, +13c, +0

 

Best,

J

 

 

 

 

20190129 XRX.png

20190129 HOG.png

Edited by jfw215

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Today was the first full day I started with this method. I learned quite a bit. First, I realized that the criteria I had set for this batch of mechanical trades were too loose and is too subjective to emotional bias. After reviewing the charts, I realized it is much easier to mechanically test by buying intermediate consolidations above the MA followed by new highs. If I miss the initial entry, I can take a secondary entry if at least a box of 4 bars have formed (thank you Darvas). I will then use a volatility stop indicator for exits. Up to two trades per instrument per day. No trade if price is right below R for longs and S for shorts. I'm in the first stage of becoming a consistently profitable trader (as described in Mark Douglas' books). In this stage, I will focus on taking mechanical entries and exits to strengthen awareness in probabilistic mindset. 

Second, I'm surprised looking at the charts that buying new highs actually work on average. Every new high break of the intermediate consolidation gave a nice running start. yet during the actual breakout, my mind was filled with doubt. Fascinating mind. By using volatility stop, I can make this exercise easier for me. The goal is not to focus on making money but focus on mastering the skills of execution without hindrance of memory based mental bias, also known as hope and fear. 

Third, I'm surprised that no shorts triggered today. Looking at the NQ, I can see it was all day up. It's also fascinating how NQ danced around the S/R lines I had drew in from the previous days. I already miss watching NQ but I'm going to stay focused on my stock strategy. 

Fourth, in the afternoon, when NQ rocketed, all of my Nasdaq stock trades made large moves at the same time. Amazon, Apple, ADP. Going forward I'll make sure not to have more than 2 units of risk exposure on at the same time. So only take a new trade after stop have moved up for protection.

Fifth, my discretionary stop movement can really be improved. I'm going to use volatility based stops for now because I'm going to focus on taking entries for now. The actual trading results (in units of risk based on stop size) today would be -.2, -1, -.5, -.5, +1.1, 0, 0, 0 for a total net of -1.1R. 

Tomorrow is going to be great day. I'm looking forward to testing this system and develop consistency in being a successful trader.

Best,

J

 

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20190130 NQ.png

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Today was the first day on the revised mechanical strategy. At one point I had 7 orders in the books ready to go and market ended up triggering zero trades. I was very calm for most of the part of the session and did not stray from my trading plan. I'm extremely proud of my execution of my trading plan today even though no trades executed. Happy Trading!

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I was not well prepared today. I felt like I was too distracted with looking at longer term swing strategy at the same time as trading intraday. Ended up having 1 entry on AMZN. There were about 3 other trades that netted in small losses but were not taken. 

20190201 AMZN 5min Post.PNG

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20190201 VLO 5min.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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Just 1 entry today, Saw the previous day's R flip to S, with room from the gap to run up. Waited 3 mins, price was stalling few pennies below entry. Took me myself out of the market. Good trade.

 

20190204 GD 1min Post.PNG

20190204 GD 5min Pre.PNG

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I woke up for the opening today and learned quite a bit. The strongest stocks at the open tend to get the most attention and therefore give you a nice pop. I didn't trade them but watched. I ended up taking 5 trades. 4 scratches and 1 went all the way up all day. I can see why this method is really tough on the normal psyche. You have more losses than gains on average and you gotta let the winners run. The result was actually fantastic. 

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First day back from Fiji. 2 small losses today. Nothing much I could have done differently. Good trades, good exits. There was a second trade on ANET (blue line). I skipped that trade by mistake. At the time of entry, I thought it would not work because the first one didn't work. That is a classic prediction error. I cannot know what will happen next. The goal is not to predict but to execute properly. 

20190215 ANET.PNG

20190215 MCO.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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1 trade today. +137bps. I missed another big runner by 10 seconds. It's all good. posting both charts. I'm glad to be back. I do notice I made a mental error on my exit. I was focusing on how the last 2 trades I had were small losses, which made me want to tighten my stop on this trade just a tad too soon. I then said oh its been 30mins since open so I can tighten my stop now. That is me trying to make up a rule on the spot. Next time this comes to mind, I will actively disconnect the two. Overall, I am feeling pretty good about it. I'm excited that I'm near complete of collecting sample of 20 trades for the first batch. 

 

20190219 FCX 5min.PNG

20190219 ROKU 5min.PNG

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Today had 3 trades, + 73 bps. The 2nd red dot on ALB was an error, somehow 1 share got executed at the lower price. I started new batch of trades today. The tweak was the exit is now based on trailing exit instead of manually calling it. I found it to be extremely uncomfortable as I sat through each retracement on DPZ. To see profit retrace back to zero or negative is associated with much pain. It feels as if it's a permanent loss. My goal is to execute my trading plan and not trade based on my emotions. I am very proud of the 2nd exit on DPZ for 170bps. I will do my best to continue this work. I do notice I may be giving back a bit too much on my losers, I will not change anything until the next batch of trades. 

5c6ee636c527c_20190221DPZ5min.thumb.PNG.033ee47091c4a7f62f2e523cf86fcf55.PNG

 

20190221 ALB 5min.PNG

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I traded alot today. 9 trades, 8 losers and BEs, 1 runner that paid for them all. Gotta keep swinging! totaled 240 bps before commission. The first winner on W, I did not count - it was a mistake that led to profit. I felt like a machine, kept pulling the trigger, watch the 1min chart, see it doesn't go anywhere, take my small loss... over and over... then one takes off... Let it run... the whole time I was thinking I hope that the one winner will pay for all the losers. I was tempted to close out the winner early. I had no idea that the payoff distribution for this strategy would be so extreme - 8 tiny losses before hitting a big win. Pays to keep the losses tiny and keep swinging. 

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20190222 Z 5min.PNG

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While at the gym today, I remembered that I passed on 2 trades this morning that both turned out to be high runners. I literally had the thought "this one is no good" as if I would know the future.  It's easy to overlook it but this is where the awareness and probabilistic mindset comes into play. I realize I have been trying to filter out losers instead of taking the setups. Next week, I will focus on taking all trades instead of filtering. 

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Today started out really auspicious. I was in 4 trades that started to go in the direction of my trade. I ended up with 5 BE/ tiny losses that resulted in -38bps. That's less than 1R of actual risk. I feel remarkably good with the way I traded today. I completely followed my entry and exit plans. I let the trades run according to plan. I did notice on WDC as it was coming down to stop me out, I felt pain of loss, thinking I should have moved stop up. I'm becoming very intimate with this feeling of loss as price goes in my favor and comes back to tag me out. It's the price I'm willing to pay to let my winners run. I also notice I was more aligned with stopping myself out early if the trade is showing no progress. In the past, I would give it a bit more room from the perspective of hope. Do not hope price will move in your favor, let the market prove you right immediately or get out. That is the way this strategy works. 

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5 trades today, all small losses amounting to -136bps. I notice all the trades were going into s/r areas that have failed. I will make an adjustment for this for the next batch. Execution wise, I felt a bit frustrated to see nothing worked for a second day. I notice the feelings of disappointment and associating that this trading style "does not work" entering the mind. This is a normal drawdown. The mind likes to extrapolate into the future based on very recent memory and emotions with the intention of avoiding certain emotions and chasing others. I will stay the course for this batch of trades. I also notice I slept late last night and was easier to get to frustration. 

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I took 5 trades today for -73 bps. I made a mistake on BBY that I want to further explore. You'll see this as the 2nd long entry. Up to this point over the last 60 trades, I have never allowed myself to take a loss greater than 50bps. This has helped me to keep my net positive. During this trade, I saw price stall after entry on the 1min, instead of tightening stop or closing out, I was hoping for it to work. I also skipped a trade that would have worked well. I thought "this one is no good". I will remember to remind myself that I can't know which ones will work. It was the 1 out of 5 that would have worked lol. 

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Here's the actual results for Batch 5. It's slightly above water. The best part is even with 25 roughly BE's just having 2 decent size winners keeps you in the positive. This game is all about impeccable defense.

20190227 Batch 5 Results.PNG

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Posted (edited)

3/1/19

Took 7 trades for -105 bps gross, avg loss was 15 bps. After the morning was over, I was quite happy with the way I executed today. I was tight on risk control, yes, there was one that ran but that's ok. If I start to loosen on risk control to catch that one, I'll fall back into the trap. As I was driving to work, thoughts of doubt if this method works entered my mind. I reminded myself that I'm looking backwards to make a deduction of the future that I do not know. I will keep consistently execute in this manner. Also, SP is at a major R area on the daily and PA has been very compressed. The nature of this may be attributable to lesser number of my trades working out. Do I know when PA will move in my favor again? Nope. Does it matter? Nope. I am starting to see the genius and simplicity of the underlying principles more and more -- focus on keeping avg loss small and let the winners run. Don't worry about your win rate, that will fluctuate but do keep a running average of the last 100 trades or so. Focus on consistent daily execution and gratitude. It's simple, don't over think it, don't change strategy after losing days. Focus on if the method is sound. 

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20190301 MU 5min.PNG

Edited by jfw215

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1 trade today, -.78 bps. I read more of Thales logs over the weekend and realized I was totally not paying attention to S/R when it comes to morning trades. I started to draw them in as soon as the day start. The idea is to wait for price to clear S/R areas before buying/selling. This is quite an intricate task as you're looking at micro price swings as price moves through S/R. I attached a few chart examples from this morning. I'm starting to see that without S/R, I'm basically breaking even. With S/R, I would like to get this to a positive expectancy.

20190304 AMAT 5min.PNG

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20190304 ETN 5min.PNG

20190304 FB 5min.PNG

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20190304 GE 5min.PNG

20190304 GPS 5min.PNG

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