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By HFblogNews · Posted
Date : 29th September 2020.Time for the first face-off.The first presidential debate is due to take place today, ahead of an election that is turning into a major event risk. At the same time markets are waiting for developments on further US stimulus measures as US Democrats released a USD 2.2 trillion proposal in a bid to break the deadlock in talks with Republicans. The debate is at 01:00 GMT while the focus turns on any potential market fallout especially as it coincides with indications of a possible approval of the fiscal stimulus but crucial with the approach of month- and quarter-end which could exacerbate volatility.Additionally in the US this week, there is also the threat of massive layoffs/furloughs from the airlines come October 1 as the CARES package provisions expire. Data remains thin for now. September consumer confidence headlines Tuesday, and is followed Wednesday with the ADP private payroll report, September ISM, vehicle sales, August income and consumption. Thursday has the high frequency jobless claims before Friday’s September nonfarm payrolls release.Now in regards to tonight’s debate, the importance of it does not rely solely due to the fact that is the every first debate but mainly because it might present the clear winner especially this year in which the candidates have not been as highly visible with limited campaigns done because of Covid-19.The candidates will be questioned for 90 minutes, without commercial breaks, according to the Commission on Presidential Debates. Ahead of the debate the vulnerable one look to be Trump following a New York time report that the president paid no income tax for 11 years. However is an excellent brutally effective debater so it will interesting to see how he will overcome any attacks. Please note that in some states voting has already started via mail or in person.The debate will take place at Case Western Reserve University and Cleveland Clinic in Cleveland, while the topics selected by Wallace, moderator of the first 2020 presidential debate, are the: The Trump and Biden Records The Supreme Court Covid-19 The Economy Race and Violence in our Cities The Integrity of the Election Below you can also find the latest national polls prior the debate.Based on UBS research below we enclose the campaign policy platform of each Party:What is the 2020 Republican Party platform?President Trump abandoned the usual practice of endorsing a lengthy campaign policy platform in conjunction with the GOP national nominating convention. Instead, he released an abbreviated written agenda for a planned second term in office. The GOP policy statement is largely aspirational, with fewer details than one is accustomed to seeing from a presidential candidate. The president’s proposed fiscal policies include additional tax cuts for individuals and federal tax credits and deductions for corporations that repatriate jobs to the US from overseas locations. The statement also explicitly supports additional capital gains tax relief through an expansion of the Opportunity Zone program.Numerous provisions from the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) are scheduled to expire at the end of 2025, but the president does not discuss how the resulting tax hikes will be averted. Absent additional congressional action, the individual income tax cuts, an increase in the standard deduction, and the expanded child tax credit will all revert to prior levels in just over five years. Voters are left to assume that the president will be able to convince Congress to make the tax cuts permanent.The policy statement, which was released in conjunction with his acceptance speech, also focuses on the adoption of a more adversarial posture toward China, strict enforcement of immigration laws, and support for law enforcement personnel. While all three are viewed by the GOP as winning campaign strategies, the reference to “ending our reliance on China” suggests that the president is willing to continue to use tariffs as a tool of foreign policy if elected to a second term. He has threatened to selectively impose tariffs upon, and to strip government contracts from, companies that refuse to relocate their operations to the US.Meanwhile, in a rare instance of tacit agreement with his challenger, the president reaffirmed a desire to cut prescription drug prices, lower healthcare insurance premiums, and require coverage of all preexisting conditions. On the whole, the impact of the president’s policies on Treasury receipts (and on the US economy generally) is difficult to calculate. Whether or not this is purposeful is debatable, but the inevitable conclusion is that a second Trump administration would be similar to the first and forced to rely on deficit financing to accomplish its goals.What is the 2020 Democratic Party platform?In contrast to the president’s abridged policy statement, the Democratic Party platform is a protracted recitation of policies as disparate as the need for federal bankruptcy reform, a Green New Deal, and reinvestment in rural America. The Biden campaign has not released a consolidated fiscal plan but instead weaved his call for higher taxes to partially fund a series of spending proposals related to infrastructure investment, climate change, and an expansion of healthcare coverage. At its core, however, the Biden campaign is focused on strengthening the federal regulatory regime, reversing many of the provisions of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, and increasing federal funding of long-time Democratic policy priorities.The former vice president advocates an increase in the highest marginal tax rate to 39.6%, and higher payroll taxes for individuals earning more than USD 400,000 a year. He also proposes to tax capital gains at the same rate as ordinary income for taxpayers earning more than USD 1 million. The corporate tax rate is targeted for an increase, albeit less than the rate prevalent before the enactment of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. The corporate tax rate would increase from 21% to 28%, and an alternative minimum tax of 15% would be levied on companies that report more than USD 100 million in book income.The Democratic campaign platform also takes aim at the estate tax by recommending a reduction in the exemption to USD 3.5 million and the elimination of the stepped-up basis rule. Tax preferences for the fossil fuel industry would be eliminated, while those for energy efficiency would be increased. With the exception of the payroll tax increase, most of Biden’s fiscal policy platform could be implemented with a majority vote in the Senate through budget reconciliation.The Tax Policy Center has estimated that Biden’s tax proposals would increase federal revenue by about USD 4 trillion between 2021 and 2030, or 1.5% of GDP over a decade.1 Roughly half of the revenue gain would be derived from higher taxes on US households, with the remainder coming from businesses and corporations. The Tax Foundation expects the Biden tax plan to reduce after-tax income for the top 1% of taxpayers by 7.8%. The top 5% would see their after-tax income drop by 1.1%, with diminishing reductions thereafter as income declines.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex -
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BITCOIN STRENGTHENS CORRELATION WITH STOCK MARKET Over recent days, Bitcoin (BTC) has been forging a strong correlation to the equities market once again and it has been observed that this occurs usually when global uncertainty is rife. Currently, investors are wracked with fears over the dwindling prospects of second domestic stimulus measures in the US, coupled with the weaning possibility of a sharp economic recovery. Also, the upcoming US presidential elections are adding to the growing uncertainty surrounding the markets. These fears will likely remain unsolved in the near-term, making further choppiness in the equities market very possible. That said, Bitcoin will likely get caught up in the mix, giving its correlation to the stock market. Meanwhile, an On-Chain analyst has said that he expects the Bitcoin-Equities correlation to fade in the coming months. He explained that subsequent sharp declines in equities will eventually stop pulling Bitcoin lower as the crypto reaches its lowest technically possible levels. BTCUSD – 4-Hour Chart Key BTC Levels to Watch At press time, Bitcoin trades at $10,511, about 0.8% increase in the day. However, it remains trapped in its weekly consolidation range. Last week, bulls attempted to pull the benchmark cryptocurrency out of its downward spiral and ended up taking the price to highs of $11,200. The rejection from that level was decisive and sharp, causing Bitcoin to fall to the level it currently trades at. Meanwhile, the equities market was able to post a modest recovery today, which, as an extension, has given Bitcoin a reprieve for the near-term. Still, the absence of any significant positive development around the US stimulus program or the pandemic-induced economic crisis may continue to burden the cryptocurrency market from rising in the near-term. Total market capital: $333.6 billion Bitcoin market capital: $194 billion Bitcoin dominance: 58% Source: https://learn2.trade -
ETHEREUM (ETH) PRICE ANALYSIS: BATTLES THE RESISTANCE AT $390, EYES THE HIGH AT $420 Key Highlights Ethereum has a fresh target price of $420 The coin is still battling the resistance at $390 Ethereum (ETH) Current Statistics The current price: $381.78 Market Capitalization: $43,016,171,550 Trading Volume: $12,067,100,125 Major supply zones: $280, $320, $360 Major demand zones: $160, $140, $100 Ethereum (ETH) Price Analysis September 20, 2020 From the rejection at the $390 resistance, Ether is falling to the previous low at $378. Each time the market falls it will retrace to the low of $378 and $381. ETH will rise again to retest the $390 resistance. The coin is rising and it has reached $381 at the writing. The crypto has resumed an upward move as it found support above $380. On the downside, if price has retraced and broken below $350, the selling pressure would have persisted. ETH/USD – Daily Chart ETH Technical Indicators Reading The price has earlier broken above the resistance line of the ascending channel. This assures that the rise of the coin will continue. Another aspect is that price has remained above the EMAs. This also indicates that the coin is rising. ETH/USD – 4 Hour Chart Conclusion From the price action on the 4-hour chart, Ethereum is likely to rise if the current resistance is breached. On September 17, the coin was in an upward move. It was resisted at $390 but the last retraced candle tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. This indicates that the market will rise and reach a high of 1.618 Fibonacci extension level or $420 high. Source: https://learn2.trade
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let's wade right on in - 'gun control' is not really about saving lives... just like BLM is not really about saving black lives... https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/09/16/bidens_gun_control_claims_at_odds_with_crime_stats_144221.html
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