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mitsubishi

11 Problems For Beginners You've Never Seen Before

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11 Problems For Beginners You've Never Seen Before

 

1- You don't know anything.

 

2- You don't know what the things are that you need to know

 

3- You don't even know what the things are that you don't need to know.

 

4- Most of the people here don't know anything either, even though they're convinced they do.

 

5- What you don't know sure can hurt you and it will- just as soon as you get off the simulator.

 

6- Most of the people who do know what they're talking about....won't talk about it. (even though the whole point of a forum is to talk about it.)

 

7- If and when you know what you're talking about, you won't talk about it either.

 

8- If the people who knew what they're talking about actually talked about it, you couldn't recognise or appreciate it anyway.

 

10- You are the problem

 

11- Only you can solve the problem....or not (usually, according to statistics)

 

 

Today I will be using a cleaning product that promises to clean the hard to reach, neglected forgotten corners.

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Those were the negatives. Now for the positives.

 

1- You don't know anything

 

If you don't know anything, or not much about trading you have one advantage over those who are further down the road. Since most traders lose over the long run, most of those who are further down the road are closer to failing than you. The soldier killed/injured on the battlefield is a lot worse off than a raw recruit...

 

So at this point in time you are in a better position not to fail than you will be later on, according to the statistics. That is a theoretical statement of course but the bottom line is about turning weaknesses into strengths and disadvantages into edges.

 

I have to go back more than 10 years to recall my thought processes as a beginner, but the base point was writing a list of:

 

1- The knowns

2- The known unknowns.

 

Both lists have the same aim- to build a trading plan that you have complete faith in.

 

Here's what I found. The 'knowns' was a much bigger list than the 'unknowns' and naturally, that was the intention. and kind of inevitable, since there are fewer known unknowns as a beginner in anything.

 

The Knowns

 

Your list must be your list- that's very important, but this was my list.And everything on that list needed to be something the man in the street would have no clue about.I thought it was psychologically important to realise that even the very simple facts I could gather were things that the average person had no clue about, in order to believe that I was working towards becoming an expert.

 

1-The cash market is open for 6.5 hours

 

Does the layman know that? No. Good. How the hell is that an edge? Unknown.. insufficient data. (ID)

 

2- There is only one high and one low every day.

 

(ID)

 

3- The high/low is most often made in the first hour or last hour.

 

4- Price closes at or very near the high/low about 25% of the time.

 

(interesting, potentially useful, that would mean that there is a repeating pattern/cycle at work.) Therefore facts 2 - 4 are potentially part of something bigger.

 

5- Price reacts to key price levels.. daily/weekly monthly.......................

 

And so on, you can see where this was going. Simple, logical,observable useful facts that could potentially lead to a neat little trading plan...

 

Unfortunately, in the next post you'll see how I set about fucking the whole thing up pretty much straight out of the starting gate. And I knew I wasn't exactly exceptional in this regard to say the least:)

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In preparing to become a trader I would compare the early days to a man attempting to perfect the butterfly stroke but then giving a good rendition of a man flailing about in the water as he's being dragged under by a big shark. Pathetic really.

 

But I think the big clue that I would find myself in this scenario is my experience on the simulator with 10k.

 

‘This Is pointless..’

 

I thought, just trade like you intend to trade for real. That lasted about 2 weeks. I had a much better idea. Let's see how fast I can turn this into 1 million. So... after half a dozen attempts I got it up to about 900k before saying, OK, let's stop screwing around, this is pointless..

..Or was it?

One thing it taught me was that if you had sufficient funds (preferably someone else's) and you traded with real balls, full on, all the time, you can in theory make a lot of money really fast (if it was real money) And you can do that with very little real trading knowledge- that's one key point. (Trading experience and knowledge takes a lot longer to accumulate than the ability to make big returns in this (unrealistic for most guys) paradigm).

 

The key point though is that this is the mental aspect that’s at play here. When using real money the tendency might be to want to trade defensively rather than aggressively.-I don’t mean aggressively as in recklessly- but ‘real money’ should not be the main focus should it? The market and the correct strategy should be the focus.

 

Putting this into a real world trading context it could be argued that;

 

Defensive – at the right time is an appropriate strategy for today/this week

 

Defensive- at the wrong time leads to under-performance. For example, pyramiding into a position could be an appropriate strategy, which would better illustrate what I mean by ‘aggressive’

 

Bottom line on this particular point. The market rewards your correct decisions. So if your decision is to be cautious because you’re a beginner and not because it’s the right thing to do right now, then that will contribute to under-performance. Losing money is not the only issue for any trader, under-performing is an issue that doesn’t seem to get discussed on forums very much.

 

So, in your next trade are you playing defensively for the right reason or are you trading ‘scared money’ due to inexperience/lack of funds?

 

‘risk control..risk control’

 

Now, I know that while reading this, your mind is screaming risk control,, risk control. Consider this, risk control doesn’t go out the window at any time, but there’s always a danger that when one is overly focused on one aspect of the trading plan another aspect is being neglected.

 

Under-performance is like an empty hotel room. I can potentially fill the vacancy tomorrow, but the lost opportunity is the issue. You may think that pyramiding is difficult for a day trader.. Pyramiding is not the issue, attempting to do the right thing at the right time is the issue. Maximising the opportunities the market offers is the issue.

 

As I said earlier, I was focused on turning negatives into positives. Screwing around on a simulator was not a wasted exercise since it lead to useful lessons and conclusions. Making the best use of those lessons took a long time though. But that’s pretty much true for most people.

 

Your experience in terms of lessons and conclusions will vary from mine. I would just suggest that you may find useful lessons in places you’re not expecting to find them. I’m willing to bet that, right now, there’s something staring you right in the face that is a big clue to who you are as a trader.

 

So from the first post- 1-You Don't Know Anything

 

You probably know things right now that are more useful to you than you realise or appreciate..

 

In the next post I'll talk about how this was a problem for me and how I solved it.

Edited by mitsubishi

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Sorry to interrupt...

 

You have a good thing working here. To the noobs:

 

Take notes. The man is speaking in generalities for your benefit. Use your imagination in considering what is being transferred, and apply it to your own context and vision.

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Like jpmoneybags, I too hesitate to interject, but re:

...real money ... real world trading context ...

 

Defensive – at the right time ...

 

Defensive- at the wrong time ...

 

...under-performing is an issue that doesn’t seem to get discussed ...

 

... ‘scared money’ due to inexperience/lack of funds...

 

...’risk control...

 

...Screwing around on a simulator was not a wasted exercise since it lead to useful lessons and conclusions. Making the best use of those lessons took a long time though. But that’s pretty much true for most people.

 

From my experience with a pretty good sized sample of live feed traders - noob and cuspal traders will get more effective and efficient developmental leverage long term from going real first and then turning to simn when they actually know what they need to train on.

 

the ‘voice of trading’ has an easy time convincing most to do the exact opposite of that ... all the while, the ratio of loosers to winners is verisimilar to the ratio of simfirsts to simlaters ...(:helo: if I’ve said it once I’ve said it 649 times)

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Like jpmoneybags, I too hesitate to interject, but re:

 

 

From my experience with a pretty good sized sample of live feed traders - noob and cuspal traders will get more effective and efficient developmental leverage long term from going real first and then turning to simn when they actually know what they need to train on.

 

the ‘voice of trading’ has an easy time convincing most to do the exact opposite of that ... all the while, the ratio of loosers to winners is verisimilar to the ratio of simfirsts to simlaters ...(:helo: if I’ve said it once I’ve said it 649 times)

 

 

I think I was there for most of those 649 so I can verify that your stance on this never waivers.;)

 

However,, I believe I made a good stab at explaining why having got it the wrong way around (in your opinion,albeit based on experience) it was a useful exercise. .

 

Since I base this thread on one mans journey- mine I have no choice but to relate my experience with true events as they actually happened. And if I'm really honest It's too far back now to recall whether I'd ever heard the 'voice of trading' or even visited a trading forum before I went on the simulator.

 

Anyway, I knew we'd get it in the ear from you if I mentioned the simulator.. But don't worry, I had my fingers in my ears when I was typing ... if you can picture that :rofl:

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I wanted a simple trading plan to follow. I thought I had one. The problem was It didn’t work as well as it should., Leaving aside the patience/discipline type issues what are we left with? Too much, that’s what we’re left with.

 

At some point I began to realise that there were several useful character traits that I was not only failing to utilize, I was actively suppressing them. Does suppressing something, anything, sound like healthy activity to you?

 

“try not to ‘fix’ it”

 

I’m going to shock a few guys here. I have to tell you that after all these years I still don’t have a system that compels me to enter here, exit there. Did you notice the key word in that sentence?

That’s because I’m not a rule based trader. I’m a trader. The rules are there to help me, not get in my way.

 

OK, so now more experienced readers know (or think they know) where this is going- Discretionary Trading. A no go area for many. A big scary taboo subject that a lot of vested interests would like you to stay the hell away from.

 

The scarecrows of the vendor industry prefer empty cliché’s like ‘Plan your trade, trade your plan’ Well, you’re going to find that difficult for a long time. The thing about scarecrows is they’re rooted to the spot. And the danger is you might get rooted there as well.

 

The scarecrows have got a song they like to sing. In fact they’ve only got one song, it’s called The Gospel- A Traders Bible. And every line in that song is every cliché you ever heard. And the chorus goes like this:

 

90% of traders lose.

 

I know most of you are hell bent on dotting all the eyes and crossing all the tees in your trading plan and a rule for every eventuality. The whole industry just loves it when you do that., you know why? because they can package something to cater for that desire. Next time you miss your entry by 1 tic and price takes off without you.. try not to ’fix’ it.

 

 

 

Let’s call your trading plan -a sword, and the market -the battle. If every time your sword gets blunted in battle you feel compelled to go back to the drawing board and sharpen it, be aware that there’s a point beyond that process. What I’m saying is, there comes a time when the sword gets sharper in battle than it can ever be made on the drawing board.

 

What do you do when you break one of your trading rules (yet again) and you lose money?

 

1- Put a little note on your trading screen: “Must remember to follow the rules no matter what”

2-’Improve’ the rules.

3- Take a closer look at someone else’s rules.

4- Take a closer look inside your head.

 

You’ll probably have to work through that list in chronological order and get to number 4 before you can even put yourself in thinking outside the box mode.

 

How do you know when you’re ready to go beyond?

When you can swim, there’s not much point in staying in the shallow end. I was ready when I realised my discretionary decision making was working better than going back to the drawing board. My learning curve had taken longer because I thought I was being disciplined by not making discretionary decisions, when in fact, that belief was holding me back.

 

The Key Point Here

 

Not every trader should be making discretionary decisions, certainly not a new trader. You won’t have anywhere near enough experience to do it. But if it takes you 2 years to realise that it might become part of your trading plan, then that’s 2 years where you could have been working towards it.

 

Here’s the biggest reason why ‘discretionary’ might be a no go area for you. You designed your trading plan with the express intent of ruling yourself as a trader out of the equation. You decided from the very start to be the passenger instead of the pilot.

 

The key reason why discretionary worked for me was that I realised that my trading strategies were very compatible with me being the pilot…. or co-pilot if you like.

 

A happy coincidence you might think. But I suspect that it was no coincidence. I suspect it might have something to do with having a certain personality trait- resistance to rigidly imposed, inflexible rules. If an aircraft is in trouble, who’s got the best chance of safely landing the plane, the passenger or the pilot?

 

See 4 above- Take a closer look inside your head. Then take a look at trading 101. Don’t wait 2 years to realise you got it the wrong way round.

 

Next-

Discretionary Trading isn’t anything like you think it is.

Actually, you and a lot of others who won’t admit it are doing it too.

The biggest traders in the world make discretionary decisions.

 

 

Today, as a usefool mental exercise I'll be counting from 649 backwards to the number 2.

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Discretionary-To Be Or Not To Be

 

 

Perhaps one of the biggest reasons why discretionary trading is rarely discussed is because it’s very difficult to define. How can you evaluate the potential of something that’s difficult to nail down in the first place? Before I attempt to define it, we ought to look at the common arguments made against it.

 

Discretionary Trading Is A No Go Area Because:

 

1. It Cannot Be Taught

 

Neither can patience and discipline and without those 2 essential requirements all is lost. Yet somehow, despite the fact that these 2 abilities can’t be taught, some guys manage to train themselves to be patient and disciplined. So how do you reconcile that? This seems illogical to me.

 

2. It Cannot Be Back Tested

 

True. But it can be forward tested. Are you seriously saying it is not even worth forward testing your ability to see things your trading signal can’t always pick up.? If back testing cannot be totally relied on, and I would suggest it can’t, then, apart from risk control, what are you doing in real time to deal with that fact? Nothing?...really?

 

Ever heard the one about how a random entry with good risk control trumps a very good trading set up with bad risk control? What’s the difference between random and discretionary? Discretionary is superior. Obviously, if you’re using discretionary decision making based on a sufficient experience and skill level then it has to have an edge over random. A chimpanzee can do the random part.

 

3. It Can’t Easily Be Demonstrated, Defined Or Explained To Others.

 

So what? Are you planning to be a trader or a vendor? Why not let the scarecrows* worry about that one, it’s hardly your problem is it?

 

* See post 10

 

4. Big Professional Traders and Institutions Don’t Use It.

 

What do you care whether they use it or not? If it works for me why should I stop using it? There’s lot’s of things retail traders use that the big boys don’t. On the other hand, retail didn’t crash the whole system in 2008. Maybe if a few of them had made some discretionary decisions that might not have happened.

5. Using It Will Have A Negative Affect On My edge.

 

What edge? Retail traders, let alone new traders, don’t have an edge. Define edge. Can you manipulate a market? Can you get inside information on a regular basis? Can you get a bail out?

6. Whenever I Make Discretionary decisions I usually Regret It.

 

Is it part of a forward tested plan to include discretionary decision making? If not, then you were using it for some other reason, and probably not a good reason at that. Were you employing good risk control at the time? If the answer is yes, then how big a regret could it be? If no, why not? Sounds like going off plan is the problem here. If you can’t handle the basic skills, then you can’t handle the advanced ones.

Fix the issue then try pushing the boundary again. That’s better than reaching a negative conclusion based on a false premise. If a discretionary approach is not for you, try to reach that decision scientifically.

 

Consider this as a premise: All basic T.A. is trading 101.

 

1. Discipline is not 101.

2. Patience is not 101.

3. Some people think trading is part science part art.-Art is not 101.

4. Outperforming is not 101

5. Discretion is not 101.

 

I read here traders claiming “I’m always learning and improving as a trader,” something along those lines. Then I look at the ‘diet’ that they’re ‘feeding’ on and I remember the mass of stuff I worked through in the early years and how little of it was ultimately useful.

 

Learning is 101.

 

6. Improving is not 101.

 

 

 

Defining ‘Discretionary’

 

Discretionary is not:

 

1. Random decision making.

2. Something beyond a competent trader’s ability unless they’ve consistently proved it is.

3. Is not the opposite of disciplined.

4. Is not the opposite of patience.

5. Is not gambling.

6. Is not the opposite of risk control.

7. Is not a substitute for knowledge.

8. Is not a substitute for experience.

9. Is not an alternative method to a detailed trading plan (unless you decided it is).

 

During the course of your trading career you will have read a great deal of information, seen thousands of charts, made thousands of trades, spent huge amounts of time designing your trading strategies and refining them. On a daily basis you are recapping the day’s trading and visualizing the possible scenarios for the next one. In today’s 24hr markets there is not much time where you can’t be trading a market somewhere. Even a beginner will quickly realise that this trading thing can suck you in and eat up huge amounts of time.

 

It’s impossible to do anything for a long period of time without acquiring an instinct, a feel, an intuition, call it what you like. This is like a pay off for time served, a skill set that is acquired without the need to work any harder at whatever it is you’re working on, in our case studying and trading the market.

 

So where is the pay off for this extra skill you’ve acquired- the instinct? If it is not employed then there is no pay off. It’s like a buy one, get one free, but then chuck one away. Technically, in financial terms, chucking the free one away is not a loss, but neither is it taking advantage of the opportunity that was presented.

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hey folks,

 

Do you know how rare an authentic ‘discretionary trader’ is?

 

...

 

Do you know the unattached relationship to one’s “intuition” required?

like - > "Everything to the right on your chart is free information" :rofl:

 

...

 

 

...

 

As this is a forum, one option is to post your experiences and issues with discretionary vs/and nondiscret trading instead of waiting at the tit of mit. Mit serves meat... and only when he makes a kill.

 

Along those lines - in most forums it’s a problem, but this forum has become so uncrowded that it’s less likely you will get the diluting and discouraging flak posts saying you shouldn’t be attempting what you’re attempting. Instead, likely you will be able to discuss you specific how’s of discretionary trading instead of getting your thread corrupted by ‘should nots’.

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Haven't abandoned the thread...I'll be back.

 

Your kind response is much appreciated ! Thank You and keep coming back again and again with such knowledgeable stuff!

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From what I said in post #11:

 

"Discretionary Trading isn’t anything like you think it is.

Actually, you and a lot of others who won’t admit it are doing it too".

 

When you don't obey your trading rules and allow a losing trade to go too far... what was that, was it a discretionary decision?

 

When you hesitate and don't take the trade and it takes off without you....what was that, was it a discretionary decision?

 

When you grab a profit before it hits the target...dicretionary?

 

When you decide to scrap the plan and go find another one.. discretionary?

 

When you decide to post a joke in the forum instead of running a back test on something, when you decide 'priorities' dictate the test can wait until the weekend..... discretionary?

 

When some guy posts a big scary chart and says history is about to repeat, a crash is coming, do you lighten up/close out/ go short/get confused?.... discretionary?

 

There are trading decisions and there are decisions that affect your trading indirectly.

 

Are the above decisions 'wrong'? Is, say grabbing a profit before the trade hits the target wrong?

 

In trading, the answer is so often Yes.... and No.

 

Zdo's pet hate, the 'Voice of Trading' says yes. Those guys aren't trading your account. It's not their money. They can never be factored into the equation... unless you're a beginner.

 

Because who does a beginner listen to? Everybody.

 

Well, almost everybody, to begin with. That's a big problem. And it stays a big problem for as long as you decide other opinions are more useful than your own.

 

The first and best discretionary decision you can make today is.....?

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On 26/9/2016 at 10:12 AM, mitsubishi said:

11 Problems For Beginners You've Never Seen Before

 

1- You don't know anything.

 

2- You don't know what the things are that you need to know

 

3- You don't even know what the things are that you don't need to know.

 

4- Most of the people here don't know anything either, even though they're convinced they do.

 

5- What you don't know sure can hurt you and it will- just as soon as you get off the simulator.

 

6- Most of the people who do know what they're talking about....won't talk about it. (even though the whole point of a forum is to talk about it.)

 

7- If and when you know what you're talking about, you won't talk about it either.

 

8- If the people who knew what they're talking about actually talked about it, you couldn't recognise or appreciate it anyway.

 

10- You are the problem

 

11- Only you can solve the problem....or not (usually, according to statistics)

 

 

Today I will be using a cleaning product that promises to clean the hard to reach, neglected forgotten corners.

I will consider!

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Hah, a very interesting and eye-opening topic. I learn a lot from you guys, but at a certain point, it's time to realize how hard it is to find your way among so many pros and cons. I know you are all here to form a good knowledge-based community. I guess time has come to just look for a person who thinks his/her own way and follow his/her advice. I need a mentor who will teach me how to rock! :D

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Quote

Hah, a very interesting and eye-opening topic. I learn a lot from you guys, but at a certain point, it's time to realize how hard it is to find your way among so many pros and cons. I know you are all here to form a good knowledge-based community. I guess time has come to just look for a person who thinks his/her own way and follow his/her advice. I need a mentor who will teach me how to rock!


Good luck, Jason, et al.  You will need it... Re:  “time has come”  Some observations about that from my years of observing and mentoring traders - 
Working with a mentor before the trader has been trading for at least three years - I have only seen one successful instance (... and actually that trader really didn’t need a mentor) and many unsuccessful ones.

During that time, I have also only seen a couple instances where a trader ‘turned his life around' via mentoring

ie the vast majority of traders who enter mentoring when they are still in that lowest ‘78% pareto’ stay in or return to that lowest pareto instead of stabilizing in the ‘19% surviving pareto’ as they would hope

ie  Authentic mentoring is for traders already in the middle pareto who are striving to move into the top ‘3% thriving pareto’  ... for all others it is basically a waste of everyone’s time...

ie

Quote

 

10- You are the problem

11- Only you can solve the problem....or not (usually, according to statistics)

 

Ie General education rules do not apply well to trading 'education' because they emphasize basic commonalities.  Traders need to focus on specific idiosyncrasies of their own neural processing, their own perceptual ‘mapping’ / style, proclivities, aptitudes, talents, biases, etc  ...  having someone teach you how he “rocks” will not even approach adequately  teaching  you how to “rock”... because the odds of the way he rocks being anywhere close to compatible with your  true nature of how you rock are miniscule.  And if you do not trade true to your own nature, you will find a way to blow it up.   “Find your own way” (zdo) to trade. Polish that.  Then and only then - seek instruction/mentorship from traders who perceive and  trade verisimilar to the way you trade ...

Quote

12.  The 11 rules above fall on deaf ears.

 

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