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jpennybags

Help a Discretionary Brother Out...

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I am, by definition, a discretionary trader. I'm not one of those systems traders that makes discretionary calls; I actually don't have a system. One could argue that every trader trades a system, but I think I'm about as “bare bones” as it gets. I make my decisions on price action and often times on situational intuition. That's it.

 

I like what I do, and don't really see any need (for me personally) to take up system trading. I seem to need something workmanlike and interactive to be happy, and discretionary trading provides that. The reason that automated system trading has sparked a recent interest for me, is that I was considering setting up a trading account for charitable contributions. I like the idea, but giving up the time from my own account to trade it would be problematic (or, I see it as such at this place in time). So, at this point it's just a curious notion that I'm considering. A few questions, or if someone could recommend a book that would be good too:

 

1. If you have a portfolio of systems that can be engaged according to market conditions, how does one decide when to apply or change out these systems? I suppose one could allow failure to serve as the criteria, but that doesn't seem right to my way of thinking.

 

2. Are there self correcting systems that change due to market metrics? I'm not necessarily speaking about something as complicated as AI systems, but something that will make slight adjustments to stay in phase (I think “phase” is the right word). I suppose these could be manually controlled as well.

 

3. How extensive does this portfolio need to be? It seems to me that 3 to 4 systems would be sufficient, but possibly I don't understand the task at hand.

 

4. I have no desire to learn to program. I'm already challenged with being an “ole man”, and I may not have that many years remaining (ha!). What would the monetary outlay be for someone to program and back test for me (a ball park figure… even in the neighborhood is good enough)?

 

5. This really needs to be something that doesn't require a great deal of maintenance. Is that possible?

 

[i can hear your laughter: “you dope… what do you think this is a money machine?”].

 

The reason I ask is that it may be possible to set up the account as a tax free trust (of some sort), and this would probably require additional accounting. I can see how this notion of mine could become an all consuming head ache. If someone has some insight into this, it may be enough to nip this idea in the bud.

 

Thanks...

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As I've been told that it's not that difficult, I'll take on #4... I've got time (and I may not have that many years remaining ).

 

Reality check -

With a ‘portfolio of systems’ etc past a certain (actually quite low) threshold of complexity, getting code to ‘see’ the market the way you want it to see the market and do what you want it to do is an extremely daunting task.

 

Past that threshold of complexity, having someone else program the whole of such a project has little chance of working. It would be a daunting task to spec properly. Then, the odds of matching up with programmer(s) that you have a chance of properly communicating those specs to ( ie to reach ‘shared vision’ between trader and the programmer) is extremely low - even if the programmer has trading experience or even coding experience with trading systems. Most experienced trading system programmers out there already have their possible potential established... sadly, it is not uncommon for even the ‘good’ ones to hear what they want to hear and deliver code that’s not really what you asked for... If you go past that certain threshold of complexity, don’t be surprised one day to find yourself already ~ hundred k into something that might need to be fkn started all over.

 

In this 'sample of one' example, at the portf level, I personally code all the proprietary system weighting and sizing algo's myself . At the individual systems level, I also code all the analysis’ and all the trade setup and trigger logic for all the systems myself. I farm out to professionals the intricacies of order execution and position ‘tracking’, etc. for my platform(s), connectivity monitoring, and issues with position accounting/management during reconnects... and a whole stack of little things one would never imagine would need to be dealt with, etc etc. The programmers I hire have no idea of the trading logic. They simply develop the ‘objects’ I ask for using really dumb prototypes and it’s my job to integrate their stuff into my project properly.

 

 

and fwiw (...and bags, this is a pure projection on my part ... ) it is my feel that if you want to do contributions, you will get far more traction/effectiveness directly helping those in your own community - instead of donating to corrupt charities. The world needs your wisdom far more than it needs your money...

 

hth ...wishing you all the best,

 

zdo

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The world needs your wisdom far more than it needs your money...

 

hth ...wishing you all the best,

 

zdo

 

Thanks for the vote of confidence in my "wisdom"... my children have been the main beneficiary in that regard. They turned out just fine, but they consumed a good deal of my money too.

 

"Corrupt charities"... eh... probably not... at least no more corrupt than I am. These are local charities that benefit those in my community. I also support public radio, and the local arts community. One could argue the value of that, but these are things that I enjoy, and feel the need to give back.

 

The person I spoke with about programming was of course speaking to learning to write code... nothing more. We spoke some about the mechanical aspects of what I wanted to code, but I doubt that he understood the integration. I did find out that I can't afford his services... go figure.

 

In all regards, I am a practical person (part of my wisdom). This wouldn't be the first time that I took on such a project and failed, but I always come out the other side with a new perspective, and gain some knowledge in the process.

 

In all regards... thanks for the reality check.

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  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date : 25th April 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 25th April 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Outlook: 10-year Bund yields are down -0.4 bp at 0.623% in early trade, the 2-year is down -0.5 bp at -0.5685. 10-year Treasury yields pierced the 3% mark overnight, but have fallen back slightly to currently 2.998%, while yields moved broadly higher in Asia with the 10-year JGB up 1.2 bp at 0.054%. Stock markets headed south in Asia, following a weak close in the U.S. with concerns about the earnings outlook amid warnings on profit outlooks hit sentiment. With a lack of key data releases in Europe today the focus is on the ECB meeting tomorrow, where Draghi will likely see through the recent run of weak confidence data to keep the ECB on course to end net asset purchases by the end of the year, but repeat once again that inflation is not yet on a sustainable path higher, which means the ECB is not ready to commit just yet.

      FX Update: USDJPY lifted back above 109.00 from yesterday’s correction low at 108.54, but has so far left yesterday’s 10-week peak at 109.20 untroubled. Ditto for EURJPY. Stock markets in Asia have been broadly lower following declines on Wall Street, with investors digesting higher yields — the 10-year T-note finally touched the 3.0% level (and first time here since early 2017) — and doubts about earnings growth. The USA500 closed out yesterday with a 1.3% loss, while the Nikkie 225 was showing a 0.3% loss in the late PM Tokyo session. This backdrop has likely curtailed yen selling, according to market narratives. In data, Japan’s February industry activity index came in with 0.4% m/m growth, slightly below the median forecast for 0.5%. USDJPY has been trending higher for a month now, from sub-105.00 levels. The dynamic has been concomitant with rising U.S. yields, with looser fiscal policy having given added underpinning to Fed tightening expectations. This comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. Demand for foreign assets by Japanese life insurers has been a factor propping USDJPY up so far in the new fiscal year, while an abatement in concerns about trade tensions and cooling relations on the Korean peninsular have also been in the mix. Overall, we advise following the trend in USDJPY for now. Support comes in at 108.40-42.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today
        Credit Suisse Economic Expectations Crude Oil Inventories – Expectations – -2.043M Barrels from -1.1M last week BOC Gov Poloz & Wilkins speech – Poloz and Wilkins appear before the Senate Standing Committee on Banking, Trade and Commerce on Wednesday. Support & Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


      Stuart Cowell
      Senior Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $DXCM (DXCM) DexCom stock top of range breakout watch above 75.61,



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    • Date : 24th April 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 24th April 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Outlook: Asian markets moved mostly higher overnight, following on from a positive session on Wall Street and amid ongoing USD strength with a weaker Yen underpinning a 0.75% rise in the Nikkei. The Hang Seng is up 0.94%, the CSI 300 rallied 1.75% amid speculation that the government is considering easing some policies put in to limit the credit boom. The absence of any negative news on the trade front seems to have given stock markets some breathing space and U.S. futures are also up in tandem with U.K. futures. Oil prices are also up and the front end Nymex future is trading at USD 69.14 per barrel. For now though bonds are getting a boost and stock markets are also higher, with most European futures posting gains in tandem with U.S. futures and after a positive session in Asia. Today’s calendar focuses on confidence data out of France, Germany and the U.K.. The U.K. also has public finance data and Germany auctions 2-year Schatz notes.

      FX Update: The dollar posted fresh highs against the euro and yen, and many other currencies after a bout of demand in Asia, which extending a broad rally the greenback has been seeing against for over a week now. The narrow trade-weighted USD index (DXY) posted its highest level since the first week of January, at 91.07. EURUSD logged a 10-week low at 1.2184, though euro demand has subsequently fuelled a rebound to the 1.2220 area. USDJPY lifted for a sixth consecutive session, making a 10-week high at 108.87. EURJPY is also firmer, though has so far remained below the two-month high it saw last week. The gains in USDJPY have been concomitant with the U.S. T-note yield nearing the 3.0% level, which has been generating headlines, which comes with the BoJ continuing to peg JGB 10-year yields near 0.0%. The Nikkei 225 closed 0.86% for the better, more than reversing the moderate loss seen yesterday. North Korea’s Kim said that he would be willing to accept IAEA inspections of nuclear facilities.

      Charts of the Day



      Main Macro Events Today
        German IFO – The German Ifo business confidence indicator, due Tuesday, comes in a new format this month, which includes the services sector now. For the new indicator a dip is expected to 102.8 from 103.2, and a decline in the expectations reading to 99.5 from 100.1 in the previous month. However, after the better than expected PMI readings there is a bias to the upside to the numbers. In any case, we don’t expect the April round of survey indicators to really change the outlook for the ECB, which is seen on hold this week, with officials seeing scope to leave the final decision on the future of the QE program open until July, when the risks to the global outlook may have become a bit clearer and the decision is becoming urgent. UK Public Borrowing – Expectations – at 1.6B pounds from -0.272B pounds last month. US Consumer confidence – likely declined to 126.0 in April, from March’s 127.7. US New home sales – expected to rise to 0.630 mln in April from 0.618 mln in February. Support & Resistance Levels



      Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news. 


      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex


      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Addendum:
      http://www.thedailybell.com/news-analysis/if-you-limit-any-free-speech-this-is-what-you-get/  
      ...
      Anar  Chicagoans, etc, etc, -  wake up !
      This -> https://www.mintpressnews.com/cheran-mexicos-indigenous-community-that-rebelled-against-narcos-thieves-and-politicians-and-won/240979/
      instead of this -> http://massprivatei.blogspot.com/2018/04/smart-city-projects-are-really-police.html
       
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