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FX News Today
The 20-year Treasury yields are down -1.3 bp at 2.814%, as the sell off in stock markets, continued during the Asian session. Topix and Nikkei are down -1.99% and -1.82% respectively.
Dovish RBA minutes: No strong case for a change in monetary policy.
China’s President Xi Jinping offered no fresh stimulus plans or a further opening of the economy in his keynote speech marking 40-years of Chinese reforms.
Concern rises over the outlook for Chinese and World Growth amid ongoing trade tensions weighing on sentiment.
US stock futures are slightly higher though as the Fed decision comes into view, with Powell expected to confirm that the central bank will switch from autopilot to data dependency on rate hikes after the widely expected move this week.
USA500 closed at the lowest level in 14 months.
Oil prices declined and the WTI future fell back to $48.93 per barrel, as risk of demand destruction hits prices.
Charts of the Day
Main Macro Events Today
German Ifo Business Climate – Expectations – To fall back to 101.7 from 102.0 in November, with the expectations reading, in particular, under pressure. The manufacturing sector is looking shaky again amid fresh challenges for the automobile sector, which continues to struggle with emissions standards and the lingering diesel scandal, which has considerably undermined confidence, especially in Germany where consumers are facing driving bans without compensation from producers.
US housing starts – Expectations – They are estimated slipping 0.2% to a 1.225 mln pace in November, after a 1.5% gain to 1.228 mln in October.
Canadian Manufacturing shipments – Expectations – They are expected to rise 0.5% in October after the 0.2% gain in September.
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Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.
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Weekly Trading Forecasts for Major Pairs (December 17 - 21, 2018)
Here’s the market outlook for the week:
Dominant bias: Bearish
This is a bear market, although the bearishness is not that strong. Price has been going downwards gradually, targeting the support lines at 1.1300, 1.1250 and 1.1200. These targets may be reached soon, but price may not go seriously below them as a strong reversal is expected to happen anytime, which will accompany some form of weakness in USD. This is what might bring about a bullish bias.
Dominant bias: Bullish
USDCHF is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. Nonetheless, looking more closely, it is revealed that price is a kind of rising gradually, and generating a “buy” signal, which would eventually become significant in case the market continues moving upwards. A meaningful bearish movement cannot be seen unless there is a considerable amount of loss on Greenback stamina.
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a Bearish Confirmation Pattern on the Cable as bears continue to frustrate bulls’ effort to reverse the trend and push price upwards. Apart from Brexit and political news surrounding the UK, the US dollar stamina is preventing the market from going upwards. Once bears give way, there may be a significant rise in the market. Right now, the bearish bias remains in place and long positions are not currently recommended.
Dominant bias: Bullish
This currency trading instrument is bullish in the long-term, and neutral in the short-term. The bullishness is not that great as there has not been a significant directional movement in the market. A rise in volatility remains a possibility before the end of this week or next week. Further movement to the upside will result in more emphasis on bullish outlook while a significant drop from here would result in a bearish outlook.
Dominant bias: Neutral
The bias on this cross is generally neutral, as there has not been a significant directional movement for the past several weeks. It is possible that this neutrality would continue until the end of this year because trading activity is expected to thin out (unless there is a breakout between this week or next). For the neutrality to end, price would need to go above the supply zone at 131.00 or below the demand zone at 125.00, and this will no doubt, require a strong bullish momentum.
Dominant bias: Bearish
There is a confirmed bearishness (Bearish Confirmation Pattern) on this cross, because of the weakness in GBP. This trend will continue until it is clear that things are no longer bearish. That will be this week or next, and before that happens, there could still be at least, a movement of about 200 pips towards the south.
This forecast is concluded with the quote below:
“However, if a trading strategy has been proven to work over the long run, with a quality risk to reward profile, it needs to be adhered to no matter the way trades play out. Ask yourself a question: is it the trading strategy producing the results or the trader producing the results?” – Sam Evans
Weekly trading signals for major cryptos - DECEMBER 17th
Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Monero (XMR), Ripple (XRP), Cardano (ADA), Stellar (XLM), EOS, Bitcoin SV (BCHSV), Tron (TRX), Litecoin (LTC)
Dominant trend: Bearish
Supply zone: $5000, $6000, $7000 Demand zone: $2000, $1500, $1000
BTC/USD continues in a bearish trend in the long-term outlook. After breaking the predicted target at $3377 in the demand area of last week analysis on 13th December, the strong bearish pressure further pushed the cryptocurrency down to a new lower low at $3215 on 15th December ending the week in a bullish doji.
This suggests brief bullish pullback may be expected in the days ahead. The bears’ return may be around the 10-EMA, after exhaustion. Moreover, the price remains below the two EMAs, the stochastic oscillator is in the oversold region at 6%, and its signal points down. These suggest further downward movement in BTC/USD. $3000 in the demand area may be the bears targeted lower low.
Dominant trend: Bearish
Supply zones: $250, $300, $350 Demand zones: $50, $30, $10
The week just ended opened bullish on 9th December as ETH/USD was up at $102.50 in the supply area, but the bulls later lost momentum as the day closed as an inverted hammer. This was a signal that the bears were back. $85.94 was the initial low but increased momentum dropped ETH/USD down to $83.17 in the demand area on 15th December ending the week with a bullish hammer.
With a possible trend reversal, the bulls are gradually staging a return. ETH/USD was up at $91.46 in the supply area earlier today. Further upward movement was rejected by the 10-EMA which acted as a strong resistance. The bears still remain in control of the market and may return and push price further down south. With the price below the two EMAs and the stochastic oscillator signal at 8% in the oversold region, this suggests downward momentum. $50.00 in the demand area is still on the card as the trading week commences.
For more signals: https://www.cryptocomparer.com/news/bitcoin-news/bitcoin-btc-ethereum-eth-monero-xmr-ripple-xrp-cardano-ada-stellar-xlm-eos-bitcoin-sv-bchsv-tron-trx-litecoin-ltc-weekly-trading-signals-for-december-17th/