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pro4Xtrader

High Probability Forecasts

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What it seems to be that EURUSD is rejecting the ascending channel that could invite sellers in a short while. Cycles support the idea of the EUR being at or near the top of it's cycle. If we hold current resistance I'd expect EURUSD to return to the major technical as well as psychological support around 1.1000.

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GBPCHF bounced off the support at 1.4350 level, forming a local double bottom. Cycle analyses suggest that 3 SELLs could be followed by 3 BUYs. Currently pair is entering the first buying cycle.

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AUDCAD clearly moving within the ascending channel. Recent bounce of the top of the channel suggest a correction down towards 0.9525 area. Cycle analysis indicates that corrective wave could end on the 18th of May.

 

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USDJPY has rejected a long term uptrend trendline signalling on a potential strength. While 118 level is not penetrated, buyers will dominate, potentially pushing price once again up to form a triple top. Cycles suggest the beginning for the upswing in the next couple of days. At the same time our longer term view suggest a strong correction down once/if USDJPY reaches triple top area.

 

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If EURNZD manages to hold current resistance, with the weekly close below 1.5316, it is very likely correction down will follow. First target could be 1.5000 as a round psychological level. However there is technical resistance as fart as 1.4680 at the 23.6% level.

 

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While NZDCAD broke above the descending channel it could provoke another extension up towards 0.9070 area where the 23.6% fibs is crossing with the downtrend trendline. The trendline itself should act as a resistance. In addition, cycles point to the time where fibs and trendline is crossing.

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AUDCHF could be getting back to the significant support area near 0.7330. cycles suggest that the downside target could be reached as fast as tomorrow. Besides prise moves within the acceding channel without breakouts till this point.

 

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The double top does indicate on the potential correction or a reversal to the downside. According to Fibs time zone the dowside target should be reached pretty fast, where cycle crosses with the trend line and previous support level.

 

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GBPCAD cycle up just begun suggesting the new highs are not too far away. It it not necessary that price will start raising immediately, but some range can be expected prior to the rally. Overall I expect GBPCAD to grow by 500 points by 10th of July.

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Gold is clearly in ranging condition that could provoke further consolidation. Considering that DeMarker oscillator is out of the oversold area price could start rising to test 1220 resistance area. Also the uptrend trendline has been rejected with the new up cycle just starting.

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GBPNZD cycles suggest a good time for a sell. The uptrend trendline is broken and that should put price under pressure. Overall I expect price to go down and hit 2.0780 area. Good selling opportunity might right now at 2.1330.

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    • this shows up... http://charleshughsmith.blogspot.com/2018/08/technocrats-rule-democracy-is-ok-as.html  
    • mits, well we don't need to worry about this* with you, do we? you need some boundaries dood.   jk   *https://www.wakingtimes.com/2018/08/13/george-orwell-warned-us-of-the-most-dangerous-type-of-censorship/   ... must disagree again... keeping billions herded is not that difficult... herds for the most part tend to herd themselves with occasional help from fences and shepherds... to make it even easier - keep them malnourished on empty foods... keep them serially sick and weak from toxins and pharm ... keep them doped up on synthetic pain  and symptom suppressor meds ... maintain relentless attacks on the functional aspects of cultures, while building a culture that features only operating as physical beings with no contact with 'spirit', with the consequent lack of feeling culpable for their world ... keep them polarized and divided and in 'broken' relationships ... keep their brains saturated 24 7 with a fake orthodoxy, a global distributed script, body of consensus ideas with the unspoken hint that all right-thinking people will accept it without question... censor the outspoken deviants as harshly as needed... track every move the relatively small sample of profiled deviants make ... have the dogs ready to round them up and pushed back onto the plantation, or into retraining prisons, or killed...  
    • USDJPY: Sees Further Recovery Higher USDJPY: The pair looks to extend further recovery higher as more strength is likely. On the downside, support lies at the 110.50 level where a break if seen will aim at the 110.00 level. A cut through here will turn focus to the 109.50 level and possibly lower towards the 109.00 level. On the upside, resistance resides at the 111.50 level. Further out, we envisage a possible move towards the 112.00 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 112.50 level with a turn above here aiming at the 113.00 level. On the whole, USDJPY faces further recovery pressure.
       
    • Date : 14th August 2018.

      MACRO EVENTS & NEWS OF 14th August 2018.



      FX News Today

      European Fixed Income Outlook: German 10-year Bund yields jumped higher from the off and as of 06:19 GMT, are up 1.8 bp at 0.326%, underperforming Treasuries and JGBs, which showed rates rising 1.6 bp and 1.0 bp respectively. Stronger than expected growth numbers at the start of the session added pressure on Bunds, after core yields already started to back up again as stock markets stabilized and Turkey jitters receded somewhat. Japanese markets bounced back overnight and European stock futures are moving higher alongside US futures. Bundesbank’s Wuermeling suggested one should not “over dramatize” the risk of Turkey contagion, adding that ECB didn’t see the need for a risk meeting so far. As long as there is not a further dramatic escalation, the turbulence is not expected to derail ECB’s course towards a phasing out of QE. Already released German July HICP was confirmed at 2.1% y/y. Still to come are German ZEW confidence, the 2nd reading of Q2 Eurozone GDP and UK labour market data.

      FX Update: Safe haven positioning were unwound some today, which saw the Dollar and Yen traded softer against most other currencies after Ankara managed to halt the rout of the Lira, which in turn brought a reprieve in still-fragile global markets. Most stock markets found a footing in Asia, and USA500 futures are showing a 0.3% gain, reversing most of yesterday’s regular-session’s losses, though Chinese markets were an exception, declining after a batch of economic data showed the economy to have hit a rough patch, while investment growth was shown to have reached a record low. EURUSD settled around the 1.1400 mark, above yesterday’s 13-month low at 1.1365. USDJPY recouped back toward the 111.0 level after posting a seven-week low at 110.11 yesterday. PBoC set the reference rate for USDCNY at 6.8695, versus 6.8629 yesterday. China’s statistics bureau said that the weaker Yuan, which has declined the most against the Dollar since April on record (in the era of the prevailing regime), and perhaps aiming to counter the wrath of President Trump, was a reflection of the Fed’s tightening cycle. AUDUSD firmed above 0.7770, finding a footing after 3 consecutive days of declines. Australia data showing business confidence rising provided the Aussie a supporting influence.

      Charts of the Day


      Main Macro Events Today UK Average Earnings Index – Expectations – Average Household Earnings expected to come in with 2.5% y/y and 2.7% y/y growth in both the including- and ex-bonus figures, which would match the respective growth rates that were seen in the month prior. UK Unemployment Rate – Expectations – The labour report expected to show unemployment holding unchanged at 4.2% in June. Eurozone GDP – Expectations – Eurozone Q2 GDP is likely to be confirmed at 0.3% q/q. German ZEW Economic Sentiment – Expectations – A slight improvement is anticipated in the headline number to -24.0, from -24.7 in the previous month. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.

      Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.

      Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

      Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!

      Click HERE to READ more Market news.

      Andria Pichidi
      Market Analyst
      HotForex

      Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Actions for the 13th.  My lack of patience really stung today, bailed out too early and rushed back in without much thought to get caught out again.
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