Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

daytrade999

Consistently Losing

Recommended Posts

Thank you all for your kind words. Having just left my rock for the sunshine I appreciate it.

 

More apologies to dt999. The last point (11) came out more harsh than I intended. I certainly don't want to thwart anyone's pursuit of profits.

 

Also, very all good comments from everyone. I was gonna quote & reply but realized that would be another War & Peace.

 

I think the short version is that everything we mentioned is probably correct in various degrees at various times.

 

I have done some research and the retrace is the most frequent and predictable pattern of all, and by far.

 

I really believe stop hunting is SOP for brokers and other entry counter parties. Maybe they can do it because most of them play the same game and most of us retail folks follow the herd? It takes balls, money, and discipline to do the other correct things, to catch a falling knife or step in front of a bus.

 

Squiggly, lagging lines and channel breakouts are what most noobs do. They are always late, buy tops and sell bottoms. One can be profitable with lines and channels if the other ducks are in a row.

 

My studies indicate that range breakouts win about 33% of the time but still can make a ton of money.

 

Not many can handle that ratio emotionally. The emotions, chop and over leverage are a perfect storm to break their hearts and their accounts. I hate to see it.

 

The "profit taking" rationale used to be the primary explanation for retraces. And that is still valid. Yup, I am that old.

 

Then those pesky brokers and banks have every advantage. Their back rooms have their books and they lay off risk in a nano second for a fraction of the spread. They also track the A list traders and B list traders. I've known a few of those "bucketeers" over the years.

 

I overlay cme volume on my fx charts to help mitigate the "no fx volume data" dilemma. The mass of volume, or lack thereof, at certain prices and often at the end of a retrace is one of my magic beans. It keeps me from jumping in mid stream and buying tops and selling bottoms.

 

The biggest sin I still struggle with is entering too early. Fading the dip/rally is such a strong method I can't help myself. I quit dying a thousand deaths when I came to expect the adverse move and initiated the trade with a tiny.

 

Well, you didn't get War & Peace. Instead you got The Satanic Verses.

I guess I'm just lonely.

 

The level of discourse in this thread is outstanding. One can learn a lot here.

 

Hereafter I resolve to ramble less.

 

Bye for now.

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
That's a good question and almost philosophical… I guess, the 'taking advantage' can only go so far as long as a market exists, i.e. people/institutions continue to participate in it, although they are being screwed from time to time.

 

Btw, it is not only the retail trader's stops that get hunted but also those of professional funds… there are many different participants in this big shark tank and everybody tries to "eat the other" :) … sometimes one party "wins", sometimes the other… that's what keeps participants in the game… the conviction that overall they come out as a winner… naturally this can only be true for some of them over a certain period of time… and for less and less participants the more this time period is extended...

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit. If someone does not like this reality of the market then he must stay away. Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee. Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Hello, daytrade999, sergso & estate1997,

 

Estate, thank you for the Like.

 

 

Stop hunting is a byproduct of everyone trying to win. At the end of the day stops will get hit.

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

I agree stop hunting is a fact of trading life. It was mentioned elsewhere in this thread that big players stop hunt each other as well as retail traders. It was also mentioned that active markets are so large and that the huge number of diverse players operate in their own interest. Maybe that is why anything can happen at any time and the returns appear to very closely match a normal probability distribution function as Harris suggested?

 

It is interesting because simple market returns also resemble, but do not exactly match, a normal PDF (reference the fat tails everybody knows).

 

However, the "simple returns" are NOT based on an arbitrary strategy as Harris imposed. Therefore I disagree with Harris' conclusion about the expectation of success for a "random" strategy. I think his assumptions are wrong because they require a set of parameters in his strategy that are very unrealistic and rarely if ever used in real trading.

 

First, a normal PDF requires discrete outcomes. It is true that trends and cycles also appear in random populations of discrete event/outcomes. However, the trends and cycles seen in market action are not discrete. They are the result of human behavior.

 

Second, his strategy is SAR (stop & reverse), with a large account, trading the minimum possy size, without leverage. That means the intra and closed trade draw downs could be huge. Even to the point of being one cent greater than the account balance that would trigger a margin call. Of course, that is an extreme but a 50% or greater draw down is commonly seen in a strategy like Harris used. There is more to say but I'm already running long and just these items demonstrate that Harris' trading rules are not realistic.

 

****Sergso, I'm not accusing, but requesting that you do not copy/paste my comments onto Harris' blog. I have no interest in defending or debating my statements. I know what I know and life is too short for that crap. Gurus have the bully pulpit and always the last word.****

 

The exception is that I am happy to discuss anything with the great folks on your thread. I'm eager to learn new stuff that can be profitable.

 

 

Thanks for all these great insights

 

I really want to know want to verify what you said on the post. So you are saying that you trade retracemente and that this works for you. ? I apologize for my lack of understand of your terms.

 

Feel free to comment and respond with true honesty.

 

Thanks dt999. I HONESTLY hope some of this will be helpful.

 

Yes, my primary method is to trade retraces that are counter to the larger trend. Therefore, my entry is in agreement with the larger trend.

 

Some reminders:

 

Retraces occur after very small moves up to the huge moves. The market is fractal so this most common of all patterns is seen everywhere. I choose move sizes that give

continuances of the larger trend with enough profit potential to justify the risk.

 

It is unrealistic to expect a market to hit a retrace level to the penny.

Therefor I use zones (ex. +/- 10 pips depending on the market) around the expected retrace price.

 

The fib levels are not mystical or exact. Remember, they are discretionary. You choose the high and low to use. However, I believe the huge mix of players, and their account sizes, and therefore their stop placements, may be related to the ancient golden ratio & fibs. We evolved to find that ratio pleasing in nature and in all aspects of life.

 

Wow! Another marathon post. But this time it is your fault! Ha!

 

Remember, please google and learn any of the words or concepts here you do not understand.

 

Finally, honesty is not my policy but I will do my best here.

 

Good luck in the new week!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Besides for most people the market is recreational activity for which they are willing pay a fee.

 

 

Lol… I'm not sure though whether they view it like this completely… most behave like this certainly.

 

 

 

Mike Harris in his blog argues based on statistical analysis results that the markets have been very generous even to gamblers.This is very interesting analysis that claims that about 35% of all traders of SPY have made some money even if we assume they traded randomly that that is based on the distribution of returns of a coin toss trading system.

 

Interesting analysis, especially for everyone still looking for the holy grail.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

This is true for every business. What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
What ia a relevant timeframe do you think? I think about 2 years should be enough with full-time trading.

 

Every one is different and I think given a person's resolve, anyone can end up being profitable trader eventually. It took me 4 years of full-time to start turning consistent profits.

 

With kind regards,

MK

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You'll likely have losing years and winning years from time to time unless you are very lucky and you only experience winning years. As long as you keep trading, you'll experience losing periods where it feels like you can't do anything right. Hopefully, you'll be able to identify these periods for what they are. If you can't, then the market gets control of you. However, if you know what you are doing (how to trade, what trading is, how markets work, how to manage money), then those losing periods end and you can and will win more than you lose even if you do not experience more than average luck.

 

When you enter a trade, you hope to take either a small loss or a large gain. On paper it looks like a simple plan. The rest of the market hopes that you take very little ( small gain) if you win and leave a lot (large loss) if you lose. If you are losing consistently, then you are allowing the market to control you, since you are taking small gains and large losses. There really is no other way to consistently lose if losing is the issue.

 

You could be transaction costing yourself broke too even though your gross profits exceed your gross losses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
If anyone is consistently losing even after trying everything, he/she should leave the trading space, he was not made for it.

 

I would question that statement, as there is no people who is incompatible with trading. Another important point is acquiring knowledge for that: somebody ju st leavy this rough going and give up with trading. Lacking persistency is the biggest issue in that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Consistently losing SMALL should be a normal part of the trading process. Learn risk management and position sizing. This is precisely why I created my website because people are quick to throw platitudes but they don't show how exactly to do it. Cut your loses short they say but that's all they say.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I found this article quite interesting. The idea is that consistent losers do not exit in reality because they could reverse what they do and become consistent winners. The consistent losing is probably due to overtrading and high commission cost and slippage. or even due to destructive behavior or maybe a special situation like being manipulated by a malicious broker.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I always thought it would be cool to have reverse trading system for the rookies that auto reverses every single trade, hence making about 90% of all traders on this system profitable.

 

But seriously - your stop is to close or in an obvious spot, and/or you are a sideways chop - better to get out until chop is resolved. The best freakin trading trick is when you are in a loosing trade if it goes big time against you from the on set than simply reverse your position - layering money in only when the profits are increasing on the existing position(s)

 

Aloha,

 

Dave

Commissions would kill. Novice traders are usually just getting the timing wrong, mismatching volatility with ability/time to break through support/resistance and not reading the bounce, etc. I'm convinced that no automated system(unless highest frequency bot)can adapt to the dynamic nature of the bid/ask system-as it is made up of collective human psychology.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 things you need to do if you keep losing money in the stock...
  1. Compound your winners, not your losers. Investors with a losing portfolio usually hold on to their losers and hope that one day their investments will turn around. ...
  2. Always invest in good companies. ...
  3. Diversify, but don't over-diversify. ...
  4. Give your tree time to grow. ...
  5. Opportunity is key.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/28/2013 at 1:22 PM, daytrade999 said:

Hi everyone,

 

I'm having problem with my trading and I want some help . I consider myself a swing trader and my method is following the trend and watching price action as confirmation for entry. My problem is I'm always losing . There are times when ny positions are in profit but I'm just not so sure when to move ny stops and then I get stopped out even when the trade was right. I try to cut losses by closing out positions that are not working the next day and Minot even sure if this is what people say cutting your losses short means. I need help people . Thanks .

check out Bookmap. The heat map can help you to see where the large level of buyers/sellers so you can put your stops accordingly and also tell you when the trend can be shifted when you are in a profitable trade.

ROKU@DXFEED_screenshot_20190318_155300_860.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/27/2020 at 2:28 PM, CrazyCzarina said:

Overtrading either trading too big or too often – is the most common reason why forex traders fail. Overtrading might be caused by unrealistically high profit goals, market addiction, or insufficient capitalization.

Agreed. Those are the most common reasons to fail. I needed a long time to just counter some of them and I'm still struggling with others.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/9/2019 at 2:00 PM, divyanshisharma said:
5 things you need to do if you keep losing money in the stock...
  1. Compound your winners, not your losers. Investors with a losing portfolio usually hold on to their losers and hope that one day their investments will turn around. ...
  2. Always invest in good companies. ...
  3. Diversify, but don't over-diversify. ...
  4. Give your tree time to grow. ...
  5. Opportunity is key.

Thanks by the way can you recommend some reliable broker? What do you think of Hotforex? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 15th April 2024. Market News – Negative Reversion; Safe Havens Rally. Trading Leveraged Products is risky Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Markets weigh risk of retaliation cycle in Middle East. Initially the retaliatory strike from Iran on Israel fostered a haven bid, into bonds, gold and other haven assets, as it threatens a wider regional conflict. However, this morning, Oil and Asian equity markets were muted as traders shrugged off fears of a war escalation in the Middle East. Iran said “the matter can be deemed concluded”, and President Joe Biden has called on Israel to exercise restraint following Iran’s drone and missile strike, as part of Washington’s efforts to ease tensions in the Middle East and minimize the likelihood of a widespread regional conflict. New US and UK sanctions banned deliveries of Russian supplies, i.e. key industrial metals, produced after midnight on Friday. Aluminum jumped 9.4%, nickel rose 8.8%, suggesting brokers are bracing for major supply chain disruption. Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex fell back from highs over 106 to currently 105.70. The Yen dip against USD to 153.85. USOIL settled lower at 84.50 per barrel and Gold is trading below session highs at currently $2357.92 per ounce. Copper, more liquid and driven by the global economy over recent weeks, was more subdued this morning. Currently at $4.3180. Market Trends:   Asian stock markets traded mixed, but European and US futures are slightly higher after a tough session on Friday and yields have picked up. Mainland China bourses outperformed overnight, after Beijing offered renewed regulatory support. The PBOC meanwhile left the 1-year MLF rate unchanged, while once again draining funds from the system. Nikkei slipped 1% to 39,114.19. On Friday, NASDAQ slumped -1.62% to 16,175, unwinding most of Thursday’s 1.68% jump to a new all-time high at 16,442. The S&P500 fell -1.46% and the Dow dropped 1.24%. Declines were broadbased with all 11 sectors of the S&P finishing in the red. JPMorgan Chase sank 6.5% despite reporting stronger profit in Q1. The nation’s largest bank gave a forecast for a key source of income this year that fell below Wall Street’s estimate, calling for only modest growth. Apple shipments drop by 10% in Q1. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • The morning of my last post I happened to glance over to the side and saw “...angst over the FOMC’s rate trajectory triggered a flight to safety, hence boosting the haven demand. “   http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/topic/21621-hfmarkets-hfmcom-market-analysis-services/page/17/?tab=comments#comment-228522   I reacted, but didn’t take time to  respond then... will now --- HFBlogNews, I don’t know if you are simply aggregating the chosen narratives for the day or if it’s your own reporting... either way - “flight to safety”????  haven ?????  Re: “safety  - ”Those ‘solid rocks’ are getting so fragile a hit from a dandelion blowball might shatter them... like now nobody wants to buy longer term new issues at these rates...yet the financial media still follows the scripts... The imagery they pound day in and day out makes it look like the Fed knows what they’re doing to help ‘us’... They do know what they’re doing - but it certainly is not to help ‘us’... and it is not to ‘control’ inflation... And at some point in the not too distant future, the interest due will eat a huge portion of the ‘revenue’ Re: “haven” The defaults are coming ...  The US will not be the first to default... but it will certainly not be the very last to default !! ...Enough casual anti-white racism for the day  ... just sayin’
    • Date: 12th April 2024. Producer Inflation On The Rise, But Will Earnings Hold Demand Steady?     Producer inflation rose slightly less than previous expectations, but the annual figure continues to rise. The annual PPI rose to 2.1% and the Core PPI rose to 2.4%. The NASDAQ and SNP500 end the day higher, but the Dow Jones continues to struggle. This morning earnings kick off with the banking sector including JP Morgan, BlackRock and Wells Fargo. All 3 stocks trade higher during pre-trading hours. The Euro trades lower against all currencies despite the ECB’s attempt to establish a hawkish tone. USA100 – The NASDAQ Climbs Higher, But Is the Growth Sustainable? The NASDAQ was the only index which did not witness a significant decline at the opening of the US session. In addition to this, the USA100 is the only index which is witnessing indications of a bullish market. The price has crossed onto a higher high breaking the resistance level at $18,269. The index is also trading above the 75-Bar EMA and at the 65.00 level on the RSI which signals buyers are controlling the market. However, a similar large bullish impulse wave was also formed on the 3rd and 5th of the month and was followed by a correction. Therefore, investors need to be cautious of a bearish breakout which may signal a correction back to the 75-bar EMA (18,165). The medium-term growth and its sustainability will depend on the upcoming earnings data.   Bond yields declined during this morning’s Asian session by 18 points, which is positive for the stock market. However, even with the decline, bond yields remain significantly higher than Monday’s opening yield. This week the 10-year bond yield rose from 4.424 to 4.558, which is a concern. If bond yields again start to rise, the stock market potentially can again become pressured. 25% of the NASDAQ ended the day lower and 75% higher. This gives a clear indication of the sentiment towards the technology sector and reassures traders about the price movement. Another positive was all of the top 12 influential stocks rose in value. Apple, NVIDIA and Broadcom saw the strongest gains, all rising more than 4%. Producer inflation read slightly lower than expectations, however, the index continues to rise. The Producer Price Index rose from 1.6% to 2.1% and the Core PPI from 2.1% to 2.4%. Therefore, it is not indicating inflation will become easier to tackle in the upcoming months. For this reason, investors should note that inflation and the monetary policy is still a risk and can trigger strong bearish impulse waves. EURUSD – The Euro Declines Against Major Currencies The European Central Bank is attempting to concentrate on the positive factors and give no indications of when the committee may opt to cut rates. For example, President Lagarde advises “sales figures” remain stable, but the issue remains they are stably low. Officials said the decline in prices generally confirms medium-term forecasts and is ensured by a decrease in the cost of food and goods. Most experts continue to believe that the first reduction in interest rates will happen in June, and there may be three or four in total during the year. Due to this, the Euro is declining against all currencies including the Pound, Yen and Swiss Franc. The US Dollar Index on the other hand trades 0.39% higher and is almost trading at a 23-week high. Due to this momentum, the price of the exchange continues to indicate a decline in favor of the US Dollar.   Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • $MSFT Microsoft stock top of range breakout above 433.1, https://stockconsultant.com/?MSFT
    • $AMZN stock just another breakout, https://stockconsultant.com/?AMZN
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.