Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

Guest OILFXPRO

Trading Mindsets is 80 % of Success

Recommended Posts

I would disagree with you and say we are actually very good at processing information, we are very efficient at it.....the problem is that often as you mention with cognitive biases we can delude ourselves with the results.

Training......

This is why you should back test, walk forward and also review and help minimise the harmful biases.....but even when this is done, sometimes some people are just not very good at handling the stresses involved in trading with real money....

Which I think this is the point you are getting at....but its only half the story.

 

Training, practice and review is required. This is discussed often but I would bet that many dont review their trades in a constructive way and hence are wasting their time. They dont review what they where thinking and asking themselves if they are simply miss reading the markets or deluding themselves etc....which is why i think the trading mindset is partially an issue as to why traders become idiots.

 

The other mindset for preparation and planning is just as important, as you need to train the mind to try and expel the idiot within - that which revenge trades, doubles up etc You cant just force him to stop. You need to give the idiot a reason to go away.

 

.....because if you trade on a demo and loose money and then still think you can make money live as it has no effect on you then you really have issues as a trader before you even begin.(not directly at you personally) :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
I would disagree with you and say we are actually very good at processing information, we are very efficient at it.....the problem is that often as you mention with cognitive biases we can delude ourselves with the results.

Training......

This is why you should back test, walk forward and also review and help minimise the harmful biases.....but even when this is done, sometimes some people are just not very good at handling the stresses involved in trading with real money....

Which I think this is the point you are getting at....but its only half the story.

 

Training, practice and review is required. This is discussed often but I would bet that many dont review their trades in a constructive way and hence are wasting their time. They dont review what they where thinking and asking themselves if they are simply miss reading the markets or deluding themselves etc....which is why i think the trading mindset is partially an issue as to why traders become idiots.

 

The other mindset for preparation and planning is just as important, as you need to train the mind to try and expel the idiot within - that which revenge trades, doubles up etc You cant just force him to stop. You need to give the idiot a reason to go away.

 

.....because if you trade on a demo and loose money and then still think you can make money live as it has no effect on you then you really have issues as a trader before you even begin.(not directly at you personally) :)

 

The type of opinion you provide is brandished in most internet marketing sites , the views of real psychologists may vary considerably.

 

I have never said that it is entirely due to money involved in a live account , in fact the whole thread is not about money , the first post shows it is about a load of other psyche issues.and money is not even mentioned in the first post..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The type of opinion you provide is brandished in most internet marketing sites , the views of real psychologists may vary considerably.

 

I have never said that it is entirely due to money involved in a live account , in fact the whole thread is not about money , the first post shows it is about a load of other psyche issues.and money is not even mentioned in the first post..

 

even if its brandished in most internet sites most dont do the work required even before trading, and after it....or if they did then they just went through the motions....your original post pretty much confirms that from what I can read.

 

You list a bunch of excuses from traders that you think are idiotic and that they should be fired if they dont follow the system they are given.

 

"Trading and successful trading is a simple process , it is the mindset of the trader which prevents them from being successful, they complicate it as listed above with all the issues and problems they create."

 

Is that the general gist of it?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
even if its brandished in most internet sites most dont do the work required even before trading, and after it....or if they did then they just went through the motions....your original post pretty much confirms that from what I can read.

 

You list a bunch of excuses from traders that you think are idiotic and that they should be fired if they dont follow the system they are given.

 

"Trading and successful trading is a simple process , it is the mindset of the trader which prevents them from being successful, they complicate it as listed above with all the issues and problems they create."

 

Is that the general gist of it?

 

Firstly I don't disagree with you on doing the hard work and doing everything in pre-training , most of this would be possible , but in reality it is too difficult to do .A trading job is multi multi task .The trader requires the skills of buddhist monk and his discipline ,he is a risk analyst and a risk manager , then he requires the skills of the hunter i.e patience and stalking , the skill to do nothing and stay out , the finally skill of exiting and executing the trade .During this whole process , the trader is judging himself and his trading and spending loads of energy looking at trades already done .

 

Brain science experts will provide more information on why processing so much information , during stress and duress with human emotions involved , with all the multi multi tasks information to be processed simultaneously ,is not humanly possibly.

 

Science facts: Our brains are bombarded by an estimated 2,000,000 bits of information every second. Processing such a huge amount of information would cause the brain to “freeze”. Therefore, we delete, distort and generalise most of it down to around 134 bits of information.What this means is that we choose only a tiny proportion of the total amount that is available to us, and those 134 bits of information we allow in to our brains are the things that determine what we call reality.

 

If our brains are not wired naturally to trading , we can't process all the multi tasks information , no amount of pre-planning and prepreparation is going to work in live trading.

 

This leads us to the mindset of the trader being the most important criteria in trading .Most of us go into trading and gambling , because we are undisciplined , if we had the discipline we would not touch trading.Why would you want to treat your self with losses ,negative emotions and rot our lives away sitting infront of a computer all day ?.We need a life!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO

 

All the issues you raise about the brain not being wired to manage risk is perfectly correct, but I'd suggest the fastest way of getting over that stuff is through the adoption of a more mechanical approach, at least until you get to the point where you start to get a feel for how an edge actually manifests itself.

 

Why does a discretionary trader need a psychologist ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brain science experts will provide more information on why processing so much information , during stress and duress with human emotions involved , with all the multi multi tasks information to be processed simultaneously ,is not humanly possibly.

 

Science facts: Our brains are bombarded by an estimated 2,000,000 bits of information every second. Processing such a huge amount of information would cause the brain to “freeze”. Therefore, we delete, distort and generalise most of it down to around 134 bits of information.What this means is that we choose only a tiny proportion of the total amount that is available to us, and those 134 bits of information we allow in to our brains are the things that determine what we call reality.

 

If our brains are not wired naturally to trading , we can't process all the multi tasks information , no amount of pre-planning and prepreparation is going to work in live trading.

 

This leads us to the mindset of the trader being the most important criteria in trading .Most of us go into trading and gambling , because we are undisciplined , if we had the discipline we would not touch trading.Why would you want to treat your self with losses ,negative emotions and rot our lives away sitting infront of a computer all day ?.We need a life!

 

If this is true then thats why a trader should test, train and review - so things become automatic. The brain of a 5 year old does not need to understand physics, gravity and such to ride a bike but they can do it.

We are not wired naturally to assess risks and probability - in fact we generally do it poorly- again this is why we test - to convince ourselves of it....and one of the reasons why you cant just pick up a set of instructions to trade and follow them. Probably the same as driving a car, bike, plane.....

By training well you eliminate the noise and concentrate on whats important.....not sure what else to say. ......

 

Problem is most dont or dont do it effectively - there is another thread http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/traders-log/16609-humbled-trading-log-40.html#post182965 which for me is why the mindset pre/post actual trading is important as well.

......................

 

.....as to getting a life - while I dont like the negative aspects of trading I much prefer this to a dead end corporate job where you still have 2million bits of info and nothing to apply it to or one sitting around doing nothing, and as such I understand the trades off involved and still choose to do it.....is it addiction or enjoyable..... go figure. :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Why does a discretionary trader need a psychologist ?

 

Similar question to which came first, the chicken, or the egg ?

 

I'm reasonably confident that you can probably teach someone to trade profitably without input from a psychologist. The problem is I don't think anyone whose capable of delivering that process would choose to do so.

 

That means anyone who really wants to do this is left with the option of figuring things out for themselves, and part of that might involve addressing some psychological issues.

 

I wouldn't recommend a 'trading psychologist' for what should be quite obvious reasons, but neither would I discount getting some help from a professional.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It occurred to me recently that "trading mindset" is just the voice in your head.Everybody has a voice in their head,traders and non traders.Chattering away all day.

For non traders and that includes traders when not trading,that voice says things like " i'm hungry,i'm gonna fix me a sandwich" pretty damn soon that sandwich is ready for eating.

"i'm gonna order another drink" Pretty soon that drink is in your hand."i'm gonna ring that co and give them a piece of my mind" Pretty soon,those fingers are punching out the numbers."That guy on the TV is talking crap" Pretty soon you'll be telling anyone,even complete strangers,exactly how the world should be run.

That voice in your head never shuts up.Even when you're asleep it's the one trying to tell you something in your dreams.The only time it shuts up is when you ask it what the hell the dream meant."i'm not telling you,work it out for yourself.Oh,alright,maybe it means this...or maybe it means that.Anyway,i need some breakfast,feed me"Pretty soon the dream is forgortten and breakfast is on the table.

The difference between traders and non traders is that traders have (finally) decided to ignore the voice in favour of something that actually works.At that point the voice starts saying the right things.Not all the time,but it gets overruled more often at the right times,than it did in the past...or when you're hungry.

Maybe that's what Steve46 is referring to when he uses the phrase "adult children"

The voice is the child and it needs to be reigned in by clear,calm,reasoned thinking by someone who knows the consequences of not doing that.

But how?

In my case the voice just said one day "aren't you sick to death of losing yet" ?

What does a psychologist do after all? Doesn't he just lead you to say the right words?

You either find the right words yourself or find someone else to help you find them.If not,you'll have to pay a psychologist to help you.

 

On the 80/20 rule implied by the thread title-

In the early days it will take more work to control your emotions/voice than it will later on.So that % will shift from 80/20 to something else I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It occurred to me recently that "trading mindset" is just the voice in your head.Everybody has a voice in their head,traders and non traders.Chattering away all day..................

 

That voice in your head never shuts up..

 

If the voices in you head are whats interesting Ekhart Tolle is worth a read (thanks Zdo for the reference)

Personally I dont get into some of his stuff but it can be interesting and relevant and it does talk about the voices.....

 

.....no it does not

.....yes it does

.....why I ought to wring your neck you m....f ,

..... stop it your only hurting yourself.

......no I am not

.....its me I am hurting which is myself.....

 

stuff this both of us are going back to trading - the voice in the head there is much easier to understand ....

yeah....plus you r stutting to blubbber like zdo...peeps

 

have a good weekend

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
It occurred to me recently that "trading mindset" is just the voice in your head

 

If only ...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What does a psychologist do after all? Doesn't he just lead you to say the right words?

You either find the right words yourself or find someone else to help you find them.

 

If only...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
I would disagree with you and say we are actually very good at processing information, we are very efficient at it.....the problem is that often as you mention with cognitive biases we can delude ourselves with the results.

 

When it comes to trading and processing trading information , we can not process information without biases , stress and emotions induced responses. Only psychologists who understand how we behave under stress and our responses under stress and emotions will understand this in detail.

 

When we process trading information , our information processing is contaminated , we are also trading information on uncertainty .Not only is our information processing contaminated , we are adding fuel to fire with this contamination , we are adding our biases ,fears,greed ,ego ,emotions and cognitive biases to the information processing.

 

No matter how good a system , if 10 different traders are given to use the same system , the 10 traders will have different results.In the case of processing trading information , the results show 95 % of traders lose.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When it comes to trading and processing trading information , we can not process information without biases , stress and emotions induced responses. Only psychologists who understand how we behave under stress and our responses under stress and emotions will understand this in detail.

 

When we process trading information , our information processing is contaminated , we are also trading information on uncertainty .Not only is our information processing contaminated , we are adding fuel to fire with this contamination , we are adding our biases ,fears,greed ,ego ,emotions and cognitive biases to the information processing.

 

No matter how good a system , if 10 different traders are given to use the same system , the 10 traders will have different results.In the case of processing trading information , the results show 95 % of traders lose.

 

speaking of 95% of the traders that lose.......I heard that many times as it is being written all over the place......is it true?........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
When it comes to trading and processing trading information , we can not process information without biases , stress and emotions induced responses. Only psychologists who understand how we behave under stress and our responses under stress and emotions will understand this in detail..

 

Absolutely - that is why you need to test and train and review and not just blindly follow a system....

....and WTF "only psychologists" - you dont need to be a psychologist to understand and get this.

Also here is a hint - test, train and review - it will help reduce the stress without the need of a professional. As to what to test - your own system!

 

 

When we process trading information , our information processing is contaminated , we are also trading information on uncertainty .Not only is our information processing contaminated , we are adding fuel to fire with this contamination , we are adding our biases ,fears,greed ,ego ,emotions and cognitive biases to the information processing.

 

Welcome to life ......which is why when it comes to trading for most people they need to do more than blindly a system......and you know what.....the fact that the markets wok with uncertainty means that we have to constantly do more than blindly follow.

You have merely introduced another bias by thinking we can accurately measure, model and perfectly map a system than can be blindly followed.

 

No matter how good a system , if 10 different traders are given to use the same system , the 10 traders will have different results.In the case of processing trading information , the results show 95 % of traders lose

 

....and here is the point.......

just blindly following a system that is not yours and understood by you based on how you think markets work it is almost doomed to failure. If you can give a system that works to 10 different computers would the results be different?

 

The point is - if you dont have a system that you know, understand and believe in because you developed it then you are likely to not follow the system......and that is the problem.

People think I just need to follow the system - why cant i follow the system - i need help following the system......

Its because they dont really believe in or know the system - they dont know them selves and the reasons why they do things and how they think the market works.

 

The work is far more than simply being 80% mental when it comes to blindly following....and that is just one reason why X% of traders fail.

 

If they developed any system themselves most would be likely to give up before they even start.

 

................

A lot of this clearly is revolving around discretionary systems as computerized automated ones should not be the issue - assuming they work.

We might be like Laurel and Hardy here discussing who's on first but I get from your first post that you think it is about following a system, whereas i think its about developing one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO

Siyua

 

If people are given a profitable system to follow , and paid to follow the system , why do people have problems ?

 

A rigid system with a set of rules can not be followed by hired staff , why?

 

People according to you can not follow systems.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
Absolutely - that is why you need to test and train and review and not just blindly follow a system....

....and WTF "only psychologists" - you dont need to be a psychologist to understand and get this.

Also here is a hint - test, train and review - it will help reduce the stress without the need of a professional. As to what to test - your own system!

 

 

 

 

Welcome to life ......which is why when it comes to trading for most people they need to do more than blindly a system......and you know what.....the fact that the markets wok with uncertainty means that we have to constantly do more than blindly follow.

You have merely introduced another bias by thinking we can accurately measure, model and perfectly map a system than can be blindly followed.

 

 

 

....and here is the point.......

just blindly following a system that is not yours and understood by you based on how you think markets work it is almost doomed to failure. If you can give a system that works to 10 different computers would the results be different?

 

The point is - if you dont have a system that you know, understand and believe in because you developed it then you are likely to not follow the system......and that is the problem.

People think I just need to follow the system - why cant i follow the system - i need help following the system......

Its because they dont really believe in or know the system - they dont know them selves and the reasons why they do things and how they think the market works.

 

The work is far more than simply being 80% mental when it comes to blindly following....and that is just one reason why X% of traders fail.

 

If they developed any system themselves most would be likely to give up before they even start.

 

................

A lot of this clearly is revolving around discretionary systems as computerized automated ones should not be the issue - assuming they work.

We might be like Laurel and Hardy here discussing who's on first but I get from your first post that you think it is about following a system, whereas i think its about developing one.

 

 

By your post , trend following is practically impossible , 80 % of potential trend entries fail.Technical analysis is junk science or voodoo science , where cognitive biases distort perception of technical set ups , hence why mindset is 80 %.

 

Without the 80 % mindset , you can not use crap science.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

....and here is the point.......

just blindly following a system that is not yours and understood by you based on how you think markets work it is almost doomed to failure. If you can give a system that works to 10 different computers would the results be different?

 

................

A lot of this clearly is revolving around discretionary systems as computerized automated ones should not be the issue - assuming they work.

We might be like Laurel and Hardy here discussing who's on first but I get from your first post that you think it is about following a system, whereas i think its about developing one.

 

Great post, and almost fully in agreement.

 

The point regarding running a system on 10 different computers is an interesting one. When i first started getting involved with developing automated systems i was always surprised at how greatly results varied between different traders testing fully automated systems.

 

Personally I found that people just will not follow even simple instructions. You tell them to run a system on a particular instrument, or timeframe, within certain hours, but they won't. I found by adding simple logging mechanism to the systems people where testing that the majority of testers simply cannot follow the most basic instructions.

 

I also found that when you can get a few people who will take things seriously, there's still quite a lot of variance in results, even small differences in broker data feeds tend to effect technical systems, and once systems start getting out of phase, all hell breaks loose.

 

As an example you might find 8 systems out of 10 trigger a buy trade at 8AM but 2 don't due to small differences in broker feed. Whilst those 8 systems are long, you might have a sell signal at 10:30, which is ignored by the 8 systems and only taken by the 2 systems that where flat. Same goes for exits, 6 out of your 8 longs might close on a stop, the remaining 2 the stop might not get triggered. Its quite interesting watching how fast these things get totally out of phase. In reality, getting a bunch of people to turn something on at precisely the same time every day is practically impossible.

 

That sort of stuff happens with retail bucket shops, and I assume its even worse with real markets and exchange traded products subject to real liquidity constraints where some systems are going to get a fill, some a partial fill, or not filled at all at a particular price. To be honest, I don't really have a firm grasp of the actual numbers because for the last decade or so I've used completely random entries so I no longer routinely track this sort of thing, but i do recall that trying to understand the reasons for the variance in returns from identical systems was quite an important element of getting a much better understanding of how I might actually make some money from this particular game,

 

I would probably argue that as the magnitude of the edge, either positive of negative does not have to be very large to either double or blow an account, and consequentially, very small fluctuations can have fairly significant consequences in the distribution of returns.

 

If those kinds of fluctuations exist even with systematic automated trading where developers are trying to exert tight control over the process, I hate to think what sort of random variations a discretionary trader is going to be subjected too.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
Trading Mindsets is 80 % of Success........anything to do with the Pareta principle?

 

No!

 

Most trades are 20% mechanics (system) & 80% is the individual psyche and psychology. If it was not correct , 10 different people would not execute the same system with different results , whereas 10 computers would execute it the same.

 

School Exams and results results :Same teachers and lectures in same school , but you get 40 different sets of marks..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
No!

 

Most trades are 20% mechanics (system) & 80% is the individual psyche and psychology. If it was not correct , 10 different people would not execute the same system with different results , whereas 10 computers would execute it the same.

 

School Exams and results results :Same teachers and lectures in same school , but you get 40 different sets of marks..

 

there is a saying that in any organization 80% of the work is actually being done by 20% of the people.......in other words, without that 20% the organization would fail........let's say we're in an industry and the compony is manufacturing something...........80% are "mechanics" like you say, and the other 20% probably management and the best 20% out of the 80% mechanics........

 

in your case here, I would say 20% is trading 80% is questioning if your decision was wrong or right.......without the first 20%, you won't have the 80%.........so master the first part and the second will just dissapear.........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
there is a saying that in any organization 80% of the work is actually being done by 20% of the people.......in other words, without that 20% the organization would fail........let's say we're in an industry and the compony is manufacturing something...........80% are "mechanics" like you say, and the other 20% probably management and the best 20% out of the 80% mechanics........

 

in your case here, I would say 20% is trading 80% is questioning if your decision was wrong or right.......without the first 20%, you won't have the 80%.........so master the first part and the second will just dissapear.........

 

I bought two dozen courses on various forums and spent $20, 000 on courses , only to realize the mentors were selling and advising but not trading , even the mentors were failing with 80 % and relying on selling education and advising others , instead of mastering the 20 % to eliminate the 80 %.

 

If you could master the 20 % , then you could reduce the 80 % , but then the same old saying "a leopard can never change it's spots".You could change the leopard's habitat.

 

If this is the case , why are so many failing , at least 95% fail according to hundreds of discussions on Google search?If your advise was the correct advise , why the 95 %.?Why not 40 % like accountants?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
I bought two dozen courses on various forums and spent $20, 000 on courses , only to realize the mentors were selling and advising but not trading , even the mentors were failing with 80 % and relying on selling education and advising others , instead of mastering the 20 % to eliminate the 80 %.

 

If you could master the 20 % , then you could reduce the 80 % , but then the same old saying "a leopard can never change it's spots".You could change the leopard's habitat.

 

If this is the case , why are so many failing , at least 95% fail according to hundreds of discussions on Google search?If your advise was the correct advise , why the 95 %.?Why not 40 % like accountants?

 

because those 95% that fail don't master the 20% needed to eliminate the 80% :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You guys are walking yourselves into the classic failure trap.

Yes, I read that you are talking about 95% failure rate in the 3rd person, but in reality you are talking in the 1st person.

 

You need to restart this thread and change the focus ...."5% of Retail Traders are successful ..what habits do they develop that makes them consistently successful"

 

If you keep analyzing failing habits ... guess what will happen to you.(if it hasn't already)

 

If you want to join the 5% Winners, you need to create a seamless you

Give up all the nitpicking self analysis and build yourself into a seamless person.

If you don't know how to do it, then you had better find out quickly or give up trading.

 

You need to understand how the market works and let go any childish notions of whether indicators, fibs etc work or they do not work.

There will come a time when you will know how to bait the trap into which price will move ...this knowledge comes from watching price with an open mind.

 

In other words, price is going to teach you how it can be trapped ... so just forget the friggin leopard and it's spots.... it is trying to catch a bunny that does not want to be caught ... price is not a bunny...quite the opposite in fact.

 

Can you not see that all you need to bring to the party is a seamless open mind coupled with a burning desire to win.

Price will show you the rest of the game and how to play it.

 

Siuya and Steve46 have good insights into trading IMO.

 

None of us can afford the luxury of delving into the minds of the 95% or more who fail.

This is a very dangerous place into which to wander and the sooner we position ourselves with the 5% Winners and their habits, the sooner we are properly functioning people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO
You guys are walking yourselves into the classic failure trap.

Yes, I read that you are talking about 95% failure rate in the 3rd person, but in reality you are talking in the 1st person.

 

You need to restart this thread and change the focus ...."5% of Retail Traders are successful ..what habits do they develop that makes them consistently successful"

 

If you keep analyzing failing habits ... guess what will happen to you.(if it hasn't already)

 

If you want to join the 5% Winners, you need to create a seamless you

Give up all the nitpicking self analysis and build yourself into a seamless person.

If you don't know how to do it, then you had better find out quickly or give up trading.

 

You need to understand how the market works and let go any childish notions of whether indicators, fibs etc work or they do not work.

There will come a time when you will know how to bait the trap into which price will move ...this knowledge comes from watching price with an open mind.

 

In other words, price is going to teach you how it can be trapped ... so just forget the friggin leopard and it's spots.... it is trying to catch a bunny that does not want to be caught ... price is not a bunny...quite the opposite in fact.

 

Can you not see that all you need to bring to the party is a seamless open mind coupled with a burning desire to win.

Price will show you the rest of the game and how to play it.

 

Siuya and Steve46 have good insights into trading IMO.

 

None of us can afford the luxury of delving into the minds of the 95% or more who fail.

This is a very dangerous place into which to wander and the sooner we position ourselves with the 5% Winners and their habits, the sooner we are properly functioning people.

 

There are many more far intelligent people on trading ,, like your education tests and results mentioned above , these people understand more about why you can get 40 different results.If Siuya (who is quite knowledgeable )

was a teacher , all students would get the same marks , according to you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Siyua

 

If people are given a profitable system to follow , and paid to follow the system , why do people have problems ?

 

A rigid system with a set of rules can not be followed by hired staff , why?

 

People according to you can not follow systems.

 

No!

 

Most trades are 20% mechanics (system) & 80% is the individual psyche and psychology. If it was not correct , 10 different people would not execute the same system with different results , whereas 10 computers would execute it the same.

 

School Exams and results results :Same teachers and lectures in same school , but you get 40 different sets of marks..

 

According to Zupcon from his own experience even ten computers wont get the same results....and your example of of school exams has way too many variables to really be worth a comparison IMHO. Plus unless its multiple choice marking it is too subjective.

(example I once re wrote an essay for a practice trial run copied word for word from someone who got 19/20 I received 13/20 - it reinforced my faith in the education system)

 

But you raise an interesting point....

 

It would be fair to say most is mental - but first you need to have BUY IN from the participants. They need to understand and believe a system - simply handing it to them will not mean they will be successful.....and the results are not a mental defect or problem that needs to be fixed.

 

Simply employing someone to run a system will not work for other reasons such as.

 

....and we have to assume the system is profitable over the long run....

.....and that people understand this, and know how it works.....(the buy in)

..... and that people are paid and also know that they will still have a job after diligently applying those rules even after a string of losses ( Hence another variable as to why people often dont follow rules)

.....and that the system has no discretion - other wise why not give it to a computer.

 

If you have ever heard from people trading in prop desks - often they reduce their stress through a simple mechanism - telling themselves - 'hey its not my money'.....

and when it comes to hiring people - pay peanuts and get monkeys - or are you saying you will pay top dollar for people to simply follow some rules?????

 

 

When if you have a simple set of rules that can be easily replicated and followed with very little discretion then UNLESS it can be shown that by using discretion and overriding those rules someone can get a better performance than the application of the rules then the default position should be to follow those rules.....why then dont people follow those rules?

 

I think it boils down mainly one of or a combination of -

...they dont agree with the rules in the first place as they did not develop them (buying into an idea is crucial in many areas)

....they think despite evidence they can improve on the rules (think of human history and development and progress. I dont know if this is something that we wish to alter.)

 

As to why someone who is employed and told to blindly follow the rules - easy - fire them when they dont and find someone who can - thats the joy of that side of the job :(

 

............................................

........................

For trend following.....from your post# 40

 

""""By your post , trend following is practically impossible , 80 % of potential trend entries fail.Technical analysis is junk science or voodoo science , where cognitive biases distort perception of technical set ups , hence why mindset is 80 %.

 

Without the 80 % mindset , you can not use crap science.""""

 

Curtis Faith a turtle trader who supposedly was the most successful of them understood his role was to follow the rules - and thats why he did well. He has also discussed where he knew it was hard to follow those rules, and why many did not.

The others did not follow the rules - the trend following worked - but people did not follow the rules because

Plenty of people have developed successful and not so successful trend following systems - they developed them! Riding the drawdowns on such system usually cause people to stop or to tweak them for all the wrong reasons.

 

I think (and going back to your first post and linking it to here) is you are looking at the difference of why people need to meddle and make excuses when given a system....as opposed to the mental aspect required to actually do the work of understanding....and this is where the hard work is.

 

(Like I said its mental and we may be talking about who is on first - but all the mental aspect is as to why we get under stress when actually trading. Most of it is because people don know what they are doing BEFORE the start, or reviewing and positively tweaking when they do trade. Alternatively this could simply be a business discussion about why is it that employees will not do what they are told) :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest OILFXPRO

SIUYA

 

I have a system that makes pips on back tests , so I paid peanuts and hired a bunch of monkeys .The system made 30 % in a month of back testing .I know the system can be implemented in live trading , and can make 30 % every month without compounding and can be repeated every month .

 

Zuppy will given a yacht and a flat in Peurto Banus.

 

This week I have hired a forum moderator from one of the forums , he is intelligent and experienced , I have offered upto $50 k a year for the right people

 

Where can I find the right people to implement my system?I am from a family on this list.

 

Africa?s Richest People List - Forbes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • $MRCY (MRCY) Mercury Computer System stock top of range breakout watch above 67.73, see also $MSFT ,analysis https://stockconsultant.com/?MRCY
    • Date : 22nd April 2019. Events to Look Out for Next Week.The shortened week starts with just one piece of news on Monday and Tuesday from the US, while Wednesday will be in focus as the UK Parliament returns from its Easter recess. US Durable Goods are out on Thursday along with the BoJ rate decision.Wednesday – 24 April 2019 CPI (AUD, GMT 01:30) – Australia’s inflation rate for Q1 is expected to have declined slightly to 1.7% y/y compared to 1.8% y/y in the final quarter of 2018. IFO (EUR, GMT 08:00) – Business climate in the largest EU country is expected to have grown marginally to 99.9 compared to 99.6 last month. Event of the week – BoC Interest Rate Decision (CAD, GMT 14:00) – At the BoC meeting, consensus expectations are that there should be no interest rate change. A sharper and more broadly based slowdown in the domestic economy, alongside a slowing in the global economy that has been more pronounced and widespread than anticipated saw the Bank state “the outlook continues to warrant a policy interest rate that is below its neutral range.” Thursday – 25 April 2019 Event of the week – Interest Rate Decision (JPY, GMT 02:00) – Among the core central banks, BoJ is firmly poised to be “low for longest”. Hence, once again BoJ is expected to keep the interest rate as it is, given that it appears to have finally had an impact on the Japanese economy. Durable Goods (USD, GMT 12:30) – March durable goods orders are expected to rise 0.2%, following a 1.6% February decline. Shipments expected to fall 1.5% in March, after a 0.2% reading in February. Tokyo CPI and Production Data (JPY, GMT 23:30) – The country’s main leading indicator of inflation is expected to have remained at 1.1% y/y in April. Industrial Production is expected to have improved, growing by 0.6% m/m in March, compared to -1.1% m/m in February, while Retail Sales are expected to have increased by 1.2% y/y, compared to 0.6% in March. Friday – 26 April 2019 US Gross Domestic Product (USD, GMT 12:30) – The economy’s most important figure, Q1 GDP is expected to rise 2.6%, following a 2.2% pace in Q4 and 3.4% growth in Q3. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business.Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.Click HERE to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE!Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HotForex Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Hello, newbie. hope you are doing well. So what are your interests? Forex or Stock market? Are you trader?
    • I think " Follow a disciplined investment approach " this is also good point which every trader should consider for their trading.
    • what is automatized signals?  im just searching for providers cus im new to the signal scene.  recently joined a provider called fxsignalpremier for free signals. but do you know more?
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.