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humbled

Humbled Trading Log

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Today's test at my #1 (marked on my chart this am) level did have a slight bend into resistance but reversed without a clear trigger setup. I did not see swings even on the 1 minute to react to so I sit and watch until price reacts again in the right zones.

 

I started to look for that short signal when SPX cash broke back under 1638 1639

 

 

Humbled

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Price opening in a tight range and staying there for 5 - 60 minutes and then breaking out of that range is a clear indication that price might be ready to favor the direction of the breakout.

 

For example, 1630-27.25 for fifteen minutes, and now I'm Long ES 30.25, stop below today's session low. I'll be watching for reversal at yesterday's 1633.50 high, or a break and hold above yesterday's high. Above yesterday's high, my target becomes the 6/10 high (42.50 basis ESU).

 

 

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales,

 

 

I will merge this with my lessons and learn from it. I could not even consider that option as my plan did not have that area highlighted when I started the day. When I am consistent maybe I will be allowed to act on reactions like this one you highlighted. Not sure when I will earn that right but maybe soon :)

 

According to a prior lesson and my current knowledge that was in the middle of 2 zones and I hold off from all trades right now that trigger away from critical levels.

 

Thanks :)

 

Humbled

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Today's test at my #1 (marked on my chart this am) level did have a slight bend into resistance but reversed without a clear trigger setup. I did not see swings even on the 1 minute to react to so I sit and watch until price reacts again in the right zones.

 

I started to look for that short signal when SPX cash broke back under 1638 1639

 

 

Humbled

 

Are you trading 2b's at all, or just 123's? One minute 123 on the 2B with an ESU 1633.25 sell stop. Which would have given the same short entry as selling the break of the 10:05 - 10:10 range low, with a stop 1-3 ticks above the high of the day.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Are you trading 2b's at all, or just 123's? One minute 123 on the 2B with an ESU 1633.25 sell stop. Which would have given the same short entry as selling the break of the 10:05 - 10:10 range low, with a stop 1-3 ticks above the high of the day.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

Thales,

 

Yes it was a 2b. I need to remember to look for both. I was looking for a 123. I am a little slow on the quick charts still taking in all of the lessons. A valid short trade to 1624 SPX cash today.

 

Humbled

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Watch this pattern - a double bottom/2B, this one on the 5 minute SPX ... a money maker over the long run.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=36309&stc=1&d=1371225580

 

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=36310&stc=1&d=1371225580

 

The only thing certain is that is no sure thing, and it sometimes happens that the market will make a third push down, especially when the second bottom failed to reach either a prior high/low or midpoint of the most recent swing. But it gives you a defined risk point, and the profit objective is a retest of the swing high from which the initial decline started. In this case, basis the ESU, the buy stop could be either 23.75 or 24.25, and the stop loss 21.25, and a limit order would be placed one tick below today's high, at 34.75.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa711e87b645_WatchforThis.PNG.f95251b1c7e3473abfdcaf9549b7a050.PNG

5aa711e88206d_WatchforThisII.png.d61503eaa03b49c54fb93fd123caa48d.png

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I am long from this low at 1618 on the Sept. ES contact. A have a stop at the swing low.

 

Good ... look at this chart. It is the same pattern (smaller swings, but same pattern) as I showed a few hours ago, but this time it occurred right at the midpoint of this morning's high and yesterday's low - evidence that it is usually best to let trades go by that are not setting up at S/R.

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=36311&stc=1&d=1371234447

 

So far today, your S/R levels as identified by you prior to the market opne have proven to be relevant to today's trade. Even if this rally doesn't stick (and I'm not saying it won't) but even if it does not, you could have traded for a solid profit based upon your identification of potential S/R areas.

 

Making Progress:

 

attachment.php?attachmentid=36312&stc=1&d=1371235025

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

5aa711e8890a5_WatchforThisIII.thumb.png.84c773796ea7bca0d496b9a349665252.png

5aa711e890813_WatchforThisIV.thumb.png.359c52c4f4579c8a2a58752d48c4a010.png

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I just closed my long from 1618 at near break even. The market is about to close and the last define swing low at 1619.50 has been taken out. Right or wrong, I am sure I need some advice on trade management.

 

 

Humbled

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The gap this morning did not fill but was right near resistance. We are right above the prior resistance level in my morning chart so I took this trade but into lunch time looks like a stop.

5aa711e9075f7_6-17-201311-35-49AM.thumb.png.c738ed7ff539a5c2ede136214435b1c9.png

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Stopped on both attempts. Following the rules I know of but maybe missing something in the review.

 

This is my standard day trading issue. Periods of consistent losses followed by a lottery play that makes a big move.

 

 

Humbled

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The last trade bounced off the mid level and moved to the next resistance which was an issue from the morning pop.

 

The risk reward on these trades bother me. I am always looking to risk smaller on my losses than my gains due to my prior losses. Not sure how to fix this.

 

 

I figured I could not hold overnight with a bounce that stopped directly where price had rallied past in the morning leaving this as a lower high after the pullback.

 

Maybe I should have risked for a move?:crap:

 

 

Humbled

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Stopped on both attempts. Following the rules I know of but maybe missing something in the review.

 

This is my standard day trading issue. Periods of consistent losses followed by a lottery play that makes a big move.

 

 

Humbled

 

Trade One: Had you entered on the break of Friday's high, or, looked for a pullback to Friday's high after the breakout, you might still have posted a loss, but probably a smaller one. Otherwise, it was not a bad place to look, and since the gap had not filled, the odds favored the long side; however, as you noted, the resistence near 1650 would have been a concern for a long, and it would have been a spot to be looking for a possible short.

 

Trade two: I don't see a 2B anywhere near where it looks like you bought. You should post a chart annotating what you are seeing.

 

Trade Three: No reason to hold anything over night that is not closing at or near the day's highs. Follow through is most likely when a close is at or near an extreme. That doesn't mean the market can't or won't gap higher today.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

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Trade One: Had you entered on the break of Friday's high, or, looked for a pullback to Friday's high after the breakout, you might still have posted a loss, but probably a smaller one. Otherwise, it was not a bad place to look, and since the gap had not filled, the odds favored the long side; however, as you noted, the resistence near 1650 would have been a concern for a long, and it would have been a spot to be looking for a possible short.

 

Trade two: I don't see a 2B anywhere near where it looks like you bought. You should post a chart annotating what you are seeing.

 

Trade Three: No reason to hold anything over night that is not closing at or near the day's highs. Follow through is most likely when a close is at or near an extreme. That doesn't mean the market can't or won't gap higher today.

 

Best Wishes,

 

Thales

 

 

Thales,

 

 

A very powerful post as I adjust to these comments. Thank you for the input.

 

On my first trade I did not see a better entry. It was a breakout and I thought I took the first executable pattern.

 

On my 2nd trade I was looking at a 1 minute chart on the ES and said that comment. This was an error when I look back as this was a micro pierce under and had no clear structure.

 

On the third trade it looks like I was correct and exited well.

 

So far this is progress but the risk reward does not excite me for many of my recent entries. Is this something I might need to solve with a basket of more than just the SPX cash??? I also feel this is caused by the tight range in the SPX right now so more levels are close together to contend with.

 

 

Thanks ALWAYS,

 

Humbled

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Here is an image of this mornings trade. A positive outcome. The entry was after a level was taken and I sold once a spike occurred above the next resistance level. I used the 123 pattern for both the entry and exit.

5aa711e9845e7_6-18-201311-55-15AM.thumb.png.c4815f5466fbe2453dc938279b02d0d5.png

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I might have exited at this area on that trade I missed based on this time of day. Would love advice if I would have been best moving stop up and just holding for next resistance if we close near the high today.

5aa711e9be4c5_6-18-20133-13-22PM.thumb.png.17392e05588fa7e79805a98a2bd1cdb9.png

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I missed that 2nd entry. This will not be the first or the last time this happens but I will work to contain the errors I make. I am learning every day.

 

 

Humbled

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I might have exited at this area on that trade I missed based on this time of day. Would love advice if I would have been best moving stop up and just holding for next resistance if we close near the high today.

 

I think Thales is doing an excellent job guiding you, so I won't interfere in that. But it is worth saying that you're doing well, and you should be encouraged. Very nice journal.

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I did take a long today near my key level test. Once a test was made near the 1646 SPX cash level, I waited for an executable trade which formed at 1648.9. I considered an exit at the 2B top pattern 1651.80 but simply moved my stop to cost because I would consider this trading in the middle.

 

 

From the suggestions I get I will tighten up this plan.

 

Humbled

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