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humbled

Humbled Trading Log

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Hey Humbled .... as per your request, here was what I was watching and traded today.

 

15min chart clearly showed trend line support. So after about 5mins of holding that support and buy volume was steady I entered long with a stop below that TL. Notice it was also a 1 week volume POC. That's what we call chart "confluence".

 

3hchXnv.png

 

The 5min shows my targets. First target was the trend line. I actually sold my whole position there. Wasn't really using what I considered a position worth scaling from. I re-entered after it retraced back to the TL and tested it for support. Only used half of the position size of my first trade. Next target was the 2 day volume POC.

 

t2rLatX.png

 

I want to point out something that I've observed. Remember late yesterday there was that vicious sell off from the VWAP down to 161.08 .... look at the candle count. Anytime I see 8-9 straight down candles the first thing in my head is "stop run". Don't base your trading around it, but try to observe it if you ever see it on a chart.

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

Super info. I am working to understand some of your concepts and methods here. Please keep sharing as it will take some time to absorb.

 

Humbled

PS I did study volume today but I am still learning to read it like you have shown. Clearly the answer is a slightly longer time frame. The 1 minute has too many signs to decipher.

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This was a bad trade. I have no faith in the current setup so hard to take any trade with conviction of any kind.

 

 

Beyond frustrated. Wrong attitude for trading. I will go back and read DB and study the POC and VWAP.

 

Humbled

5aa711ef04ba4_7-2-201311-48-12AM.thumb.png.6f0acd145d3e28b8ff5da8334028a55b.png

Edited by humbled

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Enigmatics,

 

Super info. I am working to understand some of your concepts and methods here. Please keep sharing as it will take some time to absorb.

 

Humbled

PS I did study volume today but I am still learning to read it like you have shown. Clearly the answer is a slightly longer time frame. The 1 minute has too many signs to decipher.

 

I stay the hell away from 1mins. No thank you. IMO that's a professional scalpers chart. Guys who use it are a cut above the rest and really know they're support/resistance levels. It requires operating with air-tight precision.

 

Again, the mindset with using volume POC's is that they act as magnets if you know which side has the control of the orderflow. It's why this market spends quite a bit of time performing "mean reversion" after an "extreme" has been reached when buyers/sellers run out of ammo. Picture it like throwing a ball into the air. It's going to come right back down to you if you don't figure out a way to build something (i.e. support) so as to go catch it at a higher level.

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I stay the hell away from 1mins. No thank you. IMO that's a professional scalpers chart. Guys who use it are a cut above the rest and really know they're support/resistance levels. It requires operating with air-tight precision.

 

Again, the mindset with using volume POC's is that they act as magnets if you know which side has the control of the orderflow. It's why this market spends quite a bit of time performing "mean reversion" after an "extreme" has been reached when buyers/sellers run out of ammo. Picture it like throwing a ball into the air. It's going to come right back down to you if you don't figure out a way to build something (i.e. support) so as to go catch it at a higher level.

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

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Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

 

Another way to look at it is ..... this is an "auction" process. Volume POC's represent where the most buyers/sellers "agree" on price in a current auction or a previous one. Naturally, if demand or supply run out while it's being bid up or bid down, at what level is the most interest going to strike back up again?

Edited by Enigmatics

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Here you go Humbled. The day's bounce trade off the bottom.....

 

- There was a clearcut sell climax (exhaustion) at today's bottmo

- A massive demand volume bar kicked in at about 2:50pmEST, which overcame supply

- Trend line was broken and held with higher lows

- Price reverted back to yesterday's POC at 161.25

 

I actually screwed this one up though. I took the trade on a break of the 160.88 level. It moved up to 161.07 then dipped on me below my entry. I bailed and then of course a stop volume candle occurred and it put in a higher low.

 

My sell was naive because nowhere in the dip did the selling pick up to outside that big volume demand bar. I should've showed more patience in waiting out a higher low.

 

HLagITS.png

Edited by Enigmatics

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Here you go Humbled. The day's bounce trade off the bottom.....

 

- There was a clearcut sell climax (exhaustion) at today's bottmo

- A massive demand volume bar kicked in at about 2:50pmEST, which overcame supply

- Trend line was broken and held with higher lows

- Price reverted back to yesterday's POC at 161.25

 

I actually screwed this one up though. I took the trade on a break of the 160.88 level. It moved up to 161.07 then dipped on me below my entry. I bailed and then of course a stop volume candle occurred and it put in a higher low.

 

My sell was naive because nowhere in the dip did the selling pick up to outside that big volume demand bar. I should've showed more patience in waiting out a higher low.

 

HLagITS.png

 

 

Enigmatics,

 

I love the honesty in your post and I appreciate the review. What is the best way to derive the POC #'s for SPX so I can highlight them or do I need to move to SPY to find them.

 

I will start watching reactions at these levels. I have included a chart using a tool called TPO in ThinkorSwim. Showing just one day of price action leads to a line today at 1622.09.

 

Thanks for your assistance.

 

Humbled

5aa711ef10d5c_7-2-20135-36-22PM.thumb.png.682e0d510be2d7094edba1c27b16aef1.png

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Another way to look at it is ..... this is an "auction" process. Volume POC's represent where the most buyers/sellers "agree" on price in a current auction or a previous one. Naturally, if demand or supply run out while it's being bid up or bid down, where is the most interest level going to strike back up again?

 

When I buy and you sell, we agree on price, but we disagree on direction. The POC, then. could be viewed as the price where most people disagreed on direction during a time period.

Edited by MightyMouse

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When I buy and you sell, we agree on price, but we disagree on direction. The POC, then. could be viewed as the price where most people disagreed on direction during a time period.

 

Ya, you can definitely look at it that way. The volume POC is a non-directional congestion point. It's the price where volume happens the most often i.e. "the mode". It can act as support/resistance and generally speaking is not the easiest place to take a trade from unless you're good at spotting the visual cues of when new value is being sought out.

Edited by Enigmatics

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Enigmatics,

 

I love the honesty in your post and I appreciate the review. What is the best way to derive the POC #'s for SPX so I can highlight them or do I need to move to SPY to find them.

 

I will start watching reactions at these levels. I have included a chart using a tool called TPO in ThinkorSwim. Showing just one day of price action leads to a line today at 1622.09.

 

Thanks for your assistance.

 

Humbled

 

Actually, don't use TPO. Those are "Time Priced Opportunities" otherwise known as MarketProfile. They act similarly, but are not based on volume. The one you want is called "VolumeProfile" and it's in the same "Profiles" section as where you found TPO. Then you can go into the settings and make sure POC's get color coded. The pillars of "Market Auction Theory" were originally applied to MarketProfile, but you can use it just the same on VolumeProfile.

 

As a reference point I'm always paying attention to:

 

- Today's VPOC

- Yesterday's VPOC

- The 2 Day VPOC

- 1 Week VPOC

- 1 month VPOC

- Quarterly VPOC

- 6 month VPOC

- Yearly VPOC

 

Obviously when you're day trading all of those are not always going to be serviceable, but it's up to you the night before to know if they're going to come into play. The SPX and SPY will each have their own volume profile makeup, but on most occasions should be very similar.

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Enigmatics,

 

I could not agree with you more (Again). I did not select the time frame, I want to be a good student so I do as I am told but I can tell you the 1 minute has not served me well so far.

 

I am reviewing the POC and ideas you have presented as I know the current method is not working. I will be soaking up as much as I can in review of the charts you have posted.

 

Humbled (beyond belief)

 

Just some questions for you to think about, and you don't need to answer.

 

You previously posted that you believed you needed to become consistent. How do you expect to trade consistently if you are not consistent in your method? I observe you are switching between 1 minute and 2 minute bar intervals, and one trade you have stops in a defined place but then another trade you are moving them/exiting because you have no belief in the system, and now you're almost ready to throw the idea away because you don't believe it's working for you (at least not on 1 minute bar interval)?

 

 

Is this number of trades really enough to convince you that it's not working? Especially given that you're only learning it...haven't really sorted out your exits...and are breaking the rules.

 

Is changing approach every time you hit a rough patch the route to consistency?

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Just some questions for you to think about, and you don't need to answer.

 

You previously posted that you believed you needed to become consistent. How do you expect to trade consistently if you are not consistent in your method? I observe you are switching between 1 minute and 2 minute bar intervals, and one trade you have stops in a defined place but then another trade you are moving them/exiting because you have no belief in the system, and now you're almost ready to throw the idea away because you don't believe it's working for you (at least not on 1 minute bar interval)?

 

 

Is this number of trades really enough to convince you that it's not working? Especially given that you're only learning it...haven't really sorted out your exits...and are breaking the rules.

 

Is changing approach every time you hit a rough patch the route to consistency?

 

 

 

Seeker ,

 

Some good points here. Let me address them

 

 

My plan as Thales directed so far was to look for a Trader Vice 123 or 2b pattern VERY close to a key level. I was allowed to use 5 minute charts until we got close. I then was told to zoom in and take my entry on a one minute time frame. I have applied this approach verbatim or at least as close as I could.

 

As I experienced these trades I was given examples of when Thales cut them short, when he allowed the trade to work and when he saw things that suggested that a loss should not be taken. I have done my best to attempt to react like that but its not learned yet.

 

Thales suggested that I read DB's work and start to work that in. I am learning that as well right now.

 

What you are seeing is the frustration of me trying to execute a pattern that occurs all around these key levels. It occurs several times in both direction at one of these levels. Without the filter to define which ones to omit and which ones to take, I feel like a pin cushion. I am sure as I understand more of what Thales has wanted me to learn I will find many of these attempts filtered.

 

I am watching 2 min and other time frames trying to read volume and observe. On Thales own suggestion he said I could observe volume but he also mentioned he does not use it. As he shares more I can understand how to control the abundance of signals and decides on direction. In the absence, while Thales is away I am doing the observing he mentioned

 

As for the 1 minute comment. I admit it is very fast and I find many false signals but I have followed the plan. The poor exit is a mixture of my attempts to read what Thales meant from previous posts. Thales has given me many pieces of the puzzle but I am struggling to put them together.

 

I must admit I studied Thales history and the trading of his daughter who started at 9 years old and has done very well. I noticed many comments that she managed trades with a stop or a target and did not get in the way of the trade but I have not arrived at that point yet. I have attempted to adjust based on Thales responses. He must have a reason for teaching me this way.

 

Maybe the addition of Supply and Demand lines from DB's work will add to the setup. Maybe I will be more confused. I can't say yet.

 

Seeker if I had my druthers, of course I would ask for exact directions. Why. How. A totally transparent view but clearly Thales has shared in a process that he feels will help me.

 

I can tell you at this point something is missing as I fumble around each key level switching back and forth in a rush to read what the market is saying. Maybe after some clarity is added my frustration level will drop.

 

Humbled

 

PS. I actually think I have done a pretty good interpreting what has been said if you read all of the directions I have been given but I have simply shared the whole experience including the pressure of low accuracy and lower reward trading.

Edited by humbled

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Seeker ,

 

Some good points here. Let me address them

 

 

My plan as Thales directed so far was to look for a Trader Vice 123 or 2b pattern VERY close to a key level. I was allowed to use 5 minute charts until we got close. I then was told to zoom in and take my entry on a one minute time frame. I have applied this approach verbatim or at least as close as I could.

 

As I experienced these trades I was given examples of when Thales cut them short, when he allowed the trade to work and when he saw things that suggested that a loss should not be taken. I have done my best to attempt to react like that but its not learned yet.

 

Thales suggested that I read DB's work and start to work that in. I am learning that as well right now.

 

What you are seeing is the frustration of me trying to execute a pattern that occurs all around these key levels. It occurs several times in both direction at one of these levels. Without the filter to define which ones to omit and which ones to take, I feel like a pin cushion. I am sure as I understand more of what Thales has wanted me to learn I will find many of these attempts filtered.

 

I am watching 2 min and other time frames trying to read volume and observe. On Thales own suggestion he said I could observe volume but he also mentioned he does not use it. As he shares more I can understand how to control the abundance of signals and decides on direction. In the absence, while Thales is away I am doing the observing he mentioned

 

As for the 1 minute comment. I admit it is very fast and I find many false signals but I have followed the plan. The poor exit is a mixture of my attempts to read what Thales meant from previous posts. Thales has given me many pieces of the puzzle but I am struggling to put them together.

 

I must admit I studied Thales history and the trading of his daughter who started at 9 years old and has done very well. I noticed many comments that she managed trades with a stop or a target and did not get in the way of the trade but I have not arrived at that point yet. I have attempted to adjust based on Thales responses. He must have a reason for teaching me this way.

 

Maybe the addition of Supply and Demand lines from DB's work will add to the setup. Maybe I will be more confused. I can't say yet.

 

Seeker if I had my druthers, of course I would ask for exact directions. Why. How. A totally transparent view but clearly Thales has shared in a process that he feels will help me.

 

I can tell you at this point something is missing as I fumble around each key level switching back and forth in a rush to read what the market is saying. Maybe after some clarity is added my frustration level will drop.

 

Humbled

 

PS. I actually think I have done a pretty good interpreting what has been said if you read all of the directions I have been given but I have simply shared the whole experience including the pressure of low accuracy and lower reward trading.

 

 

Humbled, I think you have done well, and said so. I am posing questions because it seemed like you were giving up on the approach already. Jumping from one thing to another because of short term poor performance is one of the things that makes trading well take so long.

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Humbled ....

 

Definitely read what DB writes, but honestly it's very advanced material. I wouldn't even try to use it to trade for some time .... until it sinks in and really makes sense.

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Humbled, I think you have done well, and said so. I am posing questions because it seemed like you were giving up on the approach already. Jumping from one thing to another because of short term poor performance is one of the things that makes trading well take so long.

 

Seeker,

 

I will stay the course. I am frustrated in the moment but I will keep at it. You are right. If I run away I will never get a method down. I will always be switching and consistency will never develop.

 

 

Humbled

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just saying, I kind of agreeing with seeker here...one of the most important rules in trading is to be consistent.........not flip flop as your analysis might just be good when tested long enough

 

Tradingwizzard,

 

You and Seeker are right. I would not have quit but I see your point and I will not flip flop.

 

 

Humbled

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Humbled ....

 

Definitely read what DB writes, but honestly it's very advanced material. I wouldn't even try to use it to trade for some time .... until it sinks in and really makes sense.

 

Very advanced? Now that made me smile. It's as basic as one can get. Unfortunately, traders have been so bedazzled by all the bells and whistles that have been shoved at them over the past eighty years than they literally cannot tell up from down. Silence all of that and ignore virtually everything that one has read or been told and give reality an opportunity to emerge. It's a choice between the blue pill and the red pill.

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Very advanced? Now that made me smile. It's as basic as one can get. Unfortunately, traders have been so bedazzled by all the bells and whistles that have been shoved at them over the past eighty years than they literally cannot tell up from down. Silence all of that and ignore virtually everything that one has read or been told and give reality an opportunity to emerge. It's a choice between the blue pill and the red pill.

 

 

DbPhoenix,

 

Thank you for showing up here. Your method is not advanced to me but I often have to read and re-read to get the information distilled down. That is a function of my own comprehension.

If you review my thread you will see that Thales is coaching me and has suggested that I learn your stuff as part of it. I am currently working the Supply and Demand lines into my entry method. I will be posting charts with my application of your eBooks and welcome your input.

 

 

At this moment I cannot tell up from down but I look forward to having my eyes opened.

 

 

Humbled

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DbPhoenix,

 

Thank you for showing up here. Your method is not advanced to me but I often have to read and re-read to get the information distilled down. That is a function of my own comprehension.

If you review my thread you will see that Thales is coaching me and has suggested that I learn your stuff as part of it. I am currently working the Supply and Demand lines into my entry method. I will be posting charts with my application of your eBooks and welcome your input.

 

 

At this moment I cannot tell up from down but I look forward to having my eyes opened.

 

 

Humbled

 

For years I've criticized people -- and not in a good way -- for neglecting to read a thread before they butt in with their redundant and irrelevant comments. But I'm going to do just that, partly because of time, partly because you asked for my help, and partly because previous posts aren't necessarily pertinent. I'm sure you've received plenty of good advice, but you're going to have to go deeper than that in order to turn things around.

 

First, what is your trading plan?

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For years I've criticized people -- and not in a good way -- for neglecting to read a thread before they butt in with their redundant and irrelevant comments. But I'm going to do just that, partly because of time, partly because you asked for my help, and partly because previous posts aren't necessarily pertinent. I'm sure you've received plenty of good advice, but you're going to have to go deeper than that in order to turn things around.

 

First, what is your trading plan?

 

DbPhoenix,

 

I just forwarded a PM with a download link to my current work in progress.

 

Humbled

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DbPhoenix,

 

I just forwarded a PM with a download link to my current work in progress.

 

Humbled

 

1. Approved Instruments

SPX Cash Only via ES Emini Trades

 

OK. Why? And if I seem abrupt, it's only because I want to get things moving, as I'm sure you do.

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1. Approved Instruments

SPX Cash Only via ES Emini Trades

 

OK. Why? And if I seem abrupt, it's only because I want to get things moving, as I'm sure you do.

 

 

DbPhoenix,

 

I was instructed to take all levels from the SPX Cash index. I post these each night or morning before the market. I attempted one trade in Globex and it was suggested that I did not have a clear picture of my level because the cash index was closed.

 

My guess was that Thales wanted to protect me from low volume overnight stuff. I did not question it as I am sooooo appreciative of the help and thankful for the direction after such struggle.

 

Humbled

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Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past perfrmance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. 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    • Date: 18th April 2024. Market News – Stock markets benefit from Dollar correction. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Technical buying, bargain hunting, and risk aversion helped Treasuries rally and unwind recent losses. Yields dropped from the recent 2024 highs. Asian stock markets strengthened, as the US Dollar corrected in the wake of comments from Japan’s currency chief Masato Kanda, who said G7 countries continue to stress that excessive swings and disorderly moves in the foreign exchange market were harmful for economies. US Stockpiles expanded to 10-month high. The data overshadowed the impact of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as traders await Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented recent attack. President Joe Biden called for higher tariffs on imports of Chinese steel and aluminum.   Financial Markets Performance:   The USDIndex stumbled, falling to 105.66 at the end of the day from the intraday high of 106.48. It lost ground against most of its G10 peers. There wasn’t much on the calendar to provide new direction. USDJPY lows retesting the 154 bottom! NOT an intervention yet. BoJ/MoF USDJPY intervention happens when there is more than 100+ pip move in seconds, not 50 pips. USOIL slumped by 3% near $82, as US crude inventories rose by 2.7 million barrels last week, hitting the highest level since last June, while gauges of fuel demand declined. Gold strengthened as the dollar weakened and bullion is trading at $2378.44 per ounce. Market Trends:   Wall Street closed in the red after opening with small corrective gains. The NASDAQ underperformed, slumping -1.15%, with the S&P500 -0.58% lower, while the Dow lost -0.12. The Nikkei closed 0.2% higher, the Hang Seng gained more than 1. European and US futures are finding buyers. A gauge of global chip stocks and AI bellwether Nvidia Corp. have both fallen into a technical correction. The TMSC reported its first profit rise in a year, after strong AI demand revived growth at the world’s biggest contract chipmaker. The main chipmaker to Apple Inc. and Nvidia Corp. recorded a 9% rise in net income, beating estimates. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • Date: 17th April 2024. Market News – Appetite for risk-taking remains weak. Economic Indicators & Central Banks:   Stocks, Treasury yields and US Dollar stay firmed. Fed Chair Powell added to the recent sell off. His slightly more hawkish tone further priced out chances for any imminent action and the timing of a cut was pushed out further. He suggested if higher inflation does persist, the Fed will hold rates steady “for as long as needed.” Implied Fed Fund: There remains no real chance for a move on May 1 and at their intraday highs the June implied funds rate future showed only 5 bps, while July reflected only 10 bps. And a full 25 bps was not priced in until November, with 38 bps in cuts seen for 2024. US & EU Economies Diverging: Lagarde says ECB is moving toward rate cuts – if there are no major shocks. UK March CPI inflation falls less than expected. Output price inflation has started to nudge higher, despite another decline in input prices. Together with yesterday’s higher than expected wage numbers, the data will add to the arguments of the hawks at the BoE, which remain very reluctant to contemplate rate cuts. Canada CPI rose 0.6% in March, double the 0.3% February increase BUT core eased. The doors are still open for a possible cut at the next BoC meeting on June 5. IMF revised up its global growth forecast for 2024 with inflation easing, in its new World Economic Outlook. This is consistent with a global soft landing, according to the report. Financial Markets Performance:   USDJPY also inched up to 154.67 on expectations the BoJ will remain accommodative and as the market challenges a perceived 155 red line for MoF intervention. USOIL prices slipped -0.15% to $84.20 per barrel. Gold rose 0.24% to $2389.11 per ounce, a new record closing high as geopolitical risks overshadowed the impacts of rising rates and the stronger dollar. Market Trends:   Wall Street waffled either side of unchanged on the day amid dimming rate cut potential, rising yields, and earnings. The major indexes closed mixed with the Dow up 0.17%, while the S&P500 and NASDAQ lost -0.21% and -0.12%, respectively. Asian stock markets mostly corrected again, with Japanese bourses underperforming and the Nikkei down -1.3%. Mainland China bourses were a notable exception and the CSI 300 rallied 1.4%, but the MSCI Asia Pacific index came close to erasing the gains for this year. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Andria Pichidi Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.vvvvvvv
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