[phantom]

Originally Posted by ricastein »

Hello Phantom. I'm interested, but I don't know what PM means. Also, I can understand your frustration. I've been following your posts from the beginning.

PM means "private message" and is found in your control panel.

[phantom]

Hi all...

The newsletter doesn't look feasible at this point. Since the idea of its inception was posted, there just hasn't been enough feedback to warrant the launch. This endeavor would be time consuming, to say the least, and the time/effort/energy is needed in other avenues of my life.

Still, just about everything you need to get profitable is in the thread. Sure, some of it is only a cursory look, but I'm pretty sure that anyone who rolls up the sleeves and goes to work to understand the principles I touched on here will be greatly rewarded.

Thank you to everyone who put their faith in me by personally responding. I'm sorry that I can't be of more help.


Have a good one,
Phantom

[macplauz]

Understandig price movement

Yesterday in the US session we had a strong resistance area on the 5min chart at about 1.2965 due to 61.80 % fib retracement of prior swing down, 61.80 % fib extension, 200 MA and prior consolidation + 20 MA resistance on the 1h chart.

On the 1 min chart we got further confirmation due to the ending diagonal pattern of wave C (upmove lost strength as it approached the resistance area + 61.80 % fib extension.)

In general the first step is to find strong resistance/support area and the second to observe price behaviour there for confirmation.

These kinds of chart analysis is what is working well in my opinion.

Best luck

Chart Analysis Forex (EUR/USD)

[phantom]

Originally Posted by macplauz »

Understandig price movement

Yesterday in the US session we had a strong resistance area on the 5min chart at about 1.2965 and prior due to 61.80 % fib retracement of prior swing down, 61.80 % fib extension, 200 MAconsolidation + 20 MA resistance on the 1h chart.

In general the first step is to find strong resistance/support area and the second to observe price behaviour there for confirmation.

Although I cannot disagree with you that looking for confirmation at the S/R zone is a solid business practice, I must disagree with you about the reasons why the market turned around at the 1.2985ish area following the rally between 15:20 and 19:00. The culmination of that rally had very little, if anything to do with a fib ratio or an extended pattern of an Elliott wave, or even a 1 hr chart 20 sma... The market reversed at that price level because it hit strong resistance from the prior consolidation's lower boundary. Old support became new resistance and the market could not sustain the rally. Tests of prior support/resistance are what the markets are all about. Try not to get too caught up with fib numbers and Elliott waves too much. If you develop the instinct to anticipate price reversals based on price rejection at prior support/resistance versus some mathematical projection, you'll do better in the long run, imho.

[shooly76]

thanks for all the great info and examples, phantom!

I was looking back on today's 10 min TF chart a few minutes ago, and I saw what looked like a nice price rejection trade.

what do you think, phantom?

[shooly76]

here is another example using phantom's methodology..

this is a consolidation breakout trade... (GC) COMEX GOLD 10 min chart..just made this sim trade for 29 ticks. sometimes gold has some nice moves after 7-8pm EST.

the red, full bodied bear candle was my signal.. because the price broke the small consolidation range, and then the preceeding bear hammer which CLOSED below the range was my trigger. I placed my target near a previous 'relative' low from the day session.

my risk was also completely taken out of this as well..I moved my stop to break even when I reached 15 ticks..however, this is subjective, and I have no set rules for moving my stop.

this could be a nice mini trend, so maybe tonite I will catch a retracement trade and then a continuation back down..

[shooly76]

I just hit for another 8 ticks on retracement..barely got in on time though because I was posting here..lol..lets see if it continues downward..

[shooly76]

just to be clear, when I set my target it wasnt really a relative low...it was near the SMA.. that price occurred around 2:30pm EST..but if the trend continues, which it is as of right now, new target would be at a relative low of the day session.

BTW..price is going back down, but I had walk dog, so I missed my entry..