[IFX Tatyana]

The Australian dollar, as it was expected, closed the gap zone. Now, I wait for the reach of the level of 0.8550, but I would like to warn you about possible correction to the level of 0.87 from the current prices.
Trading recommendations:
- a sharp rebound can be from the level of 0.8550, so after development of certain conditions it is probable to purchase.



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Originally Posted by TLadmin

Last edited by TLadmin; 06-21-2010 at 09:48 PM. Reason: spam URL removed

Just wondering, why my post was edited the way to imply I posted the spam and alegedlly implied Tatyana's analysis is not genuine?

[IFX Tatyana]

Earlier on a 4-hour timeframe the NZD/USD currency pair has formed Doji candle on upward trend. Favorable fact for downward motion is that this candle has developed around strong resistance level of 0.7160, where the bulls have not manage to fixate and the bears have started to increase their influence and a pullback took place.
In addition, NZD/USD broke out the support level of .6995. So, the current viewpoint is correct. The breach of this mark also led to the formation of “triple vertex”. Now it should be expected that the pair will be able to move downwards to the level of 0.6800, where Fibonacci correctional level of 61.8 and strong support level are also placed. If this level is broken through, NZD/USD will aim to next support level of 0.6572.
On the other hand, if the resistance level of 0.7160 is broken out short positions should be closed, as it will open the way to 0.7300.



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[IFX Tatyana]

According to wave count this currency pair is now standing in the beginning of a daily wave up. The targets of the uptrend are Fibonacci retracements of 0.8778-0.8314, 0.8861-0.8314.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.8588 = .50 retracement
- 0.8601 = .618 ret
- 0.8652 = .618 ret
- 0.8668 = .764 ret
In case the price keeps declining the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracement points of 0.8314-0.8556:
- 0.8435 = .50 ret
- 0.8406 = .618 ret
- 0.8371 = .764 ret

Overbought/Oversold
According to the Detrended Oscillator the market now looks oversold. Since the bigger wave is up it is possible in case of bottoming signals to initiate longs against nearest Fibonacci supports at 0.8464, 0.8435, and 0.8406.

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[IFX Tatyana]

Dear traders,

As for the EUR/JPY pair, we continue to observe development of the uprising cycle from July 1. For now, we do not see any initial conditions for a decreasing tendency; therefore, we consider downward motion as a correction. As for the GBP/JPY pair, we observed the long-term ascendant structure from May 20, 2010 and the local upward cycle from July 7. There are no initial conditions for descendant tendency as well.

In this analytical review, we will analyze the development of the structure for today for such pairs as EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Having read it, you should realize more clearly possible prospects of the currencies development. In my method, for a simpler representation I use the standard notions of the technical analysis, such as support and resistance levels, though the method itself is based on the properties of the fractal function and has a deep meaning of the current and the future situation understanding. All the calculations are made from the initial conditions of the cycle development. The direction of the price movement from the current initial conditions are shown with a black arrow line. The alternative movement is shown with a red arrow line, in case of breaking through the key levels for cancellation of the uprising or downfalling cycle. As a rule, the red line also indicates the correctional movement and a short-term exit through the level. Do not use only the images; study the text in order to understand the progress of the event.

Forecast for July 14:

For the EUR/JPY, the significant levels are: 116.41, 115.46, 115.08, 113.95, 113.49, 112.45, 112.08, 111.56, 110.70 and 110.24. Here, a brief ascendant motion is expected in the range of 113.95 – 113.49, the breach of the level of 113.95 will lead to an impulse, in this case the target is at 115.08, in the corridor of 115.08 – 115.46 is price consolidation. The potential value for the top is considered 116.41, after reaching of which a downward rollback is awaited. A correctional downward movement is possible in the diapason of 112.45 – 112.08, the breakout of the last reading will lead to a deeper motion, here the target is 111.56, from this level we await a key reversal upwards, the breach of it will influence negatively on the rising tendency development in H1 scale. The range of 110.70 – 110.24 is a key support for the high, before it we expect the formation of the initial conditions for downward cycle extending.

Trading recommendations:
Buy: 113.95 Take profit: 115.08
Buy: 115.50 Take profit: 116.41
Sell: 112.08 Take profit: 111.56


For the GBP/JPY pair the significant levels are: 138.79, 138.23, 137.11, 136.64, 135.71, 135.48, 134.06, 133.53 and 132.26. Here we are watching the long-term upward structure from May 20, 2010 and the local upward cycle from July 7. The further increasing movement is expected after the breakthrough of the level of 135.71, in this case the target is at 136.64, after reaching which a price consolidation due in the range of 136.64 – 137.11. In mid-term outlook, a potential value is 138.23, after hitting which a downward retracement and correction are expected. The diapason of 138.23 – 138.79 is noise. There are no any initial conditions for a falling motion for this pair. A correctional fall is probable between 134.43 – 134.06 levels, the breakout of the last reading will lead to a deeper motion, here the target is 133.53, from this level we await a key reversal upwards, the breach of it will influence negatively on the rising cycle development from July 7. The level of 132.26 is a key support for the high and interesting in mid-term outlook, before it we expect the formation of the initial conditions for downward cycle.

Trading recommendation:
Buy: 135.73 Take profit: 136.64
Buy: 137.11 Take profit: 138.23
Sell: 134.06 Take profit: 133.53

Please, note that making trading recommendations we take into account not all potential of the structure development, but only the major levels.


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[IFX Tatyana]

According to wave count this currency pair is now developing potential wave C of the intermediate uptrend. The wave will be confirmed if 0.8870 is broken to the upside. And it ends in case 0.8633 is broken to the downside. The price targets of the upside movement are Fibonacci expansions off 0.8314-0.8870-0.8633, 0.8633-0.8813-0,8712, 0,8712-0,8845-0,8801.
Price targets above the current level:
- 0.8883 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.8892 = objective point (OP)
- 0.8934 = OP
- 0.8977 = COP
- 0.9003 = expanded objective point (XOP)
In case the price reverses to the downside the nearest supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 0.8712.

Overbought/Oversold
The Detrended Oscillator is moving to the overbought area. Since the major trend is up, it's reasonable to wait for a tradable retracement some 40-50 pips below and calculate a corresponding Fib-node.

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[IFX Tatyana]

On a weekly chart, the AUD/USD currency pair has formed Bullish Engulfing candlestick combination, which is a signal for an upward movement.
The fact that this candlestick shaped after a rebound from the support level of 0.8080 as well as from Fibonacci correctional level of 38.2, where the bears did not managed to fixate and the bulls began to increase their influence, speaks in favor of a rising movement. This candlestick combination showed that the currency pair was falling after a failed trial to break out the resistance level of 0.9394. However, having come close to 0.8066 it reversed.
The fact that AUD/USD broke through 0.8855 successfully means that the current viewpoint is correct. Now, the rise to the resistance level of 0.9394 should be expected.
On the other hand, long positions are better to close after the breach of the support level of 0.8312, as it will open the way to 0.8066 (the low of 2010).



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[IFX Tatyana]

The US stocks on Tuesday fell amid disappointing financial reports of companies and more weak-than-expected US economic statistics, which strengthened investors’ worries about the stability of the recovery. Dow Jones Industrial Average according to the trading results dropped by 38 points, or by 0.36%, to 10636.38, having demonstrated the fourth decline during the last five sessions. Nasdaq Composite index edged down by 11.84 points, or by 0.52%, to 2283.52. Standard & Poor’s 500 index decreased by 5.40 points, or by 0.48%, to 1120.46. At the same time, the industrial companies’ shares were leading in the slump. The worst result was shown by Procter & Gamble shares, which fell by $2.12, or by 3.4%, to $59.94. The Company’s sales rose by almost 5% in Q4, as it more intensively promoted its retail chains, but the decline darkened the results and sales increased less-than-forecasted.
Home Depot shares decreased by 67 cents, or by 2.3%, to $28.45 because of disappointing data in the consumer and housing sectors. The reports showed that consumer spending and earning did not change, while Pending Home Sales index moved down. Nevertheless, Pfizer stocks climbed by 86 cents, or by 5.6%, to $16.34. Pfizer Inc. revenue in Q2 gained 9.5% and revised results shifted the expectations of analysts. The profit growth was positively affected by the purchase of Wyeth pharmaceutical company and the increase of major medicine sales. Dow Chemical stocks went down by $2.83, or by 10%, to $25.50. Dow Chemical profit boosted less-than-expected.
Except the weak data in the housing and consumer sectors, more-than-expected fall in the US industrial orders exerted pressure on stocks on Tuesday, which pointed out the weakness of the industrial sector day after more positive than forecasted statistics on the industrial sector had increased the market participants’ sentiment.




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