[mitsubishi]

Originally Posted by DbPhoenix »

I wouldn't quit, but I would acknowledge that your lines can't be drawn except in hindsight. Perhaps if you were to go back a week or two or three and demonstrate how these lines would have told you where to short this morning. And if these lines depend on highs and lows, I suggest that ignoring the overnite may not be the best route.

While i remember, we have a gap on cash at 919.1-923.2 may 29th- june 1st which seems feasable today.What would you say if we hit the projected 916 today, beginners luck? I am not intending to project lines far into the future in order to predict the price of wheat at $1.20 a la Gann. It's futile i know, i tried it 3 years ago ,so i have an idea what i'm up against. I also know that experienced traders have an inbuilt resistance to anything that attempts to predict the future (with solid gold reasons) I feel i can make money ok nowadays and am pursuing this experiment for my own and hopefully others' amusement.But occasionally something emerges from these indulgences and i thought by sharing,the likelyhood of something emerging increases....

[mitsubishi]

Originally Posted by atto »

Perhaps you should catch up on sleep? You'll probably be able to think clearer.

Getting past the fact that the "projections" would have you shorting at almost every new high (which there are many), and longing almost every new low (same), price doesn't move in bars, it flows. Your "projection" is very different if I display price in a different way (say, more spacing between the bars, or a different time frame).

Fair comment which is why i prefer line charts as price appears to flow naturally.Actually i am always at my most creative when lacking sleep,i think it produces a similar state to mild drugs like cannabis of which i was a heavy indulger a few years back .Smoked it daily for 23 years,stopped one day never thought about it a week later never touched it since.Stopped partying and started studying markets and now i'm addicted
Bear in mind that i am only interested in the usual price levels we all are watching but am attempting to nail them at their likely reversal points or use them as possible 'time targets'.This is an old idea which i am attempting to update and personalise.I am not a scalper, i swing trade intraday/several days and occasionaly scalp to adjust my existing positions more than for the scalps sake.

[mitsubishi]

12.30 For me this is usually a likely reversal zone but not today.I have been waiting for the market to unwind a touch and would not consider the long side for a reaction play unless we close at or near the low tonite and i would look for a follow thru early lower low tues. To me that is the least risk long play and i'm a great believer in letting the market come to you and attempt to enter/exit on favourable terms.I never chase.As i said,if you know where the market has been you only need to meet it at it's next destination.Either that or it will retest your missed entry anyway.No great insight here simple pain of losing money teaches the essential lessons or you're out of the game.You guys know exactly what i am saying,the newbies will disagree and want to 'video game the market' enough said on that.
If this gap we are close to gets closed 919-23 the strength/weakness of the bounce will be the next clue to the markets next destination so no action /decision required 'til then..Might as well stay awake for now though have an early night get up early tommorrow
I realise the more i tell you about my trading style and what i am attempting the better imput i will get here so excuse me for blabbing on.Trading is an art and a science and money management is crucial , patience and discipline IS rewarded for those prepared to do the work; just dont keep making the same mistakes and expect a different result.
I am sometimes suprised by how many bits and pieces i still use in my trading and by how much stuff i dumped and yet to me it feels very simple and clean which tends to relax you. If your're stressed you are trading too big or being too greedy imo.Along the way i despaired of ever cracking this thing but it's like other things in life,you gradually realise what is required and it will be personal to you, your own little niche that you trust. But it isn't easy to get there but it is simple... we are planning our entry and aiming at a specific target and exiting if it gets there/goes wrong and focussing on risk control.It is no more complex than that but the path to that state of affairs can be... challenging and you will find things out about yourself.
Now i think i said enough and will stick to business from here on and i wish you good trading and to the newbies don't give up,you might be closer to success than you think.(just be sure you want this for the right reasons,i would paper trade if i had no money i honestly like it that much)

[mitsubishi]

1.35pm we are within 1/2 point of closing the gap so it should get interesting here.I still feel this is a weak straight down day but this is an obvious buy zone for some traders and maybe get out breakeven for some others (forced buyers) My next reversal zone is 2.30 pm so if the market heads up towards there that's a possible short. I have unloaded some of my position at this obvious target but expecting more downside this week. I got out just before we close the gap because you always get early buyers fearing they will miss the entry and any prev underwater traders will be glad to get out with a small loss (they will tell you the market is mean reverting and it's true most of the time!)

[DbPhoenix]

Originally Posted by mitsubishi »

While i remember, we have a gap on cash at 919.1-923.2 may 29th- june 1st which seems feasable today.What would you say if we hit the projected 916 today, beginners luck?

No, I hope it shows a basic understanding of the nature of support and resistance. However, unless your angles somehow led you to anticipate 916+/- (keeping the RO adjustment in mind) as a turning point, I'm afraid the point of them escapes me.

But, if you see something here, by all means pursue it.

[mitsubishi]

As blowfish rightly pointed out,to do this in a conventional way one should square price and time,but that would mean hand drawing charts which i can't post or knocking something up in paint (which i want to avoid- we'll see)
anyway,since we have extended the recent range my original charts of course, have become rescaled.But since i don't intend to project lines from the left too far back,so far this does not appear to be a problem as the 2 charts below show (original projection and result)
Bear in mind the comments i made about how the day might turn out and also the price targets: 926 919.1-923.2 (gap fill) 916 (if we closed at the low or possibly hit tomorrow) I said it would be weak all day,that i would not contemplate any long reaction trades because we are breaking out of a range with momentum)
l also mentioned that price often reverses in the following timezones 10.30 12.30 2.30 (maybe because these are the 1st 3rd and 5th hours and 1 3 5 are fib numbers). But whatever the reason,it happens enough times for me to watch these areas.However,sometimes these zones shift and this experiment is designed to maybe give a heads up on that. Today is a great example since the low was made at 1.30 and was on the projected line from fridays high and also in the correct price area (remember i took profit right there so that was an exit target rather than a long play reversal) And so i feel justified in continuing.
Now i know you might say well you coulda done that without the projected line.But i would point out that i didn't exit at the 926 1st target (an 11 point profit for me) because there was no projected line connection in the area that 926 traded in. Does this start to make sense to anyone at all? My actual exit meant i netted another 6 points,giving nothing back to the market attempting a reaction play,partly based on the days trading conditions and partly because i dont have a new projection yet.

[BlowFish]

Just a couple of things. You can turn off autoscale on most charting packages and set up the X scale 'by eye'. So for example you could always have 120 points and a half screen. Ensign allows you to set things up properly btw.

[mitsubishi]

Todays projection so far I would take 934/5 short without hesitation 928/9 is also valid as it is R-10 from yesterdays low