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Old 06-15-2009, 10:48 AM   #9

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

[QUOTE=BlowFish;67914]For this to make sense one would need properly (fixed) scaled charts right? What Gann aficionado might call squaring price and time?[/QUOTE

Yes,in the past i would do this by hand but it is tedious so i have tried it this way to see what happens. When i squared price and time on graph paper it was as frank said 1 point per 1/2 hour which i got by luck more than design.then i found that all the highs and lows could be connected by 45 deg angles based on the horizontal

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Old 06-15-2009, 10:59 AM   #10

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

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Originally Posted by UrmaBlume »
Frank,

I believe that the 90 degree angle the OP refers to is off the line from the open to the low and not the horizontal.

If the original reference line is always from the open to the low then the initial projection line will always be up as, unless the open = low, the first line will slope down and a right angle to that is always going to be up.

I must have missed something.
I should make something clear here first.Dont get hung up on the open or any ohlc point now because i have reversed engineered the chart so the geometry looks right (to me) hoping for the result which i got.You will notice that the second chart i posted in answer to frank has a 45 deg based on the horizontal and you can see that it only connects 2 target data points and would not work like that for the others.So my conclusion is my original plan should be persued since it looks right and works.
So going forward i would connect todays ohlc points and project forward as before or /and connect to the first chart and see what we get.Anyway we will see what i get end of play unless i spot something before session ends.
Thanks for all the initial interest guys keep it coming
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Old 06-15-2009, 11:24 AM   #11

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

We are approaching downside target of 926,last weeks low next target is 916 then 912 elliott wave support. At this point in time 928.8, the 935 support (ew) is a potential resistance level (my swing short position has been waiting for today so i can let it ride and work on this new project today)

Target hit and breached 823.8. This is a known reversal area here 10.30am A bounce to 935/6 would be a safe short especially at 12.30 or 2.30pm

10.47am this looks to me like a straight down day today really heavy selling pressure breaking out of that rangebound market last week would not want to be a buyer today.We could end on the low and make an early lower low on tuesday-that would be a sensible buy point

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Old 06-15-2009, 11:25 AM   #12

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

Quote:
Originally Posted by mitsubishi »
I should make something clear here first.Dont get hung up on the open or any ohlc point now because i have reversed engineered the chart so the geometry looks right (to me) hoping for the result which i got.
And that's the problem. You don't know that Monday's low is the low until the day is over. Ditto with the high. And the only way your line can connect to a reversal point is to wait until Wednesday. If you tried to do so in the interim, you'd have multiple "higher highs", any one of which would seem in real time to be a legitimate short. Ditto with the "lower lows" on the way to Wednesday's low of the day. Then of course none of these angles are 90 degree angles. So how does this help find reversal points except after the fact?
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Old 06-15-2009, 12:33 PM   #13

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

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And that's the problem. You don't know that Monday's low is the low until the day is over. Ditto with the high. And the only way your line can connect to a reversal point is to wait until Wednesday. If you tried to do so in the interim, you'd have multiple "higher highs", any one of which would seem in real time to be a legitimate short. Ditto with the "lower lows" on the way to Wednesday's low of the day. Then of course none of these angles are 90 degree angles. So how does this help find reversal points except after the fact?
Thanks for joining in db your input is welcome as well.I hear you.This is what i am trying to figure out. whether it is possible to utilize other techniques to make a more predictive model.I know in hindsite it looks credible but there's all kinds of problems but should i quit before i even get started?! I got some ideas in the pipeline but dont want info overload this thread too quickly....how about indulging me? but be as critical as you like it might help me;that's the idea First rough chart today:
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Old 06-15-2009, 12:41 PM   #14

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

Also, many of those higher highs/lows you mention i will be able to eliminate on the basis that they dont line up with existing projected lines and/or they are not in a usual reversal zone and/or they are not the level at which price is likely to reverse.This is not intended as a stand alone geometry exercise by a long way.I will still have to make similar calls to yourself as to entry/exit based on everything i know plus instinct
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Old 06-15-2009, 12:47 PM   #15

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

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Originally Posted by mitsubishi »
Thanks for joining in db your input is welcome as well.I hear you.This is what i am trying to figure out. whether it is possible to utilize other techniques to make a more predictive model.I know in hindsite it looks credible but there's all kinds of problems but should i quit before i even get started?! I got some ideas in the pipeline but dont want info overload this thread too quickly....how about indulging me? but be as critical as you like it might help me;that's the idea First rough chart today:
I wouldn't quit, but I would acknowledge that your lines can't be drawn except in hindsight. Perhaps if you were to go back a week or two or three and demonstrate how these lines would have told you where to short this morning. And if these lines depend on highs and lows, I suggest that ignoring the overnite may not be the best route.
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Old 06-15-2009, 12:47 PM   #16

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Re: New Frontiers in Technical Analysis

Perhaps you should catch up on sleep? You'll probably be able to think clearer.

Getting past the fact that the "projections" would have you shorting at almost every new high (which there are many), and longing almost every new low (same), price doesn't move in bars, it flows. Your "projection" is very different if I display price in a different way (say, more spacing between the bars, or a different time frame).
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