[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by Frank »

Actually, I am on vacation this week and was just looking at the chart after a day at the beach --- I will be the first to tell you that after the fact analysis is always easy compared to real-time trading. I am not saying this is so obvious and that I would have caught an entry even if I had been focused today as I may not have -- but one thing I can say is that I would have been 'looking' on short-side given this price action.

Hi Frank,

I agree completely about after the fact chart reading. I did not trade the ES today (I am primarily a stock trader with the occassional futures trade thrown in for the sport of it). But I do watch the ES, and I have included today's 5 minute ES with short entries (blue lines with arrows) and exit (thicker red hashed line) marked.

This is what I meant in my original question. Where would you have entered today, had you been trading, and had you traded it as you would like to think you would have given what you se on the chart tonight. For example, first sell stop would have been 919, second short entry at 916.50, and 3rd entry at 915. Exit would have been trailing stop at 910.50 (again, I grant that this is a fair bit of "monday morning quarterbacking").

I try not to go into the day with a bias one way or the other, but just let price go where its wants to go. Once that 919.25 gave way I did start looking for short trades more than long trades, and once 916.75 (the prior low) gave way, I could then be said to have had a "short bias."

I am very curious as to how you make entry and exit decisions based upon the indicators you are looking at. From your response, I suspect you are relying more on price itself and less on those indicators than one might presume from your detailed descriptions of how you use them.

Thank you,

Thales

[BlowFish]

Quick question TT. Those first two sells Are into yesterdays low and what might be considered support (dotted red line). Would that be your initial target? Maybe with an exit there and re-entry when it broke. Or conversely where you bearish anyway?

[Frank]

before it took out he previous days low (PDL), the day was an inside day. inside days are rare, occuring on ~10% of all days so I would think of the previous low as a baseline objective to violate (a directional target) more than 'support'...

one other thing to TT, I have spent time with various breakout type of price triggers based on volatility increasing. here is one example -- there is no magic here -- you are trying to get the bigger idea right and all these trigger prices may or may not look so good in retrospect --- expect any indicator on this lower timeframe to work sometimes and not others. its up to the trader to try to come up with a trigger price and manage the position based on subsesquent action. you can stagger price triggers based on diff't measures as well or vary size based on confidence in the set-up.

here is a chart using the midpoint of the 7- high low channel and +/- 3 pts vs that midpoint. price that forms 'the channel pattern' and then shows a bit of a volatility breakout means ADX might be ready to rise. again, there is no magic here, you are just trying to find a price that makes sense to manage from....

[thalestrader]

Originally Posted by BlowFish »

Quick question TT. Those first two sells Are into yesterdays low and what might be considered support (dotted red line). Would that be your initial target? Maybe with an exit there and re-entry when it broke. Or conversely where you bearish anyway?

Price had five tries at pushing above the 924 high on the five minute chart. I then expected that a retest and possible break of the opening range low 919.25, with the expectation that that would lead to a retest of the prior day's low.

You are correct, that low would have been a target. I do not typically trade with targets, so rather than limit out, I would have watched for signs that price was going to find support and raly from the prior low before I'd exit the trade.

Unlike the 6B example where you asked about the double top, there was sufficient price distance between the first trade here on the ES and the prior low to warrant a trade (after all, I see a bunch of folks here on TL and elsewhere who are happy to take a tick or two or three, let alone three or four whole ES points!).

The second short entry is cutting it close, but still enough room on the ES to warrant me taking that trade (remember, you can always get out at the market with the click of one button).

I try not to be bearish or bullish per se. I would have been a buyer of a break above 924, and my target would have been the prior day's high. I would not have had a take profit limit there either, but I would have been watchful for signs that price was going to reverse or push through that resistance.

Best Wishes,

Thales

PS I do not have trading rules, but I do have what you might call guidelines. For every time I trade in accordance with all my guidelines I could find another trade where I disregarded one or more.

[Minetoo]

posted on incorrect thread

[minoo]

Seminar Title: Using ADX to Trade Breakouts, Pullbacks, and Reversals
Below is a link to recorded seminar at CMEGroup site on ADX by Dr Charles Schaap
Using ADX to Trade Breakouts, Pullbacks, and Reversals (CBOT Archive)

This is a long 135 minutes seminar which you can save (File > Save As), bit old style but real wealth of useful material for trading
I was able to locate the slides & have uploaded them here, so look through the topics in it first if they are of interest to yourself

The seminar meticuosly goes through many aspect of trading including Trade management, trendlines, Price & DMI pivots, MAs, range, trend, accumulation, divergence, exhaustion, Continuation Signal, ..., etc etc.


Dr Schaap uses the setting of (8, 13) on AdXlength and DMI respectively

I have attached my chart of ADX (as Histo) and DMI lines on weekly Nasdaq 100 Index

Enjoy Minoo