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Old 03-17-2009, 08:41 PM   #1

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Statistics

Ray and James were recently discussing time and price windows, http://tradingsuccess.com/blog/cycle...sp-ii-873.html

Ray calculates the price and time changes of impulsive and corrective swings and uses these stats to:
  1. estimate where a correction might end
  2. determine how overbought or oversold a move is

I have a couple of questions on how to distinguish between impulsive and corrective swings. In the first attachment are Barros swings of the SP500. The blue lines are the 5d and and green ones are the next higher time frame, the 18d. If we are calculating the stats for the 5d then the impulsive waves are in the direction of the 18d line and the corrective waves are counter to it. There are a couple of exceptions. If the 5d line is totally covered by the 18d line (7-8) then that line is excluded because it is a higher time frame swing. The second chart has the second exception. If a swing in the direction of the higher time frame line is followed by acceptance back beyond the top or bottom 1/8th of the prior swing extreme, then the swing is counted as corrective, even though it's in the direction of the trend. Swing CD is corrective.

I'm not sure about about GH because it's a small swing that fits the above corrective criteria. Are the last swings always impulsive?

And in the 3rd attachment is AA-BB impulsive? There's a large retracement and it is part of a 5d range. Thanks.
Attached Thumbnails
Statistics-swings1.png   Statistics-swings2.png   Statistics-swings3.png  
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Old 05-09-2009, 01:27 AM   #2

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Re: Statistics

Hi Gassah,
i am quite new to barros method but it seems to me that AA-BB is impulsive of Subnormal Type (R0 move).


BR

Michele
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Old 05-09-2009, 09:10 AM   #3

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Re: Statistics

Quote:
Originally Posted by miriccar »
it seems to me that AA-BB is impulsive of Subnormal Type (R0 move).

Michele
Thanks, Michele. I've had many questions answered by the second webinar and see it the way you do.

Rob
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Old 06-06-2009, 01:50 PM   #4

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Re: Statistics

how can i learn this strategy?
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Old 06-06-2009, 02:31 PM   #5

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Re: Statistics

Ray Barros Successful Trading Concept
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Old 06-06-2009, 03:22 PM   #6

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Re: Statistics

NTES demonstrates the use of the time-price window (TPW). For those not familiar with the TPW it involves calculating the percentage change of prior swings and the number of bars for each of the swings. The goal is to estimate where a reaction will end and it utilizes the security's own history instead of some generic means such as the 50% retracement. It then narrows the window down to encompass approximately 70% of the values. In NTES's case the window ranges from 7-17% and 3-9 days.

It hits a MIDAS and then moves up with conviction allowing for an entry.

Rob
Attached Thumbnails
Statistics-ntes.png   Statistics-ntes-midas.png  
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Old 06-06-2009, 07:31 PM   #7

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Re: Statistics

Attached are 5d TPWs for some of the stocks I'm following. It seems quite robust but it's a lot of work and very few will have the time or desire to do it.

Rob
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Statistics-rimm.png   Statistics-aapl.png   Statistics-bidu.png   Statistics-pbr.png   Statistics-snda.png  

Statistics-asia.png  
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Old 06-15-2009, 12:54 PM   #8

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Re: Statistics

Hi gassah,
i would like to know your opinion in UUP chart.
Does it seem to you a Tree Drives to Bottom or a normal R0?
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