[waveslider]

It's just about there. This is a MONTHLY chart.

I'm not calling a bottom here, in fact it could bounce around this area for quite some time.

Then again it could hammer out of here.

Tough market, I can't bear to hold a short overnight. Longs all fail. Its intraday and that's it

[Tasuki]

Originally Posted by waveslider »

It's just about there. This is a MONTHLY chart.

I'm not calling a bottom here, in fact it could bounce around this area for quite some time.

Then again it could hammer out of here.

Tough market, I can't bear to hold a short overnight. Longs all fail. Its intraday and that's it

Criminy, Waveslider, that's about as clean a pitchfork as you could hope to find. If it don't bouce here, I'm calling Tim Morge!

[Kiwi]

Remember that Tim says of the mid line --- 80% chance of reaching it. Its not really a bounce target ... just as likely to slide down it for a bit and maybe continue. Although things are feeling pretty extended today.

Aussie AORD closed the day at -7.14% and the week at -14.2%

[Tasuki]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

Remember that Tim says of the mid line --- 80% chance of reaching it. Its not really a bounce target ... just as likely to slide down it for a bit and maybe continue. Although things are feeling pretty extended today.

Aussie AORD closed the day at -7.14% and the week at -14.2%

Thanks for the reminder, Kiwi. Putting on my thinking cap (fuzzy and mouse-infested from disuse) I seem to recall now that Morge, Andrews et al only give one percentage that they call reliable, and that's the 80% rule that you mentioned.

After price has hit that medianline, it's anybody's damn guess as to where price will go. It may bounce, or it may zoom through. If it does bouce off the medianline, however, there is a reasonable chance (no percentage given that I recall) that price will hit the upper parallel from whence it came.

By contrast, if price zooms through the medianline, it's expected (with some probability) to reach the further sliding parallel.We'd better hope that doesn't happen this time!

[OAC]

Originally Posted by Kiwi »

Remember that Tim says of the mid line --- 80% chance of reaching it. Its not really a bounce target ... just as likely to slide down it for a bit and maybe continue. Although things are feeling pretty extended today.

I think Andrew said there is a 80% chance of reaching the median line, if I remember correctly. But Tim did say that a Median Line of a positive slope has a much better chance of stopping downward movement than one with a negative slope.

[BlowFish]

I hope it dosen't develop into a 'zoom and retest'. Also while it looks clean it is a completely unproven fork, the 3 anchor points are the only place so far there has been any interaction. Final thing (and one of the intricacies of pitchforks) is that there may be an argument to slightly shift the 2nd point a couple of bars either way as there where a few tails own there of course that will slightly change the slope.

It will be intesting to see how things develop (over the months!!!)

[waveslider]

Blowfish's point is very valid that this is an unproven fork. Still, it is what it is - mechanically this is the target for the move. Sliding along lower is common, and the forks can become a trend channel - all valid points.

I really hate trying to call bottoms, but here is another interesting chart using gap analysis.

The gap at the 50% mark created the target of the current low in place. I think its likely that this is a short term low. Not to say it won't be lower in a month.

[spqr25]

Some months have passed and Waveslider's pitchfork did stop the downmove (at least for now). But the Schiff version of the pitchfork did an even better job, and if I remember correctly this is precisely what Mr Schiff designed it for. He wanted an instrument that would tell him when a parabolic move was going to be over (this is in one of Tim's videos).