| Technical Analysis The technical discussion forum for traders. |
| View Poll Results: Do you pay attention to fundamentals? | |||
| Yes | | 7 | 19.44% |
| No | | 22 | 61.11% |
| Only for longer term trading | | 7 | 19.44% |
| Voters: 36. You may not vote on this poll | |||
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| | #57 | ||
![]() | Re: All You Need... is a Chart You can download a free demo here: https://www.openecry.com/software/download1.cfm | ||
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| | #58 | ||
![]() | Re: All You Need... is a Chart Quote:
Hello TJ, I've been using http://www.quotetracker.com with Interactive Brokers. QT is free with a limit of 2 days history or $5 a month with 10 days history. I also use them for these videos for TradersAudio.com; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uodKTWWmIs0 | ||
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| | #59 | ||
![]() Join Date: May 2008 Location: Belgium Posts: 1,453 Thanks: 597
Thanked 326 Times in 169 Posts
Blog Entries: 60 | Interesting post Great post from Steenbarger in his blog: "Markets that cannot rise on good news and that cannot drop on bad news provide useful information for active traders. It's not the news itself, but the market's response to the news that is most important to track. " | ||
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| | #60 | ||
![]() | Re: All You Need... is a Chart Figures are not as simple as the EBC cuts rates, so bonds go up etc. You need to understand your market and it's relationships, and what is priced into the market (so what is expected). For example if you're trading fixed incomes, the schatz may be more likely to react more violently to a rate than say the bund because of the 2yr life compared to 10yr. Or for example comments concerning inflation that indicated more room for rate cuts can cause the market to go bid. But as i stated you need to be aware of what is expected and priced in, and how the market will react in ever sanario, so you know exactly what to do whatever the the outcome of the figure being realeased. To give you an example of what i mean, on the 4th of dec 2008 we had some of my fav figures out. We had riksbank rate decision, eurozone gdp q/q and y/y, bank of england rate decision, ecb rate decision, initial jobless claims and trichets press conference.... Riksbank banks previous rate was 3.75% and the market was expecting a cut to 2.75%, so a 100bp cut was priced into the market as this was what the market was expecting ECB previous was 3.25% and a cut to 2.75% was expected, so a 50bp cut was priced into the market.... Sitting there thinking a rate cut is gonna move the market isn't gonna get you anywhere because this is priced into the market, every man and his dog is expecting a rate cut, the value and opportunity comes in when the figures are out of line. So think about it... for example the ECB cuts 50bps the market is gonna do jack because everyone is expecting that.... but what happens if they cut 150bp's? Thats when you trade figures and make a heck of alot of money in a few seconds and leave work early because you know you've got an extra 250k-500k coming in at the end of the month. | ||
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| | #61 | ||
![]() Join Date: May 2008 Location: Belgium Posts: 1,453 Thanks: 597
Thanked 326 Times in 169 Posts
Blog Entries: 60 | Re: All You Need... is a Chart Quote:
Wasp knows next to nothing about any news, atto doesn't follow news at all, and if you read this thread you'll know where I stand. I have yet to see any of the fundamentalists around this forum put on a trade in real time, without the usual mumbo-jumbo and with some solid straightforward reasoning behind it. Quote:
Next week brings a load of interesting numbers, so I'd say give it your best shot Happy NY.
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| | #62 | ||
![]() ![]() Join Date: Feb 2008 Location: USA Posts: 1,797 Thanks: 329
Thanked 3,475 Times in 830 Posts
Blog Entries: 31 | Re: All You Need... is a Chart Quote:
Either way, it's all in the chart, so why bother? | ||
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| | #63 | ||
![]() | Re: All You Need... is a Chart Quote:
Without coming across like i'm putting myself on a pedestal, or knocking the fourm (because i'm not at all), when you say about people providing a valid argument or doing live trades, you have to remember where you're discussing this. The majority of people on these forums don't know what they're doing... fact... and i would say out of everyone registered to this forum, i'd put my money on less than 1% are actually professional traders, or people who make a full time living out of this. How many professional traders are gonna be posting on internet forum during market hours? Also for these types of trades that i mentioned above, it's impossible to show on a forum live, because by nature they tend to be either a massive spike that retraces just as fast, or market direction will change very rapidly leaving the trader who uses just a bar chart behind, and if you didn't know that there was a figure out, how are you gonna explain, let alone trade these moves? I never said you couldn't trade without fundamentals, i said you would only go so far. If you have two traders trading a fixed size of say 50lots, one who uses just a bar chart and one who uses a bar chart but can properly apply fundementals to their trading and play the figures, the latter would wipe the floor with the first one. There are facts that you have to accept, like when it rains people get wet... Professional traders are at the front of the information curve ... FACT, prop firms, investment banks etc all spend a vast amout of money on having the fastest most up to date information, that is far out of reach of non professional traders, unless they already know about this stuff and they happpen to already be wealthy and can afford the means before they start their trading journey.... FACT. Waiting for the figure/data to come out on bloomberg/cnbc on sky or cable TV, or internet forums doesn't put you anywhere near the front of the information curve I've attached a screen of what these typical moves look like. It's a 5min Bund chart and is highlighted in a red circle. Professional traders are in and out of trades like that while 99.9% of people are sat looking at their bar charts covered in indicators wondering what the hell just happened. FACT - this is what i do for a living Don't judge the skill of trader on just how much they make. If someone has a candle stick pattern that gives them 2 ticks a day, and thats all they know, all they have to do increase their size acording to their account size and they'll make a lot a money. Doesn't mean that they understand whats going on tho. Earning a couple of million a year doesn't mean you're anyone in this game, all of my colleagues earn more than a couple million a year but in the grand scheme of things they're nobodies... i'm nobody. Don't put yourself in a box and say all i need is a bar chart, because you need everything that is gonna give you an edge in this game. Heck, when i was prop trading they used to send us to a sport psychologists every now and then to try and help us find a mental edge (they always used to tell me that i shouldn't have black charts because they make you trade angry lol). When people get involved with trading they seem to get so hung up on the concept that there's a 'system' out there thats gonna give them exact entries, and all they need is one method. Not as simple as that i'm afriad. A professional trader could give the techinical methods they use to trade to anyone here and the majority will still lose money - i've seen it many times. You need to accept that it is what it is. Professional trading and sitting at home spread betting or trading retail are competely different worlds. Fundementals play a huge role in the financial markets. Tell me this, if you're trading the fixed income markets and want to trade a calander spread that gives you a synthetic position with lower risk and margin, how are you going to do it without fundementals? Or how are you going to do a butterfly trade? These methods are lower risk and have high profit potential compared to trading outrights. Like i say tell me how you would do this with no fundementals, i really am intreeged... As i said before, i'm not knocking anyone or the forum (i like the forum or else i wouldn't post on it when i get time). People need to accept what is and remember where they stand in the grand scheme of things. There was a time when i used to think all i needed was a chart, but when i first started prop trading my mentor said to me 'the stuff you're not interested in learning is the stuff you need to learn most of all' - it was when i fully took that on board and took the apporpiate steps, that i started really going somewhere. | ||
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| The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to 86834 For This Useful Post: | ||
| | #64 | ||
![]() Join Date: Mar 2008 Location: USA Posts: 401 Thanks: 112
Thanked 343 Times in 120 Posts
Blog Entries: 2 | Re: All You Need... is a Chart I personally use zero fundamentals in my day trading (I trade index futures), but I certainly wouldn't knock anyone who does. And no, I don't scalp for two ticks, spread bet, or anything like that. I don't think I'm boxing myself in by limiting myself to the tools I choose, but I could be mistaken. However, it seems to be working fairly decently (to say the least). Your differing opinions are interesting, though. And I'll let you guys continue... | ||
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