[phoenix01]

Hi,

I was wondering if anyone had any suggestions/tips for trading pullbacks intraday on the ES or any market really. Are there any types of price action/indicators/nuance which can help you avoid false pullbacks or confirm ones which are likely to continue in the direction.

So far i have found nothing, most indicators don't seem to have any edge. You end up missing to many good pullbacks to avoid that single failure. Analysing volume in theory makes since because of the nature of pullbacks but in practice i havnt seen anything that works. Ive only come to find a few nuances that are general rules of thumb because I've been watching them for so long.

Trading pullbacks is a popular strategy so it would be good to hear some suggestions.

Thanks

[jpennybags]

A link to a well presented and simple trading strategy utilizing range bars and entries on pullbacks.

http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...ng-trader.html

[SIUYA]

a lot will depend on what you are trying to pull out of the market. As first you need to know why you are trying to trade the pull back.....
largely as one persons pullback is an other persons break out.

Trading pullbacks in an established trend is clearly of a higher probability trade that the trend will continue - the nature of a trend, but the problem is that of measuring the pullback. So what is the context of why you are trying to trade a pullback.

there is only one thing for certain......if you wait for a pullback you will capture every loss when that pullback fails, and yet you will miss some of the winners as the pullback does not pullback far enough, or never comes. Its a trade off.

[MightyMouse]

You have to get "good at" distinguishing whether the market is ranging or trending in the time frame you are trading.

You'll get killed if you try to trend trade a range or range trade a trend.

[iris_ta]

eminiaddict.com teaches a 50% retarcement startegy. The web site includes webinars, written matreial, trading room, etc. I think he is very good, but keep in mind that like any other trading method, also this one requires putting a lot of effort.

[jtrader500]

Everything else aside, a bare bones approach to tilting the odds slightly in your favor on determining is this is a pullback. Look at the cumulative delta off of a one min chart.

You will be amazed how much more confident you will be buying pullbacks. Cumu delta measures the differential in "market orders" at each price.
Just study it and you will see which side wants it more...
Good luck
"if you have thought about it, I have tried it"

[4EverMaAT]

1) use a basket of trades when you enter. Use the spreadsheet to work out the opportunity costs from initial entry. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/for...tml#post132513

2) get in late in the mini trend. This maximizes your chance for a pullback. Lookout for a custom indicator soon that can be used to help isolate these movements very soon.

[sr100m]

for long trades (shorts are opposite)
if close of most recent bar is in 50-76.4% retrace of most recent swing (use zig zag to define swing)
and close of this bar bar is above open (for long - below open for short)
and the reward to risk ratio is more than a 3:1 (see below)

then place stop market order 1 tick above the most recently closed bar (for long - 1 t below for short)
and place stop loss 1 tick below the low of the lowest bar of the retrace

when price hits 161.8 extension take profit OR trail on low of bars OR use atr trail or whatever

for reward:risk ratio calculation -
distance between initial stop loss and entry is risk
distance between entry and 161.8 ext is reward.

it's based on EW (trying to catch wave 3). In theory win ratio is 30-40% which with a 3:1 av W: av L gives a positive expectancy.

like much intraday trading it is tricky to trade as a lot of decisions have to made fast and you will get slipped - especially on the trades that are going to work out. i'm trying to automate it.

can use 61.8 instead of 76.4 if you want in the retrace - just be consistent.