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Old 09-16-2011, 10:59 PM   #1

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Beyond Gann

How many of you have studied Gann and concluded he was either a conman or that he didn't tell us everything.?
Did you leave it at that and move on,or are you like me,fascinated with the idea that the future may be predictable ?
Well,since Gann is beyond me (for whatever reason) i'm going to turn the tables on him and go BEYOND GANN

Now,it is important to emphasize that you don't need to predict the future to succeed in trading,but it is interesting to test the limits of what is possible.And it is not beyond the realms of imagination to believe that some super computor in the future could do that since the market is traded by humans,and human behaviour is predictable.
For very short term predictions that is already possible.For example,anyone who is a competant trader can recognize a gap up and go day and therefore predict,correctly that the market will close up today.The earlier you can see that,the better,but on such a day you can safely ignore the trading mantra never chase the market,since it's impossible to lose money going long on such a day - and yet many will anyway
Many of you will know what a typical FOMC trading day looks like.Somewhere on this site
i posted a hand drawn chart of what i thought the next FOMC day would look like-turned out to be almost a carbon copy.I'm no genius,just seen it enough times before like many of you no doubt.
So maybe the future can be predictable.I bet most of you married folk find your partner pretty damn predictable!

BACK TO GANN
This latest stuff i'm working on came about after studying the square of nine.
First problem was there are various versions floating around.I've seen them with the numbers in different places,running clockwise in some,anti clockwise in others,with the angles marked in different places.. then there is the hexagon,apparently,accord ing to some,more applicable to trading the s&p500.
I've never been comfortable with lifting somebody elses' stuff wholesale anyway.I was just looking for inspiration.
I have found though that as a square root calculator it does predict future price levels but i haven't found that it matches the predicted angles beyond the first 3 and also a full cycle (360 deg). ie,the predicted future time that those price levels will print.
But this did lead me to discovering ( i think) a way of predicting reasonably well the future intraday turning points- highs/lows.
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Old 09-17-2011, 12:12 AM   #2

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Re: Beyond Gann

I'm not going to give away the method for these predictions here for obvious reasons but i will post the predictions so we can see how they turn out purely for entertainment

The basic premise is that Gann was correct when he said that time and price are the same thing. That is the statement i want to prove is true.But i am not using his methods because i dont believe it works in the way he says.Others have said that he didn't demonstrate the whole theory because he wanted his students to find the missing pieces for themselves.Don't know if he told them that before they handed over 5000 dollars,but personally...i'd be pissed with my end of the deaL

Although i'm not giving away the method it wont cost you 5 grand here to get a few hints

First off,the method
DOES NOT predict price levels
DOES NOT tell you if a future turning point is a high or a low- only the predicted time.
That is no problem since i use my normal methods to determine those things.

There are numerous cycle periods people are using out there- basically if you can think of a number someone claims there is a cycle for it.But many of these don't include PRICE in the calculation.
If price and time are the same unit,they must both be included in the same equation
So my method is:

PRICE X SOMETHING X RATIO = TIME

The idea isn't to play a guessing game here with you guys,so the above is as far as i go on that front.This is just an experiment to try and prove that future turning points in time can be predicted mathmatically.I'm sure that there are many methods of doing this,so if this kind of thing interests you,it's possible that you may stumble upon a method... like i did,and hopefully this thread will inspire you.
Now, who wants to see me make a horses ass of myself with these predictions?
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Old 09-17-2011, 10:49 PM   #3

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Re: Beyond Gann

[QUOTE=mitsubishi;128162]I'm not going to give away the method for these predictions here for obvious reasons but i will post the predictions so we can see how they turn out purely for entertainment

The basic premise is that Gann was correct when he said that time and price are the same thing. That is the statement i want to prove is true.But i am not using his methods because i dont believe it works in the way he says.Others have said that he didn't demonstrate the whole theory because he wanted his students to find the missing pieces for themselves.Don't know if he told them that before they handed over 5000 dollars,but personally...i'd be pissed with my end of the deaL

Although i'm not giving away the method it wont cost you 5 grand here to get a few hints

First off,the method
DOES NOT predict price levels
DOES NOT tell you if a future turning point is a high or a low- only the predicted time.
That is no problem since i use my normal methods to determine those things.

There are numerous cycle periods people are using out there- basically if you can think of a number someone claims there is a cycle for it.But many of these don't include PRICE in the calculation.
If price and time are the same unit,they must both be included in the same equation
So my method is:

PRICE X SOMETHING X RATIO = TIME

The idea isn't to play a guessing game here with you guys,so the above is as far as i go on that front.This is just an experiment to try and prove that future turning points in time can be predicted mathmatically.I'm sure that there are many methods of doing this,so if this kind of thing interests you,it's possible that you may stumble upon a method... like i did,and hopefully this thread will inspire you.
Now, who wants to see me make a horses ass of myself with these predictions?[/QUOTE]


I do, not the horse's ass but the predictions part.....gl
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Old 09-17-2011, 11:42 PM   #4
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Re: Beyond Gann

M.

It would be helpful to let us know what level of accuracy and failure rate you've experienced, so that we may have some context of what to expect. It's always a matter of interest when someone comes up with something that works (color me skeptical). If you please… "the predictions".
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Old 09-18-2011, 09:23 PM   #5

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Re: Beyond Gann

[quote=cash123;128199]
Quote:
Originally Posted by mitsubishi »
I'm not going to give away the method for these predictions here for obvious reasons but i will post the predictions so we can see how they turn out purely for entertainment


Now, who wants to see me make a horses ass of myself with these predictions?[/QUOTE]


I do, not the horse's ass but the predictions part.....gl

Thanks cash..i'll be posting various other bits and pieces also
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Old 09-18-2011, 09:52 PM   #6

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Re: Beyond Gann

Quote:
Originally Posted by jpennybags »
M.

It would be helpful to let us know what level of accuracy and failure rate you've experienced, so that we may have some context of what to expect. It's always a matter of interest when someone comes up with something that works (color me skeptical). If you please… "the predictions".
Actually i'm glad you asked that question because i wanted to post the last few days predictions and compare them to the actual turns but i didn't as i thought it would prove nothing.
I have not done extensive back testing.The calculations can only be done if you know the time of day of the previous intraday highs/lows.I don't have much past data to do that,but if anyone here does,i could do more testing. (That would be for S&P 500 cash) Generally speaking i prefer forward testing- discretionary trading is my main thing,so i'm just as skeptical as you at this point,hoping to be suprised.
Anyway,i'll post the last few days results since it will give at least an indication of what to expect.
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Old 09-18-2011, 10:05 PM   #7

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Re: Beyond Gann

The problem with Gann's work is that it is all based on price as in his day he had no access to real-time volume or real-time information about buying and selling volumes.

Today everybody can access this information and see the forces that drive price rather than just price itself.

Peter Steidlmayer has always taught that price itself is not a good predictor of price. That if you want to predict or foretell a result - look to the cause.

The cause of price movment is not the passage of time, it is buying and selling or the balance of trade. If trade is balanced price doesn't change yet time marches on.

Please Click to enlarge image



Please Click to enlarge image



Please Click to enlarge image


cheers

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Old 09-19-2011, 01:49 AM   #8

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Re: Beyond Gann

Recent predictions (see chart)
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