[darvasfan]

Mitsu - I don't want to burst your bubble, but some friendly advice from one who has been there. Don't go down that rabbit hole. It is hard to emerge and you will waste untold hours trying to find the "secret". I'm telling you that from someone who has been there and wasted several years studying Gann and trying to discover his secrets. If you doubt me, I can tell you that I spent many months studying the code in Tunnel Through the Air alone. Did I make some breakthroughs? Yes. Did it lead to profitable trading? NO.

Yes, there are some things you can see that causes one to scratch the head and say "That's amazing." The square of 9 is a perfect example. I have seen markets turn on the exact day and price predicted by the square. Problem is, there are so many more times when it doesn't happen that it essentially becomes random. I never could arrive at a workable strategy to trade Gann and gave up after several years trying.

I know that there are "experts" out there that trade based on his principles. More power to them. However, even among the experts, I've not heard of anyone replicating what Gann was reported to have done in the Ticker article and in his other successes. Place your efforts on more rewarding areas, such as price volume analysis, developing basic set-ups, etc. You will benefit much more than by pursuing the edge of the shadow.

[UrmaBlume]

Below is copyrighted text taken from "Practical Short Term Trading - Techniques & Technologies" that is reproduced here with permission from the author.

Three True Descriptions of the

Price/Time/Volume Continuum are:

"As Price changes or not and Time passes Volume happens/accumulates.

As Time passes and Trade/Volume happens Prices change in Direct Proportion to the degree to which that Trade is Imbalanced.

As Time passes and Trade/Volume happens Prices change in Inverse Proportion to the degree to which that Trade is Balanced."

Cheers

UrmaBlume

[pitrader]

Those who live by the crystal ball will have to learn to eat glass. The market speaks 5 languages ( Price, Time, Momentum, Pattern and Value).

The key to successful trading is not in forecasting the future rather it is in properly
quantifying the present.

If you have finally come to the point in your development as a trader where the ringing of a cash register is more important than caressing that intellectual G spot then the necessity to pinpoint exact highs and lows and say “You see I knew it would hit that tick”!!! will no longer plague your performance. If you can properly translate even 2 of those languages adhere to your game plan and stop being so focused on being a Wall St Edgar Casey it is then that you will accomplish what is needed. (Extracting a consistent living from the markets).

“We shall not cease from exploration and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started... and know the place for the first time.”

[Logic]

Originally Posted by pitrader »

Those who live by the crystal ball will have to learn to eat glass. The market speaks 5 languages ( Price, Time, Momentum, Pattern and Value).

The key to successful trading is not in forecasting the future rather it is in properly
quantifying the present.

If you have finally come to the point in your development as a trader where the ringing of a cash register is more important than caressing that intellectual G spot then the necessity to pinpoint exact highs and lows and say “You see I knew it would hit that tick”!!! will no longer plague your performance. If you can properly translate even 2 of those languages adhere to your game plan and stop being so focused on being a Wall St Edgar Casey it is then that you will accomplish what is needed. (Extracting a consistent living from the markets).

“We shall not cease from exploration and the end of all our exploring will be to arrive where we started... and know the place for the first time.”

Nice post.!!! Better words were probably spoken . . . but not in the last 30 minutes.

[mitsubishi]

Originally Posted by pitrader »

Those who live by the crystal ball will have to learn to eat glass.

All T.A is about the resolution of a limited number of probabilities.The end of every trading day is the resolution of a limited number of probabilities.Each trade is based on a prediction which has only 2 probabilities.
If you're a momentum trader and you buy breakouts,you are predicting higher prices.If you fade that breakout you are predicting a failed breakout and lower prices.Now, i know lot's of traders hate the word 'prediction' and start talking money management etc. But the reality is we are in the prediction business like it or not.
You mentioned the elements which you use to weigh the probabilities.You got yours,i got mine.If either of us had the magic formula,the holy grail,we would both be extremely rich by now.... i'll go first ..not

[mitsubishi]

Originally Posted by darvasfan »

Mitsu - I don't want to burst your bubble, but some friendly advice from one who has been there. Don't go down that rabbit hole. It is hard to emerge and you will waste untold hours trying to find the "secret". I'm telling you that from someone who has been there and wasted several years studying Gann and trying to discover his secrets. If you doubt me, I can tell you that I spent many months studying the code in Tunnel Through the Air alone. Did I make some breakthroughs? Yes. Did it lead to profitable trading? NO.

Yes, there are some things you can see that causes one to scratch the head and say "That's amazing." The square of 9 is a perfect example. I have seen markets turn on the exact day and price predicted by the square. Problem is, there are so many more times when it doesn't happen that it essentially becomes random. I never could arrive at a workable strategy to trade Gann and gave up after several years trying.

I know that there are "experts" out there that trade based on his principles. More power to them. However, even among the experts, I've not heard of anyone replicating what Gann was reported to have done in the Ticker article and in his other successes. Place your efforts on more rewarding areas, such as price volume analysis, developing basic set-ups, etc. You will benefit much more than by pursuing the edge of the shadow.

Ah.you don't want to burst my bubble but you come here with a pin in your hand!?
First off i am using nothing of Gann except the idea that price and time are connected.The method i am using here is of my own device.There is no bubble here.Trading is one thing and rabbit holes are another thing at this stage for me.I am not basing trading decisions on these predictions,this is merely a forward test and i am as much of an observer as any visitor here.I have stated quite clearly that i'm a discretionary trader.
The biggest rabbit hole imo are all the freely available indicators,books trading courses etc.
I hope you won't think my style of writing is rude and i mean no offense at all,but lets cut the crap.I am one of those rare people who had the luxury of being able to do my 10k hours of study full time without having to worry about money. I know all about rabbit holes.
You say you ' wasted several years studying Gann' . I would say i wasted no years.The pieces of the jigsaw are scattered everywhere.You didn't waste your time if you feel you can safely eliminate Gann.
If you can do what is required in your job,any job, there is no downside in attempting to become exceptional at it.And that will always involve a lot more work.thinking outside the box,while fending off people who will tell you what the present limitations are,or what they believe them to be.
I appreciate what you wrote and why you wrote it.I understand why there may be some confusion about the nature of this thread.It is probably because i said i wouldn't divulge the details of the method which kind of infers that i have some secret holy grail predictor thing,which i don't.
All i'm doing is testing something that looks promising.But if it turns out to be amazing i'll be glad i didn't share the details.For all i know there is someone out there who is using the same thing or something similar and keeping very very quiet about it.
Once again.i appreciate your post.

[mitsubishi]

I'll answer the question i asked in my first post.Gann was almost certainly a con artist.
Why do i think that? .Simple probabilities.It's much easier to be a con artist than it is to be a genius.
It's much easier to bribe a couple of journalists to 'witness' the 'genius' at work in his home.than it is to trade live in front of a neutral audience.What kind of person really wants to spend his life travelling the world studying weird and wonderfull things,devoting years to the quest with not so much as a calculator only to deliberately mislead people as a final legacy?.The reason he talked about all kinds of different stuff is probably because he didn't really achieve what he believed was achievable because his theory was flawed.He saw as,Darvas suggested,uncanny things happen and thought it was the rule rather than the exception.Probably why,if you follow his teachings you'll see uncanny stuff yourself.Maybe he would have 'found it' if he'd lived longer.
You know,if i was him i wouldn't be writing to people i hardly knew,telling them I'd invented a 'master calculator' for which i normally charge 5k a student, but 'i can make a special price for you'. That is a salesman talking not a genius.
No.if i were Gann i think i'd do the most obvious,sensible thing,and just get extremely rich..pretty quickly actually.
To be fair maybe he was an ok trader but just wanted to be exceptional- maybe that's why i find him interesting.He was still a conman though. He probably was one of those people who believe the end justifies the means-so bribe journalists in the first instance and hope you can find the grail later without anyone noticing the gap.
He would have been a good politician,they also believe the end justifies the means,even if they have to kill 100 thousand Iraqis to prove it.
You'll be glad to know i'm not trying to con anyone here,least of all myself,let alone kill anyone-no traders were killed in the making of this thread

[UrmaBlume]

Once you have drunk that much Kool-Aid all that's left is a long series of non sequiturs.

UrmaBlume