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Showing results for tags 'clayburg'.
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Last fall I was very interested in purchasing the TTM Universal System by John Clayburg over at Online System Trading. I was looking for an automated system to complement my descressionary day trading when I stumbled upon a webinar by Dr. Clayburg and his Universal System seemed like a real possibility. However, I was a little skeptical to put forth $7,500 on a trading system I did not fully understand. So, I did some research. I first discovered Clayburg offers no trial version of his software and I didn't know anyone who really uses it. You can lease the Universal System for $600 per month, but that did not satisfy me. So, I decided to become a member of his site ($30 per month) so I could view the member videos and participate in the discussion forum and see what else I could learn about the system. I'm glad I joined! To make a long story short, the Universal System is tricky to setup and trade effectively. You simply don't just turn it on. Far from it. It needs to be optimized tested, refined before committing any money. Furthermore, when Clayburg shows off one of his performance reports or displays an equity curve on a particular trading system, commissions and slippage are not included. That sure makes the equity curve look great! Now, he has his reasons for not including commissions and slippage, but in my opinion this can be very deceiving for people new to the Universal System. While Clayburg does provided a lot of very helpful information with his video updates I have to say in the end I'm glad I didn't purchase the Universal Trading System for $7,500. I fear I would be very disappointed. A few weeks back a stumbled upon this! The Universal Clone - a free beta download. I've been playing with it for a few weeks now (not with real money!) and would like to start a series of posts highlighting the trading parameters and results I've been a achieving. Don't expect too much! I'm still learning and I've not found a profitable system that remains profitable on a consistent basis. Anyway, maybe we can learn a little about the system and who knows, maybe we can develop a tradable system. If you have been thinking about buying the Universal System, try the Universal Clone out first. It's free (for now anyway) and you get to see how the Universal trades without spending $7,500. So, go download a copy of the Universal Clone and follow along.
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As I stated in another post I would like to make a series of posts over time highlighting my experience with the Universal Clone automated system. This is the first post and it deals with backtesting. Below is a 5-minute ES chart with the first date at the beginning of 2009 and ending on 4/24/2009. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=10325&stc=1&d=1240781966 It’s a great looking curve and the settings are as follows: StartTime 845 EndTime 1500 CloseTime 1505 Cntracts 2 Target 1 Cntracts 1 Initial Stop Loss $150 B1 20 S1 11 B2 7 S2 13 Max Trades 1000 Day Loss $600 (all other inputs are not used) Now, slippage and commissions are not included. But that’s not what really worries me. What does worry me is how do you back test this? Well, in TradeStation (TS) is you can set how a bar (in this case a 5-minute bar) is generated at the tick level. For example, I can back test this at the 50-tick level (and that’s what this chart is). Presumably TS then calculates the strategy appropriately down to the 50-tick level as each bar is generated. You can select a 1-tick level for even more precise results, right! Well, not necessarily. According to Clayburg TS does not have this tick level backtesting down to a science. Thus, it’s not accurate. He has demonstrated that tick level backtesting is only accurate for about two weeks of history. After that, the results are not reliable. Thus, the only real way to demonstrate that a given strategy is effective is to let it run on live market data. That is, you don’t trade real money but leave that chart active during normal market hours and the system will generated signals and process those signals in real-time as the data streams in from your internet connection. At the end of the day note the progress of the strategy. Repeat for a week or two and then evaluate the equity curve and system report. Does it hold up? Yes, then maybe consider trading real money. If not, back to changing the parameters. So, testing can be a time consuming process.
