[aidaweb01]

I've read in other forums that the turtle methods no longer work in todays markets. I am likely to be shot down in flames because I can't actually back that statement up!

But, I do think that their scaling into positions was the key to their success and that derivations on this technique are 100% valid today. IMHO this is also the hardest part of their plan to replicate - Balls of steel required.

Wonder if anyone has any success stories on scaling in?

[BlowFish]

Looks like originalturtles.com has gone. This was the ruleset that I looked at. What makes the system is the money management rules, and those may be of interest to people. The trigger is simply a BO Donchian style.

I find the sparring between Sands & Faith amusing but thats another story.

Heres the copy of the originalturtles.com version for those interested. Takes a certain kind of emotional strength (and a pretty large account) to be a full on trend follower, not my sort of thing though the simplicity is tempting.

You might be interested in reviewing a Model Validation of the "Turtle Trading System" that was submitted as college coursework here:

Turtle Model Validation

-fs

[bootstrap]

Originally Posted by aidaweb01 »

I've read in other forums that the turtle methods no longer work in todays markets. I am likely to be shot down in flames because I can't actually back that statement up!

But, I do think that their scaling into positions was the key to their success and that derivations on this technique are 100% valid today. IMHO this is also the hardest part of their plan to replicate - Balls of steel required.

Wonder if anyone has any success stories on scaling in?

There will be those that will disagree with me, but here is my opinion based on my own research.

Scaling In actually falls into two categories: Averaging Up and Averaging Down. The Turtle method averages up, and is still effective for a trend trader. But only if the exits are adjusted accordingly. The beauty of Averaging Up for a trend trader is that it allows you to get in early using a very simple entry with a minimal position. You only have the full position on when the market proves you right.

For scalpers and swing traders, I lean toward putting the whole position on at the get go. these guys usually work with targets as exits, and very seldom let the market run like a trend trader does.

I personally do Average Down on my long term investments.

[weiwei]

when I 1st draw to trading, I do have Mike Caval course, and think that is the answer to my success. After all, those tutle traders was trained to be become successful, and they did prove that people picked from street can be trained to do trading successfully.

For beginner, it is just what I wanted to hear, and yet I spend a lot of time study and try to trade it. But guess what it dose not work, so I keep on looking for answer on why it dose not work for me.

After years of reading, one day I got the answer that I think is very realistic. Author give the fact that Rich put in his own money into the fund, so his money is only about a few % of the fund. On top of that, Rich can get 20% fee from profit and other fee for manage the fund. So even at Max of 40% drawdown, his own drawdown was not as bad. The conclusion was that if Rich have to take 40% drawdown, he would have hard time to follow it as well.

So at end, my conclusion is that I can not run a system after running to 40% drawdown, and still have the ball to on. and my conclusion is that there is almost no one has the psychological toughness to go on at that point.

So if you are into turtle method or want to study it, do not ignore the psychological endurance that one will have to take. Just because Turtles can do it, dose not mean you can do it. Think about what they had, and what you have now compare all together. You would know if it fits you or now.

[windsurfer]

weiwei,

which products did you trade?

[carguy0001]

I think to trade like Mr Dennis you need two things---huge account and a sales pitch to refund your blown account. I beleve he has gone broke at least three times. Sure this can be verified if someone wants to dig for it.

[hunnybunny]

Just a note for those considering shelling out an exorbitant amount for a turtle course ... Curtis Faith is one of the successful original turtles and is not running any courses. Those plying the turtle courses are the turtles dropped from the original program, so please don't be fooled. If you do want to learn about the turtles, the book by Curtis Faith is your best bet (and cheap) or his pdf summary of the rules (free) from the url provided by others in this thread. Please do not be taken in by the fraudsters passing themselves off as successful turtles.