[WHY?]

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this was theme for day... I made a bunch on short-side... tried long-side but it chopped too much and only made a little there... tried short-side again and lost a little bit and missed the big move up. on to tomorrow.

Glad to hear that. The bias was the short side (better as a SS day than a buy day) even though the range was narrow. Sometime later today I will look at the ES in my software and see what I come up with. Taylor would call tomm 10-24 a buy day with a shorting opportunity and a possible long too. Some strenght came into the market but wasnt alot. Dogpile what kind of vol figures you get today? Total and concentrated?

[Dogpile]

in my view, we have a potential breakout set-up for tomorrow. The daily chart shows a day with a higher low than the 3-day low and a lower high than the 3-day high. this forms a bit of a triangle. On a 15-minute chart, we have a 'low adx' set-up -- which is generally a precursor to a directional move the next day. I will look for either 'range expansion off opening price' or will look to play the first 'flag' that sets up once a directional move begins with strong momentum.

We do have 2 consecutive 'low to high' days so I am also looking for a high to low' day. Monday looks like the buy day, Tuesday the 'buy the higher low day' (consistent with a 'buy day+1' -- which Taylor called a 'sell day'). The breakout set-up is the dominant thing though, in my view.

[Dogpile]

here is the 15-min chart. can see low ADX on the bottom. Can see there are 2 green bars which indicate 'low to high' (green) or 'high to low' (red) days.

note that there was a lot of congestion today in the 1521.00 area so I will not be inititating shorts in that area unless we break below that first with momentum -- then short is ok with a stop somewhere well-above 1521.00.

[WHY?]

Here are some Taylor calls I am posting for price action tomm 10-24

1) ASTF Taylor Buy day - Buy at 1.10 to 1.11 if low made first. If looks like it will close near high hold the long and sell on 10-25. If high is made first on 10-24 then short at 1.16 to 1.18 try to cover same day. If both are made by noon do both.

2) CRGN Taylor BUY DAY - Short at 1.00 to 1.02 if high made first. Cover same day. If low is made first buy at .95 to .97. Sell longs same day on a good rally or hold for next day if it looks like it will close high. If both made by noon, then do both.

3) GE Taylor Short Sell day - Short at 40.56 to 40.63 Cover same day on any decline.

4) INSM Taylor Buy day - Buy if low made first at 89 to 91. Sell the longs on any good rally or hold for next day if it looks like it will close high. If high made first short at 1.00 to 1.02. Cover same day. If both made by noon do both.

5) MOVI - Taylor Sell day - Possible BV made early in session. If a BV is made go long once tape indicates a bottom is made on any low under .17. The sell out the same day on any penetration of .17 or if need be at .17. A BV to be valid must be made no later that noon. The sooner the better.

6) POTP - Taylor Sell day - Possible BV coming early any the session. If so go long at any price under .34 when you think the bottom has been made. Sell long on any rallly to or penetration of .34. A BV to be valid must be made no later that noon. The sooner the better.


7) PTN - Taylor Buy day - Buy on a low made first at .35 to .36. Sell same day on a good rally or hold to sell the next day if it looks like it will close near the high. If high made first then short at .38 to .39 and cover same day.

8) CMGI Taylor sell day - Possible BV. Go long on any thing south of 1.31 once you think the bottom is made. Sell those longs the same day on any penetration of 1.31

These are the general guidelines. Exact entries and exits are determined by reading the intraday tape. All BV's must be made early in the session to take them. Never take a BV made in the afternoon. Big gap openings immediately eliminate the stock as a potential candidate. With penny stocks always try to see the opening first before taking a position. Also, with pennies when daytrading the secret is to try and get a good entry and on the exit get out with a slice out of the middle. Don't worry if you don't get the last cent. With penny stocks You have to get out when the volume is there. Or, you might end up on the low and can't get out on a short or, on the high, with a long, and action becomes dead, and you can't get out of your position even though you have a profit. So, get that slice and run! Also, if less than 200,000 shares are being exchanged a day then deal in 5000 or less shares. If 400,000 or more change hands daily then you can deal in up to 15,000 shares at time.

[stackm]

I agree with Dogpile that the cycle indicates a "short sell" day tomorrow, in that we had two low to high days in a row. Monday displayed classic "buy day" action in that we tested low and rallied. Tuesday would have been a good day to sell.

But I can also see how Why? can state that tomorrow might be a buy day based on his analysis.

These are the kinds of uncertainties that have been giving me trouble.

I don't have my Taylor book in front of me. Assume tomorrow is as Dogpile suggests, a "short sell" day. The best scenario would be shorting into a gap up.

Would Taylor advise stepping aside if the market gaps down? Or perhaps wait for the gap to close and possibly short then?

Thanks to all for your time. Glad we have a few folks interested in learning.

[WHY?]

Taylor would say that 10-24 is a buy day for ES. Now remember on an ideal buy day it will trade down low first and make the objective early in the session. It could open low too. The point is the low is will made first and soon after the market open in the ideal buy day pattern.

On the other hand on a less than ideal buy day it trades up first making the high first. But since it is a buy day I can short it if that happens.

So, I have two potential shots tomm. Short in the 1526 to 1529 area and go long in the 1506 to 1509 area. Or do both if the action allows me within taylors rules.

Of course, the live intraday action determines the exact entry. But depending on what this does I determine the real trend of the day early on. That is what I want to be on. The real trend.

[WHY?]

Monday displayed classic "buy day" action in that we tested low and rallied. Tuesday would have been a good day to sell.

Monday was clearly a sell day that made a BV early not a buy day.

These are the kinds of uncertainties that have been giving me trouble.

You have to remember there are ideal buy days and not so ideal buy days. Same for the other two days in the cycle. Monday was a less than ideal sell day that gave one the opportunity to go long on a lower low than the previous day 10-19 (a buy day). If you don't recognize this you will forever be confusing one day with the other and call many BV days a buy day because they tested the low and did so earlier. Just because price action tested the low early in the session and then rallied does not automatically make that day a buy day even though that is the action an ideal buy day has. You can have a less than ideal SS day that that goes under the sell day low early in the session and trades up and closes high. That doesn't make it a buy day just because it tested the low first. It is still a shortsell day but a less than ideal SS day. You would never short that day even though it is an SS day. Why? Because it will most likely open the next day (abuy day) trade up and make for better shorting. See what I mean?

I don't have my Taylor book in front of me. Assume tomorrow is as Dogpile suggests, a "short sell" day. The best scenario would be shorting into a gap up.

Would Taylor advise stepping aside if the market gaps down? Or perhaps wait for the gap to close and possibly short then?

If it were a Short sell day Taylor would only allow shorting IF it made the objective first i.e. penetrated the high or came close to the high of the previous day (buy day). How it does that doesn't matter. Straight up.... gap up....inching don't matter except in terms of knowing when the top has been reached.

But 10-24 is a Buy day not an SS day.

[stackm]

I will explain my reasoning here, just so folks can correct my errors...

My thoughts were that you can choose the lowest price of a ten day sample, and call that a buy day. Doing this on ES gives us Monday 10/22 as the buy day (lowest 10 day price). This makes sense to me as the markets were engineered lower Monday at the start, and we saw a nice two day rally the rest of Monday + Tuesday from these lows.

With this cycle and counting backward, Friday 10/19 would be a short sell day, Thursday 10/18 a sell day, Wednesday 10/17 a buy day. The price behavior these days is consistent with this interpretation of the cycle. Markets started Friday at their highs and dropped all day.

Counting forward, the cycle makes sense as well. If we take into account after market action a short sell at end of day Tuesday 10/23 would be profitable as of now.

At the same time (Why's) reasoning makes a lot of sense as well. I had originally had marked 10/19 Friday as a buy day before the price action. After the drop, can I justify pushing the buy day forward a day to Monday, or will this break too many rules?

I need to dig deeper into the Taylor book and hopefully I can contribute some better insight. Just having a hard time grasping why Friday would make a more logical buy day than this past Monday.