[Dogpile]

<<Does this make any sense or have I just confused the issue even more?>>


I didn't say anything about going back 3 months so I am not sure what you mean by this last post. I was just asking if you thought today might have been action consistent enough with a 'buy day' to change your thinking for tomorrow. You mentioned today was a sell day and therefore tomorrow would be a 'sell short day' in which longs are not consistent with Taylor. Again, I am just curious on how you interpreted todays action with how it relates for tomorrow. I may very well go long tomorrow -- or I may not -- I am just trying to understand any 'adjustments' made in how you are thinking about it.

Today worked out well. We moved below the previous day low and could therefore use the previous day low plus a bit more as a target. This was 1505+ on the S&P futures -- call it 1505-1510.

This was a nice target to have (1505+) because I had no other pivot to work with given the trend-down nature of Fridays action. There was no real zone to short into -- therefore I favored the long-side early. I had the Taylor method as a roadmap and we had 'upside range expansion off opening price' (a market profile concept) as confirmation of that bullish roadmap.

I did a long-side trade and made some money this morning. Then later did a short-side trade and made a lot on that one. I then stopped trading though I really could have tried another long as my oscillators were extended to downside just as we re-entered that high-volume 1505 congestion zone. In retrospect on the day, I am pleased but feel I did miss a good long on Russell this morning -- but that is ok.

For tomorrow, here would be the my guidelines:

If today were a buy day -- I would actually look to go long on the day after a buy day if we test down 'first.' An obvious spot would be a test down into the high-volume 1505 area -- looking for a morning reversal and a range expansion type of move up. If we test up first tomorrow and it was a buy day, then I will look to short, should price action favor that (ie, not something like strong upward range expansion off opening price on big volume). I don't really see an obvious high-volume zone right now to short into so this might be tricky. But Taylor could also do a short on a move above todays high tomorrow -- so that is a possibility.

If today were a sell day -- tomorrow would be a sell-short day and we would look to short above todays high. No longs on a sell short day so that would not be an option. This is what you (WHY?) called today -- a sell day -- making tomorrow a sell-short day. Will just have to see.

If today were a sell-short day, making tomorrow a buy-day -- then we could go long on a viloation of todays low or on a 'higher bottom'. We could also go short on a 'high made first' type of set-up where we violate todays high tomorrow.
------------

Here is the funny thing, even if you don't know how to count Taylor days -- you have a 2 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you just look to buy on a test lower (lower low or higher bottom). And you have a 3 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you look to short a test of a previous high -- since shorting is allowed on any of the 3 days. Thus, the only time you will be out of sync with Taylor is the time you are going long right into a sell short-day. Does that make sense? You don't really have to count days -- you just have to be a good short-term trader and follow those basic rules and you 'can' be right 5 out of 6 times... I say this only because I can honestly say I don't understand how Taylor is counting days yet. I can 'try' -- but I just can't get definititive answers about how you KNOW this or that day was what.

[WHY?]

I didn't say anything about going back 3 months so I am not sure what you mean by this last post

. The three months statement had absolutely nothing to do with anything you have said and I didn't mean it to come across that way. I was trying to get the point over that what is more important is the closer action and it wouldn't matter if rephasing changed an orginal Taylor buy day to say a sell day that happened 3 months ago, or even say 1 month ago. That is all.

I was just asking if you thought today might have been action consistent enough with a 'buy day' to change your thinking for tomorrow. You mentioned today was a sell day and therefore tomorrow would be a 'sell short day' in which longs are not consistent with Taylor. Again, I am just curious on how you interpreted todays action with how it relates for tomorrow. I may very well go long tomorrow -- or I may not -- I am just trying to understand any 'adjustments' made in how you are thinking about it.

Taylor would maintain that tomm 11-23 will be a Short sell day IF he had been trading this stock for say 4 or 5 weeks.

Today worked out well. We moved below the previous day low and could therefore use the previous day low plus a bit more as a target. This was 1505+ on the S&P futures -- call it 1505-1510.

This was a nice target to have (1505+) because I had no other pivot to work with given the trend-down nature of Fridays action. There was no real zone to short into -- therefore I favored the long-side early. I had the Taylor method as a roadmap and we had 'upside range expansion off opening price' (a market profile concept) as confirmation of that bullish roadmap.

I did a long-side trade and made some money this morning. Then later did a short-side trade and made a lot on that one. I then stopped trading though I really could have tried another long as my oscillators were extended to downside just as we re-entered that high-volume 1505 congestion zone. In retrospect on the day, I am pleased but feel I did miss a good long on Russell this morning -- but that is ok.

Great! Glad Taylor is perhaps helping you fine tune. Every bit helps!

For tomorrow, here would be the my guidelines:

If today were a buy day -- I would actually look to go long on the day after a buy day if we test down 'first.' An obvious spot would be a test down into the high-volume 1505 area -- looking for a morning reversal and a range expansion type of move up. If we test up first tomorrow and it was a buy day, then I will look to short, should price action favor that (ie, not something like strong upward range expansion off opening price on big volume). I don't really see an obvious high-volume zone right now to short into so this might be tricky. But Taylor could also do a short on a move above todays high tomorrow -- so that is a possibility.

Nothing wrong with that thinking! Actually, by rephasing via taylor 10 day deal and calling 10-23 a Taylor buy day you have just created two possible opportunities for yourself. A short (probable because of the high close today 10-22) and then cover and go long on decline IF made early in the session. However, I would take care on that long. We got a little strenght back in the market today but it is still an extremely weak market. I wouldn't ride any long up too far unless the intraday tape tomm shows alot of strenght coming back into the market. If you take a long position tomm and market is grudgingly going up and it is getting in the afternoon I wouldn't hold that long for selling on 10-24 (as would be normal) but I would cinch my profits before the day closed. A weak close on a buy day is not good news for a long position. As Taylor would say "cinch" your profits.

If today were a sell day -- tomorrow would be a sell-short day and we would look to short above todays high. No longs on a sell short day so that would not be an option. This is what you (WHY?) called today -- a sell day -- making tomorrow a sell-short day. Will just have to see.

Yep, you got it. I will stick with Taylor on this one and call it a SS day. If the market would have showed more strenght today 10-22 I might would rephase (using Taylors 10 day guideline or my software rephase) and see if it would change tomm to a buy day. If it did I would be giving myself 2 opportunities. But since the market was stronger than 10-19 but still weak I'll stick to my SS bias for 10-23.

If today were a sell-short day, making tomorrow a buy-day -- then we could go long on a viloation of todays low or on a 'higher bottom'. We could also go short on a 'high made first' type of set-up where we violate todays high tomorrow.

That is correct. But to make it more precise; To go long it must do so early in the session. You wouldn't want to go long if it made the low at the end of the session tomm 11-23 even if tomm is a buy day. Also to short tomm if you call it a buy day that opportunity must present itself early in the session. You would not short on a buy day high made last for you would be bucking the trend.

Here is the funny thing, even if you don't know how to count Taylor days -- you have a 2 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you just look to buy on a test lower (lower low or higher bottom). And you have a 3 in 3 chance of being consistent with Taylor if you look to short a test of a previous high. Thus, the only time you will be out of sync with Taylor is the time you are going long right into a sell short-day. Does that make sense? You don't really have to count days -- you just have to be a good short-term trader and follow those basic rules and you 'can' be right 5 out of 6 times... I say this only because I can honestly say I don't understand how Taylor is counting days yet. I can 'try' -- but I just can't get definititive answers about how you KNOW this or that day was what.

Interesting eh??

[smoothdrive]

Originally Posted by WHY? »

If you like name a individual stock or two in tc2000 you would like to track and/or the QQQQ and I will help in that area. I suggest get a decent price stock that has good volume and also out of curiosity pick a stock under 1.50 share (from .20 to 1.50) that has at least 100,000 shares on average (more is better) a day and doesnt trade in highly defined range, and we will track it

Hello WHY?

Thank you very much! A suggestion or two from me for the larger picks would be the QQQQ, CAT or GE. I like your idea for a small priced pick. First, I ran a scan for all stocks in the universe having a price between $.20 and $1.50 with a 30 days simple moving average of volume over 100,000. That scan provided about 120 stocks. So, I increased the volume to 500,000 and that provided the following:

ASTM CMGI CNXT CPST CRGN DVW ENCY GNTA IMH INPC INSM MCZ MGRM
MOVI NGEN NWD ONT OPTV POTP PTN QTWW REV SNUS TOA TXCC VG ZHNE

If you don’t mind, perhaps you could take a peek at a few of these and pick the one you think would be a good candidate. You would have a much better eye for this than me.

Most kind of you sir. Thanks and take care,

Gary

[WHY?]

Originally Posted by smoothdrive »

Hello WHY?

Thank you very much! A suggestion or two from me for the larger picks would be the QQQQ, CAT or GE. I like your idea for a small priced pick. First, I ran a scan for all stocks in the universe having a price between $.20 and $1.50 with a 30 days simple moving average of volume over 100,000. That scan provided about 120 stocks. So, I increased the volume to 500,000 and that provided the following:

ASTM CMGI CNXT CPST CRGN DVW ENCY GNTA IMH INPC INSM MCZ MGRM
MOVI NGEN NWD ONT OPTV POTP PTN QTWW REV SNUS TOA TXCC VG ZHNE

If you don’t mind, perhaps you could take a peek at a few of these and pick the one you think would be a good candidate. You would have a much better eye for this than me.

Most kind of you sir. Thanks and take care,

Gary

Do you know how to create a watch list in TC 2000? If so you can be a help to me and save me some time. Create a watch list and call it Taylor. Put in all the stocks in your list above. Next export this to a file. Here is how I need you to export it from within Tc2000.

Exporting Stock Data to a file T2000

Download end of day data from wordens 40 minutes or and hour after the market closes. Select the Taylor watch list that has the stocks you put in there (this is very important as you only want the data for these stocks to be exported not on all 10,000 stocks). Next click on Databank at top then "export to text". Again verify that the "List to Export" now says "Export Taylor". Next instructions are VERY important. Follow them exactly. You should only have to do the following data field setup onetime not each day. You have clicked on "Export to Text" and you are at the export screen and have made sure that the list to export is the "Export Taylor list" Now to set up the data fields. Under "Available Data Fields" one by one select the below data fields and click the "add" button. You will have to do this for each field one by one. Select ONLY these fields and make sure they appear in ORDER in the right side of the screen: open, high, low, close, volume, symbol, company name, exchange, and the last field called Date YYYYMMDD. DO NOT select any other of the field options. Next click on "single file" and in the blank space type in this name for it: taylor.txt

Next select 40 days for the amount of data, then select the drive and directory where you plan to export it. Send it to a place you can readily find it such as C: or desktop. Next select "descending". Click on export. In just a few seconds it will export 40 days of data for all the stocks in your Taylor watch list. Email this file as an attachment to me. I am sending my email address to you via private mail. This is what I need you to do each day 1 hour after market closes (to give worden time to uodate all the data). Logon and update worden. Then export that tayor watchlist each day and send it to me. That will save me alot of time. Let me know of you can do this.

Thanks

[smoothdrive]

Just sent it.

Originally Posted by WHY? »

Do you know how to create a watch list in TC 2000? If so you can be a help to me and save me some time. Create a watch list and call it Taylor. Put in all the stocks in your list above. Next export this to a file. Here is how I need you to export it from within Tc2000.

Exporting Stock Data to a file T2000

Download end of day data from wordens 40 minutes or and hour after the market closes. Select the Taylor watch list that has the stocks you put in there (this is very important as you only want the data for these stocks to be exported not on all 10,000 stocks). Next click on Databank at top then "export to text". Again verify that the "List to Export" now says "Export Taylor". Next instructions are VERY important. Follow them exactly. You should only have to do the following data field setup onetime not each day. You have clicked on "Export to Text" and you are at the export screen and have made sure that the list to export is the "Export Taylor list" Now to set up the data fields. Under "Available Data Fields" one by one select the below data fields and click the "add" button. You will have to do this for each field one by one. Select ONLY these fields and make sure they appear in ORDER in the right side of the screen: open, high, low, close, volume, symbol, company name, exchange, and the last field called Date YYYYMMDD. DO NOT select any other of the field options. Next click on "single file" and in the blank space type in this name for it: taylor.txt

Next select 40 days for the amount of data, then select the drive and directory where you plan to export it. Send it to a place you can readily find it such as C: or desktop. Next select "descending". Click on export. In just a few seconds it will export 40 days of data for all the stocks in your Taylor watch list. Email this file as an attachment to me. I am sending my email address to you via private mail. This is what I need you to do each day 1 hour after market closes (to give worden time to uodate all the data). Logon and update worden. Then export that tayor watchlist each day and send it to me. That will save me alot of time. Let me know of you can do this.

Thanks

[WHY?]

For 10-23
CRGN is an SS day - short at or near 1.00 - 1.02 if opens normal cover around .96

GNTA - Sell day - if it trades under 1.05 by noon go long on a bv when it bottoms. Sell long same day on any rally thru 1.05 to 1.08.

IMH - SS day - short near 1.06 /1.07 if it makes it there grudgingly by 11:30. If it starts up fast early in session hold off and short at a higher point. This stock can do that. Otherwise, do nothing on this one. No longs. Cover on any decline the same day.

MCZ - Buy Day - short on any penetration of 1.18 early in session but watch tape! Cover on any decline to around 1.09 to 1.10. iF it does all this by 12:00 then take a long postion around 1.08 /1.09 after covering your short. Watch the tape on this one.


Will send some more later. Gotta sleep.

[Dogpile]

just my 2 cents:

individual stocks are loaded with 'chaos' in the short-run. I think you are better off sticking to liquid ETFs that don't have futures contracts attached to them. The ones I have been studying are EEM (emerging markets ETF trading 10-20 million shares per day) and XLF (the financial ETF which has been trading 60 million shares per day). The Brazil Index (EWZ) is also very active. XLE, the energy ETF, is very active but I just don't like the way it trades.

with ETF's, you will never have to worry too much about some individual stock rumor that will cause the instrument to drop -5 or -10 or -20% out of nowhere. just my opinion.

[OAC]

Originally Posted by Dogpile »

XLE, the energy ETF, is very active but I just don't like the way it trades.

.

If you like to trade classical patterns, XLE has many clearly cut patterns on an intraday basis. I find it has less shakeouts probably due the fact it is driven by both equity and oil prices.
Sector ETFs as whole are good candidates for Taylor type of analysis
" Sector rotation = Big money manipulation."