PowerCharting Joins TTM

As some may already know, John Carter’s TradeTheMarkets recently brought under their umbrella Robert Hoffman’s PowerCharting, a live daytrading room. They just concluded a 3-day free trial that ran M-W this week. The room maxes out at 1000 and it apparently was full every day during the trial. I couldn’t get logged in on Mon or Tues, but finally did on Wed.

For some reason, I’ve gotten the sense over the years of keeping tabs on Carter, that he was a straight shooter. I’m now inclined to consider otherwise.

Needless to say, Hoffman was less than impressive on Wed, failing to make even one trade and not offering any unique insights or approaches. The big selling point of TTM for this room was that Hoffman hasn’t had a losing trade in over a year and that they had reviewed his trades and could attest to the claim.

Unfortunately, Hoffman doesn’t disclose anywhere on his site a history of his trades, so one is left wondering what exactly the details are behind the claim. That was the reason I wanted to attend; to ask some specific questions. Would it surprise you that those questions went answered? More precisely, since I asked them numerous times, they were ignored.

While logged in, I was scouring the web seeing what others had to say about Hoffman. Threads at ET and Investimonials provided meaningful insights into his style and approach. At the same time, I ran across a positive review…and you’ve gotta love this. A few minutes after stumbling upon it, Hoffman starts regurgitating it word for word as if someone in the trading room had just made the comment via chat. I find that possibility to be highly unlikely. I suspect it was simply a premeditated gimmick Hoffman added to his sales pitch.

As far as the neutral/negative comments, it appears this guy loves to average in and that he takes small wins and big losses. So, he’s a gambler headed for his comeuppance. The sad part is that this is the exact style Carter rails against. The irony is palpable. Not only that, the only time he came close to putting on a trade on Wed was when the crude report got released. Within 15 seconds he has getting all serious about thinking the price action was warranting a trade. He later confirmed that he will trade news events immediately after release. Mmmmm, that’s good gamblin’. Sadly again, Carter comes to his defense and says it’s no big deal.

What I’m hoping is that some subscribers to his room will start posting his trades, complete with detailed information. At a minimum, keep us posted on his “no losing trade” streak. It will come to an end and I don’t think it will be pretty.

Of course, at $300/mo with 500-1000 subscribers (apparently he had around 300 prior to joining with TTM), I think Hoffman will be just fine.

I was surprised to hear he didn't have a loser for a whole year. I was a subscriber before 2010. There were losing trades. He would scale in heavily. Losses could wipe out a couple weeks worth of gains back then.

His room is expenseive at $395 a month now. Granted, I'm impressed by the claim of no loss since Jan of 2010. However, even if that's true, I still wonder how easy it is to trade along with him and still be profitable given commissions and subscription fees. Not everyone is going to want to attempt to scale in as heavily as he can, or get the same fills as him. Trading along with someone with futures isn't as easy as some people assume.

Granted he seems like a nice guy and refers to subscribers as "trading room family members" but you're only a "family member" if you pay him expensive fees.

I'd be interested in hearing some UNBIASED accounts from traders who were recent subscribers. Is the average subscriber profitable over time, or unprofitable, after commish and subcription fees?

I am very busy, but just thought I would post a quick note to try to give a different opinion from the prior two post so that a casual reader might not be left with a fuller view. I realize I hardly ever post (which usually means in a forum that your opinion is flamed if it is somewhat positive as you have no credibility for having to few postings).

Anway, take this for whats its worth. I have been a part of the PowerCharting room a couple years (all of 2009 and 2010). The 3 free trial days was unusual, as there were a 1,000 people there. A person might think his question was being dodged, but how can you answer a 1,000 people asking questions - and they said over and over and over during those three days that the questions were flying so fast many could not be addressed. That makes practical sence if you think about it. However, in the next few days everyone got all their questions answered - even in the nite time session.

In fact, in year 2010 during the trading room hours there were no losing trades made by Robert. I was there I think everyday. By the way, Robert could care less about that record - it just happened in that he had good setups all year.

Yep, he had some losing trades in year 2009 but ended the year up substantially positive. I suspect his 2009 year was more like most great traders would give their right arm for - a good Up year. I suspect he will have some losing trades in year 2011 - but as of Feb. 4, 2011 none in the trading room yet. Again, he could care less about this record - he is more interested in his setups.

Year 2010 was a special year as Robert pretty muched dumped the ES he traded in year 2009 and that paid off big time for him and us. In year 2010 he traded many other instruments (euro, pound, yen, gold, oil, still some es, and othere instruments). In other words, we went where the action was at the time.

No one should make an opinion after just visiting Roberts room for just one day in understanding his trading style. It takes a few months to really learn it and then it can pay off good dividends. I doubt there be another free day as the room is pretty much packed at its 1,000 limit and the only way a person is going to get into the room in the future will be if someone quits. As of this today, the room is not 100% maxed out, but probably will be if you read this at a later time - at that point there will be a waiting list.

Robert's room will NOT work for anyone who is just looking to mirrow trade setups.

Robert's room can work for a person who is wishing to learn setup's that do work, for those needing to learn discipline, and for those who don't think that "huge losses" are just part of trading.

Update at 10:56am on Feb. 4, 2011 - just a quick note a short time after I posted the above while we were waiting for a setup. This has been a slow week for Robert (few small trades each day), but his setup just kicked in couple minutes ago and he made 4 digit profits on an oil trade. He doesn't need to post his winnings on the web, so I am respecting that.

I have joined Rob Hoffman's trading room in Jan 2011 and can verify the previous comments. Till today, April 27th 2011, he has not had a single losing trade in the 4+ months since I have been a member. And I have bben in the room every day. Secondly, he only takes high probability trades and if the setups don't oocur then he will not trade. So, yes, there are days when he does not take any trades such as today (FOMC day) and yesterday. But, there have been days such as Japanese Earthquake etc when he has made $21k in a week. He trades live on his real account in full view of all and doesn't trade a simulated account or announce his trades after the event.

However, membership to his room will not suit everyone. It particularly will not suit those who just wish to take trades every day or just copy Robert's trades irrespective of thier account size or psychological abilities. It is suited to those who wish to learn patience and only taking the trade when the setup is right for their account size and their psyche.

I just felt to give some alternative perspective form someone who has seen Robert trade every day for the last 4 months. I have found Rob Hoffman to be a successful trader who has / will go out of his way to teach his techniques / setups to his 'student family'. This is also true of John Carter and Hubert Senters.

Incidentally, I also first heard of Robert through the TTM's 3 day free webinar to intorduce Rob Hoffman. I had NO problems logging in every day.

Before Hoffman was associated with TTM he had about 200 room members, many of whom were with him for years. They have his cell phone number. Most are experienced traders. They were (are) scattered around the world. After normal room hours if they saw a Hoffman-style trade developing they'd text Hoffman and he'd trade. By having a worldwide set of watchers, reviewing a number of instruments, he effectively had (has) a very sophisticated scanner running 24 hours a day. His setups are all high probability and occur relatively infrequently in any single instrument. However, because of his smart human "scanner" he sees many more trade opportunities than an individual trader would. Thus, he can trade relatively frequently. He trades only futures like 6B, 6E, 6J, CL, GC, NG, and TF. He hates the ES. He generally starts with a single contract but does scale-in when a position moves against him. He can and does scale rather significantly (say 200 - 500 contracts) the further the position goes against him. He trades trend and counter-trend, but generally on pull-backs.

Since his association with TTM he has been trading less frequently (getting into a position, not necessarily entering fewer orders). I think that the 900 or so room members he now has coat-tail his trades (and in my opinion often front-run him). I think this has affected the markets he trades to some degree and does not allow him to enter as often as he used to. It also limits his profits as he is forced to take smaller gains. He is exceedingly conservative and is rarely in a trade for more than 15 minutes. His room is good for learning price action, but unless you can truly devote nearly full-time to it, you'll probably spend more on the room than you make if you have a small account. You cannot follow his trades without a six figure account. However, in my opinion, one three month sign-up, if you can be in the room daily from 8:15 AM to Noon, Eastern, is worth the $800. You will definitely learn about price action and S/R levels, They also provide 32 hours worth of videos when you sign-up. They haven't attempted to sell any "indicators" - yet. He does show two proprietary indicators on his screens, but he primarily uses moving averages and pivots, none of which are proprietary. It is my belief that they will push the indicators once Thinkorswim and Infinity have them ready on their charting platforms. They seem to be getting into some type of marketing deal with TOS and currently push new students to Infinity as a broker.

The "struggling trader" benefits from learning his techniques and adapting them to their own use. Well before entering his trades he discusses what he is looking for. He also rates them on a conservative to aggressive scale. Conservative meaning a very high probability that no scaling is expected, aggressive meaning that scaling will almost certainly be needed. During the trade he explains what he is doing. After the trade (or non-trade if he did not get in) he analyzes what happened. I haven't counted but if he has used his proprietary indicators (there are two) once in 50 trades, that is a high number. If you want to mirror his trades with a small account you can do so on his conservative trades. For the rest you look and learn.

As to being subject to marketing from outside brokers - Hoffman has used Infinity for many years. He uses an Infinity DOM (ladder) to trade with. Many people joining his room, especially stock traders, have never seen a DOM. They ask what he is doing. He explains and directs them to a two hour video he made on how to use its features. Infinity makes the DOM available as a live data simulator to customers and non-customers. Infinity is a reputable broker (not mine), what's wrong with Hoffman having a deal with them?

About TOS - I said that TTM seems to be getting into some type of marketing deal. I have no real information on what it will be. I can conjecture. Tradestation, TTM's preferred platform at this time, is very expensive, both from a platform and data perspective. It has also been rather unreliable lately. TOS is the opposite. TOS has always made all its stuff available for free, including market data. TOS' futures execution is\was very poor. TOS was founded by options traders and grew hugely during the great options growth period. Now they are working on getting up to speed in the retail futures world. If you have a TOS account you'll get all TTM's (Hoffman's +) proprietary indicators "free". TOS pays for them, you pay via your commissions. You can negotiate commissions with Infinity but they are not cheap for a low volume trader. If TOS matches Infinity in execution and you get the indicators for no additional cost where would you go?

You said "to me, this isn't much help." Well you say you are successful so you probably wouldn't benefit. However, someone who needs help might get it if they can truly devote three months to the room. The purpose of my post was to provide information in an objective manner, not tout the room.

that's $120,000 per year of pure NO RISK profit.

Why would he surrender that to TTM ?!?!?!

Because 900 members @ $260/mo = $2,808,000 year risk free (divided by three partners - Carter/Senters/Hoffman. It took TTM close to two years to get Hoffman to join them.

He trades a real account - you can see his orders appear in the DOM when he starts putting in size. I'm new here but I've been a poster on ET for many years.

Because 900 members @ $260/mo = $2,808,000 year risk free (divided by three partners - Carter/Senters/Hoffman. It took TTM close to two years to get Hoffman to join them.

 

He trades a real account - you can see his orders appear in the DOM when he starts putting in size. I'm new here but I've been a poster on ET for many years.

a risk free trade and a win-win situation for the trio, smart business man they are.

I've watched him trade, and you do need a six figure or maybe even 7 figure account to trade with him.

In a webinar he took a long trade in the ES, and it immediately went against him, he started with one contract, then added 4 as price went against him. Price continued to fall, so he added 8, price continued to fall and added some more....fell again, so he added some more. Until finally, with 60+ contracts, price bounced and he took partial profits at 1 tick and the rest at 2 ticks. So he managed to end up with a gross profit of around $1500. At one point he had an unrealized loss of over $4500, before price finally bounced.

That's probably why he hasn't lost since January. If you have a big account, scale in on losers and take profits at 1-4 ticks, you could probably enjoy a winning streak like that as well.

Yep, the feedback confirms it...it's nothing but a 300 year old Martingale strategy. I'd lay dimes to donuts that Hoffman isn't even aware he's deploying a martingale. That being the case, then he's certainly ain't going to like hearing the following cold, hard reality:

Using a martingale betting strategy is a good example of a Taleb distribution - the gambler usually wins a small net reward, thus appearing to have a sound strategy. However, the gambler's expected value does indeed remain zero because the small probability that he will suffer a catastrophic loss exactly balances with his expected gain. Players (traders) using the Martingale system do not have any long-term mathematical advantage over any other betting system or even randomly placed bets.

He's simply benefited from the characteristics of trending markets that have been in play over the purported period in which he "hasn't had a losing day." I'm afraid he's deluded himself that he really is a professional trader with a definite edge. There's no question he'll end up with a losing day...a day in which he fires 6, 7 even 8 or more times and yet a bailout never materializes. It's going to be spectacular. And I don't mean that in cruel, Schadenfreude kind of way. This story has been played to the same tune thousands and thousands of times. And it will again, longer after Hoffman's interlude. "While history does not repeat itself, it does rhyme." -- Twain

Blowfish,

Isn't that funny...we were writing essentially the same posts at the same time. Great minds... :o

.. There's no question he'll end up with a losing day...a day in which he fires 6, 7 even 8 or more times and yet a bailout never materializes. ..

not, if you filter it with time of day, day of week, multiple time frame confirmation and bid/ask volume.