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Found 63 results

  1. This stock isn't going to be the next big mover like Apple (AAPL) was in its hay-day, but it has formed a bottom and signaled the start of a move higher last week. Bottoming formations take time and typically have multiple retests of prior lows, breakdown failures (BDF) and false starts. One signal that has had a high degree of not being a false start coming out of a base is the Bullish Wide Range Bar (+WRB) on increasing volume. After falling lower with virtually no bounces at all in 2011, Corning Inc. (GLW) began to form a bottom. Like most bottoming formations GLW had its retests, failed attempts to move higher, (none ever cleared any prior highs) and a breakdown failure that was retested. Notice after the move up from that retest GLW based sideways at resistance. Pristine Tip: Basing at resistance after a move up signals buyers absorbing the supply and bullish. Last week, GLW formed a +WRB with increasing volume and closed above its recent resistance area. Look further to the left and you will see other large green candles, some even with an increase in volume, but none of them cleared prior highs. Those prior highs still have to be overcome; however, the price action that has occurred after them suggests that is going to happen. By putting together the parts of the overall price action that has occurred we have the making of a bottom and bullish signal. I could have put a few indicators on the chart to show you how they are becoming bullish and signaling a move higher also. Most likely would create a belief in those indicators as a reliable way of determining a bottom. In time, you would be moving on to the next indicator someone else used. This is the cycle most go through forever and never understand how to read the interaction between buyers (demand) and sellers (supply). Bottoms form in different ways, but if you learn to read the price action the way I've explained, you will be able to determine when that is happened. Whether you trade stocks, commodities, currencies or the market indices learn to read the price action, not indicators that attempt to read the price action for you. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  2. Pristine Trained Traders (PTT) whether Core Trading, Swing Trading, or Day Trading are "Pattern Traders." Each Pristine pattern is clearly defined and is taught with an understanding of not only the pattern, but also what the pattern communicates about those that created it. Most learn candlestick patterns and their names, which is elementary. Additionally, because the names define those patterns as bullish or bearish they can be completely misleading, wrong and result in losses. Here's one. In the above chart of Sandisk Corp. (SNDK), the combination of the last two candles is what is called a Bullish Harami. Any candlestick scanner software will mark it as such. The pattern is one in which a large red candlestick is followed by a smaller candlestick whose body is located within the lower range of the larger body. Obviously, the two candles meet that definition, but there is nothing bullish about them to an educated chart reader. To understand this from candlestick terms, the Bullish Harami views the large red candle range that is followed by a small candle range as the bulls taking control. While the selling pressure has eased for the moment, this pattern cannot be construed as bulls taking control. What's happened for the moment is that the sellers are taking a breather after crushing those bullish and will return. Supply clearly overcoming demand. SNDK was clearly in a strong uptrend and in an uptrend like this price either pullbacks to Minor Support (mS) or "creates support" during corrections. What they don't do is slice through Major Support (MS) like it isn't there at all. That is what SNDK did and it is a bearish event that is in no way bullish. What typically happens next is the pattern will continue lower if prices break under the low of the last green candle; a 123 continuation pattern. They may consolidate a bit longer under or slightly above the area that was MS, so it is possible to trade above the high of the green candle. That would not be a confirmed 123 pattern; it would develop into a slightly different continuation pattern. To understand what is happening let's take a look at an intra-day chart. Wide Range Bars (WRB) like the one that occurred in SNDK on Thursday (the #1 bar) are multiple smaller bars moving in one direction with strong momentum intra-day. The rapid price movement lower leaves little to no areas of consolidation or retracements. Without those areas to use as tradable reference points to sell into, we have what I refer to as a "Price VOID." After a period without a retracement (continued supply) a base forms intra-day and a narrow inside bar (the #2 bar) on the daily time frame. This is "creating a new area of resistance where there was none. If prices continue lower on the next bar (#3 bar), we would then have a confirmed 123 pattern. What I have explained above it a basic understanding of the 123 continuation pattern and used SNDK as an example to make the point that candlestick pattern names can be very misleading. That being said, there is a higher level of understanding for the use of the 123 pattern. For example, view the weekly chart of the stock EOG Resources Inc. Symbol (EOG). It's not a 123 pattern yet because the #2 bar has not formed yet, it may this week. However, you will see a large red candle breaking below a base. While SNDK broke below a base of MS, it started its move lower from a pivot high. See the difference? Both patterns signal lower prices, but these differences are what the PPT takes note of. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  3. There is a common sequence of events that most traders go through during their development. This begins when many of the strategies that the trader is learning begin to come together and the trader begins to see the light. This can happen slowly with a cautious trader who has been paper trading or playing with a small share size. This can happen for aggressive traders as they start to have some big numbers in profit on some of their better days. However, while the trader begins to feel good, there usually are some lingering problems. While the light seems to be coming on, the account is not growing. It seems that every time some progress is being made, something happens that stops this progress and the account does not grow. It is 'one step forward, and two steps back'. If this is something that you can relate to, you are not alone. Spending time in this area to understand this process is very important to your development as a trader. If you review your records you will likely find several good trades throughout the week, and then a bad trade. One so bad it really sticks out. So bad, it erases all the hard work of the prior gains that you were so proud of. It may show up as several profitable days and then one day that erases all the prior gains. If this is the problem you are having, there is good news and bad. The good news is that you are now doing well with the 'technical part' of trading, and now have to deal with the psychological part. The bad news is that you are now doing well with the 'technical part' of trading, and now have to deal with the psychological part! Psychology is not an easy thing to deal with. The answer? First, it's self awareness. It's identifying the issues at hand as being psychological. Once we've admitted we have the problem, we must build and change our Psychology so that it is conducive to making money in the markets consistently and without fail. We teach many procedures that traders can take to help their progress at this point. Use a trading plan, keep detailed records, and track the strategies you use. Print charts of your trades to analyze your discipline, trading plan, and strategies. Make a plan to eliminate recurring problems. Use money management that prevents catastrophic trades or days. Once the trader eliminates their 'demons', they will likely see an improvement in their trading. Unfortunately, that is not the end of the psychological issues. Sometimes a trader uses all of the above tactics to make great improvements and even become successful, then gets 'over confident' with their new success and abandons everything that got them where they are. The road will always be full of new challenges, the traders that thrive have on ongoing plan and a commitment to patience and discipline. Jared Wesley Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap, Intra-Day and Swing Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  4. Good Morning All; Webster defines trading as: "to engage in frequent buying and selling of (as stocks or commodities) usually in search of quick profits". Notice the key words that even Webster knew to include, "...in search of..." making an implication to the fact that 'quick profits' are ever so illusive. This definition works fine if you are learning English as a second language. It gives you a notion of what the word means. It does not do justice to the process. I am going to take this article to share some ideas regarding what makes up the essence of trading. This is MY definition, you do not have to agree with it, but perhaps if you read it closely, it may open up some ideas. As a matter of fact, if you get any 'light bulbs', please email me. What is Trading? Part One of Two. Here is a definition to consider. Trading is "Using technical analysis to find a moment in time when the odds are in your favor. Then trading becomes a matter of your entry and management." In other words, it is having the KNOWLEDGE to know when the odds are in your favor, having the PATIENCE to wait for that moment, and then having the DISCIPLINE to handle the trade properly when it goes in your favor and properly when it goes against you." Now let us dissect a little. The opening words are 'using technical analysis'. Now, I know Webster's definition would let you trade with fundamentals, but not ours. At Pristine we feel there can be no argument that the opening words are not a misprint. We begin our search on the charts. This is the only place where we find truth and useful information in the markets. We do not find useful information from analysts, not from brokers, and not from accountants. Next comes 'a moment in time'. How long is a moment in time? It depends on your timeframe. For a core trader, that moment may be a day, for a swing trader several minutes, for a day or scalp trader, perhaps only a few seconds. The point is that there is only ONE moment when that exact trade is proper. Anything past that moment, and that trade is gone. Note, there may be other similar trades that occur later (such as buying the first pullback), but these are separate trades, each one of them will have their 'moment'. Next, when are 'the odds in your favor'? Well, that comes down to a matter of knowledge of technical patterns. Every so often, a stock will 'show its hand' and give away a key secret. It will let you in when a pattern develops that appears to be something other than just random noise. "Then it becomes a matter of entry and management". In other words, here is where the psychology comes into play. Once you learn how, the intelligence actually required to enter and manage a trade is minimal. The ability to do so is rare. This is where you become your own worst enemy, and this is the level that even the most astute traders seldom pass. Then notice the three capitalized words in the last part. KNOWLEDGE to know; PATIENCE to wait; and DISCIPLINE to handle. It sounds like the beginning of the Boy Scout Creed, but is a sentence you may want to cut out and put on your monitor. Next Monday we will examine some of the finer points, such as how many traders arrive at their own definitions. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc
  5. A breakout occurs when prices are able to clear a prior price area that has been a point of resistance in the past. But this doesn't mean all breakouts are the same. A breakout can occur after a decline that is followed by a period of whippy consolidation - that in time "tightens up." It can occur in one fast move from a low to and above a prior high. Not the ideal entry. It can also occur after a rally that is followed by a period of consolidation. Consolidations can happen in various forms, a base being the most widely used. Ideally, a tight base or a tightening in the last few bars occurs just prior to the breakout. Let's review some examples. In the above example, prices began to move up after a retest of the prior low and rallied all the way back up to the prior resistance area. The second to last candle that formed was a Topping Tail (TT) that signaled that sellers are focused on the prior high area - resistance. However, the next candle ignored the TT or in other words, buyers continued to step up regardless of the prior resistance area; a bullish sign. Prices could continue higher above the prior high and the supply of shares there. But without a small period of consolidation that would display buyers "absorbing" that supply, the likelihood of a retracement into the prior rally is high. Absorbing that supply reduces the possibility of a breakout failure. Some buyers that own shares from lower prices are going to sell at resistance after such a move. If prices move above the prior high without a stalling first, many more are going to cash in on the quick profit. Buying a breakout after a straight through rally above the prior high from a low can be done, but not without a stop-loss based on the move. The size of the stop and share-size must take into consideration the retracement that is more than likely to occur. In the above example, Prices rallied from a base after the signal bar formed. The initial move stalled for moment (shaded area) where the opens and closes of the three candles are overlapping. Pristine students know these overlapping opens and closes are a base on a lower time frame. This is where buyers will step up on a pullback, should that occur. That pullback did not occur here, rather buyers continued to step up above that level and form a new pivot low; a bullish sign. That low provided a new support reference point that was taken advantage of on the rested. The last bar engulfed the most recent candles, which is bullish and tells us that buyers are anticipating a breakout above the recent resistance. Large bullish engulfing bars like the one seen are typically followed by a smaller candle or candles. Typically does mean always, especially with this pattern since the bullish bar came after a period of consolidation and retest. In this example, prices broke out of a whippy consolidation and while there were clues that shares were being accumulated, there was no clear signal bar of the breakout occurring at that moment as there was in the prior example. This long period of uncertainty was followed by two Bullish Wide Range Bars (+WRB) signaled huge increase in buyers and higher prices. Fast, igniting moves like this create a void of price support below. However, this pattern (two +WRBs out of a consolidation) is less likely to correct by pulling back since the move began from a consolidation. It is also less likely for prices to base or consolidate for a long time for the same reason. The last candle in the pattern actually signals the low of the correction after the +WRBs and higher prices - a breakout - will follow soon. I have shown you the same stock Boeing (BA) in different time frames and explained how to interpret the price movement in those time frames. Traders using these time frames or others could potentially enter BA on signals that come together at the same time. This is what makes for explosive moves when they happen. However, each could also enter at different times depending how the patterns developed from here. For example, the traders using the weekly time frame could enter on the next candle's move above the high, which could happen immediately. To the trader on the hourly time frame that entry would not be ideal since there is no clear reference support level to use as stop-loss because of the straight up momentum move. Also, such a move would certainly setup other new entry points in the hourly time frame or other lower ones. All traders can have the same bias, but entering at very different times. All entries can be right for that trader in their time frame of choice with confirming price patterns. Pristine Tip: Intra-day traders use signals from higher time frames for a bias and then trade signals (price patterns) in a lower time frame in alignment with that bias. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc
  6. Good Morning All: As traders enter the arena, they are always full of questions. That is a good thing. As they progress, traders have even more questions. When they start to get good, they have even more questions. The trader always feels that they have good questions, and that their questions are also unique, things that only they would think of after the long journey they have been on. While it is true that all these questions are 'good', they are far from unique. As a matter of fact, it seems that we all end up on almost the same exact path, running into the same questions, in search of the same answerers. For a long time I have been known to say, "I have not heard an original question in years". I say it because it is true. We all go through the same process, which brings about the same questions. There was an exception once. A few years back, someone asked a question I actually had not heard before, and truthfully, have not heard since. Someone very simply asked, "How do you know when it is time to quit?" When to Quit Believe it not, this caught me by surprise. I am not use to 'new' questions. However, just as surprisingly, an answer came out of my mouth instantly, and without even thinking about it. I said, "When you can no longer do what it is that you know you need to do". Surprising answer? It actually is the perfect answer. When a new trader starts out trading, they usually try to begin with no education or with very little education. If this is the case, struggle will be expected and be the norm. The answer at this point is not to quit, but rather to get a quality education. At the next phase, traders take all this valuable information, and while they feel great about it, they often do not use it well. They do not have a plan to assimilate the information, so it is used inconsistently or not at all. They usually do not even know they are doing this, they 'think' they are doing things by the book. The answer at this point is not to quit, but rather to develop and use a trading plan. At the next phase, traders write a plan, but there are several problems. The plan may be just words on a paper done just to accomplish this step, but have little real meaning. Or it may have meaning to the trader, but has never been tested so may actually be an ineffective plan. Or, the trader may have a good plan, but is not following it. Traders rarely follow their plan, and rarely realize that they are not following it. The answer at this point is to check your plan, and follow up on your actions to see if you are following your plan. If the plan is not effective, change it and/or seek help to make it more effective. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  7. have an announcement to make. I'm happy to report that the never-ending search for that perfect indicator is alive and well. It has never ceased to amaze me how people can take epic journeys towards attaining such mythical tools. They spend countless hours and money in the pursuit of that perfect tool that will provide perfect buy and sell signals, no matter what stocks and market conditions they're dealing with. Let me state here and now that I have no prejudices against indicators. But in my journey as a trader (and many of you might agree with this), I've not been able to find any formula that can successfully produce buy and sell signals of quality, every single time in all market situations. But that's all right. Indicators aren't supposed to do that. In fact, it's our opinion, and that of many others I've had the pleasure to work with through the years, that the real purpose of indicators isn't that of providing reliable buy and sell signals. For that we have price patterns. Indicators (at least some of them) serve us well as "guides" that help us accelerate the analysis of a security's price behavior. Let's review this with an example. One of the most archaic uses of indicators I can remember occurs when someone looks at crossovers on moving averages as buy and sell signals. I would bet countless individuals have paid thousands of dollars for "trading systems" that exclusively use this concept. Any trader with some knowledge of the way moving averages work would instantly recognize that by the time such moving averages "crossover", the price action has already occurred. In some instances, such signals might provide a continuation of momentum, but in general, by the time you get the signal, it's too late. That's the typical use of an indicator as a "price predictor". We're not in this business looking to predict. Our goal is to analyze opportunities, evaluate odds, and manage our trades. For us, a better and more objective use of moving averages is as trend following tools. Looking at a stock that presents a rising 20ma will quickly give us information about the trend of that stock, without having to look at 12 months of price data. Then, we will use price data to find reliable opportunities for trading. So, the next time you look at a chart that includes your favorite indicator, try to use the information provided by it in such a way that helps you to evaluate the securities trend, strength, volatility and velocity. Don't try to use it to predict prices. In this way, you're bringing a level of objectivity to your trading that will serve you well through the years. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  8. Market analysis is in important part of our everyday activity. Pristine Trained Traders (PTT's) are taught to use our renowned Pristine Market Analysis techniques, which advocate a macro-to-micro approach. This means analyzing the market and internals first, then doing the same with the diverse sectors contained in your universe, and ultimately performing the same analysis on individual stocks. This ensures that you're trading in the same direction of the markets, and not against them. One important part of this process is sector analysis. This analysis allows the PTT to quickly identify potential trading opportunities in an individual sector of the economy. It's a well-known fact that institutions move their funds from one sector to the next rather than from an individual stock to another. This is called Sector Rotation. Sometimes, this rotation occurs because money is moving from assets perceived to be more risky (e.g. Tech Stocks) to assets perceived to be less so (e.g. Gold) and vice versa. But this rotation isn't always intended to be protective in nature. Institutions tend to have a "flavor of the month" approach, where they lock on a sector of interest, and direct all their efforts to invest their funds and sell to their clients the idea of investing in such sectors. This creates an avalanche of funds getting into or out of any given sector, as most institutions will play the same game in order to avoid falling behind the "average" performance of its competitors. This rotation effect caused by funds being allocated to or from any specific sector will create price movements that oftentimes will be presented as a Stage 2 (Uptrend) or a Stage 4 (Downtrend) in those sectors, as measured by the different sector indexes that exist, allowing for tradable opportunities for the educated PTT. This is nothing new, as the "Sector Trading Tools and Tactics" we teach in our seminars let you trade in the same direction of most institutional traders and market makers. Here are just but a few different ways in which a PTT can use sector analysis: As a means to quickly search for trading opportunities in stocks within the sector. As a benchmark with which to measure Relative Strength and Weakness. As a trading opportunity by using sector following securities. Let's briefly delve into each of these categories. Sector Analysis as a means to quickly search for trading opportunities in stocks within the sector. One very simple and quick way in which the PTT looks for and finds tradable opportunities is by looking at the several sector indexes in his "universe". These indexes, being a basket of the different securities that conform to a given sector, will often show recognizable Pristine Setups (taught in our TPM and ATS seminars) that are formed because many stocks in that given sector have formed such patterns. Thus, a Pristine Buy Setup (PBS) in a daily chart of the $BTK.X (Biotechnology Index) should produce several stocks in that sector that show similar price patterns. In this way, the PTT can quickly focus on opportunity, by analyzing the macro list of sector indexes, and then finding the best setups within that sector. Sector Analysis as a benchmark with which to measure Relative Strength and Weakness. Within any given sector index, some securities will outperform the index and some will under-perform it. This is only natural, as you'll always have leaders and laggards in any sector. The PTT uses "Relative Strength Analysis", taught in our famed ATS Seminar, to evaluate the performance of individual securities within any given sector, vs. their sector index, in order to determine which patterns present the best odds of a successful trade. Sector Analysis as a trading opportunity by using sector following securities. As a trader, you have several options to try to benefit from a sector move. One that is becoming more widely used is trading "Index Tracking" Securities. These securities (Holdrs, ETF's and I-Shares), traded mainly in the American Stock Exchange (AMEX), are trusts that hold a basket of stocks that mimic the sector index composition. Some of them are liquid enough even for Micro-Trading, even though most are better suited for swing and core trading. Trading these securities is an efficient way to do Core Trading, as it allows you to participate in any sector's potential multi-week move, while reducing the risk of any individual stock in that sector gapping down or moving against your position. Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Intra-Day and Swing Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  9. Good Morning All: If the title sounds a little confusing, it was meant to. The issue to be discussed today is not just 'when' to trade. There are trades that can be done any time the market is trading. That does not mean that you should be trading all day long, it just means that the times you pick to trade can be any time, IF you know what to trade. This series of articles discusses this issue, and are geared toward the 'intraday trader', not the swing trader. That was the opening paragraph the last two parts of this three part series. Last week we looked at the key morning reversal times, and began to discuss lunch. Today we will discuss lunch, and the afternoon reversals. When to Trade What, Part 3 of 3 Lunch: Lunch can be a little tricky to pin point on some days. At its broadest moments, lunch begins after the 11:15 reversal time (remember, all times are ET, market time) ends the move, and can last all the way until the 2:15 reversal time. This is what typically happens on sloppy, non-trending days. On nice trending days, lunch may be as short as 12:00 until the 1:30 reversal time. The most precise reversal times over the lunch period are 1:30, and 2:15 (2:15-2:30 range on most days). Below is a typical day. Notice a few things, and then look at the charts for yourself. These revelations will save you, and make you money, everyday. 1. Note the range (the fluctuations from the highs to the lows), or volatility, before lunch, after lunch, and during lunch. Note again, from last week, the power of the 10:00 and 10:30 reversals 2. Note the volume during lunch. 3. Note the last playable event was at 11:30, and the next one was at 2.15. 4. Note the narrow bodies and tails during lunch; you do not see the rest of the day. These are the reasons traders get frustrated at lunch, real moves rarely happen on the market or typical stocks. And After Lunch: After 1:30 comes the 2:15 time. If 1:30 does not begin the afternoon move, then 2:15 will. If 1:30 does produce a big move, then 2:15 is often the target. The last times of the day are 3:00, when the bond market closes and 3:30, which usually provides the high or low into the close to end trading for the day, as the last 30 minutes is often sloppy. Here is one more chart. Here we see another typical day. You will find, when you study this, there are only a small handful of patterns that happen over and over again. Here we have a retest at '1' that holds for the end of lunch. The first playable move is the 2.15 reversal, and finally the 3.30 reversal ends the pull back for a rally into close. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  10. You find a near perfect Pristine Buy Setup, meeting all the requirements of your trading plan, and devise a plan to trade it. Now the stock is at your established entry price, you click on the buy button, and it's done! You just bought yourself a position in XYZ. Whatever outcome is produced by this position should be considered your responsibility. Both a positive or negative one. But this isn't always the case. Our culture has suffered from a loss of the personal responsibility values that built it. These days, an individual walks into a McDonalds and after getting fat due to the excessive consumption of burgers, sues the company for making him fat. It's the old "the devil made me do it" rationale. But we have to understand that every action, even the decision not to-do something, is made by the individual out of free will. When an individual considers taking some course of action, he will compare the perceived positives and negatives of taking such action, and if the positives outweigh the negatives, he'll proceed with it. This same rationale can be applied to trading. When you take a position, it should be because the probable positives of taking such a position outweigh the potential negatives (High odds). A proper trading plan should see to this. Novice traders, never seriously considering the negative potential of any trade, will base their decisions on a constant bias towards the positives. When your stop loss price is hit, you and only you are responsible for the outcome of your trade. It's easy to blame specialists, market makers, or other dastardly subjects for your loss. But it was you in the first place that decided to buy/sell short that position. You should have considered all the probable positives and negatives of taking such a trade. Is this a NYSE stock? Learn about the execution conditions that exist in listed stocks before taking that trade. Is Bernanke speaking while you plan to hold on to your position? It's your responsibility to know all possible implications. At the end of the day, you take a position, and it either moves in your favor, or against you. If you're right, you'll make money; if wrong you'll lose some. In either case, you and only you will be responsible for the outcome. Understanding this is a step towards professionalism. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Instructor and Traders Coach
  11. Good Morning All: If the title sounds a little confusing, it was meant to. The issue to be discussed today, is not just 'when' to trade. There are trades that can be done any time the market is trading. That does not mean that you should be trading all day long, it just means that the times you pick to trade can be any time, IF you know what to trade. That is the point of this article. When to Trade What, Part 2 of 3 That was the opening paragraph last week in part one of this three part series. In the last letter we looked at some 'pre market' organization, and we discussed the first reversal time, 9:35 (all times are Eastern, New York, 'market' time). We then mentioned the next two reversal times, 10:00 and 10:30. This week, we will talk about those two key times, as well as the beginning of the 'lunch hour'. Next week we will conclude with part three. There are 9 micro reversal times. 4-5 of them are major and critical. Also, understanding HOW to use them and HOW they interact is imperative. Let's look at the morning reversals, 10:00 and 10:30: There is also a minor reversal time at 11:15. It is simply amazing how many traders do not use the reversal times to their advantage. This probably spawns from the fact that many traders do not even know or understand them. If you are one of those traders, you are going to learn something that will change your trading career in the next couple of paragraphs. A picture says a thousand words, so look at the charts below. These are the three five-minute charts of the QQQ from the last three days, period. We generally give the reversal times a window of 5-10 minutes on each side. The key is when the Pristine Buy or Sell setup occurs, at the approximate time. The yellow 'stars' show the two major reversal times we are discussing. They are all happening 'right on the money', though they do not need to in order to be effective. Note two things. First, the second chart is slightly off on the 10.30 reversal, but the 10.30 low was only pennies off the low of the day, and again, it is the buy setup that happens once in that area that matters. Second, these charts are simply that last three days. They are not the result of a special search. If you continue this exercise on your own, you will be astonished. Most other days are even more amazing. Note, that the 10:00 and 10:30 major reversal times form a reversal, every time, and one of them usually sets the high or low for the day, or at least for the morning. This is typical of what you will find every day. Again, no effort was used to find these charts for this article. The only time this is not 'amazing' is when we have 'power trend' days that do not really reverse at all, and that is because the very definition of a power trend day is that the market carries a trend one way all day. Sometimes these days don not begin until the 10:00 reversal time puts in the first reversal, but these power trend days are rare; usually one every other month. Don't believe it? No problem, go take a look for yourself. Go print out a bunch of five-minute charts. Print them from the market, the futures, or your favorite stocks. Print some from this week, some from a month ago, some from two months ago. It does not matter. Then go through and draw vertical lines at 10:00, and 10:30. You will be shocked and amazed that virtually every day, you have drawn lines though the high and low of the day, or at least the high, until much later in the day. And you thought trading was tough. The next time period to look at is the beginning and ending of lunch. These times can change a little depending on if the market is 'trending' or choppy. Generally, the last true move ends around 12:20. We often count lunch as starting at 12:00, but if there is a strong trend in place, it may follow through until 12:30. On strong trend days, the last reversal around 1:30 often sets the trend back in place. If it is a choppy market (80% of the time), lunch may stay choppy, until the 2:15 reversal time. This one is usually in stone, and the whole lunch concept, as well as the afternoon reversals, will be discussed next week. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  12. rading is one of the most fascinating, challenging and rewarding businesses on earth. Very simply, we are looking for price patterns that have high odds of follow through, then we look to the market internals to see if it makes sense to enter a bullish or bearish trade and, if acceptable, we calculate share size per our Trading Plan, enter the trade and then enter "management mode." When looking for stocks to trade in a particular sector, it is best to trade the cleanest patterns that are showing relative strength for longs (relative weakness for shorts). There are various ways to determine strength. Some include comparing the stock to the sector, comparing it to market internals, or comparing it to itself. For example, if the SMH (semi-conductor holders trust) has a bullish daily, gapped up, and is a Pristine Buy Setup™ (PBS) into the gap fill on the 5-Min. chart, but AMAT also has a bullish daily, also gapped up, but is basing at the high into the first reversal and did not pull back, it is showing relative strength to the market. Now assume the S&P Futures pulled into the gap fill on the 5-Min. chart (and the TICK fell and the TRIN rose), but both SMH and AMAT also have a bullish daily, also gapped up, but are basing at the high into the first reversal and did not pull back, they are showing relative strength to the market internals. Finally, many novice traders believe that a stock's Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) measures relative strength to the market. Remember, the RSI, like any oscillator, is a derivative of price and volume; therefore, all compare stock action to itself, not to a broader market index. So RSI measures the momentum of a stock's price action compared to its price "x" periods ago (default is 14 days), but to the Pristine Trained Trader, offers no benefit that is otherwise not readily ascertainable from price action. In addition to watching my long and short lists for possible entries, I watch two market minders looking for relative strength or weakness. If the market gaps down, and I am considering fading the open and looking long, I see what is showing relative strength compared to the broader market. Similarly, if the market gaps up and I am looking for a short, I will focus on the weak stocks, which are those down at the open that did not participate in the market's gap strength. (Note that this is a short-term counter trend strategy that is applied only when the market internals suggest it. In fact, we might actually be buying the stocks that gap up with the broader market, on pullbacks into the first reversal period, or over a 30-Min. high. Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap and Intra-Day Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  13. In this Chart of the Week (COTW), I want to show why one trader who is focused on swing-trading would never consider buying and another that is focused on intra-day trading would. However, both traders would initially view the chart as bearish and both may have it on their watch list for a short sale the next day. In the above daily chart, we see a stock that has broken down under Major Support (MS), the 20-MA and the 200-MA. While the stock did form a Bottom Tail (BT) on the break lower, it never was able to trade above that high for several days. Over those days of basing, the stock formed two Topping Tails (TT) as buyers tried to get the stock above the 200-MA. With the formation of the last TT the price action did suggest that the stock would move lower and possibly the next trading day. For that reason, both the swing-trader and the intra-day trader would have a bearish view. Based on what had occurred at this point, the swing-trader would never consider buying stock with a chart like this the next day regardless of what it did at the open. However, the intraday trader having an understanding of gaps, multiple time frames as well as how bearish traders have become trapped would be willing to buy the stock in the short-term under the right conditions. Let's look at what it at the open and did happen. Rather than move lower at the open, the stock gapped up a small amount, rallied and closed above prior resistance and the daily TTs. To the intra-day trader this is a clear breakout with a Tradable Void above. It's a great long setup for that trader! The next step for the intra-day trader is to find an entry, which could be a Pristine Buy Setup (PBS) a Pristine Breakout (PBO) or any bullish pattern confirming the bullish breakout and signal of higher prices that should come. A textbook PBS formed at the 10 o'clock reversal period signaling that buyers did in fact step up on the pull back and prices were ready to move higher. While we cannot know for sure that prices would move as high as they did, there was the tradable void, so there was nothing to stop that from happening. Once the gap was filled, the odds increased that the stock would retrace then. Above is the completed daily chart of Altera Corp. (ALTR) as of the close on Friday February 1st. It's still not attractive for a swing trade, and at this point it's not of any interest to an intra-day trader either. It had a good day on Friday, but now the current pattern does not suggest good odds in either direction for either trader since the prior bearish daily price action has been neutralized and the gap filled. All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  14. Good Morning All: Over the years, Pristine has become a pillar in the education field. Pristine began training ordinary people about the financial industry in 1994 and has a perfect reputation for quality and honesty in presenting the best material, with the best instructors, and with the follow-up to ensure students have every opportunity to go on to make money. People new to trading or investing may not appreciate all that goes into that. In an industry that sometimes gets a bad name by companies that are dishonest and offer sub-par training, it leaves many people asking the question: "Who can actually do this thing we call trading or investing?" Who Can Do This? Let's get right to the answer. Anyone. Anyone can do this. Not everyone, or everyone would, but anyone can, and relatively simply. Here is what CANNOT be done. We, as well as anyone else, cannot show you a magical technical indicator that makes money. There is no such thing. If there were, it is all I would use. We cannot show you a kindergarten system that makes this as simple as "red light - green light". These claims are insulting to professional traders all around the world. We cannot guarantee that any ONE person will be successful at this. I know of no college that guarantees their graduates will be successful. The college supplies the tools, but the student must put them to use. Here is what we CAN do. We can supply you with the best education that gives you all the tools you need to make money in the market. It IS very doable. Here are some interesting things you should know. 1. You do NOT need any special background. In fact, the less background you have in the financial world the better. I have always said that my favorite student would be a 13-15 year old teen-ager who likes video games. 2. You do NOT need an advanced education. "The world is full of educated derelicts" is a famous quote form Herbert Hoover. The complexity of what is needed to make money can be learned by junior high students. Many people make money shortly after our two day seminar. 3. Once you learn the method, you do not need to spend time dissecting or even listening to financial reports, earnings statements, or news stories. They are all irrelevant. 4. You do not have to compete with big boys on Wall Street. Many places teach the wrong methods. We like to ride the coat tails of big money, not compete against them. There is no other way. 5. You can easily beat the big funds. Billions of dollars cannot be moved around quickly or efficiently. In fact, they are forced to resort to very passive long-term buy and hold strategies that have been proven to not work. 80% of funds underperform the market. The confusion arises because hucksters looking to make a quick buck make this look 'too' easy. People forget what 'trading' is. It is a profession. It is an occupation. And like any other, you don't buy your degree on line with a piece of software and you don't earn your degree reading a book or watching a single DVD. You do earn your degree buy getting educated by professionals, testing what you know, and making adjustments if you did not apply the information properly. This information is the same but everyone is different. Think of any university. The same information is taught to all. Some go on to be top-notch lawyers, doctors, and scientists making the highest salaries out there. Some do well, but are not the highest paid. Some don't make it. Can the ones that don't make it say that what they learned was incomplete? Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  15. Have you ever been excited about a new experience? Maybe heading to the golf course for the first time or going to the go-kart track to show your stuff? Do you remember the butterflies and excitement building inside as you near this new experience? It's common to have such exhilaration when a new experience arises. Just imagine with me for a moment, that you were going to have some weekend fun with the family at the go-kart track. As you seat yourself into the kart your smile is ear to ear. You feel the butterflies fluttering as you rev the gas getting ready for this experience. Prior to taking off, you glimpse over and notice your family giving you the thumbs up, chanting things like go dad, you can do it, you can take these guys, show them who's boss. Suddenly you realize your eyebrows are lowering, your smile moves to a determined grit and you now have something to prove. This is not a fish story about the one that got away; you have a live audience! This friendly little driving around the track has escalated to the Daytona 500, so it seems. You move onto the track with fierce determination and no experience I might add. That's ok, how hard can it be, I drive to and from work every day and have never had so much as a fender bender. You move around the track like you're the only one there and suddenly you get squeezed out and your kart slams into the tires. As if that is not enough, you get rear ended from another kart. That actually hurt. With pride on the line, you immediately get back into action only to have a similar experience. This one could leave a mark! Now intimated by this new adventure and in a great deal of pain, you finish your ride and force your smile every time you near your rooting family with the bulk of your thoughts concentrating on when this ride will be over. I share this story with you to press upon you how most people enter the trading environment. Excitement turns into determination which often leads to pain. If you FIRE before you AIM that is... The bulk of new traders will embark on their new career this year that is similar to the story above. They fail to practice, and get kicked around and 90% of them will not exist as a trader in 12 months. They have told all of their friends about their new career and when they ask how things are going they shrug it off with "The market is not right yet" or some other excuse that is just as poor as the first one. You see, people that want to start trading to offset their income or potentially make a career of it have no business entering the trading environment until they get education and practice. The title of this article is how most people attempt everything. They get READY and FIRE before they know what they are really AIMING for. Some ventures may be forgiving but Wall Street takes no prisoners. It will under-handedly seek out anyone with little to no experience or practice and make sure you end up in the tires. Do not let that happen to you! Do you walk over to the fireplace and ask it "If you give me some heat, I will give you some wood"? No, it doesn't work that way, nor does trading, and you absolutely have to get education FIRST. Many people only have one shot at this, burn through your capital before education and you may never get the opportunity to share what is one of the greatest businesses on the planet. I mean think about it, a business that you can work anywhere in the world with just a laptop and a internet connection; a business with no employees, no overhead, no inventory, etc... etc... Most businesses exist for 11 months to pay the bills and employees, only to make a profit in just one of the twelve months. Your trading career should not be taken lightly especially when you think about what you have your hands on. You should not open a business without education and training, so why would trading be any different? Trading potentially could give you more freedom and enjoyment than you could possibly imagine if you take the right steps to succeed. If you were to open a franchise do you think you could do that before you spend the required time practicing and learning the proper procedures? Not a chance! Seek education, practice and have the desire to win, so you don't get "pushed into the tires". Get READY - AIM -FIRE!!!! Traders' Tip: Pristine education is the single most proactive ingredient one could learn prior to risking capitol in trading. The Pristine Method has been proven time and time again as a technical approach that has been developed and time-tested over the past 18 years by Pristine. This dynamic trading methodology is now used by professional and semi-professional traders all over the world. Make sure to register for any of our other FREE programs that interest you the most. I would be happy to see you join us and to answer any questions you may have. Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap, Intra-Day and Swing Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  16. If you're not aware that the markets have been going higher and nearing all-time highs, you must not have a television. Finally, the media has noticed the bull market that started from the 2009 crash low. Now, that drop and low was about as ugly as it gets and of course, we really didn't know that it was 'the low" until a bit later. However, the markets have been going up for just over four years and the media is just getting excited! The saying, "Better late than never" doesn't always apply when it comes to the markets. With the markets late typically means losing money, but can it be different this time? I am seeing some not so obvious signs of change that could be signaling that this market has a way to go in the long-term. There has been a huge amount of money pumped into the system to hold off recession, deflation and bankruptcy of countries. We can logically assume that the equity markets believe that it has worked since most are at or nearing all-time highs. However, the fact that interest rates have been in a decline for years tells us there has been little demand for that money for business investment (higher risk, higher rewards). Rather, a lot of that money has been going buying bonds (low risk, low reward), which causes interest rates to drop. During times of economic expansion the demand for money increases (borrowing) and interest rates rise. The charts are starting to point to this. The above being said, long-term interest rates have been in an overall downtrend since the early 1980s. However, during times of an improving economy those interest rates have risen within that very long-term downtrend. So interest rate movement up and down is relative to this. The above chart is of the ETF symbol TBT, which is for being short bonds prices and interest rates moving higher. In it, we see a classic pre-bottom free-fall drop on high volume, a lower low with less momentum and low volume and a retest of the low with an increase of volume. The next step would be to move above the most recent highs. As explained above, a move higher in interest rates suggests a pickup in business and the economy. If that is the case, then stocks that are affected by that like industrial metals would have been under performing and should now move up with interest rates. Let's look. The chart of United States Steel Corp. (X) looks very much like the chart of TBT. Not surprising. If interest rates move up (bond prices down), I think that X should have a minimum potential to move to the 30 area. If the economy is at a significant turning point, and I hope it is for all of us, the potential for X is much higher. You now know the inter-market analysis to monitor. Alcoa Inc. (AA) is a manufacture of aluminum, which is used in planes, cars, construction and even the foil that you use in the kitchen. As you can see, its chart is also similar to that of TBT and X. If one moves higher they all should. These bottoming patterns do take time and when they move higher they typically don't do it with a lot of speed until others take notice of the movement. Especially, the media that are just starting to realize that the markets are really going up! This not so obvious sign of change is encouraging after such an extended period of bad economic times. It's early in the turn and false starts (bottoms) do happen. Right now the charts are pointing to better times for everyone and the potential for more people to make money. In the prior Chart of the Week (COTW), I showed you a simple approach to market timing. It has not given a sell signal, but don't stop monitoring those internal gauges. It may take the market blasting higher to get those option traders all-in. If we get that sell signal, remember this is a short-term signal. We will need more information for any long-term change of bias and with what I have explained in this COTW, that change isn't likely should TBT, X and AA move higher. PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched! All the best, Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  17. Trading today is more popular than ever. Countless individuals flock each year to the markets, hoping to make large amounts of money, many attracted by misleading commercials promising simplicity and easy access to riches. Many of these aspiring traders fail. In as much as we would like to think that each individual commits different and very particular mistakes in his quest for success, my experience as both a trader and Pristine Certified Trainer (PCT) has shown me that most traders typically fall prey to the same problems and mistakes. The following are just but some of the typical ones: Lack of a Trading Plan. Most traders lack a well conceived plan to trade the markets, and most mistakes committed by them can be summed up in this category. The lack of a decent plan means that the trader won't know which "events" to focus on, the rules to trade those events, money management rules, etc. Typical mistakes such as not taking stops and overtrading can be attributed to this problem. Lack of Confidence in his Tactics. Traders will only execute effectively if they're confident about the odds of any particular tactic. Learning it in a seminar isn't enough. You have to test it yourself, and reach a level of comfort and confidence that will allow you to execute with precision. Trading Under Monetary Pressures. Since people think that this is an easy road to riches, many leave their jobs or expect to make an immediate living trading the markets. Nothing is more detrimental to your success as a trader than facing the pressure to perform. Now, traders are focused on money, instead of technique and this leads to "dollar counting" which is detrimental to a traders progress. Trading with Insufficient Capital. Undercapitalized traders face two typical problems. One is the fact that they'll tend to take positions that will utilize a big percentage of their accounts, which in turn might produce losses that will be more significant than they should be. This is another reason why traders don't take stops. Lack of Proper Technology or Too Much Reliance on Only Technology. Traders that lack the proper technology, either because of the fear of using advanced systems or lack of commitment to obtaining them as a necessary cost of doing business, face a debilitating disadvantage as they can't process information quickly enough, and as we all know, this is a business that deals with the rapid analysis of information. On the other hand, there are those that think that technology alone, without the proper training and method, can solve their problems. An aspiring trader with no method, who just relies only on technology, is operating at a huge disadvantage. KURT CAPRA Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  18. Good Morning All: If you are an experienced trader, you can skip reading this article. If you are new, or if you have been at this less than a year and not making money yet, you may want to read this. If you have been at it more than a year and are not making money, you probably will not read this. To a Handful of Traders Out There I have to accept the fact that there are very few people willing to recognize in the early stages of trading that they need an education. It should seem obvious, as it is the only acceptable route in any other high-paying profession. While I have to accept that fact, I do not really understand it. Having excepted it, I know that the next best thing we can do at Pristine is to make sure people stay under our wing until they are ready to advance their careers through a proper education. We want to make sure that you stay with us even if you have not yet made a commitment to be a full or part-time trader, or to manage your own long-term money. To do that we want to continuously improve you and your knowledge by offering a variety of ways to obtain great information for free. Every 6 to 8 weeks we do a seminar called "Online Trading Essentials". There is a nominal charge for it but if you are currently a Pristine student you can get it for free. If you are in the process of discussing a seminar with a counselor, you may also be able to get it free. Talk to your counselor. It is a great class that delivers four and a half hours of nonstop critical information about many of the topics that traders need to know about trading. Everything from advanced concepts about risk management and share sizing, down to what a level II screen is for, and how to use news and/or fundamental analysis in your trading. This is all information that is critical to know, yet on the other hand is too basic to actually be taught in our paid for seminars as they focus purely on technical or more advanced topics. In addition, we are introducing a new series of "Power Trading Workshops" that are designed to deliver more information and they come to you Monday through Thursday (some weeks may only be three days) at 4.15, just after the market closes. Some of these will have new topics that have not been discussed, and some will blend some old favorites and new twists. Naturally, we still have new people who want to know about Pristine and about some of what we teach, and that will be included in some of the topics as well. You can view the schedule for these on our homepage or in the e-mails that you receive. They are under the topic of either "Power Trading Workshops", or "Free Webinars". Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  19. Good Morning All: In the last issue, I gave you part three of a four part series. This series is a set of exact steps that will help you tremendously if you have the technical knowledge, but cannot seem to turn the corner on making good profits. There are four things that you can do that I feel will 'dramatically change your trading career'. The results will be immediate, every week, and this will be item number four. It should be stated again, that if you do not have the technical expertise, you are not at the level that these comments will help. If you do not know how to look at a chart, no amount of refining will help you. Where do you get this expertise? There is no better place than our famous Trading the Pristine Method Seminar. After a long time of working with many traders, one discovers that there are certain truths that cannot be denied. There are four things that are done so consistently wrong by new, and even fairly experienced traders, that each of these mistakes results in bad trades 90% of the time for most traders. If traders would simply follow these four rules, they would eliminate most of their losing trades. The fourth rule does not really fall into this "90%" category, but is perhaps the most important, and is the subject of today's discussion. Four Things That Will Change Your Trading Career: Part Four of Four It is time for the fourth and final rule of this series. As we have mentioned in the introductory paragraph of each of these four lessons, this is not really a 'new' rule. However, the first three rules are ineffective and worthless if you do not know the fourth rule. The fourth rule is to simply follow up to make sure that you are doing each of the first three rules properly. Now, DO NOT stop reading this and say, 'yea, yea, follow up, I know'. There is an exact procedure that must be followed. When this is followed, traders are always shocked and amazed at the results. 1. Print out the chart for the relevant time frame(s) for the trade you took. If it was a five minute Pristine Buy Setup, print the five minute chart. 2. Write the name of the strategy you played on the top of the chart. 3. Take a 'green' marker, and mark in the correct entry, stop, targets, and management, based on your trading plan. 4. Now take a 'red' marker, and mark in the actual entry and exits you had based on your trading records. 5. Now decide if the play you did was substantially correct according to your trading plan. If it was, write a 'good' on the top of the page. 6. If the play was not correct according to your plan, write a 'bad' on the top. 7. If the play was bad, put the reason why on top. Save these until the end of the week. Over the weekend, take all the 'good trades' and start a binder of good trades, saving the best examples of each of your strategies. We are very visual people, and learn best by pictures. Take all the 'bad' trades and categorize them by the reason they were bad. Take the number one mistake you committed that week, and do whatever necessary to resolve that problem the next week. Eliminate ONE mistake every week. Please keep a couple of important rules in mind. First of all, this process MUST be done at least 30 minutes AFTER the market closes. Traders often do not think properly when the market is open, and you will 'rubber stamp' any trade you do if you look at it soon after you close out the trade. The best case is to wait until that evening. Second, it is BEST to hand write on the chart. Print the chart, then use your own hand to write on the chart. Many like to use Power Point or other software, but the best learning will come from having all of your senses involved. If you must, it is better to do this on the computer than not at all, but try doing these by hand, as shown in the example above. This concludes a very important series of four lessons. If you are serious about your trading, see how well you currently do at these, and vow to follow them religiously for a week. You may be surprised. Closing Comments Even if you have not been following these four 'secrets', take the time to do this one. Print up some charts, and go through the procedure, even if you do not have good plan, or don't feel you even know what to look for. You will be shocked, and you will have a whole new perspective on the four things that were discussed over the last four weeks. I hope you have enjoyed this series of articles. Until next week, good trading. Paul Lange Vice President of Services Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  20. While there are many concepts and nuances to be learned to be a complete technical trader and/or investor, there are a few basic criteria that if followed can make making money easy or relatively easier. Of course, this requires having the patience and discipline to wait for these high probability setups to occur. Can you do it? I will show an example of what to look for. Then it's up to you. In the weekly chart of Google (GOOG), prices broke above price resistance with strong momentum. This was followed by the first pullback after that strength to Minor Support (mS). As a general rule, the first pullback to mS after a strong momentum break above resistance will always be buyable. This is based on the basic concept that resistance once broken will become support. This area of mS is where we know buyers will be. Now we wait to see the price action of that actually happening in this time frame and the daily time frame. This concept can be used in a combination of lower time frames as well. It also applies to any tradable instrument; that being Forex, E-minis, Commodities. The basics covered - Prices have made a strong move above price resistance and we wait for the first pullback to mS where buyers are. Then wait for confirming price action in that area. oving down to the daily time frame, GOOG was not looking bullish at all before the turn. However, realize that the lower time frame never looks bullish when the higher time frame is pulling back to mS. For example, if you saw the EUR/USD currency pair in a 60-min. uptrend that was pulling back to mS, the 5-min. time frame would be in a downtrend. The expectation is that the lower time frame is going to turn in the area of mS in the higher time frame. Now wait for confirming the price action in the lower time frame before taking a position. As GOOG moved into the mS area shown on the weekly time frame, the confirming price action began (in this time frame) with a gap higher and then a strong close into resistance. Here is where it gets interesting and it will become obvious if the big money buyers are continuing to step up. We want to see that big green bar's low and ideally its mid-point defended by the buyers. While the buy signal candle came five days later, it could have come after only two days. There is no set number and this is where our Bar by Bar analysis concept comes in to tell us when GOOG will move. Bar by Bar analysis combines each new bar's meaning within the context of our bigger picture analysis. One bar can be meaningless in of itself, but when combined with our bias and the other bars, it's a powerful concept. The basics covered - While our lower time frame is moving down, the higher time frame area of mS is where prices should produce the price action that confirms that area and reversal of some type happens. Reversals can happening in many ways, so do not be set on it having to happen in "your way." Once the action occurs find an entry signal using Bar by Bar analysis. I have shown you the basics of what to look for in those easy money situations using two time frames; I used the weekly and daily. We can also take that bias into the intra-day time frames as I explained above with EUR/USD, but it could be anything. Now, let's look at some detail that occurred on the 60-Min. of GOOG that showed the "early turn" and a couple of Pristine concepts to understand the price action of the turn. As GOOG was trending lower into the area of mS on the weekly time frame a 60-Min. bearish Wide Range Bar (-WRB) formed accompanied with a huge volume spike. That's a bearish event, but remember this was right into the weekly mS! That was followed by a stall and bullish Wide Range Bar (+WRB), that's a very bullish group of events that started the early turn. Pristine Tip: That 3-bar reversal was the Bottoming Tail (BT) on the daily time frame. The Advanced Candlestick reader understands how different arrangements of candles can mean the same thing in the same time frame and/or different time frames. Names of candlesticks are meaningless and are more likely to confuse traders that use them or worse by causing avoidable losses and/or missed opportunities. Once GOOG gapped up and ran higher a Pristine Price Void (PPV) was created. In other words, there was now no price support below for traders to bid at. Support would need to be "created" for traders to bid at. Creating support and resistance is a powerful concept used by Pristine Traded Traders (PTT) to see where the big money is entering prior to existing support or resistance. Pristine Tip: Strong upward price moves often do not pullback to support, they create it. With the bias from the time frames shown above, intra-day traders could move to lower time frames of their choice to find confirming buy setups to enter. At this point, this is still the case. Side note, while I have used a 20-MA on all time frames. It has no relevance to being actual support, resistance or the trend. It is simply a "visual aid" to speed the analysis once understood. PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched!!! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  21. As we near the end of the year, here is a look at the long-term to put the short-term gyrations in perspective. For the very bullish case, you want to see the markets consolidate at the top of the range. That is likely to be months. Pullbacks ideally hold the area of first support. A move to the area of second support makes the bullish case very questionable and would at least suggest a much longer period of consolidation. For the ultra-bearish, a clear break below last support, and tent-housing communities could be high-end living for many. All the best, PRISTINE - A Trading Style, Often Imitated, But NEVER Matched!!! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  22. Trading is one of the most fascinating, challenging and rewarding businesses on planet earth. But it perplexes me to hear the vast and varied vehement opinions from the bulls and bears in the media and elsewhere. Are they trying to talk themselves (and their followers) into being correct to save their ego - and wallet? Are they trying to become heroes by saying, in retrospect, that they "nailed" the market direction? (Note: you will only hear from that minority after the fact, with most disappearing into the night.) The Pristine Trained Trader (PTT) focuses on the only thing that matters: objective candlestick price and volume data. Period. Pristine President and CEO Greg Capra, confidently and succinctly states it this way: "It is what it is. You must react to what is happening in the moment, or you will be trading in the past, in a 'mirage'." Traders are bombarded daily with market opinion from a plethora of other traders, analysts, and commentators, all offering their opinions on stocks and market direction. And so many of these traders struggle with this deluge of information, trying often - in vain - to make an objective decision by processing massive amounts of subjective data. My approach is direct and simple: give me a compelling chart setup and sufficient liquidity, and I will trade anything that moves - just ask my students! In the bigger scheme of things, the source of the news is irrelevant to me, unless, of course, it gives me insight into other stocks or sector plays. The market offers tremendous opportunity for you to assert your views through money -- through your buy and sell orders. So when I hear these people touting their view and stocks, my immediate reaction is, "Blah, Blah, Blah. Just hit the mouse." Point your mouse to your order execution module in your trading platform and hit either the buy button or the sell button. That's it. If you think a financial instrument is going higher, buy it; if lower, short it. When all is said and done, price movement will dictate who made the correct choice. Unfortunately, the financial markets are designed for only the minority to win consistently -- not the majority. The uneducated public is unfortunately part of the latter group. I want to be buying when my technical analysis shows that demand is overtaking supply with the larger time frames on major support. When the stock becomes well known after a robust rally, good company news, and even becomes the cover story on some business or financial publication, that is the time to sell at the first sign of slowing momentum. Jeff Yates Contributing Editor Interactive Trading Room Moderator Gap and Intra-Day Trading Specialist Instructor and Traders Coach
  23. This week I want to share with you one of the most enlightening moments in my learning process related to the use of trendlines. When I decided to educate myself about technical analysis and the markets there were no online trading seminars. There were no seminars at all, but if there were they wouldn't have been online since there was no internet. However, there were market letters that that came by snail-mail that did some education along with trade recommendations. All used trendlines in the analysis. Let's review what is taught about the use of trend lines and questions I had after using them. Trend line Analysis: A trend line needs at least two connecting points. A trend line with three or more points is stronger The trend line connecting points shouldn't be too close The trend line shouldn't be too steep or shallow An uptrend line will act as support A downtrend line will act as resistance A trend line once broken will have the opposite effect The break of a long existing trend line changes the trend Questioning the validity for trendlines: Should trendlines be drawn from bar extremes or the closes? Are trendlines drawn in a higher time frame stronger? Are intersecting trendlines a stronger reference point? Are trendlines valid in all time frames, even a 1-min.? Is a trend line drawn on an Arithmetic scaled chart more valid than those on a Semi-log scaled chart? Is the break of a trend line really a change in the trend? How many times can a trend line be redrawn? Can extending a line really predict where prices will reverse? My conclusion about the use of trendlines is that while widely used and have the potential to effect price movement on market indices especially, they are subjective as reference points of support and resistance at best and not needed. If you have used trendlines, had one break, seen prices reverse back in the original direction and you then redrew the line like I have. The question that came to my mind was, is it possible to "connect the dots" again and locate support and resistance? It didn't make sense, not common sense. The answer was no. The enlightening moment came when I realize that the analysis of support and resistance is not to be done diagonally, it has to be done horizontally. It was so simple, but all the hocus-pocus analysis taught made it so hard to get to that point. Besides the basic Trend Line there are Gann lines, Gann Box lines, Regression Channel lines. Median Lines, Andrews Pitchfork Lines, Fibonacci Circle lines, Fibonacci Fan Lines and it goes on and on. It should be no surprise why so many are confused about the use of technical analysis. Been there or there right now? Here what to do, simply look to the left and stop drawing lines! Let's review the trend lines and the real coming overhead resistance on some of the broader market indices. In the chart above of the S&P 500 ETF symbol SPY, I drew the downtrend line. Clearly, prices ignored it like it was not there. Actually, it is only there for those that drew it, so it only exists as a reference point for them, in their minds; it's not real. What is real is the area in red, which is there for everyone. Somewhere in that box sellers are going to overcome buyers. Will that be for a day, two days? How far will prices drop? That's the unknown. Right now there is no pattern to suggest that. The only thing known is that the area to the left is resistance and the move up has the greatest odds of stalling in the box. In the chart above the Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ, I drew the downtrend line and we see that prices did stall at the line before moving higher. Was the line the reason? No it was not, it was the small area of price resistance to the left. Resistance does not mean prices have to go lower. Especially, when prices have fallen for a while as these did into an area of Major Support (MS) (not shown) where buyers will show up. The Qs entered into the area of price resistance Friday and sellers are going to show up in there. The 200-MA is also in the box and while subjective as a reference point of resistance, it is a widely followed point of reference. Notice the number of overlapping candles that are directly to the left of it and the unfilled gap. n the chart above of the Russell 2000 ETF symbol IWM, I drew the downtrend line. Odds are prices are going to stall there and trend line users will point to that. Why will prices stall there? Because price resistance is to the left and the other markets are coming into resistance also. It just happens to work out this way once and a while. Technical analysis does not have to be complicated; however, we have a tendency to follow what is when it comes to the markets. I did years ago, but eventually realized the majority of what is taught is nonsense. I don't know how all this nonsense started, but it's been going on a long time and continues. Most do not side-step this black hole on the way to finding the truth, if they ever do. You don't have to or can get out of it now. Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
  24. "How long will it take for me to become a profitable trader?" Boy - if I had a dime for each time I was asked this question, I would have one large collection of dimes. But I think I've done my work well. The majority of people who have sat in on my workshops and listened to me speak over the last couple of are no longer asking this question. So if you ever catch yourself wanting to ask this question, then please pay close attention to what I'm about to share with you here. Because once you understand the poisoned thinking from which this question comes from within you, you will be thankful that you now see things from a much more useful perspective. We are always, from an early age, comparing ourselves with others. From our upbringing and various influences on our thought processes as we grow up, we develop certain metrics and rules in order to determine what is 'right', 'wrong', 'fair', 'unfair', and unfortunately when we are 'good' or 'bad'. Stop doing it. Realize, that you are unlike any other individual or soul on this entire planet....or in the universe. So how can you compare yourself with others? It's like comparing apples and oranges. There are no comparisons because you are simply 'you'. You are not like anyone else. Period. So how long it took other traders to make a 'good' income at trading is completely irrelevant to you. And, if one thinks about it, what possible good could come of putting a 'standard' or an 'average amount of time it takes' out there as YOUR measuring stick simply because someone told you it was so. There are so many fallacies at work in a statement like this that it's ridiculous. If someone were to say it took 11 months, for example, for the 'average' trader to 'make it', what does that mean? Define an 'average trader'. Define 'make it'. And then ask, "What data do you have to support that 11 months is the average?" Did every single trader in the world give the person making this statement specific feedback on how much time it took them to 'make it'? NO! It's NOT POSSIBLE! The very criteria that would go into such a poll is subjective and thus makes the results entertaining, at most. Most of the truly amazing traders seem to 'disappear into the sunset'. They enjoy their privacy. And if they are amazing traders, they will be NO PART of such a silly 'poll' to help new traders provide themselves a measuring stick with which to measure their progress. They understand that this type of 'information' will not serve any trader. Think about that. Now, wouldn't you feel silly if you had actually measured yourself against some standard that was communicated to you which has no way of being based in reality? And even if it was, realizing that using it for yourself as a measuring stick is like comparing apples with oranges? Worse - I know people who have QUIT trading because of articles like this. What possible good could come of it? If you are just starting out, the thought of losing for 11 months before you 'make it' is pretty daunting. So it doesn't serve that person. If you have been trading for 8 months or thereabouts, chances are you will psychologically ruin yourself as you get closer to the 11 month mark and I can almost guarantee that you will not 'make it' by then simply because of human nature and the stress/pressing you will put on yourself. And, God forbid, you are past the 11 month marker already and you will make yourself feel like a complete idiot. Kurt Capra Contributing Editor Instructor and Traders Coach
  25. Over the years, I've seen many TV commentators, newsletter writers, self-proclaimed market gurus, chat room moderators and of course, traders call a bottom. Most of them being early on their call and/or entry are caught on the wrong side of the trend. However, they always have follow up calls to get long in hopes of catching the elusive bottom. I'll show you how elusive - it isn't. What is baffling is, bottoms are one the easiest patterns to spot, so why not wait for it to setup? Of course that would take some trading education, which most people resist spending money on until they have lost some money - or a lot it. But how senseless is it to be calling and risking money on a reversal without any evidence of one? Don't expect this to ever change and we don't want it to. The bottoming pattern happens not only because of accumulation, it is also because of the early buyers capitulating. Let's review some examples. In the charts above are various tradable instruments. I chose bottoming patterns in stocks, commodities, currencies and the broader markets indices. It does not matter what you trade, this happens the same way in all tradable instruments. As prices move lower within a downtrend they will begin to accelerate lower near its end. This is seen through multiple bars moving down with little overlap between them and/or wide range bars. At some point, the move lower will be rejected and prices will spring back up. The spring up typically is shallow and does not violate the trend by overcoming Major Resistance (MR). What follows is a consolidation and pullback that will retest the original low. At times, the original low point of the move will be violated; however, all moves higher that initiated from the retest should have multiple bars moving higher into MR or above it and may have bullish Wide Range Bars (+WRB) as well. Pristine Tip: Multiple bars moving in one direction with little overlap between them are a Wide Range Bar in a higher time frame. The bottoming process can go on for a relatively long period of time depending on the time frame being viewed. Longer time frames will form bottoms over a longer period of time and vice versa for shorter. That being said, the Pristine Trained Trader (PTT) knows that the odds of the bottoming pattern having high odds of making a significant move depends on the alignment of multiple time frames and where the bottom sets up. Let's look at an example of a stock that should form a bottoming pattern soon. In the chart above, I have displayed multiple time frames of ROSS Stores (ROST). The monthly time frame is in a strong uptrend and pulling back where buyers will show up. That pullback is coming into first price support (green area), which may be hard to see to the untrained eye in this time frame. What I have marked on the monthly as price support is the overlapping candles in the $50 dollar area. Pristine Tip: Overlapping candles in a higher time frame are a base in a lower time frame. See the base in the weekly time frame at the left. Notice the increase in volume last week as current prices neared the base of price support. That pick up in volume is exactly what we want to see when prices enter into a price support area. The daily time frame of ROST is clearly in a downtrend and has not formed a bottom. However, Thursday's gap lower on increased volume that resulted in the formation of a Bottoming Tail (BT) is a typical exhaustion gap. This gap lower and BT could be the start of the bottoming process; time will tell. Exhaustion gaps come after a period of declining prices and signal that the last of the traders/investors hoping that prices would hold and turn higher have given up hope and are dumping their shares. With the current correction in the broader markets ongoing, I hope this Chart of the Week will help you what to look for. There may be stocks that have shown relative strength and have started the bottoming process already. You will have to scan for them, but now you know what to look for! Many new to trading the markets are lured into thinking that one market is a better market to trade than another. Those trying to sell you their services related to a specific market will guide you to that faulty thinking. For example, FOREX is a better or easier market to trade than individual stocks or equity e-minis. This is completely false. Any market can be difficult at times because of uncertainty related to that market resulting in choppy price action. Or, any market can be relatively easy to trade when multiple technical concepts are in alignment. With the right trading education - you can trade any market or stock you want with the same method. Remember, the examples of bottoming patterns above were from Stocks, Commodities and Currencies. There is no difference. Yes, different instruments have basic foundational information related to them, but that information is not what you will trade. It's the patterns within the trends at the time that you will trade. Happy Thanksgiving to All! Greg Capra President & CEO Pristine Capital Holdings, Inc.
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