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  1. Options on futures are now available to trade through NinjaTrader Brokerage! This expansion allows options traders to save on their trades with NinjaTrader’s deep discount commissions and benefit from industry-leading support. Why Trade Options on Futures with NinjaTrader Brokerage? · Discount Pricing: Save on trades with simple low rates · Span Margins: Real-time portfolio margining · Low Minimum: Open your account with only $1000 In addition to the FREE NinjaTrader platform included with all brokerage accounts, traders will also have access to the CQG Desktop web-based platform to trade options on futures. · Current Clients: Contact Brokerage Support to start trading options on futures · New Clients: Open Your Brokerage Account Let Us Know How We Can Help Contact our brokerage team at 312.262.1289 to discuss how NinjaTrader’s solutions can be customized for both new & experienced traders. Futures, foreign currency and options trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. View Full Risk Disclosure.
  2. Does anyone know of any indicators, indices, or market internals that function well during the overnight session for the US index futures, bond futures, oil, gold, type of 24 hr trading during non US hours?
  3. High leveraged trades in Futures & Options can be tricky. Stop losses can be used for risk management but a few stop loss triggers can take away a substantial part of your capital. What is important is the entries are timed precisely and once an entry is made, ride on the position till exit. Equally important is the stock selection which can give the best trending position. Using Triple Trend Oscillator one can analyze the long term trend and take position in a shorter time frame with a precision entry using a minor trend, all this information available on the same indicator. An advanced option trader has highly sophisticated tools to trade in options where each of the factors affecting option pricing is analyzed. However, for a trader it boils down to managing the intrinsic and time value of an option. Hence it is important for an option trader to know the trend force and direction before trading in options. A strong trending move can negate the effect of theta (time value erosion), keeping the option trader in profit, even when close to expiry. Trading naked options, if timed correctly, can become a relatively risk free, simple and high profit strategy . An option trader using the Triple Trend Oscillator will be in a position to judge the tend quality. The position of trend oscillators close to zero indicates sideways moves which can kill an option trader. The best trend structures would be when the trends are placed away from the zero line indicating strong trending move in either direction. Again the position of the intermediate and minor trend would indicate the trend strength and the trigger line could be used to take position in the direction of the major trend. Notice in the following chart, how the thin black line zero crossover can be used to make precise entry in the direction of a larger trend. Even if you miss the first entry or are not confident, one can always use the second crossover for a good directional trade.
  4. Hi all traders, I'm Larry Pi @ ninZa.co ninZa.co provides traders with essential, affordable, excellent, and elegant NinjaTrader indicators. There are also many FREE AWESOME indicators that you can download at ninZa.co. Please visit my website and pick the indicators you like/need! Link: ninZa.co
  5. I notice that the ESZ4 is trading 9 points lower than the ESU4 but with the same action and higher volume. Can someone elaborate this price difference? Do the price always move in unison? SHould I be trading the ESZ4 rather than the ESU4? Are there unique oppurtunities or dangers associated with rollover? I am a begginer and this is my first rollover period. I would appreciate any veteran insights!
  6. Based on my own experience as well as working with hundreds of traders over the years, I have come to the conclusion that there are three major components to winning in the stock market. An excellent Method, a customized Plan that fits YOU, and the right Mental Approach. While mastery of each of them is paramount, building the right Mental Approach seems to be the most challenging to master for the majority of traders. Without a winning attitude and the proper mindset, even the soundest of all methods will lead to lost money. In fact, a winner is more defined by mental make-up than by method. This is why the trader with a winning attitude and a faulty approach can still produce positive results, while the trader with a loser's mentality will stumble and fall, despite an excellent approach. Don't think so? What do you actually think causes one trader to play six winners in a row, and another to experience six consecutive losses? How is it that one trader can use a daily newsletter and win, while another uses it and loses? What do you think differentiates the person who buys XYZ and wins, from the person who buys the same XYZ and loses? The difference lies in the Mind, plain and simple. One of the most revolutionary axioms I have ever come across is this: "As a man thinks in his heart, so is he," and this universal truth is just as applicable to traders as it is to anyone else. Monitor the attitude of a winner and you will find a level of confidence and certainty that is almost beyond belief. And while most people will make the mistake of assuming that winners are confident and certain because they win; the truth is that winners consistently win because they are confident and certain. No method, however sound, will work for the trader who mentally pictures himself losing before each trade is placed. And no amount of Money, however large, will save the individual who secretly harbors the belief that, "Whatever I touch, turns to mush." As choice-making individuals, we must choose a winner's mindset. You can never fail, or even feel like a failure, if you recognize the simple fact that you are not your results. You create them, which means that you posses the power to alter them if you happen not to care for them. There is room at the top for all dedicated traders, but the first step is to actually believe that. The second is to start acting like it. Think the part, then act the part and the rest mysteriously takes care of itself. But don't take my word for it. Just try it. Jared Wesley
  7. Good Morning. For Futures, I'd like to understand how the Implied Volatility (iVol) of a particular option chain relates to its underlying. Better to use an example: I'd like to write puts on the Dec'13 Option Chain for Natural Gas (/NG). This particular Option Chain is associated to the December Contract (/NGZ3). Obviously, I'd like to time my short position with a high iVol, ideally after a peak has occurred. My doubt is if the iVol associated with the Dec Options is tight with the specific Dec contract. One can tract the iVol for each specific contract and they all behave differently. I use ThinkOrSwim for this purpose. On the other hand, iVolatility.com provides a iVol index for the underlying as a whole. Which approach better reflects the iVol of the Option chain? Thanks,
  8. My current day trading methodology is an amalgam of volume profile, Market Auction, and VWAP principles. My instrument of choice has been AAPL options. A couple of months ago I made the switch from trading weeklies to a little further out and deep-in-the-money. I just couldn't handle the high rate of time decay anymore. Initially it was a good switch, however recently I have come into a situation where the spread has become problematic. I exclusively use market orders when entering/exit. During the high liquidity part of the day's open, the spreads are awful. For example this morning I had bought some calls on a break above VWAP, the market order was literally 1.40 above the bid. Horrible way to start a trade, especially given that it moved against me. In the past I had always found it difficult to time a limit order with the chart of the underling where I want my entries/exits. With AAPL options, the bid/ask can move extremely fast. At any rate, I was curious what everyone's thoughts were on this matter. I know of a few people having great success trading futures. They have a very structured system and have no issues putting in their orders at particular points in the chart that meet their auction criteria. I feel at times that with options, I'm having to juggle elements that take away from it being a similar "mechanical" trading experience. Thoughts?
  9. Alright guys, so I made a poor call on AAPL and I'll clear that up later. I'm still long AAPL, by the way. Today, I want to talk to you about a great trading system that I utilized to bring me gains in futures trading. It is called the floor trader strategy and you can read more about it right here: http://www.trading-naked.com/FloorTraderMethod.htm There are 3 things to remember with this method: 1. The first is to watch out for retracements; a minor rally in a downtrend and a minor decline in an uptrend. I have always loved retracements as they are so easy to identify and trade on. 2. Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is vital and it involves the 9 and 18 EMA lines. 3. Identify entry level or trigger.
  10. What I am sharing is my interpretation of Open Interest in futures. What is “Open Interest” in futures? For every single futures contract of open interest there is a buyer who is “long” and a seller who is “short”. There are never more longs than shorts and vice versa. At the end of the day each contract that has not been closed out between the “long” and the “short” equals one digit of “open interest”. If open interest is increasing it means that there is an increase of both buyers and sellers that are building a position or putting one on. This has nothing to do with volume increasing. Volume can decrease on a trading day and open interest can increase. Likewise, volume can increase on a trading day while open interest can decrease for that day. A single digit of “volume” is a transaction between a buyer and a seller but not necessarily between a long and a short. Now how does that make sense? There are two types of buyers, those who are buying to initiate a “long” position, and those who previously sold “short”, and are now buying to close out a position. If you are the buyer of a contract and you are going “long”, what affect will that have on open interest? It all depends on whether or not the seller who is selling it to you is liquidating an existing “long” position or if they are initiating a “short” position? Next… If you are looking to buy because you are closing out an existing “short” position, what effect will that have on open interest? Again it would depend on whether or not the seller who is selling the contract to you, is closing out an existing “long” position or if they are initiating a “short” position. The two types of sellers are those who want to sell and initiate a “short” position, and those who were previously “long” and are selling to close out their position. This is why volume or transactions don’t have to be between a “short” and a “long”, just a buyer and a seller. The topic of open interest and volume along with their implications can be as confusing as it gets in this business.If you are confused or having difficulty understanding this so far I would suggest coming back again and re-reading before moving on. Let’s look again at the scenario where you are buying to initiate a “long” position. If the seller who sells you the contract was already “long” and closing out their position, then open interest will stay the same. There is still someone short on the other side of that contract out there.So you have volume for this transaction but open interest does not change. In this same scenario, let’s say the seller of that contract to you was instead actually someone initiating a “short” trade, than the open interest will increase. Volume can be down from a previous day and open interest can still increase and vice versa. In summary, if the NET buyers of the total contracts traded on a given day want to initiate “long” positions and so do the NET sellers want to initiate “short” positions, we will see open interest increase. If the NET sellers of the total contracts traded are liquidating their “long” positions and the NET buyers are also closing out their “short” positions on a given day, then open interest will decrease. If “longs” are buying or selling to other “longs”, and if the “shorts” are buying or selling to other “shorts”, open interest will not change. What is also important to add to this conversation is that money is never made or lost in the open interest as a whole. This is what it means when futures are stated to be a “zero sum” game. If you make $1,000 in profits trading futures today, you can be sure there are positions that have an equal $1,000 in losses today somewhere else as well. Profits and Losses are debited and credited in equal amounts at the end of each day from those who traded or have positions on. In order for you to make $100,000 trading futures, other traders or investors will lose $100,000. One should know their competition AND know themselves before considering whether or not they can thrive or even survive in this business. Lastly, the greater the open interest the greater the speculation and/or hedging and vice versa in the futures markets. I believe this is extremely important in determining the probabilities for supply and demand within the profile of the auction market in the weekly time frame. Questions for the readers: If open interest is increasing or decreasing is that bullish or bearish? What if volume is decreasing or increasing in either scenario? Are you bullish, bearish or neutral? What if the commercial traders are going NET long or NET short in each scenario? What if price is increasing or decreasing with each one of these different scenarios? Do you know which one of these scenarios gives you the greatest “edge” with your system? Ignore the changes to open interest and you may be wrong on what the changes to price, volume, and the COT report mean. Yours truly, Scott Pluschau This piece was written by one of TopstepTrader's Funded Traders Scott Pluschau TopstepTrader http://www.topsteptrader.com seeks to find and develop undiscovered trading talent from around the world. While in our program, those who display a strong trading skill and aptitude will be backed as a fully-funded trader.
  11. Using Pivot Points to make Better Trades Pivot Points have been used by floor traders at the major equities and futures exchanges for a long time. Traders found that the price tended to hover near the pivot level and trade in between the pivot and support and resistance levels generated by a simple calculation based on the previous day’s high low and close. One advantage of using Pivots is they are a predictive indicator as opposed to lagging. Predictive Vs Lagging Indicators The majority of technical indicators most traders use such as moving averages and RSI are lagging. Meaning they are telling us what has already happened, or at best, what is happening in real time. Few indicators are predictive; one type of predictive indicator is Pivot Point study. Pivot Points use old data to predict future price movement, and, since technical analysis is based on the idea that many people looking at the same thing will draw similar conclusions, we can use pivot points in a variety of ways to improve our trading. Pivots have been used by floor traders for many years, traders found that daily price action seemed to fluctuate more intensely around certain levels based on the previous day’s high, low and close. Traders also found that by using the pivot point and the previous day’s range, high and low, they could set support and resistance levels that price respected. There are several methods of calculation for these pivots we will explore the classic calculation method in this article in detail but we will also discuss the alternative methods. Classic Pivot Points To calculate the pivot point, take the previous day or session’s high(H), low(L) and close©, add them together and divide by 3 [(H+L+C/3 = Pivot Point (PP)] Now we can calculate the support and resistance levels based off of the pivot, Support 1 is (PP x 2)-H , Resistance 1 is (PP x 2) – L =, S2 is (PP-Range), S3 is(PP-Range) x 2 and S4 is (PP-Range) x 3. R2 is (PP+Range), R3 is (PP+Range x 2) and R4 is (PP+Range x 3). Range is High-Low. E-mini S&P500 Chart: For this example we will use the E-mini S&P 500 futures. The previous session high was 1124.25, the low was 1110.25 and the close was 1122.25 Using these values we can calculate the pivot point, which is 1118.92, Support1= 1113.57, Resistance1=1127.58, S2=1104.94, S3=1090.92 and S4=10796.92. R2=1132.92, R3=1146.92 and R4=1160.92. Looking at this chart, we see that when price fell, it fell exactly to the first level of support and bounced higher. We used the exchange hours to set our session and ignored the Globex/overnight session when calculcating our pivot points. The reason we did this is because much more volume is traded during the exchange session and the institutions that really move the price are trading during these hours. Most institutions do not trade the low liquidity overnight session unless there is a news event. So when the market opened the next day it immediately fell and found support exactly at S1. The difference between R1 and S1 was about 14 points, which is a pretty large range for this contract. In other words, it would take a major event to push the price to the next level of support or resistance (S2, R2). By using S1 as the buy entry and our pivot point as a take profit level we can use S2 as the Stop Loss level, the difference between S1 and the PP was 5.34 (5.25 rounded down, which is 21 ticks on this contract), so that was our profit potential on this setup. Conversely, we could have set a buy stop slightly higher than R1 and a sell stop right below S1, this would be more of a breakout strategy where we look for the price to move through either level with momentum and continue down to S2 or move higher to R2. Alternate Calculation Methods There are several methods to calculate pivot points, 2 alternate methods are Woodie’s and Fibonacci. For Woodie’s method instead of using the previous session’s closing price, we use the current session’s open price. The formula to calculate the pivot point is PP=(H+L+(Today’s Openx2)/4. Our Support and Resistance levels are calculated the same way as the classic method. Another method is Fibonacci, this method uses the Classic calculation to find the Pivot Point (H+L+C)/3 but uses the major fibonacci levels to calculate support and resistance levels. S1=PP-0.382 x (H-L), S2=PP-0.618 x (H-L) and S3=PP-1.0 x (H-L). R1=PP+0.382 x (H-L), R2=PP+0.618 x (H-L) and R3=PP+1.0 x (H-L) Here is a table using the same Open, High , Low and Close data to compare the different calculation methods: Combining Pivots with other tools. Pivot Points are a valuable tool for any trader, however, no single tool tells the whole story, we are looking for multiple indicators to align and confirm a move. Meaning, if the price is nearing R1, our RSI is above 90 and we have an important Fibonnacci level at or around the same price, that validates our prediction that we will encounter resistance more than relying on any 1 indicator. It is important to look at different indicators that tell a different story. For example if you are using a moving average crossover for entry confirmed by a MACD, you are basically looking at the same thing in two different ways, a MACD measures the difference between 2 moving averages so of course the signal will be confirmed! But if we mix the inidcators up by using a momentum indicator such as RSI or Stochastics, now we are looking at 2 different instruments that are giving a similar reading. Combine these indicators with support and resistance tools such as pivots and Fibonnacci, now you have 3 totally different indicators for confirmation, that means you have a much better chance of making a good trade. You may find yourself taking less trades, however this is about quality, not quanitity. In the end, trading is all about probablilty, and if you put the probability in your favor over and over again, you will increase your chances of coming out on top. Risk Disclosure: There is a substantial risk of loss in trading futures and foreign exchange. Please carefully review all risk disclosure documents before opening an account as these financial instruments are not appropriate for all investors. Jesse Richards is a Series 3 registered Commodities Futures Broker and a Principal of Fast Trading Services LLC
  12. Professional trading firm located in Delray Beach, FL provides a hands on approach for prospective and successful traders seeking a direct career path in becoming a Hedge Fund Manager or Commodity Trading Advisor. Trade stocks, futures and/or forex from our newly built trading floor or remotely. Enjoy state of the art technology, top-notch execution platforms and professional execution rates. Combined, our team has over 60 years of trading industry experience. We are not a prop-shop. We are the avenue and fast track to a true career as a fund/money manager. The Opportunity: Our firm will closely assist accepted traders through the entire process with the ultimate goal of becoming a fund manager. This includes, building an marketable auditable track record, raising trading capital for successful traders and more. We Supply: · Trading guidance by our experienced team · Proprietary trading software · Trading computers with multiple screens · Low latency connections · Robust execution platforms and charting · Professional commission rates · Professional level leverage · Auditable trading track records · A professional trading room atmosphere For The Successful/Proven Traders & Managers, We Offer: · Fund formation · Regulatory registration · Seed capital availability · Capital introduction & Marketing · Fund administration, compliance and more · Private office suites Please e-mail your resume and a brief description of your trading background to hfriedman (AT) stonehengeemg.com . We will contact you to arrange a meeting.
  13. I trade futures pairs using a mean reversion strategy called Statistical Arbitrage (StatArb). And the processes is highly dependent upon divergences from an equilibrium that is usually caused by some market event or interruption. This energy has the effect of reverberating through through price correlations and causing a divergence, which I wait until that divergence has statistical significance and then bet on its reversion to the equilibrium. During times of low volatility, like now, with the VIX below or near 20, these divergences, let's call them bumps, are much smaller than when in higher volatile markets. The other problem is runaway markets, like the Nasdaq, which complicates matters even more, by skewing these bumps and reducing opportunity. How do you adjust your strategy to accommodate these aberrations?
  14. E-Mini contracts are available to trade different futures contracts, especially the contracts of the stock index futures such as the NASDAQ100, S&P500 and Russell 2000. The e-mini S&P500 futures contract is 20% of the size of the full S&P futures contract. This means that the e-mini contract of the S&P500 is $50 per pip. The advantages of the e-mini contracts are that they provide greater liquidity and are more affordable to the trader. In addition, e-mini contracts can be traded round-the-clock by traders since they are traded electronically. This is in contrast to the full futures contracts which are traded using the open outcry system on the floor of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, which can only be done during the official trading hours.
  15. Emotionally it's a lot easier to buy on strength than to buy into weakness. Buying into a falling market feels unnatural. Your instincts warn that price may continue to fall resulting in lost capital. On the other hand buying when the market makes new highs feels more natural. Price is moving in your direction and the sky is the limit! However, what feels natural or easy is often the opposite of what you should be doing. In this post I'm going to compare these two different trading strategies on the S&P E-mini futures market and see which one produces better results. I created two simple trading systems in EasyLanguage. Both systems will go long only. Both systems will utilize a 200-day simple moving average (SMA) for an environment filter. Long trades will only be opened if the closing price is above the 200-day SMA. All open positions are closed at the end of the 5th day. No commissions or slippage will be deducted for these tests. The tests were all executed on the S&P E-mini futures market between September 1997 and September 2011. BUY NEW HIGHS First let's create a system that goes long if price creates a new three day high. In other words, when price creates a short term breakout on the up side, we will open our long position. This will represent our buying into strength test. Below is the equity curve. The system is profitable, but we have an ugly looking equity curve with deep drawdown. BUY PULLBACKS Instead of going long on a new three day high, we are going to go long after three consecutive lower closes. This system will represent our buying into weakness test. The equity curve below depicts this system. What a difference! This equity graph looks great all the way until the recent market volatility that hit during the summer of 2011. Our last trade produced a large loss at the very end of our equity curve. Remember, both of these trading systems have no stops. The point is clear. Buying into weakness outperforms buying into strength for the S&P.
  16. In addition to having both a good trading strategy and being adequately capitalized to trade you must have the discipline to follow your system in good times and bad. Most new traders or inexperienced traders will cherry pick trades. They watch a variety of markets and pick and choose what may or may not be a good trade. Even worse a trader will see a winning trade and want to take those profits off the table too soon or even worse take a losing trade and let it go only hoping it will come back to break even. Let your winners run and cut your losses. This is where an disciplined trading system can be of great help. MORE tomorrow..... chart and video of a couple trades today See video here
  17. In the early days of online trading, traders were forced to manually adjust their stop loss levels in order to protect any profits made in the market, while following the market to maximize profits. With the advent of the trailing stop tool, a trader can wait for the market to become profitable, then activate the trailing stop tool, setting it to a pre-determined trailing distance. This protects the profits in the trade by staying still when the market moves against the trader, and continuing to trail the market when it moves in the trader’s favour. If the market moves against the trader to get to the trailing stop, the trailing stop now functions as a stop loss to close the trade but this time, in profit.
  18. Support is probably one of the most used terms that a trader MUST encounter every trading day. In reality, support levels are not just one fixed price level, but rather a zone. The more times a support level is tested without being broken, the stronger the support. If a support is tested repeatedly several times, at some point the price will either reverse totally or break through the support level if the downward trigger is strong).
  19. Market speculation is a risky venture. Speculators do not hold positions for the long term. They aim to enter and exit positions as fast as possible. Speculators aim to make the maximum gain from the smallest of price movements. They do this by leveraging positions so as to maximize the profits they can make from price fluctuations. To explain this better, rather than wait for 20 trading days to gain $1000 from 100 pips in the market, a speculator will aim to make the same amount of money, using a lower number of pips but with a high leverage in a shorter time frame.
  20. Slippage occurs in al financial markets when there is increased volatility or when there are so many orders that a broker/dealer can handle at a time. This is a phenomenon associated with dealing desks. Slippage is associated with a change in spread. For instance, a trader may want to BUY the EURUSD at 1.3209/1.3212, with an expected spread of 3 pips. Slippage may cause him to be filled at 11.3252, in which case, the trader’s position opens at a spread of – 40 pips. As seen in this example, slippage is associated with increased transaction costs. Slippage is an undesirable phenomenon and the only way to avoid it is by using brokers who offer direct market access.
  21. Short selling is a practice that is carried out in all financial markets, but carries a significant amount of risk when it is done outside the forex market. Indeed, short selling outside forex is a controversial practice. In forex, short selling simply means selling one currency against another in order to profit from the anticipated fall in value. Outside forex, short selling involves borrowing an asset from a broker and offering it for sale, and if the price falls, the trader can buy that security back and return to the broker, profiting from the price differential. The controversy in this practice was typified in 2008 as the collapse of Lehman Brothers hit stock markets. Unscrupulous traders circulated rumours of further collapses, triggering massive sell-offs. Many of these traders, who already had short-sale positions on these assets, profited from the steep price falls, forcing the Securities and Exchange Commission to place a ban on naked short-selling As such, short-selling is only allowed when the market is on an uptick or is in a neutral mode.
  22. Sometimes, a forex trader may see that his position in the forex market has the potential to make more money if allowed to run. This may warrant leaving the position overnight, or even for several days or weeks at a stretch. This is a forex rollover, as the position is allowed to remain open and be “rolled over” to the next trading day. Normally, a rollover incurs a charge. The interest rates of the countries whose currencies are represented in that trade are used to calculate the charge. So if a trader has a “Buy” position in a currency such as the AUDJPY (where the interest rate differential is 4.25 – 0.1 = 4.15%), the trader’s position will be credited with the corresponding interest calculation. If he held a “Sell” position, he would instead be debited based on the interest rate differential of 4.15%.
  23. Re-quotes usually occur when prices have moved away from the levels displayed on the trader’s platform screen. Re-quotes can occur for a number of reasons. Sometimes, there may be a delay in data transmission as a result of poor internet network. At other times, fast-paced market action can be so rapid that even when data transmission is ok, the price of the asset would have moved at the time of execution. The only way to avoid re-quotes is by using a broker with direct market access, such as ECN brokers. These offer prices from several liquidity providers with greater market depth so you can be sure your orders are always executed.
  24. Range trading is based on the fact that prices form channels independent of whether prices are trending upwards or downwards or sideways. It assumes that 80% of the time, the candlesticks will bounce up from lower channel trendlines and retreat from upper channel trend lines. By selling at resistance and buying at support levels, a trader may be able to profit from these moves in the market. Pivot points also form a basis of horizontal range trading, as opposed to use of ascending channels for uptrend range trading and descending channels for downtrend range trading.
  25. The PIP is the smallest movement of a financial asset to the last decimal point of the price quote. For example, if the price of the EURUSD moves from 1.3290 to 1.3297, we say the currency pair has moved 0.0007 points or 7 pips (1.3297 – 1.3290 = 0.0007). The value of the pip depends on the lot size used to execute the trade. The value of a pip for a Standard Lot is $10, while the value for a mini-lot is $1.
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