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btfox
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Posts posted by btfox
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Okay, it often happens. "EL" seems like a good guy. I've read many of his blog entries and have some questions about the trades. The entries are often late in the trade. The P, b, patterns have been proved unreliable statistically by Tom Alexander. Market Delta is an interesting software product. Anyone who has traded on the floor will tell you that buying and selling at the bid/ask is not indicative of market direction--especially on lower time frames. Big money may be bidding up a market only to turn around and sell it. That's a fact Jack.
I was waiting for the money shoe to fall. Little money mgt., and too much more is not present in the blog to convince me that this training will be successful. He's been on the web for less than a year. No one is CP definitively in a few months. The successful traders testimony is not reliable--essentially it is equivalent to a placebo. Markets change and traders disappear like that.
I won't carry on or try to discredit anyone. Buyer beware. Ask questions. Don't be afraid of offending him, or perhaps shattering your dreams of suddenly becoming a trader. It don't happen that way pal. I'm tellin' ya, it ain't gonna happen.
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Look at metromixchicago.com as I don't know what you like. Also, depends on whether you've got a car or not--Lincoln Park area tends to be too many students for my taste. CME doesn't give a great view of the pits; they do have an exhibit... and cbot has been closed to public view since 911. If you have a chicago broker they will some times get you in. cbot is better bet for that... Art Institute has a decent restaurant. Shedd Aquarium is nice but crowded. Jeff Koonz is at the Museum of Contemporary Art, and I'd advise you to stay away from Navy Pier (tourist trap), except for Shakespeare Theater and the Ferris Wheel, based on the 1893 Chicago Exposition. And as a Librarian I would suggest that you read, "Murder in the White City," which is based on a true story (it combines murder, of course, a sleazy character, and also history about the construction, politics and famous architects involved in said 1893 Exposition). If you have decent weather a walk on the beach is also not bad. -have fun
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note that NinjaTrader Charts are free and you can purchase Fin-Alg MP at a reasonable price, utilize "opentick" data for free or very little, depending upon market. NT has a forum for developing and picking up free indicators and advanced order placement, etc... get your levels from MP and utilize whatever order book you like (adds redundancy) as "opentick" is not as fast or reliable as say TT, etc. You avoid the $20 cbot fee this way too. I usually run one data feed per pc, but not always necessary. My monthly fees for charts and data is now $5.00, where I once paid around $200...
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From what I have read so far it seems that too much emphasis is placed on POC, which in MP is not the main reference point (at least for trading purposes), rather the rotation and the distribution above and below it. Also, please note that according to MP authorities, like Don Jones of Cisco-Futures and others with a long time acquaintance with MP, distribution does not have to be in 30 minute increments. It can be daily, 10 or 20 days, monthly, etc.. The MP distribution is:
-more significant over longer time frames (say 3 days or more) and many software packages offer merging and splitting tools.
-the IB or initial balance varies from one market to another...but those time periods have always been important to traders. If you are on the floor you can hear the horn and look for some increased activity (a number of trades have been developed off these time periods). I've heard that institutions generally trade at certain times of the day; some of it may be adjust their positions, or it will sometimes be reacting to news.
- more significant are the times when MP moves or rotates and establishes a new balance area, hence the larger moves.
-granted there a subtleties throughout the day, and traders have been trying to optimize them to that end.
-but in general it is the reaction to extremes that gives us trades; the POC can be an unhappy place
It has taken some time to decipher the original MP studies and for traders to use of them, but we can thank those who have spent time doing so. And thanks to whomever started this thread. I think it looks promising.
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btw, I am not associated with Don Jones or any of the others mentioned above. I takes knowledge where's I can finds it, and I ain't got nottin to sell!
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Right, well I don't know Trevor but I thought the MD had promise. He is using some MP ideas in developing his software and I thought that even Don Jones has mentioned him. I've watched Frank Butera call trades and though he may is not among the older generation of MP users, he does know Dalton's work and has adapted it for his own use.
Btw, there is a Jones who is co-author of Dalton's book and he is the son of Don.
As I mentioned Don Jones has been associated with MP since the 80's. I don't know if he was working hand in hand with Pete S. when he developed MP, but he is obviously an authority. And he will talk to you and mull over trading ideas. I had no problem making money in the short course using just the basic information...but you are watching probably a dozen markets and looking for the best trades.
I'm not so sure that floor traders cared about MP, because MP delivers what you get from standing in pits. As the 30-yr pit dried up, bond traders walked over the the Ag pit. The best have good memories for levels and you get lots of info standing shoulder to shoulder with traders. As markets go electronic traders have had to adapt. The most successful trader I know, a bond trader for 20+ years, "trades by feel." He does, of course, have all that experience up his sleeve. He would still go down to the pit on occasion but he said that he was making more screen trading--probably 3 5-min interest rates charts (5s,10s,30 yr), the dow, sp, are hidden under a screen filled with TT Domes. He day trades, also holds overnight, and scalps the dow.
In general, I would say that the best MP trades are breakouts from a balance, especially those of a minimum of 2-3 days. Reactive trades from extremes are less dependable, but once the market begins a move out of it's current balance it will be seeking a new one--those are the days where you can count on the best moves.
I think a lot of pit traders are having trouble adapting to the screen and they are the ones looking at what's out there to help them. If anyone is interested in MP after learning the rudiments, then I think Dalton is the next logical step. Cisco-Futures and a lot of information; PS's original work is in pdf file at cbot website under Education-Market Profile. Just don't expect to see anything resembling a trading system. Good Luck.
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Most of what has become MP today is only a vague resemblance of what MP is all about. Dalton, Alexander, Frank Butera, and a few others are familiar with the range of content and meaning of Market Profile in it's broader context. Don Jones of Cisco-futures.com offers a lot of free content as well as a couple courses as well as various data services. He has been researching this from the beginning; I think his book is available on a pdf file or bound. Trevor Hardnett (sp) is also among those who know MP in it's entirety and he and a few who do, such as those mentioned above, are finding their own method of applying mp to short and longer term trading. Whether the value areas are 70 or 80% is not necessarily relevant. Don uses sextants, octants, etc. More to the point MP has greater value when a balance is achieved over a period of days. He also attempts to show where the money is; i.e. from commercial interests to do to the small trader (the kind of info you get in the pit because you know who the "jamoke" facing you is). Making these numbers just another pivot point without any understanding of the larger context is really just laziness. You're looking for another easy way to trade; and if you were around through the 90's, 2000, to today, you will recognize that people who cannot adapt to changing markets will be short lived. Also, to criticize elite trader, as I noted somewhere on this site earlier is calling the kettle black.
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Long course is 12 mo. and $1200, including all the data modules, trading engine, etc. Short course is 5 mo. and $600 (see: http://www.cisco-futures.com/
the "Trader Training." link) Likewise, it includes various data packages. If you are a short term trader I think I would go with the short course....and I think that you can extend the time if you want. Under "Free Stuff" there is a free two-week trial. Once you can log on there is a pdf of don's trading manual which can be downloaded. Without the course it won't be as much use to you... It's a good reference though. Good luck. Call Don and ask questions after a trial btw.
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yes, i took the short course as recommended by don jones at cisco. He has been doing mp since its inception. He is generous with his time and input, but you need to be creative in utilizing his work toward developing a method. I currently use a modified version of mp for Ninja Trader. I found that 5-day balances usually worked the best. The mp add on for NT has the ability to merge days (even break them down by 1/2 hr. period). The levels you get can be incredibly accurate. Ultimately, you have to determine what sort of time frame, how many contracts, etc... I trade off the pivots the MP gives me; e.g. a b/o with a pullback and then a move (hopefully to the next level) and so on. If you want to take a short route to trading mp contact Frank at balancetrader. There are others, but BT is straight forward (and less expensive than most MP trading rooms). I don't currently have any affiliation with either Don or Frank btw. My background and experience are no doubt different than yours, but I find that MP is the real deal; indicators are unreliable, but you can learn to trade with MP and perhaps volume bars alone with a little experience... Good luck.
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I used trendsoft in the 90's and found them to be honest and helpful. I moved on when I began with live data. They do have a couple new products now, including a live data feed, if you are interested in looking at them...
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In addition to Dalton there is Don Jones at Cisco-futures.com. Don has been around along time (I believe that one of the co-authors, Jones, on Dalton's book is his son). There is a tremendous amount of information available free on his website and he offers a course for a reasonable fee. If you look at his site you will note that MP is a lot more than what is usually referenced--including 5-day, 10-day balances, etc... There is also updated data available only from cbot which identifies market participants from Institutional to Retail. Several well known and successful traders have been tutored here. Few of the MP charting programs include everything that you can get from cisco. Email or call Don and find out. I use Ninja and the Algo MP addon: it is better than Sierra or Ensign... by far. I don't pay $7 which is what cbot actually charges, but no one has asked. Market Delta includes MP as well. Frank Butera at BalanceTrader.com teaches another method which offers short term and swing trading ideas; he also runs a room in ensign's echat. Frank's method has a lot of merit and it is a reasonable price. Also note that the Algo MP addon can be split and merged with other days--the longer the market is in balance the more likely a better breakout. Frank's levels don't necessarily correspond to the Value Areas in the conventional sense (even Don at cisco often breaks down the VALUE areas into percentage parts, but I've found it to be very helpful. btw, Dalton's website puts out a weekly newsletter.
(I have have no affiliation with any of these parties at present. I prefer to learn and go my own way)
See also references from cisco website: Short term daytrading
Bill Duryea billduryea@msn.com Market Profile
<http://www.ioamt.com:80/> (request trial password).
Mentoring
Tom Alexander http://www.alexandertrading.com
email: alexandertrading@comcast.net
Next Seminar: Contact Alexander Trading
Market Profile Trading Services
"See INSIDE the CHART"
Trevor Harnett
MP and Electronics Trading
in Market Profile
Posted
Hello Tom, my experience with new traders is that, assuming that are presented with a profitable technique, will not be profitable for a meaningful period of time. They are going to need you six months or 18 months down the road when they hit the washboard at 90 mph.
I read enough. I might give 1 or 2 of your students a chance, given their persistence and experience, etc.. Who taught you? No one I'm willing to bet. You learned to trade from the school of hard knocks. These guys haven't likely stood across from a trader who would pick his pocket and smile and look him dead on in the eye.
I saw the pitch coming after the third or fifth time reading this. Students send you half the fee and the balance directly to a foundation? I'm not afraid to ask. Remember Gary Smith? He traded about $15k to $75k in the early 90's--by following the live feed running across the bottom of the screen on MSNBC. Gary produced broker statements. That's a "stand up guy" in my book.
I've watched traders pick up checks $10 or $20 grand for a Vegas weekend. I also know traders who were putting $10k in the bank everyday who are now brokers--$60k margin calls.
It's pointless to argue about it. I'm putting forward what I've seen in the course of my experience. There is a cost of doing business. I don't know you. I know floor traders, floor traders with traders upstairs executing the other leg of a spread trade. I've seen order flow traders--they don't use charts or T&S, just DOMs.
I know traders who are successful, but not necessarily good teachers. Yes, you can give a student a nudge. They remain on their own when it comes to achieving success. Is this worth the cost to them? I'm not convinced.
I do know that saving money by learning to trade without spending too much on resources, losing and starting over, is the smart road. If your account is $25k or more you have a much better chance of success. Hold on to your money is my advice. I've read, more than once, that the average retail account is about $3000.00 and the reason brokers are always on the phone looking for new clients. Does that ring a bell anyone?
Good luck. I don't wish anyone ill. Trading is a hard. There's no hand holding, a place for persistence and innovation. Often successful traders are the ones with a unique novel approach.