Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
leverager
-
Content Count
113 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Posts posted by leverager
-
-
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY
EUR/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Target a move to 1.1280.
The expected recovery in EUR was more robust and resilient than expected. The ease of which the 1.1150 resistance was taken out suggests further upside pressure. At this stage, the potential appears to be limited to 1.1280. Stop-loss for the bullish view is at 1.1060
GBP/USD: Neutral: Undertone has improved but 1.3320 is a major resistance.
The neutral phase in GBP that started more than 2 weeks ago is still intact. As highlighted in recent updates, while shorterterm upward momentum has improved, a sustained up-move in GBP is likely only if there is a clear break above the strong 1.3320 resistance. At this stage, the odds for a break of this level are not high even though they have increased considerably. Overall, the positive undertone would continue to improve as long as GBP stays above 1.3100.
AUD/USD: Neutral: Bullish if daily closing above 0.7600.
AUD is currently pressuring the top end of our expected 0.7440/0.7600 sideway trading range. Upward momentum has improved considerably and a daily closing above 0.7600 would indicate that a move towards 0.7675/80 (and possibly beyond) has started. Overall, this pair is expected to stay underpinned in the next few days with solid support at 0.7490.
NZD/USD: Shift from neutral to bullish: Overbought but room to extend higher to 0.7325.
We clearly underestimated the recent NZD strength as it continues to surge higher. The outlook has shifted to bullish but shorter-term indicators are severely overbought. That said, further extension to 0.7325 would not be surprising. Strong support is at 0.7150 but only a break below 0.7080 would indicate that the bullish expectation is wrong.
USD/JPY: Shift from neutral to bearish: Severely oversold but room to extend further 101.10.
The 3% plunge in USD last Friday has shifted the outlook to bearish. However, the rapid drop is clearly oversold but based on the current momentum, further extension to 101.10 would not be surprising (next support is at July’s low of 100.00/05). In order to maintain the current momentum, any rebound should not move back above 104.20.
-
when i saw theese six JPY pair, i found all of them already formed a sell pattern,
ussually i never trade with h4 because it is long term time frame.
but let us see
I am waiting theese news
Here we go, sell All JPY
-
EUR/USD: If 1.0930 Fails, Downside To Be Limited To 1.08
We saw more USD strength last week, which I think partly reflects lingering global growth concerns, due to Brexit and what not. I would not fight the USD now. Especially so, as with the recent few weeks of strong US data, we could still get the Markets reprice the Fed back to more than the current 45% chance of one 2016 hike. If only August 5th payrolls is strong!
Overall, my feeling is that the Markets expect too much from global central banks – so far, the BoE has “disappointed”, the ECB has “disappointed”, and BoJ will “disappoint” next week?... While consensus is for rate cuts and more QE, I really feel the idea “lower rates are no good for economy” is getting traction among central bankers . Even BoJ Kuroda’s comments, who also shrugged off helicopter money again at G20 meeting, are in that direction. Looking at how negatively the Markets react to lower rates... I side with this view (no. more. "easing". please.) But at the same, I worry the Markets will get cold shower if central banks don't deliver as expected.
Central banks not as easy as we wish HAS to be coupled with worse/worsening global data to get a proper “risk off”, just like last December with Fed. Looking at the leading indicators, the slowdown seems inevitable, also in Europe, and the summer equity Markets have been ignoring it for now. Me? Sit on the cautious bench for the time being.
The EURUSD has corrected, and if 1.0930 fails, we could see 1.08 – but that would likely be it, assuming no major crisis/recession in Europe, China or US (baseline).
-
EUR/AUD has lost most ground, butwe expect that cross in particular to outperform in the coming weeks.
On the Aussie leg, we expect another disappointing CPI print for Q2 will compel the RBA to cut the cash rate in August. Our local economists have penciled in a core inflation print of 1.5% y/y, well below the target band, and think this will be sufficient for the RBA to act. Moreover, the risk to this call is likely skewed to the downside considering that currency strength in Q2 also had a greater disinflationary impact in New Zealand than most long-term models predicted. With the rates market still sitting on the fence at ~13bps priced, a soft CPI print should see significant follow-through in the currency.
As for the euro leg, we consider the market too dovish in pricing a ~7bp lower depo rate by year-end. This week’s meeting should make it clearer that the ECB won’t panic over Brexit and, if necessary, would likely prefer to adjust QE in the autumn. But that prospect should be less bearish for the euro than a rate cut, and the meeting thus poses some upside risk to the euro. In the US and Japan, by contrast, currency-bullish policy re-pricings won’t likely happen before September. Over the summer, the Fed will likely remain reluctant to hint at any tightening by year-end, and the Abe administration should manage to keep alive some market expectations of a large fiscal stimulus in the autumn.
...In valuation terms, lastly, the euro is just as well protected against the Aussie as the yen, having struggled for years to undershoot PPP by more than 20%.
-
Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB
EUR/USD: Bearish: Diminished bearish momentum but downside risk is still clearly intact.
The rebound from last Friday’s low of 1.0909 has been more resilient than expected as EUR touched a high of 1.1155 yesterday. However, most indicators are still in bearish territory and the greater risk still lies of the downside. The 1.0909 low is acting as a major support but a break of this level could lead to a rapid drop the mid-March low of 1.0820. Only a move above 1.1210 would indicate that a short-term low is in place.GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising.
We view the current movement as a short-term consolidation phase that is expected to lead to an attempt lower to take out the post-Brexit low of 1.3120/25 (for a move to the major 1.3000 level). However, it has been a week since Brexit and the lack of follow through has dented the downward momentum somewhat but confirmation of an interim low is only upon a break above 1.3600.AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7510. [No change in view]
.AUD is rebounding quickly from the 0.7325 low seen on Monday. While the up-move appears to have scope to extend higher and test the strong 0.7510 resistance, a clear break above this level is not expected. In other words, we are holding on to our neutral view for now and expect AUD to continue to trade choppily within a 0.7305/0.7510 rangeNZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7170 range. [No change in view]
NZD came close to the major 0.6975 support on Monday (low of 0.6971) but rebounded sharply. The up-move is viewed as part of a broader consolidation and not the start of a sustained rally. That said, a test of the major resistance at 0.7170 would not be surprising. Overall, we continue to hold a neutral view and expect further range trading between 0.6975/0.7170.USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 101.00/105.00 range.
While USD has been edging higher over the last several days, the up-move is lacking in momentum and the movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and not the start of a sustained rally. The outlook remains mixed, even from a short-term perspective and market seems undecided about what to do with this pair. Overall, we expect further range trading that is likely contained within a 101.00/105.00 range.
-
Here Is How To Position If BoJ Convenes An Emergency Meeting To Ease
-
EURUSD: Upticks are seen as an opportunity to sell at better levels. We are bearish and look for resistance in the 1.1130 area to cap a move lower towards initial targets near Friday’s 1.0910 lows and then the 1.0840 area. Beyond there we are looking towards 1.0710.
-
USDJPY: We are bearish and would prefer to fade upticks towards the 103.55 former range lows. Our targets are back to Friday’s 99.00 lows and further out towards the 94.80 area.
-
GBPUSD: We are overall bearish and would look to use upticks as an opportunity to sell at better levels. The 1.3505 former range lows are expected to provide selling interest for a move lower towards targets near 1.3015 and then the 1.2750 area.
-
AUDUSD: We are bearish and would use upticks towards 0.7520 as an opportunity to sell at better levels. A move below our initial targets near 0.7285 would signal lower towards the 0.7145 lows.
-
NZDUSD: We would prefer to fade upticks in range towards resistance near 0.7175 and look for a move below our initial targets near 0.6960 to confirm downside traction. Our next targets are towards the 0.6810 area.
-
USDCAD: We are cautiously bearish given the increased volumes on upticks and would fade upticks towards 1.3190. A move below targets near 1.2655 would signal lower towards the 1.2460 year-to-date lows.
-
EURUSD: Upticks are seen as an opportunity to sell at better levels. We are bearish and look for resistance in the 1.1130 area to cap a move lower towards initial targets near Friday’s 1.0910 lows and then the 1.0840 area. Beyond there we are looking towards 1.0710.
-
Brexit Wins: New Targets For GBP/USD, EUR/GBP - BTMU
Source : EFXNews
While the Brexit vote was a shock (we attached a 40/45% probability), we are not surprised by the initial currency market reaction. Cable still remains within our forecasted one-month range between 1.3000 and 1.5000.
In our previous base case scenario assuming that the UK voted to remain within the EU we were expecting cable to stabilise in the year ahead at around the 1.5000-level. However, the initial sharp pound weakness following the Brexit vote is fundamentally justified and is not overshooting in the near-term. The heightened political uncertainty in the UK including today’s resignation from Prime Minister Cameron with a new Conservative leader to be elected in early October, will continue to weigh heavily on the pound. The increased risk of recession in the UK and looser BoE policy in the year ahead justify a weaker pound. Capital inflows into the UK will also be dampened making it more challenging to the finance the UK’s elevated current account deficit requiring a weaker pound.
In these circumstances, we expect cable to fall into the mid-1.2000’s in the second half of this year before rebounding modestly back above the 1.3000- level in 2017 as heightened uncertainty gradually eases. The pound is already significantly weak according to our long-term valuation models which should help to dampen further downside unless there is a run on the pound.
We expect further more modest upside for EUR/GBP as well rising towards the mid to high 0.8000’s in the second half of this year before falling back towards the 0.8000-level in 2017. It is consistent with our alternative Brexit scenario outlined prior to the release of the referendum results.
-
Asian Stocks Rise Before U.S. Payrolls Data as Yen, Kiwi Gain
Asian equities rose and the Japanese yen climbed toward a three-week high before U.S. jobs data that will shape expectations for the timing of the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate hike. New Zealand’s dollar strengthened and Brent crude traded near $50 a barrel.
Stocks
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index was up 0.2 percent as of 1:50 p.m. Tokyo time. Benchmarks in Hong Kong, Singapore and Indonesia climbed to one-month highs, while those in India and Thailand were headed for their best closes since at least October. The Shanghai Composite Index was set for its first weekly gain in more than a month. Japan’s Topix lost 1.4 percent this week as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed to provide details of a fiscal stimulus package when he announced a delay to a sales-tax increase.Noble Group Ltd. tumbled 13 percent in Singapore after the commodities trader announced a rights issue to raise about $500 million at a 63 percent discount to Thursday’s close.
Currencies
The yen rose 0.3 percent versus the greenback, extending this week’s advance to 1.6 percent. The kiwi strengthened 0.3 percent, set for a 1.8 percent weekly gain, as ANZ Bank New Zealand Ltd. said its commodity price index climbed 1 percent in May.The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was down 0.2 percent for the week. Investors are paying close attention to U.S. data after Fed officials indicated a potential interest-rate hike as soon as this summer was contingent on continued improvement in the economy. Figures released Thursday by the ADP Research Institute indicated 173,000 workers were taken on last month in America, while filings for unemployment benefits declined for a third consecutive week, according to separate data.
The British pound was poised for a 1.4 percent weekly loss. The currency sank in recent days as successive polls indicated British voters are becoming more inclined to vote in favour of leaving the EU. The yuan was set for a fifth weekly loss, its longest losing streak since December.
Commodities
Brent crude was little changed at $50.03 a barrel. The third drop in U.S. crude inventories in four weeks tempered the impact of OPEC’s decision to stick to a policy of unfettered production, turning down a proposal to adopt a new ceiling on output. -
Gold dips to a $1,200 level, while greenback surges on Yellen
Japanese Yen breached a 111.00 level in Asian session on Monday. The currency erased gains from the surprising move of the Bank of Japan, which decided to abandon a round of QE at the end of April.
USD/JPY was as high as 111.45, receding to a nearly 111.00 mark. Positive retail sales reports released on Monday signalled consumption in Japan recovers.
Precious metals were also hit by greenback strengthening as investors damp low-yield assets chasing for higher gains. A losing streak on Gold was held up on a $1,201 level as the steep decline triggered a strong backlash from the bulls near the four-month low. The bullion bounced to $1,210 remaining under a threat of further selloff.
Palladium, Platinum and Silver also declined to the lows of April 8-10.
Yellen speech in Harvard last Friday didn’t have any news for markets, though cleared doubts on whether the Fed chair is in line with other board members about prospects of the US growth. Yellen reiterated that the rate hike in the coming month could be appropriate. USD index has soared to 95.00 after the speech but bounced off to 94.71 on Monday. Despite firming confidence in the possible rate hike in June, the probability of it decreased to 28.1%, reflecting low expectations of the rate hike priced on the markets.
Oil sticks to a 49.00 zone, though attempts to repeat the hike above the $50 mark are in vain. According to COT reports, Oil short wagers have contracted from 200K peak in February to only 60K in May, showing that pessimism in growth outlook is rapidly shrinking. The prospects of reaching output cap agreement are unclear, as stances of Iran and Saudi Arabia remain mixed on this matter. There were statements from Iran’s oil officials that the country is interested in orderly market, while Saudi Arabia heats competition refusing to curb the pace of drilling.
In the first quarter, France GDP (YoY) rose 1.4% vs. 1.3% projected improving outlook of the EU on the fight with deflation. European indices remain nearly unchanged and trade with reduced volatility due to bank holidays in the UK and US. Asian equities advance on weakening Yen helping exporters to boost profits as well as PBOC loosening its fixing of USD/CNY rate by 0.45%. Nikkei +1.39%, TOPIX +1.19%, Hang Seng +0.26%, CSI 300 +0.14%.
-
Oil sticks near $50, shorts positions drop to June 2015 low
Oil prices fell to $49 area on Monday as Iraq increased target level of exports in anticipation of the OPEC meeting, while production in the Canadian oil sands region should recover from large-scale wildfires.
Attention turned to the OPEC meeting in Vienna this week, although most analysts do not expect any changes in the oil cartel.
Member countries could not agree on freezing production in an attempt to support prices while Iraq became another manufacturer in the Middle East which announced boosting export to 5 million b/day in June.
WTI Oil futures were traded at $ 49.29 a barrel, falling 0.1 percent at the close of London session.
Futures on Brent decreased 0.1 per cent to $ 49.27.
Impact on the quotes also had a strengthening US dollar on the background of rising expectations of an interest rate increase in the United States in the near future.
Crude short positions decreased to less than 60K in May versus 160K in the beginning of March when price was at $32/barrel, signaling markets make light of the possibility of collapse on the energy market:
However, trading volumes were limited due to public holidays in Britain and the United States, where Memorial Day, which is celebrated in Monday, is considered the beginning of the summer season, with rising demand on gasoline due to an increase in automotive traveling.
Vienna-based JBC Energy consulting company reported that global oil demand in the January-April 2016 year grew by 1.5 million barrels per day compared with the previous year, surpassing most forecasts thanks to strong consumption in the United States, China and India.
Oil production in the United States declined to a minimum since September 2014 year after the number of drilling rigs has dropped the ninth week of the last ten, despite the recent rally in oil prices.
Expected recovery of oil production in the Canadian oil sands region also had its pressure on WTI. Suncor Energy plans to increase production at its oil fields in Alberta this week after the suspension of works previously in may due to large forest fires.
Supply disruptions due to fires in Canada and unrest in Libya and Nigeria pushed oil to seven-months peaks in recent weeks.
Source : Market News and Analytics
-
EURUSD Into Next Week's ECB & NFP : Range and Outlook - BTMU
by : Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst | Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFG
EURUSD - Bearish Bias (1.1050-1.1400)
The main US economic data releases in the week ahead will be the upcoming labour market updates for May
personal spending and deflator reports for April .
Stronger spending is expected in April and employment growth is expected to remain solid enough to justify a hike in the coming months.Fed Chair Yellen is alos scheduled to speak altough may not provide policy guidance in the week ahead.
The main focus in the week ahead for the Euro will be upcoming ECB Policy Meeting. We do not expect the meeting to prove market moving for the EURO as the ECB is comfortable to maintain its current pace of policy easing. The ECB will hold another TLTRO in June providing cheaper financing. Higher take up could weigh modestly on the EURO.
The reduced risk of BREXIT is providing limited to no support for the EURO
-
Oil Retreats-Dollar consolidates month’s gains
Asian equities rose for a third day, supported by prospects for stimulus in China and Japan. A gauge of dollar strength held near a one-week low before a speech by the head of the Federal Reserve, while crude oil retreated with gold.
Stocks
Data on Friday showed industrial companies’ profit growth slowed to 4.2 percent in April from 11 percent the previous month. The finance ministry said the government’s debt is equivalent to 39 percent of GDP, relatively low by global standards, and there’s scope for more leverage.Lenovo Group Ltd. fell to its lowest since 2011 in Hong Kong after the company announced revenue and earnings that fell short of analysts’ estimates. Toshiba Corp. jumped 10 percent to this year’s high after JPMorgan Chase & Co. upgraded its recommendation on the stock. Hyundai Merchant Marine Co. surged as much as 30 percent after Korea Development Bank said the company has made progress in negotiating discounts on leased vessels as part of a debt revamp plan.
Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed, after the gauge ended Thursday near to a one-month high. Evidence is mounting the economy is solid enough to merit Fed action, with a measure of data surprises surging to the highest since the start of last year.
Currencies
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, was little changed after losing 0.2 percent in each of the last two trading sessions. The yen weakened 0.1 percent versus the dollar, trimming its weekly gain to 0.2 percent.The currencies of oil-exporting nations were buoyed this week by an increase in crude prices. Canada’s dollar appreciated 0.9 percent, while the Russian rubble jumped 1.4 percent. The pound climbed 1.1 percent this week.
Commodities
West Texas Intermediate crude slipped 0.7 percent to $49.12 a barrel. It’s gained about 3 percent this week, buoyed by a drop in U.S. oil inventories and output, and exceeded $50 in the last session for the first time this year. OPEC is unlikely to set a production target when it meets June 2 as it sticks with Saudi Arabia’s strategy of squeezing out rivals, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. Gold fell as much as 0.7 percent to a three-month low of $1,211.68 an ounceSource : Vipromarkets News
-
Oil rallies on upbeat API estimate
The weekly API report released on Tuesday gave a green light to Oil prices, showing commercial crude reserves in the US reduced by 5M barrels, dropping from historical records. The preliminary data shook up Oil traders, who expected to see a decrease of only 2.5M last week.
Both benchmarks climbed over the $49 level with a spread between WTI and Brent narrowing to 5 cents, WTI rose by 1.09% to 49.15, Brent gained 1.21% to 49.20. The prices are now stalling below the key $50 level, waiting for the official EIA verdict, which if confirmed will probably help prices to step over the $50 mark, first time since October 2015.
As crude production in Canada has idled due to wild fires in Alberta, the US is left without its main oil supplier, which is the main cause of such a surprising decline in commercial stockpiles last week. Canada, temporarily leaving the field, also helped to absorb the glut, bringing fundamental grounds in line with current price rally. Supplies from Nigeria fall due to armed actions in the country. The decline is estimated at 300K barrels/day, helping to ease oversupply concerns as well. The buoyancy will probably remain on the market till the June OPEC meeting in Vienna where the members will try to bring back the output freeze plan, which failed on the previous meeting due to disagreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
The USD index retreats slightly from two-month peak, declining by 0.07% to 95,52 level, though its unlikely to see further declines ahead of Yellen’s speech on Friday. The US figures on Advanced Goods Trade Balance, House Price Purchase Index and Fed’s Harker speech may trigger some volatility for the US currency.
USD/CAD trades nearly flat ahead of the BoC interest rate decision due today, declining by 0.08% at 1.3112. Gold extends its declines on low risk-aversion level and crude rally, equities are also on the rise, XAU/USD dropped by 0.40% at 1,224.30, DAX gained 1.33%, FTSE 100 advanced by 0.59%
Source : Oil rallies on upbeat API estimate
-
FOMC minutes sends rate hike odds to 34%, Dollar index surges to 7-week high
The situation about increasing of Federal Funds Rate in June continue to heats up – this time from very hawkish statement from Fed official from Richmond.
Fed Richmond President Jeffrey Lacker blamed markets on being too downbeat about the pause which Fed will take before another rate hike.
Lacker, known for his hawkish views, who is not a voting member this year of the FED, also told Bloomberg that he supported raising the rate at the April meeting and that it would be prudent to pick it up in March.
Of the members with voting rights, only the Fed President of the Kansas City Esther George disagreed with the rest of FOMC board, saying that she would prefer to raise the target rate range to 0.50% -0.75%.
Lacker added that there is “usual diversity of opinions”, but supposed there are strong fundamental grounds for raising borrowing costs in June.
His views is support by strong pickup in US labor market. For example the number of Americans requesting first-time unemployment benefit was reduced last week to 278 thousand from 294 thousand, showed the report of US labor department. The pace of decline in the number of applications have become the highest since early February this year.
Experts interviewed by Bloomberg, on average, had predicted a decrease in the number of applications last week to 19 thousand. Consensus forecast of the experts interviewed by MarketWatch, had anticipated a drop by 24 thousand.
A week earlier, the number of applications peaked in this year, and a significant decline is a signal that US labor market remains strong, experts say.
The average number of applications for the past four weeks, less volatile indicator, rose to 275.75 thous. with 268.25 thous. a week earlier.Meanwhile, the number of Americans who get unemployment benefits for the week ending 7 may, declined by 13 thousand – to 2.152 million. The figure for the previous week were revised to 2.165 million from 2.161 million.
As the rally of US Dollar extends, commodities and safe heavens suffer. In Thursday gold futures fell to a three-week low during morning American trades, as investors are trying to second-guess the likelihood FED rate increase in the next month.
Gold tumbled 1.71% to $1.252 per troy ounce, the steepest decline for recent months. The move looks like a pure speculation as rate hike odds are still low and Janet Yellen was too wary on her last meeting about the possibility of changes in June.
But April 26-27 FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that the Central Bank will likely increase rates in June if US economic data from second quarter will show show rising inflation and employment levels.
As of Thursday morning, federal funds futures indicate 34% probability of raising rates in June, compared to 16% before the release of the protocol.
The growing likelihood of a rate increase in June prompted the dollar to 7-week highs.
The USD index, which tracks the US currency against the dynamics of trade-weighted basket of six major competitors increased by 0.21% to 95.40, peak March 29.
A strong United States dollar usually puts pressure on gold, since it reduces the appeal of the metal as an alternative asset and makes dollar-priced goods more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Source : FOMC minutes sends rate hike odds to 34%, Dollar index surges to 7-week high
-
Gold retreat from bounce, Oil prices surge on upbeat EIA and supply outage in Nigeria
Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid the return of worries about supply outages as Shell announced the closing of a key pipeline in Nigeria.
Brent futures strengthened 4 percents to $ 47.34 per barrel, WTI futures rose 3.45 percent to $ 46.20 per barrel.
Shell Petroleum Development Co., a unit of Royal Dutch Shell in Nigeria, announced force majeure associated with Bonny Light oil exports, after the closure of the pipeline Nembe Creek Trunk line (NCTL) for repairs.
In this regard, the country‘s oil production could fall to a minimum of more than twenty years.
News from Nigeria have changed the trend of oil price which declined earlier in the session, as the production in Canadian oil sands region started to recover from outages related to forest fires.
The energy information Administration (EIA) of the United States reported an unexpected fall in crude inventories last week, surprising analysts, which projected growth.
According to the EIA, crude oil reserves declined in the week ending on May 6, by 3.41 million barrels to 539.9 million barrels, while analysts were expecting a growth by 0.71 million barrels.
According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) published in Tuesday, stocks in the United States increased by 3.45 million barrels to 543.1 million for the week ending May 6, whereas analysts had assumed that they grow up to 714,000 barrels.
Gold price bounced from a two-week lows on Wednesday, as the dollar rally was interrupted, while European shares fell, stoking investors ‘ appetite for the precious metal.
The dollar fell to 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies.
Analysts consider the level of $ 1,300 per ounce as a price ceiling in the short term because the metal has already increased by 20 percent since the beginning of the year due to the strengthening of the commodity market and cooling expectations of FED rate hike in the United States in June.
Gold is supported mainly by traders‘ expectations that the next increase in interest rates will only happen later this year, because the FED is mindful of the difficult global economic environment.
The current situation is favorable for gold, but its hard to call it too favorable as the economy of the United States proved to be generally in good shape.
Goldman Sachs also sees limited growth potential of gold prices, given that the FED is unlikely to surprise by decline in rates, the dollar is almost nowhere more to fall and its hard for China to strengthen its currency so as to substantially weaken the dollar.
However, Goldman increased its price forecasts for gold on 3, 6 and 12 months to $1,200, $ 1.180 and $ 1,150 per ounce, respectively from $ 1,100, $ 1,050 and $ 1,000 per ounce, referring to the strong position of investors – speculators.
Source : Gold retreat from bounce, Oil prices surge on upbeat EIA and supply outage in Nigeria
Highligt
1. Oil prices rose on Wednesday amid the return of worries about supply outages as Shell announced the closing of a key pipeline in Nigeria.
2.According to the EIA, crude oil reserves declined in the week ending on May 6, by 3.41 million barrels to 539.9 million barrels, while analysts were expecting a growth by 0.71 million barrels.
3.
The dollar fell to 0.3 percent against a basket of major currencies.
4.Gold is supported mainly by traders‘ expectations that the next increase in interest rates will only happen later this year, because the FED is mindful of the difficult global economic environment.
-
Yen drops on intervention rumors, Dollar surges as Fed Dudley is optimistic on Rate hikes
Japanese yen dropped to a two weeks low against the dollar on Monday after Japan’s Finance Minister warned that Tokyo is ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.
USD/JPY hit 108.38, highest level from April 28, and swayed around near 108.20 during Monday session, up 1.03% for the day. Last week, the dollar fell to 105.05 level, 18-month low against the Japanese Yen .
The USD index, which tracks the US currency against the changes of trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, rose by 0.14 percent to 93.96, bouncing off from lows Friday of 93.00 floor.
The Finance Minister Taro Aso hit the wires on Monday saying that Tokyo was ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market, if excessive strengthening of Yen will affect trade statistics and economic indicators of the country.
Though, most traders still don’t expect monetary measures by Japanese authorities towards weakening of the yen.
At the end of last month the Treasury United States added Japan to the list of countries which are monitored for the policy of adjusting foreign exchange rates. It means that United States are worried about current monetary stance of BoJ and Japanese government, which lack of action or overly interventions may create problems on foreign exchange market.
In his report, the Minister of Finance noted that the current market of US Dollar – Japanese Yen is “well regulated ” and reiterated that all countries should abide by the commitments of the G20 and G7 on exchange rate policies. Markets saw in this statement a call for limiting currency intervention on the part of Japans government.
The yen strengthened after the outcome of the April meeting on determining monetary policy, where Bank of Japan refrained from implementing fresh quantitative easing, contrary to market expectations.
The strengthening of yen threatens the goals of BoJ to stimulate prices growth.
A demand for US dollar also rose after the head of Fed Reserve Bank in New York William Dudley said in Friday that it is reasonable to expect two more rate hikes this year, despite data showing that the growth in the number of new jobs in the United States in April was the lowest in the past seven months.
The yen also fell sharply against the euro, the EUR/JPY pair rose 1.05 percent to 123.43.
The single currency hardly changed against the dollar, the EUR/USD traded near key 1.14 level. Risk sentiments among EU investors and analysts have improved slightly in May, data showed on Monday, but worries about the prospects of the world economy continue to mount pressure.
Investor confidence index grew 1.2% from 5.7 to 6.2 in April, beating expectations of the growth to 6.1.
A separate account showed that in March the volume of orders in German industry rose more than forecast, at 1.9%, showing the largest increase since June due to high international demand.
-
Iran reaches pre-sanctions level of production, Canada outage in supply boost oil prices
Oil production in Iran will reach 3.8 million barrels per day over the next few days said to Bloomberg Roknoddin Javadi, deputy oil minister and managing director of state-owned National Iranian Oil Company. It is obvious that Iran’s intention to return to pre-sanctions levels of oil production at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day remain quite serious.
After regaining market share, which the country controlled before the introduction of international sanctions, Iran is ready to discuss joint actions in the oil market with other OPEC members added Rokneddin Javadi. As reported by Bloomberg, Iran may join OPEC quota in one or two months after increasing output to pre-sanctions level of oil production and exports.
In April Iran exported an average of 2.1 million barrels of oil per day the deputy minister noted.
Crude futures of Brent and WTI sorts are trading in positive territory on the background of disruption in oil supplies due to forest fires in Canada and the escalation of military clashes in Libya but is moved away from session highs.
The boost of production in Iran is a matter for worries for one of its major export competitors in the Middle East – Saudi Arabia. As it became known yesterday crude output in Saudi Arabia has already reached 10.15 million barrels per day.
The fire which led to the evacuation of all 88,000 dwellers of the oil center – Fort McMurray in Canada and destroyed 1,600 buildings, now threatens local airport and southern part of the city, officials said on Wednesday.
Some areas of the city in the southeast of Alberta, in the heart of Canada’s oil sands region, already lay in ruins.
As we move to the south of the fire, authorities announced a mandatory evacuation of the settlements, located 50 kilometers south of Fort McMurray.
According to officials, there is no victims of the calamity, but it is known of at least one car accident in the course of the evacuation.
A huge cloud of black smoke can be seen at a distance of more than 60 kilometers from the city, the fire can not stop the fire.
“We may lose a significant part of the city”, – said Scott Long, a spokesman for Emergency Management Agency Alberta.
The main oil facilities are located outside the fire spread, however, companies are trying to help and evacuate employees and protect conduits, which led to a cut in production.
Premier of Alberta Rachel Notley said that
Read More : Iran reaches pre-sanctions level of production, Canada outage in supply boost oil prices
-
Oil prices recede on boost of production from OPEC, Draghi speech is in focus
Oil prices are falling on Monday, because the monthly increase in output in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries offset the drop in US production and the recent weakening of the dollar, which were main propeller for recent growth of the prices.
WTI crude for delivery in June traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 39 cents or 0.81% to $45.55/barrel
.
Brent crude, traded at ICE exchange in London fell 1.27%, to $46.79.
OPEC oil production in April rose to record highs in recent history a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as the increase in production in Iran and Iraq offset strike in Kuwait and other delays in deliveries.
According to the survey the April OPEC production rose to 32.64 million barrels/day from 32.47 million barrels/day the previous month, reinforcing concerns about oversupply in the global energy markets.
Trading volumes remained fragile due to the celebration of May Day in many countries.
Oil has risen more than 75% from 12-year lows in January amid signs that low prices are beginning to resist the growth of output due to high production costs, resulting in ease of the glut.
On Sunday, the head of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol said that oil prices may have bottomed out, provided that the global economy will keep the current momentum of development.
US Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz said Monday that it expects to restore the balance of supply and demand of oil in the world market for about a year.
This year, oil production in the US could drop by 600,000 barrels per day on an annual basis, as producers respond to lower prices, said Moniz.
European stock indexes show mixed performance as the markets are still under the influence of the Bank of Japan’s decision to leave its monetary policy unchanged, while today investors awaited speech European Central Bank President Mario Draghi.
During European morning trade, EURO STOXX 50 fell 0.25%, France’s CAC 40 rose 0.18%, while Germany’s DAX 30 added 0.44%.
Markets still fluctuate after last Thursday, the Bank of Japan decided to leave its monetary policy unchanged, contrary to market expectations, preparing for additional mitigation.
The decision was made the next day after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday left interest rates unchanged near zero and almost did not give hints on future hikes.
Source : Oil prices recede on boost of production from OPEC, Draghi speech is in focus
-
US indices closed the week with declines, Amazon surprises investors with earnings report.
The US stock market closed trading in Friday with declines amid negative dynamics in the health care sector, technology and finance.
Dow Jones fell by 0,32% at the close, S&P 500 index dropped 0,51%, NASDAQ Composite Index fell 0.62%.
The leaders of growth among the Dow Jones index components in Friday were the shares of Home Depot Inc., which rose 0.87%, closing at 133.89. Stocks of the Travelers Companies Inc rose 0.68%, ending trading at 109.90. Shares of Nike Inc rose 0.68%, closing at 58.94.
Worst performers were the shares of Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which price fell 2.96%, ending the session at around 66.87. In technology sector the shares of Intel Corporation rose 2.67% to 30.28, Cisco Systems gave way by 1. 68% and finished trading at around 27.49.
The S&P 500 top performers at the end of Friday trading were the shares of Monster Beverage 1990 Corp, which rose by 12.81% to 144,22, Freeport-McMoran Copper & Gold Inc, which scored 10.76%, to 14.00, and shares of Amazon.com Inc, which rose by 9.57%, ending the session at around 659.59 after a release better-than-expected corporate earning reports, with cloud services as a main driver for growth.
Leaders of falling were shares of Stericycle Inc., which fell in price by 21.50% to 95.56. Shares of Seagate Technology PLC lost 19.07% and closed the session at 21.77. Shares of Western Digital Corporation decreased by 11.28% to 40.87.
The leaders of growth among the NASDAQ Composite index components were the shares of Globus Maritime Ltd, which rose by 200.00% to the level of 1,2900, Paragon Shipping Inc, who scored 50.86 % to 2.6400, as well as shares of KBS Fashion Group Ltd, which rose by 30.42% and closed the session at around 0.4043.
Leaders of falling were the shares of Park-Ohio Holdings Corp, which fell in price by 36.42% to close at 25.45. Shares of the company Golar LNG Limited lost 23.24% and closed the session at 16.58. Quotes Stericycle Inc decreased in price by 21.50% to 95.56.
Volatility Index also know as CBOE Volatility Index, which is based on options trading indicators on the S&P 500 rose by 4.14% reaching 15.85 points.
Gold futures for June delivery added 2.39%, or 30.25, reaching $ 1.296,65 for troy ounce. As for other commodities, the price of oil WTI with delivery fell by 0.11% in June, or 0.05, to $ 45.98 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell 0.82%, or 0.39, to $ 47.38 a barrel.
Meanwhile, in the Forex market EUR/USD pair rose by 0.86% to 1.1450, and the quotation USD / JPY fell 1.57%, reaching 106.41.
USD index dropped by 0.76% to 93.02.
Source : BrokerArena
-
Kuwait has restored oil production to 2.9 million barrels a few days after the stoppage of oilmen was settled, reports Saudi business newspaper “Al-Iktisadiya”.
Production of crude fell in Kuwait from 3 million b / d before the strike began last Sunday to 1.6-1.8 (according to various sources) b / d on Wednesday, when it was suddenly halted.
The country is currently refining 830 thousand B / d compared to 930 thousand B / d In the period preceding the action of the workers.
The newspaper reports that the leaders of oil and petrochemical industry trade unions are back for negotiations with authorities of the country to discuss reservation of privileges and benefits for oil workers in the country’s overhauled payroll system.
Modernization of the payroll system, according to the country’s leadership, would make it possible to create more equitable working conditions and reduce public costs.
The newspaper writes that the Kuwaiti leadership stood pat in the negotiations with trade unions, saying that it won’t meet the strikers’ demands “under pressure”.Unions did not achieve its goals, the negotiations began in fact “from a scratch”, and observers do not rule out compromise solutions, provided no industrial actions are launched during the dialogue.
China’s stock market rose in Friday session due to the pick-up of consumer and technology sectors, offsetting declines in commodity companies, but major indices showed the biggest weekly drop in three months.
Reacting to initial losses, “blue chips” index CSI300, which tracks the value of securities of the largest companies traded in Shanghai and Shenzhen, rose 0.5 percent to 3.174,90 points by the end of the session. The index of the Shanghai Stock Exchange Shanghai Composite added 0.2 percent and closed trading at around 2.959,24 points.
Last week the CSI300 fell by 3 per cent, while the SSEC lost 3.9 percent, showing the worst result since the end of week of January. The index, which tracks the shares of the commodity sector, fell 2.7 percent on Friday after the shares of steel companies, gold and copper producers.
Hong Kong stock market closed Friday in the red, responding to yesterday’s decline in the US stock market for the first time in four sessions due to disappointing quarterly results of US “blue chips”. The index of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Hang Seng fell 0.7 percent to 21.467,04 points. Index of Chinese companies traded in Hong Kong, lost 1.4 percent, closing at 9.120,91 points.Week Hang Seng rose 0.7 percent, and HSCI dropped 1 percent.
The Bank of Japan, which introduced a negative interest rate in January 2016 on deposits of financial companies in the Central Bank, is considering the possibility of supporting the banks by providing them with loans at a negative rate, reports Bloomberg, citing informed sources.
According to the sources, this step can be taken simultaneously with a significant reduction in central bank interest rates on deposits in the Central Bank, which now stands at minus 0.1% per annum.
It is most likely that the loans at a negative rate will be issued under the program known as Stimulating Bank Lending Facility, the sources noted. Currently, banks receive loans under the program under the zero rate.
Experts believe that the addition of such a tool in the arsenal of the Bank of Japan will reflect positively on the national economy. At the same time, banks have already suffered from the introduction of negative rates, may be faced with the requirements of the borrowers to reduce the markup to the agreed interest rates on loans, the sources noted.
-
March industrial production in the US fell more than expected, battering the optimism about the health of the US economy, official data showed on Friday.
The Fed report showed that in the past month, the volume of industrial production decreased by 0.6% with a seasonal adjustments, more than the expected drop of 0.1%.
In February, industrial production fell by 0.6%, the figure was revised down from a preliminary estimate of 0.5%.
Processing industries production decreased 0.3% last month with taking into account seasonal adjustments, missing forecasts for growth of 0.1%, after declining by 0.1% in February, the figure was revised down from the initial estimate of growth at 0,1%.
The report also showed that the capacity utilization rate fell to 74.8% in March, compared with 75.3% a month earlier. The February figure was revised down from the original estimate of 76.7%.
Analysts had expected a smaller decline to 75.4%.
The EUR/USD was trading at 1.1282, up from 1.1273 in anticipation of the release of the data, the pair GBP/USD was trading at 1.4174, up from 1.4155, while the pair USD/JPY was trading at 108.90, bounced from 108.84 support earlier in the session.
USD index, which shows the value of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, was held at 94.79, down from 94.86 the day before the report.
Futures on US stock indexes pointed to a lower Wall Street opening. Futures on the Dow fell 0.10%, futures on the S & P 500 fell by 0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.24%.
On the commodities market, gold futures were trading at $ 1230.70 an ounce, compared with $ 1233.00 before the release of the data, while crude oil futures were trading at $ 40.51 per barrel, up from $ 40.38.
The greenback weakened in Friday against its major peers due to falling oil prices ahead of a meeting of producer countries in Doha, as well as the weak data on consumer sentiment in the US which have reduced risk appetite, causing investors to buy safe currencies such as the Japanese yen .
The dollar index, which tracks the value of US currency against a basket of six major rivals, unwind gains after the growth over the past two days. The decrease of US currency against the yen on Friday was the largest one-day decline in more than a week.
“Perhaps there is some concern about the Doha negotiations”, – said a senior currency strategist at Scotiabank in Toronto Sean Osborne.
Producers of oil, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia are scheduled to meet in the Qatari capital on Sunday, April 17 to discuss the freeze of production close to current levels and solve the problem of oversupply on world markets.
Source : BrokerArena
-
Commodity rout deepends, Russia increases Oil production
Traders and investors are massively dashing their bids on crude as rumors and expectations can not anymore underpin the market. Saudi Arabia ruined the hopes for fundamental improvements after prince Mohammed Al-Saud hit the wires in Friday saying current disunity between Iran and other Oil producing nations makes it impossible to freeze output. The news left energy market without footing, sparking off volatility and sending prices down 4 percents in Friday. The drop deepened in Monday, WTI lost 2.88 percents, Brent tumbled 2.48 percents.
Now markets don’t expect anything positive from Doha talks which will be held on 17 April. Iran Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh said he’ll attend meeting in Doha if he “finds time” meaning country will stand its ground on production freeze matter. The country already has boosted output over 2M barrels with 250K growth in March comparing to February production pace. The efforts of Russia and Saudi Arabia to stabilize market by freezing output on January levels he called a “positive step” which should help to balance prices.
Some analysts was repeatedly warning that rally is not fundamentally supported and markets will inevitably fall into retracement after it. Current decline could be a correction to fundamentally grounded levels which are, considering a drop in US production, should be somewhere $35.
Meanwhile Russia continue to add efforts in a fight for market share, producing 10,912M barrels in March which is 0.3% more than in February. Its the biggest output level not seen from 1987 year (11,5M barrels).
Baker Hughes weekly report showed 10 Oil wells were stopped in US last week, with total 362 rigs operating. US continues to cut down production capacities increasing imports of cheap Oil EIA report showed last week.
Tomorrow crude market will be waiting for API data which will show the change in US Crude inventories. Further growth of crude reserves will worsen oversupply concerns and probably pave the downward way for Oil prices.
To the other news.
US Dollar decline resumes in Monday as traders shrug off after strong NFP release. EUR/USD gains 0.11%, GBP/USD +0.40%, USD/CHF +0.05%. AUD/USD drops 0.92% due to rout on commodity markets, USD/JPY -0.44% as Yen rallies on increasing risk concerns. USD/RUB rallies 1.37% though there are too many ruble bidders trying to wait through the Oil pullback. Withdrawal from ruble support may cause abrupt spike of the pair above 70 level.
Source : Brokerarena.com
-
Now is the right time to buy AUS200
AUS200
AUS200 has formed a dodji and a mallet, which have pressed against the ascending channel and the broken symmetrical triangle. We will be buying this asset at current prices:
GBP/USD
The GBP has formed a shooting star at point 3 of the daily descending channel:
The price has also pressed against the 1.4435 level, so as the daily candle closes with a shooting star, we shall sell the pair at current prices. As an alternative, we can put a pending order from the middle of the shooting star:
Source : Blog.Tickmill : Now is the right time to buy AUS200
Best Regrads
-
Deposit Small amount before NFP
and taking advantages from this volatile news .
Sell USDCHF and CADCHF because in TF H1 already formed continue pattern.
so lets hoping its valid
Market Moving Fundamental News
in Market News & Analysis
Posted
USD/JPY, EUR/USD: What The Yield Spread Says?
The US/Japanese real 10year yield spread moved back out to 50bp after the payroll data, but just eye-balling the yield spread and USD/JPY suggests we’d need a 20bp move up in US real yields to have any chance of seeing USD/JPY 110. My hopes of that happening haven’t revived on these figures, and as for the 50bp move in relative yields that would point the way to USD/JPY120... that’s going to take better US data and a massive change of heart by the BOJ. Maybe a risk-friendly set of US numbers is enough to keep USD/JPY from breaking 100 for now, but the most we can hope for is that a 100-105 range is enough to give the Nikkei a bid...
The EUR/USD chart isn’t any more encouraging. The 10-year real yield differential, at 1.02%, is exactly at the average of 2016, and did I mention that the EUR/USD average this year is 1.1150? ½% below that is probably a fair discount for the Eurozone’s proximity to the UK. I’d rather get my duration kick in the Eurozone than the US (or the UK for that matter, though that’s not exactly working out at the moment).