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tradingwizzard

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by tradingwizzard


  1. The impatient trader in real time

     

    Has a mental structure in the mind , of a complete trading idiot , a structure of discretionary trading , impatient entries , must have trades on at all times (just for buzz and addiction of action junkie) , must keep 24 charts open at same time , MUST have 4 to 5 trades open at same time .

     

    Reckless poor entries and risking money

     

    Careless entries very risky .clueless

     

    Mentally unstable person would impatiently jump into trades, in front of me

    and another trader, and buys at resistance /sells at supports.

     

    Mentally unstable defective?

    Keeps on suggesting poor trades , impatient anylysis

    Opens trades impatiently and enters poor trades

    Impatience leads to 50/50 entries WITHOUT AN EDGE.

    Impatience and does not wait for good retracement or good t/a anylysis

    Impatient person cannot read price action clearly and correctly in real time

    Impatiently exits/closes a trade, without reason

     

    Has ego, mindset, patience and other psychological issues

    He advises others to put on trades, when he suggests and at the time he suggests and wants others to jump in clueless trades like him, gets the Hump (chaos in his head) when people do not trade on his suggestions when he is wrong or right or his trades lose , then this head case gets upset and messes up system good trades.

     

    He makes early suggestions on trades (to suit his early entry styles , this is impatient ,the system requires late trades of higher probability ), the system requires confirmed signals with several confirmations , his signals are not system signals , he refuses and does not execute them because they are late (when the system signals are actually ready) , according to him.

     

    He has wrong mindset to look for high probability

    He just works from charts –ignoring System rules, signal approval rules and high probability checks, HE MESSES UP BECAUSE OF THIS AND DOES NOT GIVE SYSTEM SET UPS

     

    He ignores instructions on correlated pairs and instruments

    He losses approximately 35 pips a week for last 8 months

    He has been suspended from trading three times

     

    He was usually trading before ECB /FED /NFP etc, in his early days , like a clueless idiot.

     

     

     

    and....you're banned again....regardless how many times I asked you to watch out for it, you didn't stop....

     

    TW


  2. Hi there. I just registered a few days ago and would like to ask for help. I recently wrote a post but I have not seen it appear on Google or any of the serach engines.

     

    Can someone please tell me how to get my posts on Google by using Traders laboratory platform?

     

    Thanks.

     

    Hi there,

     

    You can't because your post is highly advertising and we're not allowing that here on TL, as you very well know, so I am not allowing it.

     

    Either remove any link/advertising material, or go through our Advertising department, or not waiting for the post to appear.

     

    All the best.

     

    TW


  3. I wish to share my journey with SLA and AMT here. Currently I have been posting at ET, but since most of the conversation is now on TL, I will post my updates here also.

     

    Todays update

     

    Wedensday 14th May 2014 NQ100 1 min chart review

     

    Today we didn't move much. We stayed within a reasonably tight area. Without trends the retracement entries didn't get far, and eventually I stopped for the day. Maybe the afternoon will bring a change, but for now we are back more or less where we started at the open.

     

    1. After the open we moved up to yesterday's low at 604 and were rejected sharply.

     

    2. Back to the morning low and turned again. We stopped below 610, the 50% point of yesterday's high to todays low, and turned again. Soon it started looking like a hinge.

     

    3. Another higher low, this time off the 50% point at 602. Chancing a long here with no expectations of going far, but only risking a scratch.

     

    4. Eventually it couldn't get through all the congestion above and fell to break the demand line. I guess there is a short here, but I didn't take it.

     

    5. Here we have a retracement for a short, which only makes it to the previous low before turning. Exited because I expected a furter rise in price due to the double bottom with the price from earlier in the morning.

     

    6. After the a double bottom we then had a retracement, so I marked a long here. It didn't get far, and was exited for a small gain.

     

    7. We can't make it up to the highs of the morning. The price moves sideways until the demand line is broken, with retracement for a short, which fails on the next bar.

     

    8. Again we can't get to the morning highs, and fall to break the demand line. Another short entered after retracement. This one is stopped out on the entry bar. Thats enough for today.

     

     

    Looking forward to see your experience....you have all my support here

     

    TW


  4. eurjpy-d1-forex-capital-markets.png

     

    HISTOGRAM shows how profitable taking this trade can be....

     

    Green bars are HIGH minus WEEKLY OPEN.

     

    Red bar are WEEKLY OPEN - LOW.

     

    The bars represent potential profit opportunities.

     

    Spread 4.2 on eurjpy??? boy that FXCM got a margin on you people huh?? :)

     

    TW


  5. Hurst concepts always interesting. Too bad the semantics and verbiage will drive the average trader away instead of pulling them towards understanding the concepts.

     

    I agree. The same with Gann's works and much of really good Elliott's.

     

    Just saying.

     

    TW


  6. Coming into the year, a favorite trade was to sell the yen on expectations of easing. Those expectations continue to be dampened and the yen is one of the top performers this year and the best G8 currency this month. There is talk that official channels are buying USD/JPY to limit the downside. If so, that’s a factor that can’t last forever."

     

    So, there is intervention since the beginning of the year to maintain Yen weakness.

     

    I think the current confrontation with Russia will cause them to throw in the towel, as far as weakening the Yen is concerned. And we will see USDJPY under 100.00 in the near term. It might even hit 90.00 depending on how far Russia/West is willing to take the fight.

     

    Strongly disagree here. Usdjpy is here to stay well above 100, with much, much higher levels to come.

     

    Just saying.

     

    TW:helloooo:


  7. 3 Peaks and the Domed House

     

    When markets are showing a strong uptrend, contrarian traders will generally be looking for opportunities to identify reversals and establish short positions. When traders are first starting out, some of the methods for accomplishing this might include an oversold reading on the Relative Strength Index (RSI), or a failure at a closely watched region of historical resistance. Trades based off of more complicated structures, however, can yield better results as you will need to see a larger number of elements acting in agreement with one another. One example here includes the 3-Peaks and Domed House pattern, which is more complex and relatively unique in that it combines multiple patterns into one. The advantages of this patterns can be seen in its ability to pick tops in an uptrend and to project the magnitude of the downside moves that are likely to follow.

     

    Ideal Example

     

    First, we look at the general structure of these topping patterns to make them easier to identify once encountered. These price intervals and relationships would mark an ideal formation. In real-time trading there can be variations but the overall shape and price points will need to be present in order for the patterns to be valid. If price points are missing or the structure is out of proportion, trading positions should be avoided as the pattern would be invalid. Here is the ideal structure:

     

    2uh22bm.png

     

    As you can see, the 3 Peaks and Domed House pattern requires the formation of two separate price shapes: an initial structure with three price peaks, and than this is followed by another structure that can be described as looking similar to a domed house. Next, we will break down these two components:

     

    The 3-Peaks Structure:

     

    • Starts at Points 1-2 which form a base
    • Sharp rise in prices occurs to Point 3
    • Points 3-7 make the “three peaks”
    • Price than drops in three unfolding waves, falling to Point 10

     

    The Domed House Structure:

     

    • The second base starts with a rebound from Point 10
    • The rally is composed of two corrective waves that run through Points 11-14 (without this double-correction, the beginning of the Domed House structure is not valid)
    • The left “wall” of the House is formed by the price rally to Point 15
    • This is than followed by a sideways movement (the “roof” for the “first floor” of the House) that runs from Point 15 to Point 20
    • Prices then rise to Point 21, forming the “left shoulder” of what will become a Head and Shoulders pattern through Point 25
    • Point 23 marks the highest price point at the “head” of the short term Head and Shoulders pattern (can also be thought of as the top of the Dome, or the “roof” on the “second floor” of the House)
    • Right “shoulder” forms at Point 25
    • A sharp drop then follows through Point 26 and Point 28, in a move that forms the right “wall” of the Domed House
    • Projected moves for the decline to Point 28 can be found at the price equivalent to Point 10

     

    Time Frames

     

    When we see a 3-Peaks and Domed House pattern unfold, it is important that the normal completion time can take longer than most of the price patterns that are commonly used in technical analysis. This is because most of the traditional price patterns are singular in nature, and our pattern here does not follow that limitation. For example, if we are using a daily chart, the 3-Peak element would generally take around eight months to complete. The Domed House portion of the pattern would generally require around seven months to complete. So it is important to remember that these types of patterns require patience in order to make sure that all of the required elements are actually in place.

     

    Of course, this pattern is not solely visible on the daily charts, and any time frame can be used when basing positions on these events. But what is most important is that each corrective wave unfolds in its proper place and that the structure is appropriately proportioned.

     

    Reverse Variation

     

    Technician George Lindsay is widely accredited with discovering the presence of this pattern but the introduced an additional variation, as well. Specifically, this means that the 3-Peaks portion of the structure does not necessarily have to precede the Domed House. As such, the ideal Domed House and 3-Peaks pattern would look like this:

     

    21kmpp5.png

     

    In this variation, you will notice that there are no significant changes to the generalized price moves other than the fact that the Dome comes first. It is important to note, however, that Point 1 and Point 28 are marked at the same price level. When determining your price target, your projection comes at Point 10, which will be equal to Point 28/1.

     

    Real-Time Examples

     

    Ideal examples are great for understanding what a broad structure is “supposed” to look like. But when we are actively trading, this might not work out perfectly and this can make certain structures more difficult to visualize and identify. Here, we will look at a real-time example of the trade at work. This example uses the more traditional structure, where the 3-Peaks portion of the pattern comes first.

     

    5efwv7.png

     

    In the example above, we can see the initial 3-Peaks unfold at Points 3,5, and 7. All three Points forming at the same level would be an extremely rare occurrence (especially in light of the following structures), so some leeway and flexibility needs to be given. What is most important is the number of corrective wave structures and the overall proportionality of both pattern elements. This does occur in the initial structures and we have now reached Point 23, which is the highest peak of the entire pattern. Traders should now be alert to potential shorting opportunities, and sell trades can be taken after prices break the neckline of the short term Head and Shoulders pattern. This comes as prices hit Point 26.

     

    Traders should wait for a small bounce in this area and trades should be executed at Point 27, with stop losses placed above Point 25. This is visible in the chart below, with the short trade entry seen at the thin red line, and the stop loss placed at the thicker red line.

     

    2z3qjrq.png

     

    Now that our short trade is established, we will need to start focusing on potential price targets. The projected gain is essentially the distance between the blue lines, which is roughly the distance from Point 27 to Point 28, which we would want to place safely above the projection area at Point 10. This can be seen in the chart below:

     

    244u0wo.png

     

    Conclusion: The 3-Peaks and Domed House Pattern Creates Opportunities For Contrarian Traders

     

    In the final chart, we can see that the initial structure (reaching the high at Point 23) was validated in a number of different ways. Not only did the chart elements meet the criteria for the 3-Peaks and Domed House but we have added factors as well. If we view these structures differently (as in the final chart), we can see that there are also instances important support levels start to break and a long-term uptrend channel becomes invalidated. All of these events point toward sell positions, and if we were to add an indicator reading (which might suggest that price conditions have become overbought), we would essentially have a perfect storm for new sell positions. Overall, this two-part price pattern is complex in nature, but when all of these elements are identified there can be excellent trading opportunities for those looking to establish contrarian positions near long-term highs.

     

    Hi Richard,

     

    Interesting to say the least but....

     

    not a bit too complicated?....where is the old buy the support sell the resistance? ;))))

     

    joking here...thank you for your great article.

     

    TW


  8. anyone has a sample code for the following?

     

    buy whn stoch<30 and exit 5 bars from entry

     

    if next day stoch is <30 buy another unit and exit 5 bars from entry

     

    if next next day stoch is <30 buy another unit and exit 5 bars from entry

     

    try code them but the second and third entry all exit at the first exit altogether rather 5 bars from entry

     

     

    Hi Johni,

     

    I am no programmer but I am sure someone here could help you....Bluehorse or Umma.....come on guys, share a hand here

     

    thank you

     

    TW


  9. For the first time in 200 years there are bald eagles nesting on the 3 rivers in Pittsburgh.

     

    This is a link to a day and night webcam that shows Mama and Papa eagle raising three eaglets. They catch and bring fish and other critters as food and in a couple of amazing loops chase off predators. A racoon foolishly tried for the babies and one look at mama eagle all puffed up ready to serve racoon to her babies and he was gone.

     

    This is a shot of my desk and one of those monitors watches the eagles 24/7.

     

    Enjoy.

     

    cheers

     

    UrmaBlume

     

    what on earth are you having in that jar? :)

     

    TW


  10. Hello,

     

    I'm not well acquainted with bonds, as my post will no doubt make clear . . .

     

    I'm trading a long term trend-following strategy. My reading implies that a significant contributor to the returns of trend-following funds is "collateral yield"; namely, the fund's cash is invested in bonds and this is used as collateral to fund positions in futures markets.

     

    I am not a fund, I don't trade futures, and my broker won't allow me to use bonds as collateral.

     

    Is there a way that I can simulate this by taking positions in a bond ETF such as BND or AGG rather than have cash sitting in my account earning nothing?

     

    Are bond prices dictated by anything other than their projected yield?

     

    In short, I'm trying to simulate what a billion dollar hedge fund might do, but with a 10k account :)

     

    Thanks for your help.

     

    Sara

     

    it's like you want to fly but have no wings.....but who says it's impossible?

     

    TW


  11. All due respect to your background in Macroeconomic stats etc, short term trading is about short term technicals and in Fx trading all of your technicals are price based with no consideration of volume, depth or order/money flow.

     

    In more fully disclosed markets, the trader who only uses price based inputs is at a disadvantage to those able to read volume velocity, balance and transaction size as well as market depth.

     

    As to your condescension based post, Trading Wizard, as an online poker player I find that those with such screen names as PokerStud, really aren't. Kind of like your 100 ton toy boat license.

     

     

    UB

     

    thank you, you're too kind.

     

    TW

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