christronic

BERKSHIRE HATHAWAY "Buffet" is public so no need for hacking or telescope. Just read press releases.

This is a great thread and something I have been interested in for a while now. The is no sure way of determining how a system will perform in the long run From what I have learnt the best way to test is walk forward optimization, and pick settings where the average setting around them produce a similar profit. It seem most systems will perform badly at some point, the question is How badly does a system have to perform before you stop using it.? That's why I believe money management is very important and can make a poor system perform ok. Is money management Over Optimising? I guess it could be, but it will stop you going broke.

It sounds like you are on track to finding you own style. You say you have EMA's to see trend switching, and you say the signals are too late. There is no perfect combination of indicators I have found, but I know if I want to trade in the direction of the trend EMAs are a good start. I have never found anything to pick tops and bottoms, except on a historical chart when it is of no use. Maybe look in the daily direction, ie EMA's crossed. Then search on lower timeframe for volitility breakout You should be able to code for eg VOL[0] > VOLMA(20)[0] // Looks for higher than normal volume Close[0] - Open[0] > 0.75*ATR(14)[0] // Looks for bullish volatility breakout

Yes the first post is very true, unfortunately as the is no regulation on what is put on to the world wide web, load of these so called systems have popped up over the last couple of years. It is a trap for the beginner trader, as I can imagine most have fallen fall in the past. It is human nurture to take an easy option, hard work doesn't stem well with most. Most of the systems prob do work under the control of a disiplened trader, but as you could imagine, the beginner trader gets impatient and changes systems. I am of the firm believe that it is vertically impossible to learn how to trade out of a book, you can learn the theory but in practice you need a mentor to guide you thru the hard time, which there always is. To become a trader you need to learn that it is hard, even if it means spending $5000 on a sure thing system. And learning that it is nothing more that a few standard indicators. We all start as a beginner trader and buying an expessive system is nothing more than buying an expensive lotterie ticket, the chances of it working out are probably the same odds. The difference is if you applied the disiplin needed you would have a much better chance. I don't blame people for falling into the quick rich trap, I only blame the stupid people who fall for it more than once.