Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

malverd

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Content Count

    9

  • Joined

  • Last visited

Posts posted by malverd

  2. Posted

    What methods are you using for 70% profitable?

     

    Thanks

    For me I always trade in multiples of 2. Either 2, 4 6, 8 or 10 cars.

     

    I take 1/2 of the position at my 1st target. 10 ticks for YM, 4 for ES, 12 for NQ and 5 TF.

     

    Place the pstop with the ticks gained (from breakeven to risking 50%) from the 1st target and let the 2nd target trade. In fast moving or ranged bound markets, I'll play it fairly tight.

    I average about 70% profitable, 20% breakeven and 10% non-profitable

     

    Trade Well!

     

    BigAl

  3. Posted

    Thanks this helped clear the shapiro effect up. One thing, shouldn't the signal at point 'c' have been the large candle to the left of the one you marked?

     

    Thanks

     

    I was going to wait until a later thread to discuss this, but since you brought it up here, dbntina, I will talk about it now. The question is, when price action retraces to the 1st SD or the VWAP which is a signal to pull the trigger, how would you know not to do it?

    I use a simple technique due to Larry Pesavento which he calls the "Shapiro Effect". The Shapiro Effect states "If a trade is good now, it will be good in 5 minutes".

    Don't take this statement literally, but use it interpretaively. I use it in the following way. Let say you are looking for a short entry on a retrace to the 1st SD or VWAP. The first UP BAR that touches the SD is your signal. Don't pull the trigger yet. Apply the Shapiro Effect. Wait for a down bar that confirms the signal. A confirmed signal would be one that drops below the low of the signal bar. Then pull the trigger.

    Look at the attachment. This is the same 2 minute chart of NQ for Aug 10 that you posted dbntina.

    At point "a" we get a signal to go short at the 1st SD. Apply the Shapiro

    Effect. There is no confirmation of the low on the next bar. Don't pull the trigger. It took 7 bars later to confirm that low, which was below the 2nd SD. I usually don't trade there.

    At point "b" (the VWAP) we get a signal to go short. Apply the Shapiro Effect. 2 bars later there is a confirmation of the low of the "b" bar. Pull the trigger short.

    At point "c", we get a short signal at the 1st SD. Apply the Shapiro Effect. There is no confirmation of the low. Don't pull the trigger.

    At point "d" we get a signal to go short. But there is no confirmation of the low. Don't pull the trigger.

     

    You can see how this works. Applying the Shapiro Effect will keep you out of most bad trades. The downside of course is you might miss some good trades.

  4. Posted

    Hi,

     

    I am running the Thinkorswim platform. Their VWAP has a setting that allows for time frame. Daily, Weekly, Monthly.

     

    If I set it for daily I set the chart to 1 minute daily and then 1 minute weekly then the PVP is the same. But all of the other values, SD and VWAP are different. Why is this and what would be the better timeframe to use?

     

    It seems using weekly would allow to hold trades after hours. Because on the daily, when the new time period begins, the standard deviations reset & are really small compared to the prior session.

  5. Posted

    Jerry,

     

    I haven't seen you mention the following scenario:

     

    For long:

     

    The VWAP is above the PVP and lower SD1, SD2, etc. is also above the PVP.

     

    I know you mention bounces off of the upper SD1 and VWAP are high probability trades.

     

    But I watched you video on the symmetrical YM trade and obviously price was not above VWAP on that trade.

     

    Would it be a high probability trade to take bounces off of the lower SD1 and SD2?. I realize that price is not above VWAP.

     

    Also in that YM trade, you mentioned that you were using no stop loss. I assume that you were using a “stop” based on your full risk tolerance. If the trade had not worked out and the VWAP went below PVP, would you have exited the trade immediately?

     

    Thanks

  7. Posted

    Jerry,

     

    I haven't seen you mention the following scenario:

     

    For long:

     

    The VWAP is above the PVP and lower SD1, SD2, etc. is also above the PVP.

     

    I know you mention bounces off of the upper SD1 and VWAP are high probability trades.

     

    But I watched you video on the symmetrical YM trade and obviously price was not above VWAP on that trade.

     

    Would it be a high probability trade to take bounces off of the lower SD1 and SD2?. I realize that price is not above VWAP.

     

    Also in that YM trade, you mentioned that you were using no stop loss. I assume that you were using a “stop” based on your full risk tolerance. If the trade had not worked out and the VWAP went below PVP, would you have exited the trade immediately?

     

    Thanks

  8. Posted

    Jerry,

     

    I know you mention that PVP is used as a stop loss point.

     

    Let's assume a long position. Say your risk tolerance would allow you to place your exit point below the PVP.

     

    If price closes below the PVP, but hasn't hit your risk tolerance stop AND the PVP point hasn't changed, should you stay in the trade?

×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.

  I accept