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TheNegotiator
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Everything posted by TheNegotiator
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So yesterday we basically rejected the test lower of that important 1366.50 area. Perhaps tellingly though, the rally faltered and we closed barely higher. There seemed to be little consensus on 'value' given the lack of symmetry in the profile and three areas seemed to dominate:- 1384.00, 1379.75, 1371.25. It may well be worth watching out for these areas again today as this is probably where otf were trading. On the upper extreme of the session, 1384.75 didn't quite hold accurately although on the long-term profile the low volume price did move to 85.75 (just two ticks below the high) so I'm counting this as a hold. it looks like 1374.00 could well play a role at least early on as this was the high (and start) of a leg lower into yesterday's close and the overnight vpoc at least currently. My view is we probably won't do a great deal until after the fomc minutes although we could see some sort of test one way or the other before falling back to 'value' (somewhere between 70-80). Anyone have any thoughts today or any questions or just disagree with what I've written?
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prev +1.1% was revised to +1.3% ppi -0.2% exp +0.2%
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-0.3% .
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Okay so today focus is likely Retail Sales in a few minutes exp -0.2% prv +1.1% - this is expected to have dropped due to hurricane Sandy. Then the FOMC minutes are due later on. Oh yeah, Europe is kinda striking too :helloooo: Angela :doh: Here's a chart pre-retail sales:-
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Not especially, but given the fiscal cliff it could become important to watch maybe.
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Okay so I did a post today over in the Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion thread showing the bigger picture context of what has been going on in 2012 in regards to the progression of balances and reaction to subsequent developments created. My view is we probably need to go lower at some point but we could look back up first. Having said that, although we may have rejected that 66 area overnight, the push back higher has left a little to be desired and at the moment we are hovering around friday's low. Will be interesting to see where we open. More talk overnight on fiscal cliff but major importance is Greece. Rumours are that they'll be given €44bl in one lump sum and they have confirmed they'll be given until 2016 to meet budget deficit targets. The final decision on the next tranche of aid is said to be delayed until 20th Nov. Could be a news/rumour day which could well be dangerous. ACH though. German ZEW survey missed earlier (-15.7 exp -10.0) but no major releases for US today. Merkel, Stournaras (Greek finance minister), Monti & Cameron and Yellen are speaking today. Here's a chart:-
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
They are really just guesstimate guidelines at the moment. But if their timing coincides with with important prices and change in activity, they can become more useful to me. -
Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
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Bigger Picture in E-minis Discussion
TheNegotiator replied to TheNegotiator's topic in E-mini Futures
I thought I'd update the picture of the bigger picture chart to show how 2012 balances have changed. It might look quite busy but it should be quite simple to look at the different aspects individually. The far left black line profile is the regular trading hours (rth) profile for the whole of 2012 so far. I've drawn in magenta outline of where I see developments (numbered 1-7 for reference) and horizontally highlighted low volume in yellow (unfair prices) and high volume in green (fair prices). I've drawn a profile for each balance and where there are higher prices the profile is green and lower the profile is red. I've also extended the volume point of control (vpoc - highest volume price) for each profile until it's been intersected. A very simple conclusion is that this is the first lower balance since may-july. To me it makes little difference whether we are correcting or changing course in the longer term. I'll judge that as it unfolds. What I am seeing is that a drop back into development 5 was followed by a tight balance then a retest of higher value where dev 6 vpoc was rejected. Subsequently the whole of dev 5 has been explored without too much being found in the way of acceptable (fair and therefore balanced) prices bar the continuation of small range sideways action on veteran's day yesterday. Overnight the extreme low (prior unfair price) of dev 5 seems to have been rejected so far. This makes me think a retest of value for dev 5 might happen - although it's easier to target a certain area when then high volume is better defined than in dev 5. So it could well "reach up" anywhere up to say 1406.50 before deciding whether to balance, reverse, or push on higher. A drop below the 1366 dev low area could well mean a test of dev 4 "value" initially, probably at its vpoc (also 2012 vpoc) 1351.00 and the 2012 rth midpoint 1354.25. Below that there are various possible levels of support on the way to dev 4 low extreme at 1333.25. Anyway, make of it what you will but hopefully that gives a little context to what has and might take place going forward. -
The open auction out of range is often a good indicator of what might happen next - especially when anticipation is high. Clearly from the action from open we had a fair number of sellers, but there were a good number of buyers. The break higher gave sellers a problem and we see the consequence of that now. This doesn't mean buy because it will trend up all day. It could do. It could also run into resistance at 84.75 and make new lows. We'll have to see...:missy:
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Open auction out of range - careful on break either side
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Anyone else have any thoughts today or is it just me?
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Further sell-off yesterday and a thrust even lower overnight suggests the possibility of a negative RTH session today. Who knows for sure though. Support could come in between 60-70 centred around 66.50 possibly. Or the nature and speed of the move lower so far could see us scythe through these levels. Concern over the fiscal cliff and Greek shenanigans definitely look to have OTF liquidating to me. So what would the ultimate target be? On days which have the potential to move big (and I did say potential - ach, just as we could sell off we could also get responsive buying pushing us right back up) I like to zoom out and look for bigger possible targets. If you can imagine it, it's possible we could reach it. You must be able to shift mental gears if a sell-off (or rally) of magnitude gets underway. Below the 1366.50 the next logical test area is the 2012 midpoint 1354.25 and 2012 VPOC 1351.25. This is just a target area and shouldn't be used to think "where can I get long". If we trend lower and sell hard that area would make the range (if we opened around 68) well under 20 points which is not particularly a big range. Yes it could bounce there once then pummel through on the 2nd test but you just don't know. Anyway, I've put a chart together outlining some possible logical targets to the downside:- Make sure you stick to your plan and your max risk. It could be a brilliant or a terrible day. Good luck.
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The option is there when you click "Post Reply" above the text entry box.
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amazingly, cumulative delta is nearly back to 0 too!! (and we still haven't had a 3 point or larger selling rotation since the 84 low was put in just after 11:30am)
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market is working on that 98.50 now...
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Playing with Zigzag indicator whilst waiting for the market to make it's move:-
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Midpoint is also at 97.50 and a prior session vpoc is at 98.50 after that. Psychologically, they might want to retest the figure if we do push on.
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This seems like people are anticipating a reversal from this 95-97 area too much to me. Either we don't get there just yet and rotate lower to find more buyers or we smash straight through it
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After that, resistance comes in at 96.50 which is also conveniently(!!) the IB low.
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My bad. Just started new 30 bracket so have already stopped 1tf'ing. Still watching 95 as last significant swing high in this down trend.
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Looking at 95 to see if we can stop one-timeframing.
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Just doing a chart there to show the (counter) rotations of 3 points or greater today and we broke the biggest made earlier in the session! Anyway, here's the chart:- This is important considering we got to the extended target I mentioned earlier on the low side and moved pretty cleanly away. Not to say we couldn't test lower later on but we could stage a better attempt to retrace now. Just one possibility and ach. Remember that we are still effectively trending lower.
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Interestingly, the dollar index is teetering at a possible retracement support level.
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I don't know. Today so far we are trending although there have been several places where I felt they were trying to stage a reversal. My feeling is that there is a 'forcing action' in the market and it's trying to make other players capitulate. That would be the spike you're looking for potentially but it's difficult to be certain either way. It will be interesting to watch for the spike (possibly just happened) then see what subsequent action is like. :missy: