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Piptrader

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Posts posted by Piptrader

  6. Posted

    Carter,

     

    Below is a chart containing examples of what I look at each day. Keep in mind that I have the benefit of hindsight here... :)

     

    On the left side of the chart is a composite profile for 8/16 to 8/31. You can see from the normal distribution that a mature, short-term, balanced area has formed and imbalance is expected. While the bracket is forming, I would focus on fading the extremes of the bracket on weak internals. As price approaches the extremes I would monitor market internals and look for divergences between price and ticks/volume, etc. on a 1 min or 5 min chart. I would also look for divergences between the S&P and Dow, look at bid/ask info, and identify high volume nodes and single prints as key reference areas. I am always looking for a confluence of key reference areas.

     

    On 9/1, the market broke out of balance, but the higher prices were rejected, and the market traded back into the balance area. Within the next two days, the market returned to the lower limit of the composite profile and bounced off it. As the market traded, it left clues behind (i.e., it "tipped its hand"). So here is what I saw today and what I'll be looking at tomorrow...

     

    Today, 9/11, the market traded away from the high volume node of the previous 2 days and tested the lows of the composite of 8/16-8/31 and 9/7-9/8. This set up a high probability trade to the long side. Notice that the market will test one extreme, and if rejected, will often test the opposite extreme. This happens enough times to make it worth watching. In fact, this is one of my favorite trades. Notice where the market stopped today - in the single print area of 9/6 and 9/7. That is, on 9/6 there were single prints around 1314.75, and on 9/7 the market bounced off that area. Today it did the same.

     

    So what are the key reference points for tomorrow... The ES closed at 1312. To the downside, the key reference area is around 1309, the single prints from today, the high volume node of 9/7-9/8, and the high volume node of 8/16-8/31. To the upside, I will be paying close attention to how the ES trades around 1314.25, the high of today and 9/7, and the single prints of 9/6. I'll stop here, but I hope this gives you some idea of how I trade.

     

    [ATTACH]63[/ATTACH]

     

     

    I would like to ask a question regarding your market analysis. Your methods seem very interesting. How do you analyze to determine whether tomorrow will be a trending day or a consolidation day?

     

    Do you look for high volume price levels in either direction? For example, if a high volume area is close to the current price, would you expect prices to reverse at these points? If the current price is trading between two high volume areas that are relatively close to each other, would this be enough information to consider a consolidation day?

     

    Thank you.

  14. Posted

    Nymex to Pay Gold Traders $275 Million to Support Move Online

     

    By Matthew Leising and Ann Saphir

     

    Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nymex Holdings Inc., owner of the world's largest gold futures market, plans to pay members who trade metals about $275 million in stock to win their approval of around-the-clock electronic trading, three people with knowledge of the proposal said.

     

    Nymex had been negotiating for months with metals traders to allow electronic transactions while the open-outcry trading floor is open. The members resisted the switch on concern it would reduce their income. Nymex wants to act now because the Chicago Board of Trade's share of the 100-ounce gold market rose to 48 percent this month from 10 percent in December.

     

    "The Chicago Board of Trade has now driven the Comex kicking, biting and screaming into the 21st century,'' said Keith Bronstein, president of Chicago-based Tradelink LLC. "There is a consciousness at exchanges that gold is going to be a continually growing market because of its role as money.''

     

    The Nymex board voted two days ago to authorize the payment of 8,400 Nymex shares, worth about $386,400, to each member of the Commodity Exchange Inc. division where gold trades, according to the people. In return, the 712 Comex members will allow Nymex to offer electronic trading of gold futures during the U.S. day.

     

    The vote followed a similar decision in April that put the Nymex's energy contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's Globex electronic system. That agreement came after electronic trading on the Intercontinental Exchange Inc.'s ICE Futures took market share from Nymex's benchmark crude oil contract.

     

    Nymex spokeswoman Anu Ahluwalia declined to confirm or deny the vote.

     

    SEC Approval

     

    The Comex payments must still be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission and members of both the Nymex and Comex. Nymex members will probably vote on the plan as soon as possible, two of the people said, declining to be identified because the vote hasn't been made public.

     

    Nymex Chief Executive Officer James Newsome, who is preparing for an initial share sale to the public this year, wants to offer daytime electronic metals trading on Globex to stem gains made by the Board of Trade, which began offering a contract identical to Nymex's in October 2004.

     

    With gold touching a 26-year high in May and trading surging to records, the stakes of a battle over futures tied to the precious metal have multiplied, David Meger, senior commodities analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, said in an Aug. 3 interview.

     

    "With the Board's new electronic contract out there, everybody is fighting for a piece of the bigger pie,'' Meger said.

     

    Nymex Share Price

     

    Nymex shareholders are allowed to trade their shares, which are not yet offered to the public, among themselves. The shares went for $46 each as of Aug. 18. Based on that price, the payment to Comex members would be almost double the $157.1 million in sales Nymex Holdings reported in the second quarter.

     

    ICE Futures, owned by Atlanta-based Intercontinental Exchange Inc., broke Nymex's monopoly on U.S. oil futures trading in February, when it began offering an electronic version of the contract. ICE now accounts for more than 30 percent of daily volume in the U.S. oil futures market, though trading in Nymex crude has increased over the period.

     

    The move by Nymex to put Comex contracts on the Chicago exchange's Globex system might be too late, Bronstein said.

     

    "It remains to be seen how many gold-trading platforms we need,'' said Bronstein, who uses both markets to buy and sell gold contracts. "After the Comex transitions to the CME, the Board of Trade will still be the superior gold-trading platform.''

     

    To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net .

  15. Posted

    Find your edge in whatever market you intend to trade. Maybe the futures markets isnt for you?

     

    Stick with stocks, bonds, options, currencies, ect.. There are plenty of other markets that you can trade. Why do something you are not good at?

     

    It is definitely possible to make money in the futures markets. Plenty of peopl do so. You just need to find the right opportunity. Play the good hands and when in doubt fold.

  16. Posted

    "The Holy Grail"

     

    Most of use have our own definition of the holy grail in trading. Whether it is a strategy, indicator, or system, the holy grail is the key to successful trading. Im curious to know the various answers to this question.

     

    To me its having discpline. Anyone else have an opinion?

     

    Discipline is also number one on my list. That and consistency. Its too bad so many traders go looking for a magical indicator that will make them money. A perfect system can be handed to a trader with no discipline and he will lose money.

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