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Reaver

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by Reaver

  4. Posted

    Good work mate. I'm gonna get my Dobermann soon, I can't wait.

     

    Do you have breed specific legislation (BSL) in the USA? Over here in Aus they are introducing BSL which is really worrying. In my home state, they want to ban the breeding of dogs which have any possibility of passing on genetic defects such as VwD. That will rule out breeds such as my beloved Dobermann's, Rotweiller's etc..

     

    Some woman was recently bitten by a Rottie last week in Perth and now more calls are being put out to ban more breeds. Currently in Victoria American Pit Bulls are banned....Blame the owners not the breed I reckon! I hate it how politicians are quick to pass knee jerk legislation in relation to dogs.

     

    Yeah not aware of anything like that so far, but things change so fast here in the States, who knows what'll happen in the near future....

     

    Glad to hear about your new puppy on the way Nick! Dogs are awesome! I've always liked Dobermanns.

  5. Posted

    Very nice Reaver. I, too, have 2 rescue dogs and used to volunteer with a rescue organization when I was in Indiana. My neighbor here has a puppy pit, named Hooch. oh man, this dog is absolutely adorable and is STRONG!! He chewed through a thick metal rope one morning to come and visit my dogs. The owner leaves him outside all day long while he's at work....in the rain, in the sun, in the cold....well, cold so far. It's the guys first dog I think and I just realllllly hope he doesn't leave the dog outside in the winter.

     

    I started a new company recently, too, making organic dog treats from locally sourced (as local as I can get anyways) ingredients. Gonna be making a few hundred today to have a big Halloween marketing blitz around here.

     

    Hey man that sounds good, I'd like to hear more about it. If it's going to be internet based or anything like that, I'd be happy with doing some grassroots advertising for you man. I'd post up some ads here and there and tell people I know about it. Just something to help out. Not to mention, I'd place a few orders myself. Yeah if that guy leaves the dog out in the winter, you may have to take steps....we should hog tie him and stick him a meatlocker for a few days with some kibbles to eat. That'll make him do some more in depth contemplation next time. LOL

     

    Good luck with the business, get back to me about it!

  6. Posted

    Good to hear Reav! I'm a dog lover as well and it's nice to see a fellow TL member taking such a strong interest!

     

    Good luck with your new friend.

     

    Yeah I am pretty psyched. Poor thing was out on its own for who knows how long. Skinny as a rail. But he's living the good life now! Hope to be able to do more one of these days.

  7. Posted

    It's a Pit/Boston Terrier mix. It was a stray...the shelter said they were going to put it to sleep since it was part Pit Bull, according to the woman that found it and nursed it back to health. Still missing a bunch of its coat, and it was horribly malnourished...even after the woman fed him for two weeks, you can still see his ribs, it's pitiful...but man the dog stole my heart.

     

    He's about 2-3 years old according to the vets estimates. I named him Bogey.

     

    So that makes dog #3. I am going to start a rescue shelter for dogs, especially pits (since they get put to sleep almost automatically) once I get the money coming in. I don't care how much it costs. I am doing what I can now, but it's tough fitting three dogs into one house especially when one's a GSD. haha

     

    Just brought him home a couple hours ago, so I am pretty excited.

  9. Posted

    How dare you call me a clown! I resent that and demand an apology. I have been nothing but courteous and professional here.

     

    Doesn't every new member come out of the blue? Is this a private country club or an open forum?

     

    And who are you to tell me what to do here? If James has a problem with my posts, I'm sure he'll let me know.

     

    You're not getting an apology. Deal with it. I don't say things I don't mean.

     

    We'll see how it all pans out.

  13. Posted

    With all due respect to brownsfan and Reaver, I think there's more here than you are addressing. And I also think you guys are digging in your heels because you're not in the losing category and feel as though you want to defend your turf. It's absurd that anyone who writes a book on trading is going to titled it "Don't Even Think About Trading Because The Odds Are Enormously Against You." On the contrary, the vast majority of trading books hold out the carrot that anyone can turn $10k into big money by pitching "proprietary" indicators, war stories from very well publicized traders like Paul Tudor Jones, George Soros, and so on. People aren't interested in buying books that go against their egos and inflated self beliefs, I think.

     

    In fact, most people who embark on a trading career are very intelligent people who were successful in the prior occupations--doctors, lawyers, engineers etc., and think they can simply apply those traits to trading and bingo, the money flows in. And that is the rub. THE PEOPLE WHO ARE GETTING INTO THIS BUSINESS WERE IN THE TOP 10% OF THEIR FIELD AND SO THEY WERE VERY CONFIDENT THINKING THEY WOULD ALSO BE IN THE TOP 10% OF PROFITABLE TRADERS. It's not like they said, "damn the odds are stacked against me, so why should I bother?" On the contrary, they believe that all they need is a good computer, a few seminars, books, trading software program and the big money will roll in.

     

    All of these people are aware of the 90-10 "rule" and it doesn't faze them one iota. They believe if they apply the same traits that made them successful--hard work, experience, and perseverance--they will not make the mistakes of other who have failed. And despite all the testimonials that there is no Holy Grail, new traders think they are smarter and with enough tweaking, they will find it. In short, what makes them fail is their own EGO and false beliefs about the market.

     

    More to follow.......

     

    I see your point in that respect. They basically think that just because they are good at what they do, then they are on fire no matter what they do...Kind of like me saying that just because I'm a good trader, then I could also just take couple piano lessons, grab a book or two, and then drop by Carnegie Hall to make a few performances while sitting back waiting for the fame and recording contracts to roll in? Am I tracking here?

     

     

     

    I agree with you there, I was viewing it only from the perspective of someone who is making this their prime focus in life.....

  15. Posted

    The way I see it....since we are on the subject of gambling and playing probailities..why the hell would you bother trading against 90-95% odds?

     

    I agree with you Brownsfan....if I believed that 95% of traders failed....that would be some horrble odds to be playing...not a good start for a trader;)

     

    I think that 95% of people who don't treat it as a business fail...that is to be expected...just like any other punter....but out of those that are intelligent and genuinely have discipline and a drive for excellence...no, I believe that many more than 5-10% of those individuals succeed.

  17. Posted

    Price is either gonna go up....or it's gonna go down.

     

    I am going to be right or wrong....not worried about who is on the other side. All the theory and degrees in the world isn't gonna change price either moving up or down. I make the most intelligent decision I can...and back it up with a few bucks. That's trading.

  20. Posted

    Reaver, I believe the Absolute poker is the one that I was referring to (run by some indian tribe in canada?). The bots are playing in the limit games I would guess, and if they are 5 of the opponents in your game working in concert it can be unbeatable. I am not a player so I don't pay close attention, but thought it relevent to point out to anyone thinking about it.

     

     

    I appreciate your insight..yeah pretty sure it was the one run by the Indian Tribe in Canada...

     

    yeah I totally agree with you...and if I ever started suspecting anything, I'd be out like the fat kid in dodgeball.

     

    I wouldn't ever play for big stakes, like you said, no way would I risk big money on something that shaky....But small stakes, yeah no biggie...but if I do see anything, or if it turns out that I totally suck..I'll quit...not that big of a deal..just something I found fun and good cross training for trading...

  21. Posted

    Which site are you referring to? I heard about Absolute Poker getting hacked...but not anything else..

     

    Bots don't even remotely scare me...no more than automated trading programs do in the market. A computer will never outsmart me.

     

    You'll probably notice on most poker games, you can pretty much slaughter the bots with a little practice, at least on No Limit, playing limit has many more restrictions for creative thinking....people are harder at times....a bot is only as smart as the person who programmed it, and even the most powerful computers aren't sophisticated enough to actually "think" and rationalize, etc.....for computers, bots, etc it all boils down to 1's and 0's. yes's or no's.

  22. Posted

    And has this fact EVER been substantiated by anyone other than vendors selling the grail? And has this fact EVER been broken down by years of trading, size of account, etc.?

     

    My point is that a $5000 account for a newbie will probably 'fail'. A $10,000 account for someone that thinks they can just wing it will probably 'fail'.

     

    There's a distinction to be made by those that treat this like a real business and those that just wing it.

     

    And if the 'well known fact' could be substantiated and broken down by types of traders, I think the numbers would tell the REAL story. But since this 'almost all traders fail' has been created by vendors and now a part of every day trading, most believe this unproven myth.

     

    Who knows, it could be that 98% of all traders (wannabes and biz owners) fail or it could be that those that actually treat this like a business fail 25% of the time. If there's anything out there suggesting otherwise, I have yet to see it.

     

    In my years trading, I've learned a few things and one of them is that numbers can easily be manipulated to suit your agenda. Unless YOU perform the analysis, or it's being done by an unbiased 3rd party, take it for what it's worth. It's like the drug trials that show a certain drug helps with weight loss and it turns out that the maker of the drug funded the multi-million dollar study. I wonder how that study will turn out... Or how about that many of the muscle magazines out there are actually run and operated by the supplement companies. I wonder why there's so many ads and articles about how great those supplements are... You see where this is going. When trading VENDORS have created this scare tactic of failure, it serves their agenda perfectly.

     

    The best example I have is that while I was a stockbroker, we had brokers broken down into 4 segments. And we tracked this way b/c IT MADE SENSE. Segment 1 was the newbies. We knew that at least 80% of them would fail within 12 mo's. As you can imagine, the further up the segment scale you went, the more likely you would make it as a broker. Actually, by segment 3 it was a matter of how much $$$ you would make.

     

    Trading is no different - every trader can be broken down into segments based on profitability. Let's say segment 1 is those that net out less than $50k per year. Well, I would guess that a good portion of Segment 1's fail. Is it fair to group segment 2's, 3's and 4's with the segment 1's? Of course not. But, as soon as you break traders out based on profitability (like a real business would), those numbers do not suit the vendors as much anymore. Vendors prey on new people and selling the grail. As long as they have you believe that most fail, that just helps them sell their product to you.

     

    As a new person to trading car, you need to realize this. It's similar to sports betting - I'm sure you've seen plenty of junk services out there selling the 'best picks' and you just sit there and laugh b/c you know what they are actually selling. And you see their marketing ploys as well - best picks in all of 2006, big weekend this weekend, etc. Again, preying on people like me that know nothing about betting, but interested in it. Trading is no different. This 'fact' that you quoted has never been proven by anyone. It's simply a marketing ploy that has worked beyond belief. It's like Nike - Just Do It. Trading - 98% fail, so buy my product that will make you part of the 2%!

     

    Great post Brownsfan, funny thing is I was thinking about that statistic for trading failure the other day as I was playing poker.

     

    I jumped online after playing for less than one full day and was placing consistently in the top 5-10 out of 50+ people.....of course it was play money, and of course I am sure a lot of the people playing were beginners or weak players...but then again, so was I and had probably been playing less time than them....I think just going in there with a trader's attitude and playing the probabilities was responsible for the high rankings I was getting.

     

    Of course, as the stakes get higher, etc then things will be a little different, but you have to remember this was literally my first day playing...I didn't even know how to play at all at the beginning of the day. I can see tons of potential.

     

    Once again, the key was to treat it like a business. It seems cliche, but it is true...so many people fail to do this, or make ignorant decision because they want to win it all up front. My approach in poker is to let Natural Selection run its course...and help out when I see a good chance to attack.

     

    Point is- approaching anything, whether trading or poker, is 90% about the attitude and having the backbone to treat it as a probabilities based business. Technique serves to improve this, but as I saw with my own eyes being a totally raw beginner......starting with the right attitude can give you a huge advantage.

  24. Posted

    Reav,

    I love PokerStars. It's just for fun for me right now. I seem to do well in the 5/10 no limit hold'em tables, but this is just play money and I realize that. I enjoy playing in local tournaments with a low entry fee.

     

    I enjoy the rush of playing poker, esp when you catch that A high flush and need to extract as much $$$ from the table as possible.

     

    There's some serious correlation between trading and playing poker as evidenced in the other thread, so it's a nice transition.

     

    Let me know how it goes if you start playing for real money on there as I'd like to know how that goes. I'm tempted to give myself a little 'allowance' from my trading income to put into a PS account and see how it goes...

     

    I am with you on that one man.

     

    Right now I like Bodog, and will check out pokerstars as well. I am definitely no expert, as I just started playing. But seem to be doing alright. See, I was thinking that once the confidence is there to start playing with real money, then we as traders will have an edge just for the simple fact that we have already cleared the "real money" hurdle for the most part...you know? We have learned to make decisions in spite of there being real money on the line....one of the main reason traders and gamblers fail, the money causes them to act irrationally....There are more reasons I think someone who has been through the Trading Crucible and survived can have a major edge on the other players...Of course at some of those sites, especially Bodog, since they're a sports book, you'll have a bunch of psycho gambling addicts who can really throw money around without batting an eye. lol So I guess it all depends. lol

     

    I'll definitely let you know how it turns out. Like you said, I was thinking about in time giving myself a little allowance to see what happens...exploit the real money edge as a trader, if it can be found to exist...so far it's just a theory. But hey that would be a nice side income and just plain fun. Especially if we could get some of the guys here in a room and compete (play money or real either one would be fun).

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