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MidKnight

Market Wizard
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Posts posted by MidKnight


  1. On 2/5/2020 at 1:28 PM, thalestrader said:

    Hard to believe its been almost 11 years since we had a great year in this thread.   I think of you guys still.  I wish we could have a reunion week here for any of you who are still trading ... or even if you're not.  Maybe the first or second week of June 2020.  If interested, drop a note here and perhaps an email address if you don't plan on checking back.

    No more forex for me - just stocks, ES, and NQ.

    As always,

    Best Wishes,

    Thales

    Howdy Doody!

     

    I haven't been here in years. Dre gave me a nudge about your post otherwise I would never have Known... I'm keen to catch up will PM you and get in touch with Kiwi

     

    Trading Hang Seng Futures. Mostly very short-term combined with index option swing trades.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  2. Jpenny,

     

    Ignore the crap that oily posts. The concept of "optimum" when it comes to trading is hindsight talk and oily does that sort of talk better than most.

     

    Professionals make mistakes all the time and often are not as professional as we are led to believe. How many banks and hedge funds have been decimated over the years due to "professionals".....many.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  3. I somewhat agree and disagree with your article. While I have made heavy use of scaling-in for my Hang Seng trading in the past, I do it very rarely nowadays for the following reasons:

     

    • the practice shifts the methodology focus from being right rather than towards expectancy
    • ego can become covertly intertwined with ones trade ideas because the focus is on being right
    • as mentioned, if it only fills partial size and goes to targets you only get small profits. This is a big problem for a couple of reasons. First, one needs to track which happens more often. If it is quite common to fill your first entry and then go to target this will really hurt your bottom line. Secondly, it covertly teases the mind to want to be filled on your subsequent entries so you are at full size for a good pay day. This can be a huge risk to your trading mentality.
    • to me, it isn't really following the market. The entries are out of blind faith.

     

    Yes doing a scale-in approach can give an extremely nice win%, but in my personal trading it produces less money than a much lower win% method. Readers need to do the work and assess it for themselves within their own method.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  4. My dear Uncle F* Siuya - I agree that daytraders are focused on the intraday trends rather than the larger trends. As I'm sure you know, part of that focus comes down to wanting to combine the effects of leverage and frequency to enhance gains. As a daytrader that tries to utilize the big picture within my trade ideas, I have at times missed fought great intraday trends as I'm trying to get into the big picture trends. When this happens, I start to question how much value the big picture has in day trading and maybe its best just to focus on reading the flow. After all, if one could read the general intraday sentiment then they would align with the big picture when the time was right. All sounds good, but I so far, have failed to find a way to stay in alignment with the current intraday sentiment in a timely manner. I still explore though.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  5. Yes, I have some other ideas but it probably depends on your market. If your question is towards a stock index, then I'd strongly suggest adding some breadth: tick, vix, prem, custom breadths are some examples that are worthy of exploration.

     

    I think JPennyBags comments really depends on the market one is trading and I personally hate the advice of only trading with the trend as it is too vague and general a comment that does not transfer well to all markets or timeframes that the trader may be trading. Over my early couple years I subscribed heavily to "trade with the trend" and it did more harm than good for me. It wasn't until the subprime high volatility era and my switch to fading extremes that I started to actually turn consistently profitable. Now I don't trade like that much anymore today, but my point is just that conventional "wisdom" may not be so wise for you, in your market, and in your timeframe.

     

    If your study shows conter-trend scalping from extremes is good, then by all means do it. I can scalp very well fading extremes WHEN volatility is high on the Hang Seng Futures, but if volatility is low I get destroyed. That is my own short coming and your mileage on your timeframe and in your market may vary. Do the study. It takes time so be patient.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  6. Focus on what you are doing right, and do more of it.

     

    Spend more time learning from your best trades than focusing so heavily on your mistakes. We all lament our errors and sometimes wallow in our regret to continue our theme of self abuse. Move past that. Acknowledge your errors and study them, but put more emphasis on what you are doing right. Over time, you will develop a sense of what your best trades look like and how they should/could look after entry.

     

    Kiwi was persisting with me in our small private chatroom to read the book 'The Playbook' by Mike Bellafiore. Having read heaps of trading books and being a stubborn mule, I was making up excuses not to read it. "Is there anything new in it???" "Give me a summary :)" etc etc. In essence, the author is very wordy and babbles a bit but if you can get past that, the book has great content on reviewing trades and focusing on what you are doing right. Highly recommend it.

     

    Do more of what you are doing right.

     

    Agree 100%. but the problem is a lot of people are drawn to it as a get "Rich Quick" scheme.

    It is a Craft ( I was going to say trade, but that would be like a play on words), that must be studied and honed.

     

    Yep, exactly. All trading is a craft that takes time to develop. Even system traders, learning how to develop systems is a craft that involves discretion.


  7. Give yourself TIME.

     

    Exploring markets, timeframes, methodologies, developing and refining a plan are all going to take time. Keep your expectations on how long it will take realistic and it will reduce the pressure you put on yourself. I've never met a self taught retail trader yet that didn't take some years before starting to turn profitable. Myself took 4 years. Everyone is different.

     

    Be patient with yourself, and give yourself enough TIME.


  8. Develop a plan.

     

    As one goes on their trading development journey and they are exploring a variety of markets, timeframes, and methodolgies - you'll need to develop a plan. The plan doesn't have to be some objective extremely specific set of rules. It can be a loose set of guidelines that makes sense to you that gets refined over time with your experience. The goal is to start acting consistently so you can get consistent results.

     

    There will probably be times that you violate the plan for whatever reason and I think that is normal, especially for more discretionary plans. But the key is to consciously violate it rather than getting lost in the throws of the market or in ones emotions. If you are consciously violating the plan you will note it in your daily review and over time you will collect enough data that may or may not indicate that the violation improves your plan.

     

    Develop a plan today.


  9. Find your niche.

     

    Steenbarger talked about this lots in his "Enhancing Trader Performance" book and I think its important. Different markets are more favourable to different timeframes and methodologies. You need to blend them into an approach that suits you. Exploring this will take time but will be worth it in the long term. Be patient in your exploration.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  10. Relentless review.

     

    Be honest in your review and try to put yourself back in the past. Visualize it as if its real-time. Review every day at the end of the day. Review every week on the weekend (trade log and your charts). Review your accurate trade log at the end of the month. Be sure to note what you did right as well as where you could improve.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  11. Hiya,

     

    Your put a lot of effort into that post and even more effort into your research :applaud:

     

    Quite a lot of what you wrote is beyond me .... :doh:

     

     

    Would you want to increase position size when volatility is high?

     

    I personally would not want to, but that is because I'm looking to trade for the duration of the high vola cycle and sit through the cycles. I'm just a short-term day trader though. My risk is defined by the structure on the chart and as a result, that is adapting to the current volatility. I know you are swing trading, so risk management is probably quite a different beast.

     

    Many thanks for the in depth post.

     

    With kind regards for the new years,

    MK


  12. My first deposit was ~8000 USD with tradestation but quickly closed that and moved to Interactive Brokers because their Forex offering 9 years ago was pathetic and their customer service was useless. They didn't even offer Eurex data back then. IB had it all and was cheaper.

     

    Happy new years,

    MK


  13. I suppose that in an ideal world, what you want to do is operate that strategy on a vast scale with insane leverage, banking your 98% gains along the way, and then have someone bail you out when the one strong adverse move comes along . . .

     

    I'm pretty sure this approach has been used fairly recently, but I can't quite think where . . .

    :)

     

    BlueHorseshoe

     

    That would be ideal, but in the real world I'd probably just run the system on something like zulutrade or myfxbook and solicit followers until the strategy blows up :haha:

     

    But seriously...if people under leverage themselves you can just add to your positions forever and enjoy a 100% win strategy. However it will probably make less money than a real edge with a small initial risk using leverage in your positions. The original posters wants to be right and not rich.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  14. Take profit 10 pips

    Stop loss 90 pips

     

    Thats should just about get you a 90% win rate

     

    You'll lose money, but you'll have the 90% win rate

     

    There are literally thousands of strategies out there with win rates in excess of 90%. Its not difficult to achieve at all

     

    Indeed its true - not hard at all. I have explored martingale grids that achieve over 98% wins but it only takes one strong move to wipe you out. To the original poster, %win isn't as important as one may think. Expectancy combined with frequency within your drawdown tolerances is where you should look IMHO.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  15. Hello all,

     

    Could someone let me know if the KOSPI has any advantages over say trading the ZN (US treasuries), ES or other popular contracts? (indexes, currencies, financials)

     

    Even in the Asian session what are the advantages/ drawbacks over trading the ASX200 index future (SPI)?

     

    I have traded intra-day for a long time but never on the KOSPI. I had a person contact me in order to pick my brain about order flow/ volume analysis intra-day and I wanted to make sure I didnt put him in the wrong direction due to the different characteristics of this market.

     

    You can be as general or as technical as you want. (Footprint, price action, volume, order flow, DOM, market/ volume profile, TPO, cumulative delta, liquidity data bank analysis) I know all of the theory.

     

    Thanks.

     

    OFM

     

    The SPI is thin. KOSPI has really good volumes that are probably only eclipsed by the Osaka traded Nikkei in the Asian session. The options on the K200 are tiny and are super heavily traded - more volume than the futures. The futures are a fairly big contract somewhere around the $25 USD / tick area.

     

    I have watched it off and on, but in Asian futures I have tended to trade N225 or HSI - no real reason other than personal preferences.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK


  16. All of what Urmablume said is true. There is reason this guy has been banned from many a forum over the 10+ years of his trading forum posting. Not to mention, but this "billionaire trader" is yet to make a net profit in his live calls thread - although he makes a handsome profit in his after the fact hindsight weekly summaries. Zero value added. He posts for ego and some sort of side agenda - very professional of this "pro".


  17. It exposes all the frauds who have been claiming to be xpurts and professional traders hanging around forums , as nothing more than forum scammers selling stuff on lies.

     

    These results are very good and not fictitious , they are based on a trading system I have created and am trading on a live account,It proves , if you know how to trade , yoiu can make serious money , if you can't ...remain a scammer.

     

    It makes all you scammers feel like frueds' cases.

     

    Have you checked out your own trading forum history lately? Google yourself. You are HIGH on the list of frauds and scammers. You've been posting the same shit for more than 10 years on all the trading forums. Constantly trying to recruit, "secret" indicators or methods, talking like a big shot. Never posting any real results, always after the fact. Anyone could do what you are doing in this thread posting fictitious weekly summaries, in fact, this is what the frauds and "experts" (note the spelling) do.

     

    Your fictitious weekly summaries posted in hindsight prove nothing.


  18. You say she is a family member so I guess you know her pretty well. Then you say a scalping method is that because you think it would be easy to teach or because it would suit her the best. Whatever she learns, it has to suit her personality....I don't think you'd have her do your errands for you, you need someone to talk to - remember ;)


  19. ^^ Me too. I know what you mean about getting weirder too. I don't fit normal society much anymore whereas at one point I did. However, despite fitting in with society at one point, that was also the point where I was dreaming of breaking free -- so fast forward 9 years and here I am.

     

    I personally need to keep up a daily routine. When I break this routine or when my day is rushed and running behind schedule then my day trading will usually suffer - especially the first few trades.

     

    I need to go walk my dogs for an hour or two every morning. This puts me in touch with nature and gets the blood pumping. It lets my subconscious work away at any crazy trading explorations I have - and I _always_ have some of those on the go. Or maybe its a mental review over the previous days trading mistakes that really irritated me.

     

    I need to muck around on the property for an hour or two. I need to be at the computer about an hour before the open. Pretty much no exceptions to this stuff every day - even in the rain or snow.

     

    Yeah, I'm weird. Yeah, I love it.

     

    With kind regards,

    MK

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