NoSquigglyLines

Frank, Just wondering if you've done any work using the IV of the ES options instead of VIX? Thanks

I was more picking up on what you wrote to be honest. You stated that Omni's answer was cryptic and convoluted and you preferred the simple straightforward and efficient. From what I read on this board and others, many traders are looking for simple concrete rules to help them understand/trade the markets. And when those rules 'fail' they begin a further search for 'better' rules. Throughout Markets in Profile it is stressed that context is paramount, and the example given that a fish flopping around the dock looks ridiculous until you see the same movement in the context of water. I believe that is the point Omni was making when describing Dalton's approach. You can use TPO or Volume or whatever method you like, and you can ascribe some rules to them, but you must be aware of the bigger picture and view everything in context. And when the market does not behave as you anticipated, you should view that as important information that you need to process and make sense of, rather than simply a rule that has failed. I've attached an image showing the NQ from 15th/16th June and the Globex session between them. In the Globex session (white TPOs) the green value area is TPO based and the pink value area is volume based. Is it better to use TPO, Volume, or be aware of both? I guess this is probably a cryptic and convoluted answer ... so please accept my apologies for that. I hope this answers your question but I suspect it may just highlight our different views. My basic point is that throughout both his books Dalton frequently opines that, in his view, trading is rarely simple and straightforward and those who treat it as such will probably fail. So when you write that his way of looking at things seems cryptic and convoluted, and you prefer simple straightforward and efficient, I think you are placing yourself in that majority he describes. Disclaimer: Many times I read posts on forums that are written as if they are from the perspective of a highly experienced millionaire trader, imparting their wisdom to all whilst sipping cocktails from the deck of their sunseeker. In most cases another thread tends to reveal that the writer in fact just took up trading last week. I am no millionaire trader, and I don't own a yacht. Just trying to make sense of all this like most others on this forum.

I don't mean this to be inflammatory but I believe you may have missed the point of Dalton's writing and teaching.

FWIW, I just got an email advertising a free webinar he is doing tomorrow. Webcasts Details I know nothing about him or his services, just passing on the info.

I don't know the stats or what market you refer to, but I would suggest the opposite is true i.e. majority of the time the high or low from the first hour will be broken. If you mean that it's likely one of the extremes from the 1st hour will hold then I would agree to an extent but not anywhere near 95% of the time. For example, there is a post on TL somewhere that suggests that the high/low for the ES is made in the first hour 66% of the time.

Frank, Have you ever done any similar work with other indices e.g. NQ?

Thanks for the posts, will have a look at these ideas.

Sorry to post this but I've done a fair bit of googling and can't find any real discussion on this. If the discussion exists then please point me towards it. I'm trying to determine the best period to look at MP charts for the Eurex markets. If we take FESX as an example - the trading hours are detailed here http://www.eurexchange.com/trading/products/IDX/STX/BLC/FESX_en.html?mode=trading_hours Pretrading starts at 7:30 CET RTH Trading starts at 7:50 CET (but most people seem to state 8am CET as the RTH opening) RTH closes at 22:00 CET Post-market continues until 22:30 CET My datafeed gives me data from 08:00-22:00 CET With MP the start time and end time are more important because of IB, VAL areas etc. What are people using for the session times with the Eurex markets and MP. My example is FESX, but the question applies to all Eurex markets e.g. DAX, Bund, Bobl, Shatz. Finally, beacuse of the large trading hours, does anyone look at a longer IB. For example, in the Emini S&P the day's session will very rarely exceed 4x the IB. However, in FESX on 12th March using 08:00-22:00 CET the session was almost 13x the IB. Hope to generate some discussion on this. Thanks

Thanks for posting Frank, finding this interesting.

No problem. One thing to bear in mind is that if you are planning to use value charts or if you do already, esp intraday, then it might be interesting to look at the price action profiles i.e. "how often does a +/-8 reading actually occur on a certain timeframe". This might give you more or less confidence in taking the signal. Just my 2c

Just PMd you now, many thanks.

Is there any way I can change my username in TL? I've looked in the profile but it doesn't seem possible?

I don't have TS so I've no idea if you can export data, I would have thought so though. If you can't do this then I could post a spreadsheet for the market and periodicity you're looking at if you post your findings here. I don't use Val charts but it might be useful for others.

No idea if you can do this in TradeStation, but if TS allows you to export the data then you can do this type of analysis in excel. See attached pic, this isn't Val charts, but you get the principle. If you google things like frequency, bin, histogram, standard deviation, excel then it's pretty easy to do. Post back if you have any questions.

Cool thanks, I'd seen the other two but hadn't spotted the Gramza one. If anyone does find an alternative source, the following would be interesting. 07/06/06 Trading Using Fibonacci Tools, Analytics & Technicals Carolyn Boroden BGTRU9 View 08/16/06 Go With The Flow! Find Reversals by Combining Momentum Bars with Pitchforks Tim Morge W46W34 View 01/17/07 Pivot Point Analysis - History & Formulas (1 of 3) John Person X8R2X5 View 02/28/07 Pivot Point Analysis, Part 2 John Person 88AWEX View 03/07/07 Pivot Point Analysis, Part 3 of 3 John Person 9Z4DH3 View 02/15/07 Successful Business Planning for Futures Traders Joe Mertes CDH9EG View My main interest is Market Profile but as a sort of side project I was interested to look at other ways of determining levels to see if I could find any useful confluence. I'm aware all these guys have websites.