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motorway

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    Raymund
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    Edwards
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  1. I can not see your charts ? In the Wyckoff's course there are sections where he moves between the 1 and 3 reversal charts taking note if there are any differences in column widths. IE: THE SAME ! ( there is a good hint ) In general you look for the areas of congestion. You derive upside counts from support ( the Lowest row even if it has more empty spaces ) You derive downside counts from Resistance ( the highest row even if it has more empty spaces ) You can also derive counts from the Line ( row ) with the most filled boxes. You should scale a chart with the 1 box reversal and then consolidate that chart with the 3 reversal ( then x 3 makes sense because you are consolidating the horizontal and thereby consolidating the buying and selling waves ) If you start with the 3 reversal you will often have a BOX size to small. The three box reversal is not doing it's job of consolidating the waves on the one box chart.it will tend to just reproduce them. Again; IE: THE SAME ! Once you have your counts. You must place them in context of the other congestion zones. Counts that are not fulfilled tell you just as much as having the count as a target. Counts look forward to what might happen But they look back and qualify what did happen. Counts that do not get fulfilled or are quickly negated are telling you something ! A Study - CAUSE and EFFECT - THE COUNT Motorway
  2. A proper P&F chart .. catches all the changes of the "Market Price" So what is the Market Price ? It is not the movement from Bid to Ask and Back. That is the necessary Bid Ask Bounce Through the Market Price A chart catching the BID ASK Bounce is a valid chart. But not under the proper definition of a P&F chart which always removes Fluctuations that are not of the Market Price. Such a chart looks like a P&F chart but is better called a Tape Reading Chart. It will have extensive sideways movement ( sometimes you need to use with very low priced stocks ) Your aim is to pick up the flow of information and recognize Esp Asymmetrical Information .. That changes the "Market Price" This does exist at the BID Ask Bounce BUT along with a lot of noise A proper P&F chart will filter out the necessary Bouncing through the changes of the Market Price (The market price of interest to YOU.) A good start is to use 2x the Bid Ask Spread, 5x and 10x ( then 20 , 50 , 100 etc ) Then examine the chart to see if it achieving its and your purpose. When you double the box Size everything will change detail by on average a factor of 4 ( 2^2) Time Volume Fluctuations etc ( THAT ARE FILLING YOU BOXES ) Everything ! ( except for the non random aspects ) ( it is interesting to keep say these three charts and note divergence ) This is with One Box reversal charts. which is where you should scale your chart from. then use the three box reversal with each of the Box sizes in coordination ) EG So you decide to use 5X the spread So your charts are a 5 X 1 , 5 x 3 and if you then want the 10 x 1 , 10 X 3 etc Time and Volume will look after themselves Both will scale with resolution So do not scale your chart with Time or Volume (IMO) Scale it with size of moves and the structure of the chart .. ( Hint -->The ratio of Horizontal to vertical) Then you can add and work with Time and Volume ( recommended esp Time ) to the extent you want.. You will only learn by doing and a lot of theoretical things will then make sense. P&F and Tape Reading Charts have a long history With High Priced Stocks etc some thought can be given to using LOG charts defining the Bid Ask in multiples of % ( But no good at all for low priced securities which need a stepped Scale ) Motorway
  3. Time is Important time Frame is not important Time as in Duration is VERY IMPORTANT a P&F chart has an X and Y axis a Bar chart has ALSO an X and Y axis Both charts move through Time. But differently ! As I said I think Time is very important.. Motorway
  4. Something to think about for those who do chose to explore market reality from the perspective of P&F From Peter J Steidlmayer Modern day reinventor(?) of P&F COMPARE to ALEXANDER WHEELAN very dense but very good little text on P&F ! Very Good BUT What He calls Value is from a P&F view really a Difference of Opinion . Consider EVERY BOX on a P&F chart = A difference of Opinion. A trend is sequentially Higher or Lower --> Zones of DIFFERENCES OF OPINION ! consider carefully Unless You Understand Time You Understand NOTHING. Motorway
  5. Do not look at the charts as just a form of breakout method. Look at it in the same terms as market profile. Look at The Horizontal Formations especially.. Your charts will seem to adapt to market time. But they are not adapting .. They are market time. Do not focus just on the static aspects of the chart But the changes in activity as well. Watching the chart FLOW and Build structure is the best teacher. Motorway
  6. Try box size .5 and reversal size 1 As alternate ( depending on your software ) You could try BOX size .25 and reversal 2 Try also Box Size 1 X Reversal 1 (alternate Box size .5 X Reversal 2 ) Should give you nice charts. .25 being the min increment on the instrument. Motorway
  7. The only close that has a higher relative importance is the close of a day. Because it forces those working on very small time Horizons to close positions. Multiples of this Day .. week month YEAR will have also a (less) relative importance. Divisions will have even less relative importance ( but yes, some ) Still all these even are of only relative importance. What has an absolute importance.. IS not the close of a time frame. But the end of a Buying or Selling wave.. Something that is very educative is to draw a 1 box reversal P&F chart. 2x 5x or 10x the bid/ask spread ( depending on the price ) . make sure you use the course of trades ( they are the absolute reality ) and not any H/L of a time framed bar. Then look at what you have drawn Ask what is it that makes the chart change columns ? It is not any time frame or the close of any time frame. it is when buyers and sellers become exhausted . Those tops and bottoms of the alternating columns. Have an Absolute Reality. They have Absolute Position in Space and Time. Just like looking at a Mountain from varying distances. Its top is THE TOP etc Changing the BOX size is not changing time frame it is just changing the distance you are viewing the absolute reality FROM. Motorway
  8. Gary I knew it was a Typo. You have great knowledge and experience ! Often look in at the LTG Wyckoff Archives . Always worthwhile. Great Free Resource for anybody ! Motorway
  9. Volume is Effort Price movement is RESULT A certain price movement ( That seen on the Figure Chart ) is a CAUSE that will have an EFFECT. Without a Cause there is NO EFFECT. Wyckoff Measures a Cause by the number of swings up and down in a trading range. Not by the length of time and not by the amount of volume. ( Hence why the Figure chart appears to not use time and volume ) Volume is always qualified by price movement and time. IF we ask what was that Volume . Then we look at the Price movement. Now consider what draws a figure chart ? Volumes and time do. TRADES A Trade is the only way to get a PRICE for the Figure chart to MOVE to. This is the cause that will have an effect. Each of these swings Up and Down naturally had a certain volume and a certain range. But consider why does a swing Up end and become a swing down ? why does a swing down end and become a swing UP ? Because demand and supply in turn gets exhausted. And this is what matters==> REGARDLESS of the VOLUME or the TIME involved. So what happens with an aggregate of UPs and DOWNs ? of Buying and Selling Waves ( The count across the rows on the Figure Chart ) One or the Other side is Exhausted to a greater extent. Floating Supply is reduced and GATHERED TOGETHER in a way that effects future DEMAND and SUPPLY to some extent, to a greater extent. Again each of these swings Up and Down naturally had a certain volume and a certain range. And this is Effort and Result. All These relate to all the Waves of Buying and Selling. A Bar chart is just a tool to see these Waves cut up into slices of time ( time framed ) But it is the Waves that are the market reality ( and they last as long as they gather a following ( No Time Frames ) A Figure chart cuts the waves up into something else instead of slices of time. Into Discrete units of price movement in their own time. Demand and Supply Effort and Result Cause and Effect Are properties of the Waves does not matter what chart you are using. Motorway
  10. Wyckoff P&F Does not have time in the sense that a vertical bar chart has time. That is the waves of buying and selling are not deformed by cutting them up into slices of time.. A Wyckoff P&F chart is made from the full course of sales and reveals the price path THROUGH the Slices of Time that the Vertical Bars are drawn. A P&F chart IS a PRICE CHART it is a PRICE X PRICE chart. IT is a TWO DIMENSIONAL PRICE CHART moving THROUGH TIME. A Vertical Bar chart is a price x time chart . It is a One Dimensional Price Chart moving through time. Of course the P&F chart can reveal more. Wyckoff states this clearly ==> But you must use the Full Course of SALES and a Suitable BOX size ( NO longer a POINT We do not trade in Eighths anymore but decimals eg a Point was only 8 times the min bid ) The most Important thing to grasp is the Figure Chart is a TWO DIMENSIONAL CHART in the same way Market Profile is a TWO DIMENSIONAL CHART, But without any deformation with Chronological Time and no collapsing into a Bell Curve. Practice will soon reveal that in the main --Time and Volume as used in the bar chart can be dispensed with and clarity gained not LOST. If you are not using the full course of sales this restricts you immensely and is not WYCKOFF P&F. Motorway
  11. Ebb and flow of supply and demand is the ONLY thing that makes a P&F chart move. It is directly drawn by the Composite Man....IN HIS TIME FRAME ( = NO TIME FRAME ) There are sides to Wyckoff.. Eg He used P&F ( with Volume ) for tape reading and short term trading.. He also said that "We would do better " with a figure chart for longer term trading. =>give reliable signals on which direction the market will go in the near future? Yes but it is about Wyckoff's Method .. You will increase the reliability by using all factors including the "time element" and Volume.. The figure chart already does include them ( Why RDW could say we will do better ) But to at any point in time .One or other factor eg Volume could be "vital" Consider that it is Volume that fills a Box ( no trade, no volume, no BOX ) But just like the waves of the Ocean have water in them . It is not the water that makes the Waves. What defines volume and qualifies is The price Movement ( "A fine pair of scales" ) and Time ( changes in activity.. Speeding up slowing Down ) We should think in terms of waves. Motorway
  12. day trading futures Most seem to use linnsoft investor/rt ( you can do some neat things with this using volume as well ) course of sale is best built off one min bars is better than 2 min ;-) I have many charts from people who send me charts involving futures some use BOX size = to the bid increment But I would start with a larger BOX size What size ? the BOX sizes that "counting" the chart quantifies... along with the diagonal lines and open spaces You have then have an adaptive chart drawn directly by the Composite Operator By the Market ..By demand and supply. No Oblivion or Distraction NO tIME distortion Motorway
  13. The Book is OK read But is Not complete as in the title "COMPLETE" it is basically three box reversal breakout method What does it lack ( to be Complete ? ) esp ONE box reversal charting The use of Time ----which is change in activity ( see Alexander Wheelan ) Use of natural trend lines besides the 45 degree lines ( which originate from One BOX Method that is both natural and 45 , Wyckoff used natural) On Gaps you can use dots instead of X and O where there are no actual trades if you want to.. fell out of use... http://www.mta.org/eweb/docs/Issues/08%20-%201980%20May.pdf some info here from page 39 Motorway
  14. I only see 13 Boxes To calculate the price objective on the upside, first add up the number of boxes comprising the first up move after the bottom = 13 P&F is a REAL TIME CHART KEY point changing time frames changes everything But changing scale in real time . Changes nothing. The events that make up history stay in proportion... The Fluctuations = Market Events = Unfolding Probabilities "The new high on Tuesday is treated like the new-high on Thursday in p&f" Because the reference point is the fluctuations and they are as they are When We measure with a ruler and not a clock. Real Time is something else it is not the tic toc of the clock.. From the Book--> This is the start of understanding the why of P&F. Real Time , Broken Time , Market Time INTRINSIC TIME.... Motorway
  15. It is Stock JMAT in LONDON (Johnson Matthey ) It is page 113 an example from Complete Guide to P&F Charting Henrich Weber & Kermit Zeig I only see 13 Boxes in the marked column not 14 as is in the text... I thought I recognized the format.. The book gives a good simple answer to the WHY of P&F and what is distorting about time However it mistakes a trading method with charting method being just about three box reversal breakouts Motorway
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