Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
MightyMouse
-
Content Count
2354 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
1
Posts posted by MightyMouse
-
-
FXeco,Good call.
We need more professional experts.
I am not an expert (anymore)... but, fwiw, I’ve been saying the Euro is trash since before it was 1.56 vs USD and have taken oodles and oodles of USD out of the market applying that bias... and see no ‘reason’ to drop that bias (yet). The longs I do in the Euro are 1/10 the size of shorts, etc...
Re: “nobody knows what’s in the Trump’s head and how many surprises he prepared for us.” Nobody?
Do you know his opinion about the Brexit?
ZDO, et al,
There is only one thing in Trump's head. It is the only thing he knows how to do and it was the very first thing he said he would do: To fix the American brand because it is broken. Fixing the American Brand is what will "Make America Great Again". He wants corps to bring their business back, to keep them from leaving, and to make America the place to domicile your business if you are looking for a place to establish yourself.
Given the above, and the potential success and failure of each of the admins "improved" policies, lays a sea of opportunities for those with vision, balls, and a buck.
-
As a caveat to what I've said...I may end up liking the guy, but in the aggregate... from what I have seen...its going to be a hard sell for me...
To DJT... prove me wrong (I'll make money either way)....
Good fortune, good trading, good times... bring it Mr. Precedent...
jpennybags,
Trump is not politically correct.
Trump is not conventional.
Most of what the world knows about Trump they nether saw nor heard with their own eyes and ears; instead, it was crafted by the liberal media.
Trump is the most successful person to enter the White house as POTUS.He has had businesses that have gone bankrupt. Neat trick to still be a billionaire. As a trader one must respect his ability to take risk without losing it all.
As a far as one could be qualified to be POTUS before being POTUS, Trump is the most qualified we have seen, or, using others as benchmarks of qualification, he is overqualified.
"Oh yeah? He'll see how hard it is when he is finally sworn in." Trump will be underwhelmed.
We (USA), under the DJT regime, will have rising interest rates, deficits, and GDP. All 3 normally indicate higher volatility in markets. The rest of the world will feel the ripples.
Traders will get rich. The liberal media won't know this or share this.
-
side note re pneumonia"pneumonia" is a pre-pared lie ... so she can continue on as a brave girl in recovery ... with a free pass to a scaled back itinerary
immo it is subcortical vascular dementia --- not pretty...
billary for president!
...
https://jonrappoport.wordpress.com/2016/09/12/hillary-dropping-out-of-the-race-no-longer-a-fantasy/
I was thinking it might be a leffist lie to prepare for a possible substitute if wikileaks had more damning information about her.
-
I woke up this morning, scratched my ass, and thought: "there is great potential in this new day"...(1) We have Janet Yellen speaking at Jackson Hole (always a money making opportunity when the queen stands and delivers... I did alright today; played it nicely); (2) I mowed the lawn yesterday ahead of the rains (always a good thing to stay up with the chores); (3) Checked my phone, and had received a text message from my daughter with an invitation for dinner tomorrow (way cool). I am a simple man; my pleasures come easily...
And then... Fucking Yikes!
I would not venture to defend Mr. Zdo... I see no reason... it's an open forum. What I will say though: it is interesting to read his posts. Does he write this stuff off the cuff? I would say he does; talk about "disjointed" writing (well, fuck yes). Even though I may be "the one in a thousand", am I a disciple? Well, no... but I have come to appreciate and find merit in his point of view (thanks for playing "the disciple card").
I don't know where you are headed with your latest bend [possibly "bender" is more appropriate (ask any alcoholic for the definition)], but this seems a bit over wrought.
For the record: I will be out of the office for the remainder of the weekend (enjoying it). My press agent won't be available either... come on man... really?
The residual effects of your morning routine could lead to unintended consequences and possibly a dysentery death. Thoroughly clean your hands after you scratch your ass and before you think or type.
-
Great decision by Britain. Nothing bad of any consequence will come from it. Much good things will come from in in the near future. Smart decision.Some short term pain, maybe. Long term UK will be better off. Smaller is always better and less risky.
-
They use an incredible amount of leverage (look at bank stocks roe and roa) beyond the next time there is another disaster that they need to be bailed out of, losing more money than they made since the last disaster. This is true in spite of the cheating, insider trading, and other, categorically, unethical practices. It's not about employing profitable strategies; instead, it's about putting as much money in your pocket right now with no concern for tomorrow.
You'd be shocked to see how carelessly these mega-$bilion institutions are managed. Pointing it out would get you fired.
-
I peek in once in a whileWow! A Freakin reunion! Where is SIUYA?
-
You would not only need to create a speculation approach that works in the long run, but you would also need to use it flawlessly in particular market conditions. This is what would let you appreciate the merit of such trading approach.OK... Maybe not flawlessly I'm not perfect, are you?
Of course you continue to trades every new setup as long as you are winning. When your losses exceed a predetermined amount, you may stop trading for the day if you are an intraday trader, or stop trading for the week if you are a swing trader, or stop for the month if you are a position trader. This is the best way to avoid continuous losses in a losing streak. By the time you resume trading, it is probable that you would stumble on a winning streak. For example, I stop trading for the month if I go down more than 7%.
Wrong. You continue to trade every opportunity that is presented. The market doesn't care about your last trade(s). If, according to your analysis each trade has the same probability of success, then previous trades are irrelevant unless you didn't follow your plan.
Conclusion
It is normal to become emotional after a losing streak. However, veterans remain calm in a losing streak. They believe in their strategies. They simply know that a winning streak is around the corner,
You just contradicted yourself again. If they remain calm in a losing streak this implies they continue- not stop....doesn't it?
and they remain faithful to their trading rules.
Which means trading each opportunity -not stopping.
This has become their second nature, so easy. This is not easy for noobs who tend to ignore the realities of trading. Market wizards experience losses triumphantly
:rofl: Not in public...surely?.... and if not in public, please explain how you know they 'experience losses triumphantly'
Explain how they are triumphant while at the same time they remain calm-
However, veterans remain calm in a losing streak.
Flash from the past. Hope all is well.
-
dats a spam good deal ... course you could just buy a used BP book...It really is! How con I get involved?
-
... if one talks sensically in an insane asylum?This is a mainstream site. Members of this site use and regurge the ‘report’ and talking head info spoon fed to them by the psy-op. They “collectively choose wishful thinking”.
One way of saying same = in here, normalcy bias runs rampant. In my view, this is best said another way - This site is experiencing a collective psychosis... along with the rest of the developed world.
This “wishful thinking" has been an integral driver of the "recovery" 2009-2015: where asset bubbles aren't bubbles, central bank policies are brilliantly successful, unemployment has dropped to levels of full employment, ... and zirp/nirp will ‘stimulate’ banks to lend ... as if ... etc, etc. ... cash is king and we're going to go cashless. With a straight face, one of our most grounded (sane?) members recently said this global situation had not been a crisis until now... because it had not begun to be collectively perceived as a crisis until now.
What I hear is “we’re all dead already; don’t disturb us.”
Fear. TL illustrates traders in fear... either reduced to silence ...or attempting to suppress any ‘deviance’ from the ‘meme’ by shaping others to show ‘good sense’ and align with the ‘psychosis’... unwilling or unable to see the mainstream as an intentional “riddle” ... but
D. Blount
...
For this ‘psychosis’, catastrophic consequences are guaranteed. The matrix has created ‘problems’ that only collapse can solve. How convenient.
look at how this thread is carrying this site... and how ... this thread hangs on the hopes of paper gold.
...
It would be cool if a Craig Nelson were around someday to tell this story like he told that
story at http://www.amazon.com/dp/145166043X/?tag=saloncom08-20 ...
:missy:
The market is an asylum. S&P trading in 2007-2008.
I completely agree that CC is guaranteed. The greatest, but not the only unknown is when. Then what will CC look like when it happens? PM, up for certain. But, will other things go down by more than PM goes up?
We can assume that we know. But what we know is only a narrative of one form or another.
-
Good lord bob you are projecting / making shit up in your head. Besides, if I remember correctly, I’ve explained it in this thread before.I started trading futures in the mid 80’s. Young gun... first trade was 20 contracts of 30 yr bonds... 32.50 per tick... and 2 full point travel in the first hour was routine in those days. Was live in ’87 - remember it like it was yesterday. Up every morning at 5 am PST for the currency opening... a cotton mouthed adrenal wreck. Through the 80’s I blew up several times... my own money, opm, managed money... stuck with it. Then I kicked ass trading ndx futures through the 90’s.
On the advice of a friend - who was an Austrian econ. type, real EW master ( ie EW as a social, not price chart, phenom) who taught me the trajectory of fiat, I started heavily accumulating physical gold in the mid to late 90’s ... back when it ‘really’ was a worthless relic of the past and was going to be that way from then on... (you ever wonder why it didn’t stay that way? Like now?) .
Anyways, my average cost per oz is way way way below your 1400 figure. Across the last decade I have gradually traded the physical gold for physical silver... so re “You actually own the Gold.” No, now I actually own the Silver!
* If I remember correctly, I posted somewhere in here that I was putting hedge on SI the day before it peaked in Apr 2011. (maybe you shouldn’t try, but get someone to) Do the math - I’ve got cushion. I hedge for fun. When I put on short futures contracts to hedge, it is really just locking it in relative to USD. I (over) hedge to pay the fkn taxes. Not “trying to recoup a loss” because with physicals, you don’t have to worry about purchasing power variation that much... an oz of PM will buy about the same amount of goods and services now as ever... Try saying that about your fkn fiat dollars or krutons or whatever fiat you’re brainwashed by... especially in light they are going to start charging you interest on your deposits...
I've intimated several times recently an anticipation of a bounce in gold... EUR bounce post... also if I remember correctly, I questioned why you bailed so easily on buying mining stocks a while back... Basically this current hedging is preparing for this to be a short lived bounce.
"The release of Genetically Modified Deflation has been postponed over and over... " zdo.
If it's not a short lived bounce, no big deal. My SI is just as valuable to me at 14 as is it is at 48...
Re: “ if Gold goes to $1300 you will be stopped out.” No, if gold goes into the 1300 - 1330ish range and acts a certain ways I will stop out of the 25% of the (over)hedge that will be on by that point. ... and start preparing to put it back on elsewhen....
*A long term ratio trade between gold and silver is the best PM trade- imo. It’s not price sensitive. Have discussed that several times in here too.
... also discussed previously, I am building a long scale trade in far far out months of Crude. fwiw, It’s not a ‘perfect’ scale and it’s not on the 00 handles, closer to every 3rd handle... But, in the meantime with much larger size in other accounts, I have been shorting the sht out of crude for months ... in a way (over) hedging there too.
Am just plain trading in ndx’s... it's not hedging - because I have been out of stocks for a long time now. Not looking for a ‘crash’ in stocks at this time... more of a slow boil down... taking the price down in small chunks, giving you a few back , then taking another small chunk... my cycle work for ndx’s was one day off early last Nov.
Fx trading is fully automated ~24/6. Quite active... almost aggressive trading... but prudent sizing .... no hedging there either.
I luv you bro and I got to tell you - the story in your head is messed... and not just the one about me.
Seems like you had a good time.
Also seems like you have largely been in the right place at the right time, what is a few blow ups amongst friends, but I don't have the details nor do I query your integrity.
I will state that a hedge, partial or not, neutralizes, partially or not, the underlying position for the periods that one is hedged. Hedging, then, a good, I suppose, becomes a bad if the hedge is entered at the wrong time or entered wrong too many times.
A blow up, ineradicably in my mind, is not something that you recover from. You can only do it once; hence, you never blew up if you are still here.
-
The Daily Bell - Central Bank Soap Opera Hides Financial Globalizationbtw imo the sentence near the end that reads
"The idea is to make sure that a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "
should read
"The idea is to make sure that YOU BELIEVE a handful of "special" individuals with the appropriate academic backgrounds can manage the world's entire, complex economy. "
:helloooo:
... no one in here has convinced me you don't believe...
"They" busy themselves with meetings and conferences, impress themselves with their credentials then take credit for positive things that happen and explain away events that were not positive. As in, " there was no way that we could have seen that coming".
-
bobc,fwiw, I totally understood mm...
(but he didn't tell us why he wouldn't want to be short...)
zdo
PS ... and btw, we have no "workers" on this forum :rofl:
Shorts are covering. So, I don't want to be short gold. I can't get myself to be long anything other than equities, which I am no longer long. A perception of a crisis will lead to many other short opportunities.
Gold was a very tough market to make money short for me. I netted some overall but got chopped up. Risk vs Reward, I should have stayed away.
-
MM,re "brewing"
Only one question popped into my head after reading your post - it was
Why haven’t you been saying that for 8 years now?
Of Two Minds - Why We Won't Have a "Lehman Moment" in the 2016 Crash
Of Two Minds - Stupor Bowl 2016
Of Two Minds - The Global Economy Could Fall Farther and Faster Than Pundits Expect
and re: "but I do not want to be short right now"
Why not ???
:helloooo:
zdo
The perception of crisis was missing since 2009
I feel the perception of crisis is rising. I am not suggesting that we will have a crisis.
I have very strong opinions about the 2008 crisis that do not match up with the well known narrative.
-
I think we may have a crisis brewing. Corporate defaults are turning up, consumer credit is at a high, consumer defaults are turning up, the deal mill has come to a grinding halt, corporate credit lines are being denied. If this continues, gold becomes a long play. There isn't a whole lot that qe4 can promise but we will see more qe. I have no position but I do not want to be short right now.
-
I have been retired for 6 years and my IRA has not been doing well and has been managed by a professional money manager. I would like to take my IRA over and help it grow. I need help to make this happen. All ideas would be appreciated.Thanks
Bob
You are not giving enough information, and probably shouldn't in an open thread, on your particular situation to be able to answer your question. I will share with you that I do not think that putting your retirement money at risk when you are retired is a good idea at all if you need the money in the IRA to live on.
-
A lot of money can be made catching the knife the right way. It can be messy if one catches it the wrong way.Anyone need butterfly bandages?
-
Subtitle = Please take PM’s lower... much lower.As ya’ll know by now -
I call all that dollar centric, fiat bull
Ever be squeezin an already squeezed lemon? There is more..., but...
“...a strong, good looking trend... under the surface is becoming the weakest trend...” zdo
Bottom line / the point of this post
(...even though ‘charts’ do look weak ie slightly probable it really is on a “dead cat bounce” now )
I personally feel quite comfortable being on the long side of this mess...
in light of
> how just a tiny shift in the collective ‘narratives’ could drop this fkn PM bear dead in its tracks...and
in light of
> that buying PM’s at any ‘now’ is never really calling a bottom - if you can get beyond USD bull centric...
> and ...beyond ‘valuating’ it...
> beyond... (paraphasing CHSmith) A meltdown of China's phantom wealth triggers a meltdown in global phantom assets
> beyond...
> beyond...
> to ‘price insensitive’
...
Finally - energy , copper, FiaX, etc ... have been such easier / preferable shorts for me over the last n months...
and since early Nov. 15 been having big, fun time “calling tops”mm in indexes (yep thought I remembered an
post about it... http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/12054-gold-bullish-bearish-219.html#post200321)... ie many better places to leverage dollars for returns now than short PM’s.
... long PM’s is a good place to be...
“We project in straight lines, when reality is cyclical. “ Harry Dent
Full disclosure, I was short, added 2 times and got all of it stopped out at 1076 the first time it moved back into the 1070's. Nothing more than a cost covering gain. And, I haven't bothered since. Go big or go home.
-
Reversals can be clearly defined, I just do not view the market as a knife. To have continual confirmation in the matter of interpreting market movement, I just cannot make that comparison.I do believe that there is an overwhelmingly large percentage of people who're involved in the markets that have no business being involved. Their lack of knowledge, and desire to understand what they're doing is what allows the market to be viewed as a knife. I would say that it is them that is the knife, their own worst enemy if you will.
But I fully agree that mini has been incredible since August.
Axiom
A lot of money can be made catching the knife the right way. It can be messy if one catches it the wrong way.
-
These are great days for trading the emini. Knife catching is more of a low-volatility game and will get you killed in this market. A better entry is to use Sell and Buy stops to enter into the direction of a move. Don't bother trying to catch a top or bottom.
-
-
are you being facetious?That is why 2 dimensional conversations suck.
I am certain none of us want to be around after the next carnage- with or without assets.
How about 2029 ?
-
And btw, the ‘supply’ you consistently reference across your posts in this thread is paper supply. You’re almost sure to go HATIN me on this ‘manipulation’ aspect ... but
When was the most recent authentic price discovery in silver?
The last tick -- or -- 30 years ago?
I’m almost positive your perspective is solidly ‘last tick’ and it most likely will stay that way until you get beyond
the USD purchasing power of AU ... “ how prices have dropped...”
...beyond ...
mm
Want some more ::razzn:?
When you are ready “to redefine several notions”
, then ... 30 years ago...
https://www.sprottmoney.com/blog/thirty-years-of-zero-price-discovery-in-silver-jeff-nielson.html
zdo
Decent article. I will buy the philosophical perspective, but I wouldn't buy it to be used since it won't a make me a dime; in fact, it will lose me many dimes. It doesn't matter for the here and now what the price of silver could or should be.
The PM derivatives markets are HUGE. Oh yes paper supply, but that is only one side of it. There is unprecedented demand. Media driven demand. As long as there is demand, the supply will keep coming. Jean-Batiste Say need not worry.
Everyone knows the free world is going to collapse and everyone has purchased paper PMs to hedge because it is the smart thing to do. They don't need physicals; paper will do because they know that when the world (USA) collapses, the Fed will step in again and rescue the day.
A busy marketing manager of a local mid size corporation, who busies his day on 13 to 21 very intense conference calls, is in on the coming move in PMs. He has bought paper PM both directly or as a fraction of a well diversified value fund in his 401(k) and IRA account. He is fortunate to have both and asstute money managler and financial revisor to look after his best interests.
It may very well be that the money manager made the trade because he got titties and beer from his pal at Morgan the night before, or that this sale gave the financial advisor enough sales to win the trip to Hawaii, but both are offering sound, prudent advice.
All the philosophising in the world about where PM prices should or would be will not change the fact that if one is long silver or gold, he is currently on the wrong side of the market. One who is long is betting the side of the sucker.
2 dimensional conversations suck.
-
You and only you should stay short Gold... long USDhttps://srsroccoreport.com/death-of-paper-gold-silver-the-data-proves-it/
couldn't resist
Happy New Year ALL
zdo
ZDo, HNY. I like a lot of your articles. This one is horrible. It is not horrible simply because I disagree. I disagree with a lot of your good articles too.
It is fascinating how prices have dropped while demand increased. The author has to redefine several notions.
Gold Bullish or Bearish
in Market News & Analysis
Posted · Edited by MightyMouse
True the fed has increased the money supply consistently since the 1920's. The net effect, to the government, is a decreasing value of the money that we borrow and never pay back, but are supposed to pay back.