[Soultrader]

Place your votes!!!

[atto]

Interestingly enough, Intrade has Obama as a 10:1 favorite. We'll see, we'll see..

[Hlm]

It's usually the biggest pawn that wins, so this time around I think (even though they are close) Obama will win. I would find it quite amusing to see the Democrats reaction to McCain winning though. However, McCain wining would ruin my risk/reward theory of the Republicans giving up the next four years on purpose to take back eight years the next time around.

[brownsfan019]

Should be interesting to see how the markets reacts w/ all this.

IMO the market rebounds on a McCain win and flat-lines/drops w/ an Obama win. Just my

[thrunner]

It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

[atto]

Originally Posted by thrunner »

It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

I'd argue that this could accurately be defined as an Obama rally (and even an uptrend!).

[brownsfan019]

Originally Posted by thrunner »

It is interesting how easily some pundits/traders will assign market movements to political events, calling this a Obama ralley or McCain ralley. The market will move where the majority thinks it will move and the majority says the market is overbought now and may stay overbought for a little while longer until they have an excuse to run it up or down again, whoever wins or loses.

So whoever gets elected will have zero impact on the markets? It's pure coincidence?



I disagree 100%.

And just to be clear... your hypothesis says the market may go up or down, right?

[thrunner]

Inverse correlation of SP500 to Intrade Obama does not imply causation. One may propose that the SP500 is down because Obama is getting elected or that if SP500 is higher, McCain could have been elected, both could be valid hypotheses, but both could be wrong. Both may have nothing to do with the ultimate outcome of the election or the economy.

No, BF, there is no hypothesis or prediction on my part on market direction; just pointing out the lack of causation.