[atto]

As a full disclosure, I generally lean on the side of pacifism and non-interventionalism. It is my opinion that in the majority of time, messing around militarily causes many more problems than good. I've taken a good amount of interest in the conflict/war between Russia and Georgia. Media sources originally called it the "South Ossetia War", but it looks like it's a full on conflict between Russia and Georgia now.

For those of you who haven't followed the conflict, it started (subject to opinion) when Georgia militarily entered South Ossetia, an area on the north side of recognized Georgia, in response to alleged bombings in Georgian villages. South Ossetia seceded from Georgia in the 90's, and has been in a cease fire since. However, no members of the UN have recognized South Ossetia as a sovereign state.

Russia entered Georgia on Aug 8, playing "big brother". Since then, the two countries have waged military, propaganda, and cyber war. The city of Gori has fallen into Russian control, and Georgian troops have withdrawn towards the capital. Some reports are saying Russia does not intend to take the capital.

This is potentially a big deal since the US has historically helped Georgia. Additionally, some reports today indicate that US helped transport Georgian troops from Iraq along with supplies. This could get messy if peace talks don't go well. Russia has maintained that they are only helping South Ossetia, while Georgia has claimed this is an invasion. The death counts vary wildly, and are probably largely inaccurate.

Russia's interest may be oil, since there is a large pipeline running through the area. However, this is pure speculation from Georgian sources.

Has anyone else been following this? What's your opinion?

[atto]

Largely, the international community has been against Russia's actions, as they have gone quite far past "peace keeping" operations.

Dick Cheney, quoted from yesterday: "Russian aggression must not go unanswered, and that its continuation would have serious consequences for its relations with the United States, as well as the broader international community." (Source)

[thrunner]

Unfortunately, this appears to be a planned misadventure by Georgia's president, Mikheil Saakashvili, to fulfill his election promise of taking back the seceded regions. He was counting on a lack of reponse by Russia during the Olympics - he was wrong.
This is not to say that Georgia has no claims to the seceded regions, but this was a miscalculated way of trying to get them back. US and NATO should not get involve in this.

Yeah, i read that analysis here too:

Washington Post: Mikhail Gorbachev - A Path to Peace in the Caucasus

[Soultrader]

This might be off-topic but I find it interesting how this happened smack at the start of the Olympics. The world is so focused on the Olympics that this war receives minimal exposure especially in Japan. I doubt many people here are aware of what is going on in Georgie at the moment. Also, funny how Bush is attending the China-US basketball game during this conflict.

A friend of mine had an interesting idea. He mentioned that this could be a politically and economically staged war. Georgie would only benefit from Russia's economy if Russia took over. Hence the leaders are all involved and perhaps US is aware of it?

[atto]

Originally Posted by Soultrader »

A friend of mine had an interesting idea. He mentioned that this could be a politically and economically staged war. Georgie would only benefit from Russia's economy if Russia took over. Hence the leaders are all involved and perhaps US is aware of it?

Not sure. I've heard some second hand sources (which is better than you can get on the news) who have said this is very real. Georgia doesn't really benefit from being invaded, imho. Georgia is a soverign country with a slightly different ally base. The speculation I've heard is that the Georgia president used the Olympics to try to make this as small issue as possible. Whoops.

Now, why Russia cares so much is another issue...

Originally Posted by atto »

Not sure. I've heard some second hand sources (which is better than you can get on the news) who have said this is very real. Georgia doesn't really benefit from being invaded, imho. Georgia is a soverign country with a slightly different ally base. The speculation I've heard is that the Georgia president used the Olympics to try to make this as small issue as possible. Whoops.

Now, why Russia cares so much is another issue...

Unifying the ethnic Russians of South Ossetia with the Russian province of North Ossetia, I suppose.

And gaining control of the oil pipeline that runs thru Georgia too.

[GammaJammer]

Originally Posted by atto »

Since then.......and cyber war.

Out of interest what do you mean here - that it's all over the internet? or that they're trying to hack each other / send viruses to tank commanders' laptops, that kinda thing?