[Soultrader]

Interesting article on CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/11/...sts/index.html

Couple of questions I have.

How will this impact the markets in 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, etc...?

Do you think the markets have already incorporated this news?

Any thoughts on the short term and long term future of the markets?

[namstrader]

Hey Soultrader,

A great book to read about these predictions of the future is "The Black Swan" The Impact of the Highly Improbable by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Reading it has opened my eyes to all the experts out there that predict with such certainty. You have probably heard of the "Minsky moment" that refers to the economist that is getting lots of attention now for explaining the whole credit crunch situation we are in now. It is the lowered awareness of the possibility of problems. The narrative fallacy is to be avoided and to favor experimentation over storytelling. Nobody knows when those long fat tails will occur.

Also, for some other great reading go to a website called STRATFOR. There is an article called Iraq:Positive Signs by George Friedman dated November 13, 2007, that will inform you of all the forces interacting in Iraq right now.

http://www.stratfor.com/