Jump to content

Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.

  • Welcome Guests

    Welcome. You are currently viewing the forum as a guest which does not give you access to all the great features at Traders Laboratory such as interacting with members, access to all forums, downloading attachments, and eligibility to win free giveaways. Registration is fast, simple and absolutely free. Create a FREE Traders Laboratory account here.

OlmsteadOptions

Options Strategy: Earnings Report Protection

Was this information useful to you?  

13 members have voted

  1. 1. Was this information useful to you?

    • Yes, very. I learned something useful.
      7
    • Interesting, but nothing I can make use of.
      2
    • No. I learned something, but I can't use it.
      2
    • No, I did not learn anything.
      2


Recommended Posts

Shareholders are naturally concerned as the date of an earnings report for their favorite stock draws near. Stocks often experience their biggest declines in price after an earnings report fails to meet the expectations of investors. The recent price action in Apple Inc (AAPL) is a perfect illustration. This widely held stock lost more than 12% of its value following its most recent report.

 

Now that many stocks have weekly options, there are new strategies available for earnings report protection. Weekly options can provide low-cost, short-term insurance to lock in a minimum sale price of a stock that is potentially vulnerable to an earnings setback.

It has always been possible to use monthly put options to protect the price of a stock through the date of the company’s earnings report. The problem with monthly puts is that they can be quite expensive, particularly when the options expiration date is substantially later than the earnings report. Weekly options are cheaper and offer more flexibility in providing short-term protection.

 

Not all stocks have weekly options, but when they are available, it is prudent to know how to employ them to circumvent an earnings report disaster. There is a cheap but effective strategy to protect the stock price through its earnings report by using a combination of weekly options. It is easiest to present this protective strategy as a combination of two separate trades.

 

The first trade is the purchase of a weekly put option that expires on the closest Friday following the earnings report. For every 100 shares of stock, buy one contract with a strike price that is slightly below the current stock price. While this short-term, protective put provides for a minimum sale price of the stock, it may still seem relatively expensive because option prices often inflate ahead of an earnings report. A second trade is implemented to lower the cost basis of the protective put.

 

The second trade uses weekly options that expire one week prior to the expiration date of the protective put. For every 100 shares of stock, sell one call contract with a strike price above the current stock price. Also sell an equal number of put contracts with a strike price that is one strike below that of the protective put. The premium received from the sale of these options will substantially lower the cost basis of the protective put.

 

It is typically best to do these two trades about two weeks prior to the earnings report date. It is important to understand what has been achieved with these trades. The long stock together with the short call represents a covered call position. The long protective put together the short put represents a diagonal time spread. There is no margin requirement associated with either of these positions.

 

Since the stock price tends to remain in a relatively narrow range prior to the earnings date, it is expected that both of the short options will expire worthless on the Friday prior to the earnings report date. This leaves the protective put in place for full effect through the following week.

 

If the stock price falls significantly after the earnings report, there are two alternatives available to the shareholder. For those who are no longer interested in owning the stock, it can be liquidated at the strike price associated with the protective put. Some shareholders may want to maintain their stock position even after a pull back in price, in which case the protective put can be sold for a profit to offset most of the lost value in the stock. If the stock price soars after the report, the protective put will expire worthless, but there is no cap on the profit that can be achieved by the stock.

 

Some comments are in order regarding the unexpected cases in which the stock price will have moved sufficiently (up or down) during the week before the earnings report that one of the short options will be in-the-money as its expiration date arrives. If the stock price is above the strike price of the short call, the shareholder can either buy back the short call and wait for the earning report or allow the stock to be called away for a profit. If the stock price is below the strike price of the short put, the short call will expire worthless and the diagonal put spread can be sold for a profit. In this latter case, the stock will no longer be protected through the earnings report.

 

 

 

 

 

Dr. Olmstead can be found at http://www.olmsteadoptions.com, an on-line options trading site, centered around options education and trading strategies he’s developed. He is Professor of Applied Mathematics at Northwestern University, author of the popular and highly-praised options book, Options for the Beginner and Beyond (2006) and former chief strategist for The Options Professor on-line newsletter, distributed by Zacks.com and Forbes.com.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.


  • Topics

  • Posts

    • Date: 29th March 2024. GBPUSD Analysis: The Pound Trades Higher But For How Long? The global Stocks Markets are closed due to Easter Friday (Good Friday). The NASDAQ continued to follow the sideways trend while other indices again rose. The SNP500 reaches an all-time high, but the NASDAQ remains under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple. The Euro continues to trade lower against all major currencies including the US Dollar, Euro and Japanese Yen. The British Pound is the best performing currency during this morning’s Asian session. However, investors are largely fixing their attention on this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. GBPUSD – The Pound Trades Higher but For How Long? The GBPUSD is slightly higher than the day’s open and is primary due to the Pound’s strong performance. At the moment, the British Pound is increasing in value against all major currencies. However, the US Dollar Index is also trading 0.10% higher and for this reason there is a slight conflict here. If investors wish to avoid this conflict, the EURUSD is a better option. This is because, the Euro depreciating against the whole currency market avoiding the “tug-of-war” scenario. The GBPUSD is trading slightly lower than the 2-month’s average price and is trading at 49.10 on the RSI. For this reason, the price of the exchange is at a “neutral” level and is signalling neither a buy nor a sell. The day’s price action and future signals are possibly likely to be triggered by this afternoon’s Core PCE Price Index. Analysts expect the Core PCE Price Index to read 0.3% which is slightly lower than the previous month but will result in the annual figure remaining at 2.85%. The PCE rate is different to the inflation rate and the Fed aims for a rate between 1.5% to 2.00%. Therefore, even if the annual rate remains at 2.85%, as analysts expect, it would be too high for the Fed. If the rate increases, even if only slightly, the US Dollar can again renew bullish momentum and the stock market can come under pressure. This includes the SNP500. Investors are focused on the publication of data on the UK’s gross domestic product (GDP) for the last quarter of 2023: the quarterly figures decreased by 0.3%, and 0.2% over the past 12-months. This confirms the state of a shallow recession and the need for stimulation. The data, combined with a cooling labor market and a steady decline in inflation, increase the likelihood that the Bank of England will soon begin interest rate cuts. In the latest meeting the Bank of England representatives did not see any members vote for a hike. USA500 – The SNP500 Rises to New Highs, But Cannot Hold Onto Gains! The price of the SNP500 rises to an all-time high, before correcting 0.33% and ending the day slightly lower than the open price. Nonetheless, the index performs better than the NASDAQ which came under pressure from Tesla, Meta and Apple which hold a higher weight compared to the SNP500. For the SNP500, these 3 stocks hold a weight of 9.25%, whereas the 3 stocks make up 14.63% of the NASDAQ. The SNP500 is also supported by ExxonMobil’s gains due to higher energy prices. The market will remain closed on Friday due to Easter. However, the market will reopen on Monday for the US and investors can expect high volatility. Investors will also need to take into consideration how the PCE Price Index and the changed value of the US Dollar is likely to affect the stock market next week. Always trade with strict risk management. Your capital is the single most important aspect of your trading business. Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report. Click HERE to access the full HFM Economic calendar. Want to learn to trade and analyse the markets? Join our webinars and get analysis and trading ideas combined with better understanding on how markets work. Click HERE to register for FREE! Click HERE to READ more Market news. Michalis Efthymiou Market Analyst HFMarkets Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.
    • MT4 is good and will be good until their parent company keep updating the software, later mt4 users will have to switch to mt5.
    • $SOUN SoundHound AI stock at 5.91 support area , see https://stockconsultant.com/?SOUN
    • $ELEV Elevation Oncology stock bull flag breakout watch , see https://stockconsultant.com/?ELEV
    • $AVDX AvidXchange stock narrow range breakout watch above 13.32 , see https://stockconsultant.com/?AVDX
×
×
  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use.